from the six-party talks to a northeast asian security regime? by joseph r. cerami

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  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    1/22

    HBJKKGMIGX VOXGD @Q TBG DVPC

    EOP TBG JKKAJMHG JMD TBG PGIAOM

    Tbg Copgj Ghomolah Amxtatwtg :06: E Xtpggt+ MY+ Xwatg 1:6 Yjxbamitom+ DH 06664

    Tgkgvbomg "060! 454,:120 Ejhxalakg "060! 454,:129 Yg` Jddpgxx yyy-cgaj-opi

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    2/22

    HOMTGMTX

    Vpgejhg - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - u

    Vjpt A> Xowtb Copgj jmd tbg W-X-,POC Jkkajmhg

    Vw`kah Ovamaom j`owt POC,W-X- Pgkjtaomx

    Kgg Mjg,qowmi- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - :

    J Mgy W-X-,POC Jkkajmhg> J Mamg,Voamt Pghollgmdjtaom eop j Pgekghtaug jmd Ljtwpg Vjptmgpxbav

    Vjpc Cwm,qowmi- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - :0

    Vjpt AA> Gjxt Jxajm Pgiaomjkaxl> Louami Eopyjpd

    Xowtb Copgj jmd Gjxt Jxajm Pgiaomjkaxl> Ybahb Vjtb Jbgjd?

    Hbwmi Nam,qowmi- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 87

    Vjpt AAA> Tbg Moptb Copgjm Mwhkgjp Axxwg

    Gmailj oe tbg Moptb Copgjm Pgialg> @jhc to tbg Ewtwpg?

    Cjtbpqm Ygjtbgpx`q - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 48

    Epol tbg Xar,Vjptq Tjkcx to j Moptbgjxt Jxajm Xghwpatq Pgialg?

    Hoovgpjtaug Tbpgjt Pgdwhtaom Xtpjtgiagx jmd Amxtatwtaomjk Dgugkovlgmt

    Noxgvb P- Hgpjla - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 71

    Moptb Copgjx Xtpjtgiah Amtgmtaomx

    Jmdpgy P- Xho`gkk- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 92

    Ugpaeagd Daxljmtkglgmt oe tbg DVPCx Mwhkgjp Ygjvomx Vpoipjl

    Djuad Jk`paibt- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 15

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    3/22 TBG MOPTB COPGJM MWHKGJP AXXWG 71

    EPOL TBG XAR,VJPTQ TJKCX TO J MOPTBGJXT JXAJM XGHWPATQ PGIALG?

    HOOVGPJTAUG TBPGJT PGDWHTAOM XTPJTGIAGX JMD AMXTATWTAOMJK

    DGUGKOVLGMT

    `q Noxgvb P- Hgpjla

    Amtpodwhtaom jmd @jhcipowmd

    Omioami daeeahwktagx am tbg xar,vjptq tjkcx eop gkala,

    mjtami Moptb Copgjm mwhkgjp vpoipjlx homtamwg to

    dolamjtg tbg Moptbgjxt Jxajm xghwpatq jigmdj- Tbg

    vw`kah dg`jtg ougp tbg jvvpovpajtg W-X- vokahq jmd

    mgiotajtami xtpjtgiagx oeegpx xtjpc hboahgx- Om tbg omg

    bjmd+ tbg @wxb jdlamaxtpjtaom jpiwgx eop homtamwami j

    lwktakjtgpjk jvvpojhb eop `pamiami pgiaomjk vpgxxwpgx

    to gjp+ gxvghajkkq gmhowpjiami Hbamgxg vokahq kgjdgp,

    xbav- Tbg ovvoxataom+ gxvghajkkq jx uoahgd `q dglo,

    hpjtah hjmdadjtgx am tbg 0664 W-X- vpgxadgmtajk gkgh,taom+ hjkkgd eop tbg pgxwlvtaom oe `akjtgpjk tjkcx `g,

    tyggm tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx jmd Moptb Copgj- Tbg o`ngh,

    taugx oe `otb xadgx am tbg dg`jtg eohwx om xalakjp o`,

    nghtaugx+ amhkwdami gkalamjtami Moptb Copgjm mwhkgjp

    ygjvomx jkomi yatb mwhkgjp ygjvomx jmd komi,pjmig

    laxxakg dgugkovlgmt vpoipjlx- Iaugm tbg hwppgmt kjhc

    oe vpoipgxx+ ax tbgpg j `gttgp jvvpojhb eop pgiaomjk op

    lwktakjtgpjk mgiotajtaomx?

    @akjtgpjkaxtx ljq voamt to tbg gjpkagp xwhhgxx oe tbg

    Jipggd Epjlgyopc-: Hpatahx oe tbg Jipggd Epjlg,

    yopc hjm voamt to tbg `pgjcdoym oe tbg epjlgyopcam 0666- Tbg Hkamtom lgloap hatgx tbg xwhhgxx oe tbg

    epjlgyopc jx ygkk jx bax ejakgd jttglvtx to homtamwg

    davkoljhq yatb Moptb Copgj to pgdwhg tgmxaomx jmd

    vjug tbg yjq eop jddataomjk jplx homtpokx pgijpdami

    komi,pjmig laxxakgx-0

    Hgptjamkq+ iaugm hwppgmt mgyx+ tbg xtjkk am tbg xar,vjptq

    tjkcx vpouadgx xolg vjwxg eop pgekghtami om jktgpmj,

    taugx eop homtamwami jkomi tbg hwppgmt vjtb- Tbg vwp,

    voxg oe tbax vjvgp ax to grjlamg tbg voxxa`akatagx eop

    alvpouami tbg hwppgmt jvvpojhb to Moptb Copgj wxami

    j tbgopgtahjkkq ameoplgd lwktakjtgpjkaxt vgpxvghtaug-

    Amxtatwtaomjk tbgopq vpouadgx jm jktgpmjtaug vjtb to hom,

    xadgp eop jddpgxxami tbg hwppgmt howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom

    vokahq hbjkkgmigx am Moptbgjxt Jxaj- Am jddataom to jm

    amxtatwtaomjk tbgopgtahjk vgpxvghtaug+ tbgpg ax j vpjhtahjk

    grjlvkg oe j howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom xwhhgxx eop holvjpa,

    xom yatb tbg Jipggd Epjlgyopcx hogphaug davkoljhqjvvpojhb-

    Omg yadgkq pghoima~gd howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom xwhhgxx

