six party talks
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TRANSCRIPT
Should the U.S. press for
a return to the
Six Party Talks?
Meredith Lamberti
What are the Six Party Talks?
Members: United States Russia Japan China North Korea South Korea
Goal: to end the North Korean nuclear program through a negotiation process.
Timeline 1994: North Korea/U.S. agreement
North Korea pledges to freeze and eventually dismantle nuclear weapons in return for 2 power-producing nuclear reactors
1998: North Korea fires a missile over Japan, into the Pacific Ocean
1999: North Korea pledges to freeze long-range missile tests
2000: North Korea threatens to restart nuclear program
June 2001: North Korea warns it will reconsider lifting the freeze on missile testing
July 2001: US State Department reports that North Korea is developing long-range missiles.
Jan. 2002: President Bush labels North Korea, Iran, & Iraq an “Axis of Evil”
Timeline Sept. 2002: North Korea pledges with Japan to extend the freeze on missile
testing
Oct. 2002: North Korea tells US delegation it has a second covert nuclear program
Jan. 2003: North Korea says it will withdraw from Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
April 2003: US, China, and North Korea announce talks in Beijing
April 2003: North Korea announces it has nuclear weapons and may test, export, or use them depending upon US actions
Aug. 2003: North Korea joins the first round of Six Party Talks
Feb. 2004: Second round of Six Party Talks
May 2004: North Korea reaffirms it’s missile testing freeze in talks with Japan
Timeline
June 2004: Third round of Six Party Talks
Sept. 2004: North Korea threatens not to attend the fourth round of talks
Feb. 2005: North Korea announces it has nuclear weapons
May 2005: North Korea fires short-range missile into Sea of Japan
July – Aug. 2005: Fourth round of Six Party Talks. North Korea was in attendance
Sept. 2005: North Korea pledges to dismantle nuclear programs in return for pledges of energy assistance.
Nov. 2005: Fifth round of Six Party Talks
Timeline
July 2006: North Korea fires 7 missiles into Sea of Japan
Oct. 2006: North Korea declares that it conducted first nuclear test
Feb. 2007: Sixth round of Six Party Talks
July 2007: North Korea closes down a nuclear reactor after the US returns the transfer of previously frozen funds
July 2007: Seventh round of Six Party Talks
Sept. 2007: North Korea pledges to disclose all nuclear activities and disable nuclear programs by end of 2007
Jan 2008: North Korea fails to fulfill its promise to disclose all nuclear programs
Timeline
June 2008: North Korea destroys the cooling tower at Yongbyon nuclear facility
July 2008: Eighth round of Six Party Talks
Sept 2008: North Korea announces plans to restart nuclear programs and bans international inspectors from Yongbyon
Oct 2008: President Bush removes North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism
Oct. 2008: North Korea resumes tearing down Yongbyon and removes ban on international inspectors
April 2009: North Korea launches a long-range missile over Japan. The UN Security Council condemns the launch and broadens sanctions against the country
Timeline
April 2009: North Korea expels inspectors from the country and vows to never return to Six Party Talks
May 2009: North Korea explodes nuclear device underground
Jan. 2010: North Korea calls for end to hostile relations with the US and vows to strive for a nuclear-free peninsula
Feb. 2010: North Korea declares 4 areas near disputed sea border with South Korea to be naval firing zones
March 2010: Sinking of South Korean warship
July 2010: US announces new sanctions on North Korea in response to warship sinking
Timeline
Aug. 2010: Kim Jong-il visits China; both countries push to resume Six Party Talks
Sept. 2010: President Obama signs new sanctions against North Korea into law.
Nov. 2010: North Korea shows visiting American nuclear scientist a new, secretly-built uranium enriching facility
Nov. 2010: Cross-border clash between North and South Korea South: North fired on border island; resulted in death of 2 marines North: South began firing first One of the worst clashes between the two countries since the Korean
War
Six Party Talks
Accomplishments Sept. 2005 Agreement
North Korea pledges to eventually abandon quest to become nuclear power
Denuclearization Plan Feb. 2007 Yongbyon plant 2008: release of
documents
Pitfalls North Korea has continued to
fire missiles over/near Japan
Stop-and-go negotiations; unpredictability of North Korea
Multiple missile tests
Document left out details
Warship sinking
November clashes with South Korea
US Stance
Since North Korea walked out of 2009 talks, President Obama has pursued negotiations with the other parties
Doubts that multi-lateral talks will produce results; bilateral talks between the US and North Korea may produce the best/quickest results
Dec. 1: “We are not interested in talks, and talks are no substitute for having North Korea fulfills its international obligations, meet its commitments and cease provocations…As North Korea demonstrates a willingness to do that, then we will act accordingly” (State Department spokesman Philip Crowley)
Until North Korea shows a responsible attitude toward recent provocation, the stalled talks will not be resumed
Option OneThe U.S. should push to NOT return to Six Party
TalksPros:
North Korea needs to be held responsible for its actions
Country has a past of aggressive action prompting negotiations; this isn’t a trend we should continue
North Korea’s end goals in the talks are a pledge of nonaggression from the US and aid from other parties
Cons:
Doesn’t help anyone achieve their goals, not just North Korea
Kim Jong-il is already unpredictable; no guarantee that not negotiating with him make the country take responsibility or change their actions
Results in a standstill where nothing will change
Option TwoThe U.S. shouldn’t push for a return to the
talks, but also shouldn’t rule out the option of talks in the future
Pros:
Places pressure on North Korea to take responsibility for their actions and change their behavior, but offers an incentive if they do
Leave open the option for bi-lateral as well as multi-lateral talks
South Korea isn’t interested in resuming the talks; China is
Cons:
Under what circumstances would the U.S. be willing to return to the talks?
Not pushing for a return to the Six Party Talks but holding bi-lateral talks with North Korea could undermine the other countries in the group
Option ThreeThe U.S. should push for an immediate return
to the talksPros:
Could show that the U.S. is serious about reaching a solution
There is no guarantee that North Korea will change their behavior without a negotiation process
Multi-lateral talks will decrease North Korea’s feeling that the U.S. and South Korea are teaming up against them
Cons:
Continuation of past trends where North Korea acts aggressively and the other parties make concessions
South Korea has no interest in returning to Six Party Talks this early
The success of the previous meetings of the Six Party Talks is questionable
My Decision – Option Two
Gives the United States the most options
North Korea can be unpredictable; gives us the option to pursue multi or bi-lateral talks depending on how the climate changes
Puts some pressure on North Korea to change their behavior without either seeming like we are bending to their will or refusing to negotiate