swiss energiewende - quo vadis? 2014
DESCRIPTION
Keynote at New Energy Investor Summit in Zurich, May 2014 http://www.institutional-money.com/index.php?id=1486&view=single&number=1TRANSCRIPT
Swiss Energiewendequo vadis?
powergreen
Bastien Girod, New Energy Investor Summit 2014
nuclearnor fossil
no
High level:
H1: Energiewende cannot be stopped.
H2: The old nuclear plants will try to delay.
Technologies:
H3: Solar: Integrate and optimize.
H4: Wind: Local advantage.
H5: Hydro: Advantage for flexible and ecological.
Regulatory environment:
H6: Too much hot air in certificate of origin.
H7: Market liberalization CAN be a chance.
H8: Electricity agreement not decisive.
Changing core beliefsChanging economics
H1: The Energiewende cannot bestopped.
www.thegreenmarketoracle.com
2001 Electricity market 2013 Energy strategy
Suter & Markard 2014
H2: Nuclear phase-out is the keychallenge for the Energiewende.
Source: «Erläuternder Bericht zur Energiestrategie 2050 (Vernehmlassungsvorlage)» des BR, 2012.
2064: Leibstadt
H3: Solar: «Integrate and optimize» (instead of «connect and forget»).
Hirt 2013 The market value of variable renewables
H4: wind + local support =power!
Rhine hydropower, popular vote 2014,
canton Schaffhausen:
H5: Hydro-power: Flexible andecological instead of run-of-the river.
Ja
Nein
Power (GW) not energy (GWh) required
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Po
wer
[M
W]
Pumped hydro (prod.)
Pumped hydro (storage)
PV - pumped hydro
Import
CHP/IGCC
Wind
Hydro power (storage)
Hydro power (river)
Nuclear
Load
Too much hot air
H6: Current design of certificate of origin (HKN) brings little to no value.
No reward for renewable flexibility
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Po
wer
[M
W]
Pumped hydro (prod.)
Pumped hydro (storage)
PV - pumped hydro
Import
CHP/IGCC
Wind
Hydro power (storage)
Hydro power (river)
Nuclear
Load
Innovation (e.g. Smart Buildings)
H7: Market liberalization CAN be a chance for the Energiewende
horse-trade for cost internalization
H8: Bilateral electricity agreement not decisive for the Swiss Energiewende.
High level:
H1: Energiewende cannot be stopped.
H2: The old nuclear plants will try to delay.
Technologies:
H3: Solar: Integrate and optimize.
H4: Wind: Local advantage.
H5: Hydro: Advantage for flexible and ecological.
Regulatory environment:
H6: Too much hot air in certificate of origin.
H7: Market liberalization CAN be a chance.
H8: Electricity agreement not decisive.