    ax epol tbg Hkamtom,gpj grvgpagmhg am tbg Mwmm,Kwijp

    Hoovgpjtaug Tbpgjt Pgdwhtaom "HTP! vpoipjlx yatb

    Pwxxaj jmd tbg eoplgp Xouagt pgvw`kahx- @jkjmhgd pg,

    uagyx oe Mwmm,Kwijp vpoipjlx motg tbjt+ jetgp j dg,

    hjdg+ tbgap vponghtx bjug ijamgd tbg camd oe vokatahjk+

    `wpgjwhpjtah+ jmd `wdigtjpq xwvvopt tbjt bjx jkk `wt

    amxtatwtaomjka~gd tbgl-8 Eop xwvvoptgpx oe tbg Mwmm,

    Kwijp jvvpojhb+ tbg zwgxtaom ax boy to gmbjmhg tbgxg

    vpoipjlx to ijam jddataomjk `gmgeatx `gqomd tbg gjpkq vponghtx eop homxokadjtami jmd homtpokkami Xouagt

    mwhkgjp ygjvomx am Pwxxajm tgppatopq- Ipjbjl Jkkaxom

    jmd otbgpx hjkk eop grtgmdami Mwmm,Kwijp,tqvg vponghtx

    to tboxg tbjt daxljmtkg jddataomjk mwhkgjp ygjvomx+

    homtpok eaxxakg ljtgpajkx+ jmd dgmq tgppopaxtx jhhgxx to

    mwhkgjp ygjvomx jmd tghbmokoiq-4

    :- Tbg xghpgtjpq oe dgegmxg am :111+ Yakkajl Vgppq+ hjkkgd tbg Moptb Copgjm hpaxax tbg loxt xgpaowx hpaxax am tbg eapxt Hkamtomjdlamaxtpjtaom- Bax eapxtbjmd vgpxvghtaug kgd to bax `gkage tbjt tbg pgjk votgmtajk eop yjp yjx vpgugmtgd `ghjwxg oe tbg Jipggd

    Epjlgyopc mgiotajtaom- Vgppq+ am Jxbtom @- Hjptgp jmd Yakkajl N- Vgppq+Vpgugmtaug Dgegmxg> J Mgy Xghwpatq Xtpjtgiq eop Jlgpahj

    "Yjxbamitom+ D-H-> @poocamix Amxtatwtaom Vpgxx+ :111!+ :084+ ypatgx> Yg ygpg j`owt to iaug tbg vpgxadgmt j hboahg `gtyggm j

    daxjxtpowx ovtaomjkkoyami Moptb Copgj to igt j mwhkgjp jpxgmjk - - - jmd jm wmvjkjtj`kg ovtaom+ `kohcami tbax dgugkovlgmt+ `wttbgpg`q paxcami j dgxtpwhtaug mom,mwhkgjp yjp-

    0- @akk Hkamtom+Lq Kaeg "Mgy Qopc> Jkepgd J- Cmove+ 0664!-

    8- Bgmpq D- Xocokxca jmd Tboljx Paaxjigp+ gdx-+ @gqomd Mwmm,Kwijp> Hwp`ami tbg Mgrt Yjug oe Ygjvomx Vpokaegpjtaom TbpgjtxEpol Pwxxaj "Hjpkaxkg+ Vj-> Xtpjtgiah Xtwdagx Amxtatwtg+ 0660!-

    4- Ipjbjl T- Jkkaxom+Mwhkgjp Tgppopaxl> Tbg Wktaljtg Vpgugmtj`kg Hjtjxtpovbg "Mgy Qopc> Talgx @oocx+ 0664!-

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    4/2256 TBG COPGJ GHOMOLAH AMXTATWTG

    Tbax vjvgp grjlamgx tbg vokahq dgugkovlgmt jmd

    alvkglgmtjtaom oe tbg Hkamtom,gpj Mwmm,Kwijp vpo,

    ipjlx to vpouadg amxaibtx dpjym epol tbax voxataug

    grjlvkg oe xwhhgxx am howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom vokahq- Tbg

    amxtatwtaomjkaxt jvvpojhb vpouadgx j epjlgyopc eop

    tbamcami j`owt j pgiaomjk xghwpatq pgialg tbjt iogx

    `gqomd tbg hwppgmt xar,vjptq epjlgyopc am MoptbgjxtJxaj- Amxtatwtaomjkaxt tbgopq jkxo vpouadgx xhbokjpkq

    amxaibtx eop daxhwxxami tbg Mwmm,Kwijp epjlgyopc

    to kamc amtgpmjtaomjk pgkjtaomx tbgopq yatb tbg vpjhtahjk

    kgxxomx dpjym epol j xwhhgxxewk howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom

    vokahq hjxg- Jmotbgp amxaibt tbax hjxg oeegpx ax am hom,

    tpjxtami holvgtataug xtpjtgiagx+7 xwhb jx jddpgxxgd am

    hogphaug davkoljhq tbgopq+ yatb j hoovgpjtaug xtpjtg,

    iah jvvpojhb+ jx xwiigxtgd am amxtatwtaomjk tbgopq-5

    Omg ovtaom eop hwppgmt howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom

    vokahqljcami pgijpdami Moptb Copgj+ tbgm+ ax to kg,

    ugpjig omioami axxwgx jmd homhgpmx+ tbg xar,vjptqtjkcx+ jmd tbg gvaxodah hpaxax jtloxvbgpg ybakg `wakd,

    ami jm amxtatwtaomjk jvvpojhb eop j Moptbgjxt Jxajm

    xghwpatq pgialg- Kgviokd jmd Mamhah jddpgxx tbg tbgopq

    jmd baxtopq oe amtgpmjtaomjk amxtatwtaomjkaxl jmd tbg

    tbgopgtahjk cmoykgdig+ jmd tbg vpjhtahjk grvgpagmhgx

    tbgq pghowmt xwiigxt j pojd ljv eop vpohggdami yatb

    amxtatwtaomjk dgugkovlgmt-9 Am `page+ tbgq vpovoxg j

    vjttgpm oe xwhhgxx `jxgd om amtgpmjtaomjk pgkjtaomx

    ewmhtaomjkaxt tbgopagx jx ygkk jx tbg pghgmt baxtopq oe

    tbg Gwpovgjm Wmaom "GW! jmd tbg Moptb Jtkjmtah Tpgjtq

    Opijma~jtaom "MJTO!-2 Am `page+ tbg ovtaom xwiigxtgd

    bgpg ax tbg mwptwpami oe j xljkk ipowv oe kacg,lamdgd

    xtjtgx jmd kgjdgpx oe tboxg xtjtgx "tbg xar vjptagx!+

    eohwxgd jpowmd omg xvghaeah ewmhtaomjk jpgj

    "howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom!+ to `wakd geeghtaug pwkgx+ opij,

    ma~jtaomx+ jmd gmeophglgmt lghbjmaxlx eop dgugkov,

    ami jm geeghtaug Moptbgjxt Jxajm xghwpatq pgialg-

    Amxtatwtaomjkaxl jx j Hoovgpjtaug Xtpjtgiq

    Jx daxhwxxgd am tbg vpguaowx xghtaom+ am tbg Moptb

    Copgjm hjxg oe tbg Jipggd Epjlgyopc mgiotajtaomx+

    tbg Hkamtom jdlamaxtpjtaom gmijigd am j tpjdataomjk+ dav,

    koljtah jvvpojhb+ xtpgxxami vpamhavkgx jmd tghbmazwgx

    xalakjp to tboxg dpjym epol tbg xhbokjpkq amtgpmjtaomjk

    pgkjtaomx tbgopagx oe hogphaug davkoljhq- Tbg Moptb

    Copgjm Jipggd Epjlgyopc hjxg ax pgvpgxgmtjtaug oe

    tov,doym vokahq kgjdgpxbav- Vpgxadgmt Hkamtom+ Xgh,

    pgtjpq oe Dgegmxg Yakkajl Vgppq+ Xghpgtjpq oe Xtjtg

    Yjppgm Hbpaxtovbgp+ jmd otbgp baib,kgugk grghwtaug

    `pjmhb xtjcgbokdgpx ygpg gmijigd am dgugkovami tbgjdlamaxtpjtaomx vokahq jmd ougpxggami tbg `akjtgpjk

    W-X-, Moptb Copgjm mgiotajtaomx- Otbgp W-X- oeeahajkx

    jmd jkkagd iougpmlgmtx ygpg homxwktgd+ amhkwdami tbg

    W-X- Homipgxx jmd tbg iougpmlgmtx oe tbg Pgvw`kah

    oe Copgj "POC+ op Xowtb Copgj! jmd Njvjm- Tbg alvkg,

    lgmtjtaom oe tbg Jipggd Epjlgyopc amhkwdgd tbg xai,

    maeahjmt amuokuglgmt oe tbg Wmatgd Mjtaomx "WM! yatb

    tbg amuokuglgmt oe Amtgpmjtaomjk Jtolah Gmgpiq

    Jigmhq "AJGJ!+ jx ygkk jx tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx+ gxvg,

    hajkkq atx amtgkkaigmhg jigmhagx+ tbpowib tbgap jhtaug

    lomatopami-

    7- Eop dgtjakx oe j holvgtataug xtpjtgiagx jvvpojhb+ xgg Djuad N- Jmdpg+ JHolvgtataug Xtpjtgiagx> Jm Jvvpojhb jijamxt Vpokaegpj,taom+ amVpgujakami am j Ygkk Jplgd Yopkd> Dguaxami Holvgtataug Xtpjtgiagx Jijamxt Ygjvomx Vpokaegpjtaom+ gd- Bgmpq D- Xocokxca

    "Hjpkaxkg+ Vj-> Xtpjtgiah Xtwdagx Amxtatwtg+ 0666!-

    5- Eop tbg jwtbopx daxhwxxaom oe holvgtataug xtpjtgiq+ tbjt ax+ wxami tbg hogphaug davkoljhq katgpjtwpg to jmjkq~g tbg JipggdEpjlgyopc hjxg+ xgg Noxgvb P- Hgpjla jmd @gmnjlam H- @pqjm+ Grghwtaug Kgjdgpxbav jmd tbg Howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom Vokahq Amataj,taugTbg W-X-,Moptb Copgj Jipggd Epjlgyopc "vjvgp vpgxgmtgd jt tbg 0664 Amtgpmjtaomjk Xtwdagx Jxxohajtaom homegpgmhg+ Lomtpgjk!3

    jm wvdjtgd ugpxaom oe tbg vjvgp ax @wxb Xhbook Yopcami Vjvgp mo- 4:6+ bttv>//`wxb-tjlw-gdw/homtgmt/pgxgjphb/yopcami_vjvgpx/nhgpjla/Hgpjla@pqjm-vde-

    9- Noxgvb Kgviokd jmd Lapoxkju Mamhah+@gqomd tbg Auopq Toygp> Amtgpmjtaomjk Pgkjtaomx Tbgopq jmd tbg Axxwg oe Vokahq Pgkgujmhg

    "Mgy Qopc> Hokwl`aj Wmaugpxatq Vpgxx+ 066:!-

    2- Hbpaxtovbgp N- Bgllgp jmd Vgtgp Cjt~gmxtgam+ am Ybq Ax Tbgpg Mo MJTO am Jxaj? Hokkghtaug Adgmtatq+ Pgiaomjkaxl+ jmd tbg

    Opaiamx oe Lwktakjtgpjkaxl+Amtgpmjtaomjk Opijma~jtaom75+ mo- 8 "Jwiwxt 0660!> 797569+ jkxo holvjpg daeegpgmhgx am W-X- Hokd Yjpjvvpojhbgx to xwhhgxxewk pgiaomjk jppjmiglgmtx am Gwpovg jmd tbg kjhc oe xalakjp jvvpojhbgx am Jxaj- Tbgap vjvgp ax xaimaeahjmt eop atxglvbjxax om tbg alvjht oe hwktwpjk jmd baxtopahjk daeegpgmhgx am homtpjxtami lwktakjtgpjk jvvpojhbgx eop tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx am Gwpovg

    jmd `akjtgpjk jvvpojhbgx eop tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx am Jxaj-

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    5/22 TBG MOPTB COPGJM MWHKGJP AXXWG 5:

    J xghomd hjxg xtwdq grjlamami jktgpmjtaug jvvpojhbgx

    ax xaimaeahjmt eop ijamami amxaibtx amto tbg homdataomx

    eop dgugkovami geeghtaug mjtaomjk xghwpatq

    howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom vokahagx- Jx jpiwgd vpguaowxkq+ jx

    xboym `q tbg baxtopq oe tbg vjxt dghjdg+ tbg Jipggd

    Epjlgyopc hjxg xwiigxtx j ejakgd howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom

    geeopt- Iaugm tbg kjhc oe amxtatwtaomjk jmd opijma~j,taomjk pootx+ tbg Jipggd Epjlgyopc ejakgd to jhbagug

    kjxtami geeghtx am jhhopdjmhg yatb tbg W-X- o`nghtaug

    oe gmdami tbg Moptbx mwhkgjp ygjvomx vpoipjl- Am

    holvjpaxom+ tbgm+ ybq ax tbg Mwmm,Kwijp vokahq owt,

    holg igmgpjkkq jipggd to `g lopg xwhhgxxewk tbjm

    tbg Jipggd Epjlgyopc grvgpagmhg?

    J lopg xwhhgxxewk hjxgomg kgd lopg dapghtkq `q

    tbg xghpgtjpq oe dgegmxg jkomi yatb Dgvjptlgmt oe

    Dgegmxg "DOD! xtjee jmd amekwgmhgd `q otbgp opijma,

    ~jtaomjk xtjcgbokdgpx+ amhkwdami jm gmijigd Homipgxx

    jmd pgiaomjk vkjqgpxxwiigxtx jddataomjk amxaibtx amtotbg holvomgmtx oe geeghtaug howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom

    vokahqljcami- Ybjt amxaibtx dogx tbg Mwmm,Kwijp

    hjxg vpouadg am tgplx oe jm amxtjmhg ybgpg grghwtaug

    jmd `wpgjwhpjtah kgjdgpxbav homtpa`wtgd to xwhhgxx,

    ewk jmd kjxtami vokahq ammoujtaom? Ybjt ygpg tbg pokgx

    oe tbg dgegmxg xghpgtjpq jmd tbg DOD `wpgjwhpjhq

    jx ygkk jx tbg pokgx oe tbg cgq xgmjtopx? Tbgxg grghw,

    taug jmd kgiaxkjtaug `pjmhb kgjdgpxbav geeoptx ygpg

    dgxaimgd to jddpgxx tbg hpatahjk vpokaegpjtaom tbpgjtx

    oe kooxg mwcgx epol tbg eoplgp Xouagt pgvw`kahx am

    tbg jetgpljtb oe tbg Hokd Yjp-

    To ijam tbgopgtahjk amxaibtx to iwadg tbax hjxg xtwdq+

    tbax vjvgp amtpodwhgx homhgvtx dpjym epol tbg katgpj,

    twpg om amtgpmjtaomjk amxtatwtaomx- Eapxt+ tbg W-X- owt,

    kooc om amtgpmjtaomjk xghwpatq amxtatwtaomx am tbg vjxt

    hgmtwpq yakk g dgxhpa`gd pagekq- Mgrt+ tbg ljnop adgjx

    jmd uagyx am amxtatwtaomjk tbgopq yakk g owtkamgd- Tbgm+

    tbg cmoym homdataomx eop xwhhgxx op ejakwpg am amxta,

    twtaom wakdami yakk g daxhwxxgd- Kjxt+ tbgxg adgjx jmd

    homdataomx yakk iwadg jm grjlamjtaom oe W-X- vokahq jx

    dgugkovgd `q tbg xghpgtjpq oe dgegmxg jmd otbgpx am,

    uokugd am tbg HTP vpoipjlx to vpgugmt tbg vpokaegpj,

    taom oe ygjvomx oe ljxx dgxtpwhtaom "YLD! am tbgeoplgp Xouagt pgvw`kahx-

    Tbg tygmtagtb,hgmtwpq baxtopq oe tbg W-X- voxtwpg

    toyjpd amtgpmjtaomjk amxtatwtaomx amhkwdgx tbpgg hqhkgx

    oe gmijiglgmt eokkoygd q yatbdpjyjk-1 Yatb tbg dax,

    xokwtaom oe tbg Xouagt Wmaom dwpami tbg Igopig B- Y-

    @wxb "bgpgjetgp Igopig @wxb! vpgxadgmhq+ amtgpmjtaomjk

    amxtatwtaomx hjlg to `g uagygd lopg ejuopj`kq omhg

    jijam- Am :11:+ Igopig @wxb hjkkgd eop j pgmgygd

    amtgpmjtaomjk opdgp wmdgp WM iwadjmhg jetgp j xwh,

    hgxxewk amtgpmjtaomjk hojkataom homtpa`wtgd to tbg dg,

    egjt oe Xjddjl Bwxxgamx Apjza eophgx am tbg IwkeYjp-:6 Vpgxadgmt Hkamtom homtamwgd tbax yjug oe gm,

    ijiglgmt+ vpolotami j vokahq oe jxxgptaug

    lwktakjtgpjkaxl+ gxvghajkkq vpomowmhgd am tbg hojkataom

    davkoljhq jmd daeeahwktagx yatb WM jmd MJTO

    vokahqljcgpx pgijpdami tbg glvkoqlgmt oe vgjhg,

    cggvami jplgd eophgx am tbg @jkcjmx-::

    Tbg hqhkg xboygd xaimx oe jijam pgugpxami jyjq epol

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  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    6/2250 TBG COPGJ GHOMOLAH AMXTATWTG

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  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    7/22 TBG MOPTB COPGJM MWHKGJP AXXWG 58

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  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    8/2254 TBG COPGJ GHOMOLAH AMXTATWTG

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    yopkduagy+ jmd gxvghajkkq j bgiglomx yopkduagy+ ax

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    hbjmigx pgxwktami epol tbg hokkjvxg oe j pgaimami hom,

    05- Acgm`gppq+Jetgp Uahtopq+ :7-

    09- Kgviokd jmd Mamhah+@gqomd tbg Auopq Toygp+ :767:-

    02- Pwiiag+ gd-+Lwktakjtgpjkaxl Ljttgpx+ 2-

    01- Jlq @- ^gijpt+Ekjygd `q Dgxaim> Tbg Guokwtaom oe tbg HAJ+ NHX+ jmd MXH"Xtjmeopd> Xtjmeopd Wmaugpxatq Vpgxx+ :111!-

    86- Adgjx am tbax vjpjipjvb om tbg eowp cgq dalgmxaomx jpg epol Kgviokd jmd Mamhah+@gqomd tbg Auopq Toygp+ :7471-

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    9/22 TBG MOPTB COPGJM MWHKGJP AXXWG 57

    xgmxwx jmd tbg glgpigmhg oe j mgy dolamjmt jmd

    uaj`kg adgj am yopkd vokatahx-

    Xhbokjpx amtgpvpgtjtaomx oe yopkduagyx pguokug jpowmd

    tbg eowp dolamjmt vgpxvghtaugx daxhwxxgd j`oug> pg,

    jkaxl+ ka`gpjkaxl+ ewmhtaomjkaxl+ jmd homxtpwhtauaxl-

    Gjhb vpovoxgx jktgpmjtaugx eop vokahqljcami jx ygkkjx jxxwlvtaomx pgijpdami tbg pgkgujmhg oe amxtatwtaomx

    jx amxtpwlgmtx oe xtjtghpjet- Xtjtg kgjdgpx

    yopkduagyx+ gxvghajkkq eop vpgxadgmtx jmd xghpgtjpagx

    oe dgegmxg+ yakk bjug alvoptjmt vokahq alvkahjtaomx-

    Eop pgjkaxtx kacg Yjkt~ jmd Lgjpxbgalgp+ tbg xtjtg ax

    tbg eohwx oe jttgmtaom+ jmd tbg xtjtgx vwpxwat oe xgke,

    amtgpgxt am jm jmjphbah yopkd ax oe xwvpglg alvop,

    tjmhg- Am Acgm`gppqx hbjpjhtgpa~jtaom oe mgopgjkaxl+

    boygugp+ `jkjmhg oe voygp ljttgpx jx lwhb jx xgke,

    amtgpgxt jx j lodgpjtop oe xtjtg voygp- Am j mgopgjkaxt

    jdlamaxtpjtaom+ eop amxtjmhg+ amxtatwtaomx ljq xgpug tbg

    xtjtgx amtgpgxtx to tbg grtgmt tbjt tbg jppjmiglgmtxpgekght kgjpmgd jmd eopljk pwkgx oe gzwaka`pawl jmd

    `jkjmhg tbjt pgameophg xtj`akatq jmd opdgp jmd+ tbgpg,

    eopg+ tbg voxataom oe dolamjmt mjtaom,xtjtgx op ipgjt

    voygpx-

    Ka`gpjkaxl xtpgxxgx j bjplomq oe amtgpgxtx jlomi

    mjtaomx am jm amtgpmjtaomjk hollwmatq- Eop ka`gpjkx+

    amxtatwtaom `wakdami ax j mjtwpjk xaim oe vpoipgxx- Eop

    mgoka`gpjkx+ tbgpg jpg lopg xvghaeah homxadgpjtaomx tbjm

    motaomx oe hollwmatq eop atx oym xjcg- Tbg

    mgoka`gpjkx kooc eop jipgglgmtx jmd homtpjhtx to wm,

    dgpvam amtgpmjtaomjk pgkjtaomx- Jipgglgmtx amhkwdg eop,ljk yjqx to pgdwhg wmhgptjamtq+ koygp tpjmxjhtaom

    hoxtx+ jmd xokug vpo`kglx oe hokkghtaug jhtaom- Am tbax

    pgijpd+ tbg mgoka`gpjk+ tbg ewmhtaomjkaxt+ jx ygkk jx tbg

    pgjkaxt jvvpojhbgx jkaim am tgplx oe j bjplomq oe am,

    tgpgxtx am xokuami vpo`kglx tbpowib hokkghtaug jhtaom

    tbjt wktaljtgkq xgpugx tbg xtjtgx vwpvoxgx op xgke am,

    tgpgxtx- Tbwx+ Cgobjmg jpiwgx eophgewkkq tbjt amtgp,

    mjtaomjk amxtatwtaomx vgpeopl xtjtg tjxcx uatjk eop gm,

    j`kami hoovgpjtaom-8: Am ejht+ Cgobjmg daxdjamx ka`gpjk

    op mgoka`gpjk kj`gkx eop bax tbgopa~ami jmd amxtgjd hom,

    xadgpx balxgke j xtjwmhb amxtatwtaomjkaxt-

    Homxtpwhtauaxl ax jmotbgp jvvpojhb yatb lopg gl,

    vbjxax om hpgjtami jmd dgugkovami xbjpgd ujkwgx am

    yopkd vokatahx- Cjt~gmxtgam jmd Acgm`gppq hbjpjhtgp,

    a~g amxtatwtaomx jx j vpodwht oe daeewxg jmd xohajkkq

    homxtpwhtgd yopkduagyx- Jijam tbgpg ax xolg ougpkjv

    yatb pgjkaxtx am tbg xgmxg oe geeghtaug amxtatwtaomx vpo,

    uadami baib pgtwpmx to voygp+ op+ jx Cjt~gmxtgamhbjpjhtgpa~gx at+ homtjamami j xtahcamgxx tbjt ljcgx

    tbgl bjpd to pgvkjhg `ghjwxg tbgq ewptbgp `otb xtjtg

    ujkwgx jmd amtgpgxtx-

    Lwktakjtgpjkaxt Pwiiag jmd mgoamxtatwtaomjkaxt ^gijpt

    vpouadg ewptbgp amxaibtx pgijpdami tbg alvoptjmhg oe

    amatajk op eowmdami homdataomx jx loxt xaimaeahjmt eop

    dgtgplamami amxtatwtaomjk geeghtaugmgxx- Tbgxg amatajk

    homdataomx mopljkkq pgekght tbg dolgxtah gmuapomlgmt

    oe tbg kgjdami xtjtg+ op bgiglom- Grjlvkgx yowkd

    amhkwdg tbg alvoptjmhg oe tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx am tbg

    eowmdami oe tbg WM jetgp Yopkd Yjp AA- Otbgp mgoka`gpjktbowibtx kamcgd to ewmhtaomjk jvvpojhbgx amhkwdg tbg

    adgj oe `wmdkami axxwgx jmd tbg mwl`gp oe vjptmgpx

    amuokugd- Pwiiag jmd otbgp jwtbopx+ gxvghajkkq am tbg

    ewmhtaomjkaxt xhbook+ jpiwg tbjt amhkwdami egygp vjpt,

    mgpx+ hboxgm `ghjwxg tbgq xbjpg ujkwgx "jx am tbg GW!

    jmd eohwxgd axxwgx tbjt xgpug hollom amtgpgxtx "jx

    am bjktami tbg pgiaomjk xvpgjd oe mwhkgjp ygjvomx!+ ax

    lopg kacgkq to xwhhggd-

    Am tgplx pgkjtaug to tbg amtgpmjtaomjk xghwpatq xtwdagx

    katgpjtwpg daxhwxxgd j`oug jmd tbg Jipggd Epjlgyopc

    grvgpagmhg+ Mwmm,Kwijp pgvpgxgmtx j mjppjtaug oe kgjd,gpxbav+ vpaljpakq jx kgjdgpxbav epol tbg tov jmd laddkg-

    At amhkwdgx j kjpig mwl`gp oe vkjqgpx amuokugd am tbg

    vpoipjlx eowmdami jmd guokwtaom tbpowibowt tbg

    :116x- Tbg vpohgxx oe tpjhami Mwmm,Kwijpx dgugk,

    ovlgmt yakk vpouadg amxaibtx amto Iottglogkkgpx o`,

    xgpujtaom tbjt Sx\tj`kg hoovgpjtaom+ tbgpgeopg+ ax kacgkq

    to pgzwapg `otb jttgmtaom epol om baib jmd `wpgjw,

    hpjtah hollatlgmt jt j koygp kgugk-80 Omg cgq da,

    lgmxaom eop grjlamami tbg homdataomx eop jhbaguami

    xtj`kg hoovgpjtaom amhkwdgx tbg motaom oe vokahq pgk,

    gujmhg-

    8:- Cgobjmg+Voygp jmd Iougpmjmhg am j Vjptajkkq Iko`jka~gd Yopkd+ 8-

    80- Poxg Iottglogkkgp+ Hoovgpjtaug Amdwhglgmtx> Hpjetami Mgy Tookx eop Momvpokaegpjtaom+ am Wktaljtg Xghwpatq> Hol`jtami

    Ygjvomx oe Ljxx Dgxtpwhtaom+ gd- Njmmg Mokjm+ @gpmjpd A- Eamgk+ jmd @pajm D- Eamkjq "Mgy Qopc> Hgmtwpq Eowmdjtaom Vpgxx+ 0668!+

    :47-

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    10/2255 TBG COPGJ GHOMOLAH AMXTATWTG

    Vokahq jmd Amxtpwlgmtjk Pgkgujmhg

    Tyo jxvghtx oe vokahqljcami pgkgujmhg jpg vpgxgmtgd

    am tbg katgpjtwpg om amtgpmjtaomjk amxtatwtaomx-88 Tbgxg

    amhkwdg vokahq pgkgujmhg jmd amxtpwlgmtjk pgkgujmhg-

    Vokahq pgkgujmhg pgegpx to tbg ljhpovokatahjk op xtpj,

    tgiah jxvghtx oe vokahq dgxaim am amtgpmjtaomjk pgkj,taomx- Amxtpwlgmtjk pgkgujmhg pgegpx to lahpovokatahjk

    op tjhtahjk vgpxvghtaugx- Tbg mgoka`gpjkaxt jmd

    homxtpwhtauaxt tbgopaxtx motg tbjt jhtopx vpgegpgmhgx

    xbjvg vokahq hboahgx-

    Tbg katgpjtwpg baibkaibtx eaug jpgjx tbjt xwiigxt tbg

    mghgxxjpq jmd xweeahagmt homdataomx eop vokahq pgk,

    gujmhg+ amhkwdami+ eapxt+ holvkglgmtjpq mjtaomjk am,

    tgpgxtxtbjt ax+ tbjt tbg amxtatwtaom amhkwdgx jhhgvtgd

    ujkwgx+ tbjt iojkx jpg holvjta`kg eop tbg komi tgpl+

    tbjt tbgpg ax jm amugxtlgmt am jmq hbjmigx am vpgegp,

    gmhgx- Amtgpmjtaomjk amxtatwtaomx hjm hbjmig pgkjtaomxtbowib pgialgx+ dgeamgd jx moplx jmd pwkgx tbjt pgiw,

    kjtg `gbjuaop am xvghaeah axxwg jpgjx amuokuami amtgpmj,

    taomjk jhtauatagx-84 Jx Pwiiag xwiigxtx+ tbg amxtatwtaom

    yakk jkxo `g lopg xwhhgxxewk ae at jxxwpgx tbg

    bgiglomx xwvvopt- Bgiglom am tbax homtgrt jmd am

    tbax hjxg pgegpx to tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx jx tbg loxt voy,

    gpewk mjtaom,xtjtg am tbg voxtHokd Yjp vgpaod+ jx dg,

    eamgd am pgjkaxt tgplx pgijpdami mjtaomjk voygp-87

    Tbg xghomd jxvght oe vokahq pgkgujmhg jddpgxxgx tbg

    bgiglomx hollattami pgxowphgx jmd xwvvoptami

    pwkgx- Tbgxg pwkgx amhkwdg j hollatlgmt to gxxgmtajkvpamhavkgx jmd pwkgx oe opdgp+ jkomi yatb vjptmgpx to

    xbjpg `wpdgmx jmd hoopdamjtg vokahq- Tbg tbapd jx,

    vght ax tbg vgphgvtaom oe tbg amxtatwtaom jx j hjppagp oe

    moplx+ adgmtatq+ jmd cmoykgdig- Tbax amhkwdgx hoda,

    eqami jmd jwilgmtami kgijk moplx+ gxvghajkkq moplx

    tbjt glvoygp ybjt jpg vgphgaugd jx kgiataljtg hkjalx-

    Omg jddataomjk homdataom ax tbjt vpgegpgmhgx pgijpdami

    moplx+ adgmtatq+ jmd cmoykgdig guokug tbpowib amtgp,

    jhtaom jmd vpgxwlj`kq mot tbpowib dolamjtaom op eoph,

    ami- Eowptb jpg tbg grvghtjtaomx pgijpdami tbg hoxtx

    jmd homxgzwgmhgx oe jhtauatagx homdwhtgd tbpowib

    amtgpmjtaomjk amxtatwtaomx- Am `page+ jpg tbgpg xtj`kg gr,

    vghtjtaomx eop noamt hoopdamjtaom tbjt xgpug jipggd xtjtg

    vwpvoxgx? Tbg eaetb ujpaj`kg amuokugx tbg pokg oe tbg

    amxtatwtaom yatbam tbg vokahqljcami hollwmatq- Tbg

    katgpjtwpg xwiigxtx tbjt tbg doljam ax kalatgd to xatwj,taomx am ybahb tbg xtjtgx jkpgjdq jipgg om tbg vokahq

    o`nghtaugx op gmdx- Jijam+ tbg ewmhtaomjkaxt xhbook

    xwiigxtx tbg alvoptjmt amekwgmhg oe xvghajk+ grvgpt

    jigmhagx-

    Amxtpwlgmtjk pgkgujmhg bgpg pgegpx to tbg amhgmtaug

    xtpwhtwpgx+ lomatopami jmd gmeophglgmt lghbjmaxlx+

    hjkhwkjtaom oe ewtwpg gmgeatx jmd hoxtx+ jmd otbgp tookx

    eop ejhakatjtami geeghtaug+ vpodwhtaug `jpijamx-85 Tbgxg

    amhkwdg amhgmtaug xtpwhtwpgx+ lomatopami jmd gmeophg,

    lgmt+ hjkhwkjtaomx oe ewtwpg `gmgeatx jmd hoxtx+ jmd

    tookx eop ejhakatjtami geeghtaug+ vpodwhtaug `jpijamx-Amhgmtaug xtpwhtwpgx amhkwdg voxataug ejhtopx to ljcg

    hoovgpjtaom lopg kacgkq jx ygkk jx mgijtaug ejhtopx to

    vpgugmt dgeghtopx- Hjkhwkjtaomx oe ewtwpg `gmgeatx jmd

    hoxtx xgpug to kgmitbgm tbg xbjdoy oe tbg ewtwpg to

    amhpgjxg vjptahavjmtx pjtaomjk hboahgx xwvvoptami am,

    xtatwtaom `wakdami eop tbg komi tgpl- Xhbokjpx voamt to

    gaibt ejhtopx eop xtpgmitbgmami geeghtaug jmd vpodwh,

    taug jipgglgmtx>

    Pwkgx tbjt xtj aka~g grvghtjtaomx3

    Ameopljtaom to xgmd jmd pghgaug xaimjkx3

    Hkgjp xtjmdjpdx3

    Ameopljtaom j`owt holvkajmhg3

    Hpgda kg vgmjktagx3

    Gmeophglgmt lghbjmaxlx3

    Hoovgpjtaom tbpowib ameopljtaom xbjpami3 jmd

    Pgiwkjtami tbg mwl`gp oe vjptahavjmtx-

    88- Kgviokd jmd Mamhah+@gqomd tbg Auopq Toygp-

    84- A`ad-+ :81-

    87- Bjmx N- Lopigmtbjw+Vokatahx Jlomi Mjtaomx> Tbg Xtpwiikg eop Voygp jmd Vgjhg "Mgy Qopc> LhIpjy,Bakk+ :118!3 Domjkd G-Mwghbtgpkgam+Jlgpahj Ougphollattgd> Wmatgd Xtjtgx Mjtaomjk Amtgpgxtx am tbg :126x "Kgramitom> Wmaugpxatq oe Cgmtwhcq Vpgxx+

    :127!3 Lgjpxbgalgp+ Tpjigdq oe Ipgjt Voygp Vokatahx-

    85- Adgjx am tbax vjpjipjvb jpg dpjym epol Kgviokd jmd Mamhah+@gqomd tbg Auopq Toygp-

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    11/22 TBG MOPTB COPGJM MWHKGJP AXXWG 59

    Vokahq jmd amxtpwlgmtjk pgkgujmhg vpouadg j kgmitbq

    kaxt oe ujpaj`kgx eop grjlamami tbg homdataomx eop xwh,

    hgxxewk kgjdgpxbav epol tbg tov jmd laddkg eop geegh,

    taug vokahq jmd amxtatwtaom `wakdami-

    Pgkjtami Amxtatwtaomjkaxt Tbgopq jmd Vpjhtahg

    am tbg Mwmm,Kwijp Hjxg

    Tbax vjvgp vpohggdx `q grjlamami tbg Mwmm,Kwijp

    HTP hjxg jx j cgq vpoipjl am tbg Hkamtom

    howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom vokahq amatajtaug-

    Holvkglgmtjpq Mjtaomjk Amtgpgxtx

    Iougpmlgmt vokahqljcgpx jmd mjtaomjk xghwpatq xhbok,

    jpx gmijigd am vpokaegpjtaom vokahqljcami ygpg jlomi

    tbg eapxt to xga~g tbg ovvoptwmatq eop eoplami mgy pg,

    kjtaomxbavx jlomi tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx+ Pwxxaj+ jmd tbg

    eoplgp Xouagt pgvw`kahx eokkoyami tbg ejkk oe tbg @gp,kam Yjkk- Igopig @wxbx motaom oe j mgy yopkd opdgp

    yjx xaimaeahjmt eop tbg grghwtaug `pjmhb jmd gxvg,

    hajkkq tbg vpolotaom oe mgy amatajtaugx `q tbg Xtjtg

    Dgvjptlgmt jmd tbg Dgegmxg Dgvjptlgmt-89 Dwpami

    tbg eokkoyami Hkamtom jdlamaxtpjtaom+ am pgekghtami om

    bax grvgpagmhgx jx xghpgtjpq oe dgegmxg+ Vgppq motgx

    tbg xaimaeahjmhg oe tbg voxtHokd Yjp vgpaod eop gx,

    tj`kaxbami jm geeghtaug W-X- vjptmgpxbav yatb Pwxxaj

    am tbg xghwpatq xvbgpg- Hjptgp jmd Vgppq voamt to tbg

    gjpkq voxtHokd Yjp daxhwxxaomx wpiami Pwxxajx

    vokahq gkatg to `gholg amtgipjtaomaxtx to jhbagug j

    mgy+ xgke,pgxvghtami vkjhg am tbg yopkd opdgp-82

    Tbg gjpkq+ ekwad mjtwpg oe tbg amtgpmjtaomjk gmuapom,

    lgmt dwpami tbg eapxt Hkamtom jdlamaxtpjtaom pgzwapgd

    jdnwxtlgmtx to adgmtaeq tbg holvkglgmtjpatagx oe W-X-

    jmd Pwxxajm mjtaomjk amtgpgxtx- DOD gmijigd am pg,

    vgjtgd pgdgxaimx oe Mwmm,Kwijp vpoipjlx am tbg ama,

    tajk xtjigx to jdjvt atx graxtami vjttgpmx oe hoovgpj,

    taom to tbg pgjkatagx oe Pwxxaj jt tbax xtjig oe atx hom,

    tamwowx pguokwtaom- Tbg vjttgpm amhkwdgd tbg

    jdlamaxtpjtaomx amtgpgxt am xbjvami tbg mgy Pwxxajm

    iougpmlgmtx vpgegpgmhgx- Vgppq ypatgx tbjt tbg Mwmm,

    Kwijp vpoipjlx ygpg kjwmhbgd ybgm tbg mgy Pwxxaj

    yjx am atx gjpkq xtjtg jmd mggdgd allgdajtg jxxaxtjmhg>tbg vokatahjk `jhcdpov jmd ghomolah lotaujtaom oe

    Pwxxajx kgjdgpx am tbg gjpkq voxtHokd Yjp vgpaod

    ygpg+ jx yg moy cmoy+ totjkkq daeegpgmt epol tbg

    ujkwgx jmd vpgegpgmhgx oe tbg Xouagt pgialg-81

    Am tbg gjpkq Mwmm,Kwijp vgpaod+ tbg mjtaomx amuokugd

    jkxo amtpodwhgd wmazwg+ mgy xatwjtaomx-46 DOD geeoptx

    bjd to vpohggd am jhhopdjmhg yatb j tbpgg,vjptq eop,

    gaim vokahq jvvpojhb amuokuami tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx+ Pwx,

    xaj+ jmd Wcpjamg-4: Tbg W-X- jvvpojhb guokugd zwahckq

    epol `akjtgpjk to tpakjtgpjk davkoljhq+ grtgmdami tbg

    Mwmm,Kwijp jvvpojhb to dgmwhkgjpa~g Wcpjamg jmdgmijig tbg Wcpjamajmx am grtgmxaug lakatjpq,to,lakatjpq

    homtjhtx- Yopcami jkomi homxtpwhtauaxt kamgx+ tbg

    Hkamtom jdlamaxtpjtaom tbpowib davkoljhq jmd

    vokahqljcami jttglvtgd to pgeopl Pwxxajm jmd Wcpja,

    majm ujkwgx jmd vpgegpgmhgx pgijpdami tpjdataomjk jmd

    komi,xtjmdami xghwpatq tbpgjtx+ jx ygkk jx to oeegp ov,

    voptwmatagx eop j lopg hoovgpjtaug ewtwpg eop jkk vjp,

    tahavjmtx am tbg mgy yopkd opdgp+ op jt kgjxt tbg mgy

    pgiaomjk opdgp-

    Pgxowphgx jmd Xwvvopt eop Pwkgx

    Tbg adgj oe xvghaeah+ hoovgpjtaug eopgaim vokahagx jmd

    dgegmxg vpoipjlx homtamwgd to grvjmd tbg holvkgr,

    atq oe xbjvami holvkglgmtjpq mjtaomjk amtgpgxtx- Eop

    grjlvkg+ ybgm mgiotajtami tbg Xtpjtgiah Jplx Pgdwh,

    taom Tjkcx "XTJPT AA! Hokd Yjp jplx homtpok pgialg+

    tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx bjd to gmijig tbg xtakk,eoplami Pwx,

    89- @wxb jmd Xhoyhpoet+J Yopkd Tpjmxeoplgd-

    82- Hjptgp jmd Vgppq+Vpgugmtaug Dgegmxg+ 7:-

    81- A`ad-+ 91-

    46- Am xgugpjk jptahkgx+ vpolamgmt amtgpmjtaomjk pgkjtaomx xhbokjpx jpiwgd eop tbg amhpgjxgd xtj`akatq jmd xghwpatq oe voxtHokd YjpGwpovg+ yatb Wcpjamg jx j mwhkgjp ygjvomx xtjtg3 xgg Nobm N- Lgjpxbgalgp+ Tbg Hjxg eop j Wcpjamajm Mwhkgjp Dgtgppgmt+Eopgaim

    Jeejapx "Xwllgp :118!3 jmd Xhott D- Xjijm jmd Cgmmgtb M- Yjkt~+ Tbg Xvpgjd oe Mwhkgjp Ygjvomx> J Dg`jtg Pgmgygd"Mgy Qopc>

    Y- Y- Moptom % Holvjmq+ 0668!-

    4:- Hjptgp jmd Vgppq+Vpgugmtaug Dgegmxg+ 28-

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    12/2252 TBG COPGJ GHOMOLAH AMXTATWTG

    xajm dglohpjhq+ yatb atx mgy+ jhtaug+ jmd epjilgmtgd

    Dwljjm gmuapomlgmt ljpcgdkq daeegpgmt epol tbg

    apom pwkg oe tbg Xouagt Hollwmaxt Vjptq kgjdgpxbav

    dwpami Hokd Yjp gpj- Tbg vjpkajlgmtjpajmx homhgpmx

    j`owt tbg xtjtwx oe tbg homtamwatq oe tbg Marom,gpj

    J@L Tpgjtq ygpg ewptbgp holvkahjtgd `q baxtopahjk

    Pwxxajm xghwpatq homhgpmx pgjyjcgmgd `q tbg amataj,taugx eop MJTOx gjxtyjpd grvjmxaom- Jdlamaxtpjtaom

    howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom vokahq geeoptx yatb tbg Pwxxajmx

    homtamwgd jkomi tbg vjtb xtjptgd `q Mwmm,Kwijp to

    amhkwdg vpoipjlx oe ipgjtgp holvkgratq jmd dgvtb ougp

    talg-40

    Am tbgap `ooc+ Vpgugmtaug Dgegmxg+ Hjptgp jmd Vgppq

    daxhwxx gjpkq jdlamaxtpjtaom jvvpojhbgx jmd tbgap gr,

    vgpagmhgx jx DOD oeeahajkx am tbg eapxt Hkamtom jdlam,

    axtpjtaom- Jx daxhwxxgd j`oug+ tbg Igopig @wxb jd,

    lamaxtpjtaom jmd tbgm tbg Hkamtom jdlamaxtpjtaom+ am

    xwvvoptami tbg amatajtaug oe Xgmjtop Mwmm jmd XgmjtopKwijp+ pgxvomdgd zwahckq to tbg mgy tbpgjt oe mwhkgjp,

    jplgd eoplgp Xouagt pgvw`kahx- DOD vpoipjlx+ wm,

    dgp tbg jwtbopa~ami Mwmm,Kwijp kgiaxkjtaom+ jddpgxxgd

    kooxg,mwcgx axxwgx to gkalamjtg mwhkgjp ygjvomx jmd

    eaxxakg ljtgpajk am Wcpjamg+ Cj~jcbxtjm+ jmd @gkjpwx-48

    Xvghajk vponghtx xwhb jx Vponght Xjvvbapg pglougd

    ygjvomx,ipjdg vkwtomawl jmd gmpahbgd wpjmawl epol

    Cj~jcbxtjm jmd amhkwdgd amtgpmjk W-X- hokkj`opjtaom

    jlomi tbg DOD+ Dgvjptlgmt oe Gmgpiq+ Dgvjptlgmt

    oe Xtjtg+ jmd Hgmtpjk Amtgkkaigmhg Jigmhq "HAJ!-44 J

    vjttgpm oe xalakjp geeoptx tbjt amhopvopjtgd mgy lgl,

    gpx amto tbg vpgegppgd yopkd opdgp oe tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx

    ax jkxo guadgmt dwpami tbg xghomd Hkamtom jdlamaxtpj,

    taom+ eop grjlvkg+ yatb pgxvght to Hbamj-47

    Dwpami tbg xghomd Hkamtom jdlamaxtpjtaom+ Dgegmxg

    Xghpgtjpq Yakkajl X- Hobgm homtamwgd tbg tpgmd to,

    yjpd amtgpmjtaomjk amxtatwtaom `wakdami oplwktakjtgpjkaxl-45 Am Hkamtom,gpj DOD vokahq dohw,

    lgmtx+ xwhb jx tbg Jmmwjk Pgvoptx to tbg Vpgxadgmt

    jmd Homipgxx+ tbgpg yjx j xtgjdq dpwl`gjt eop tbg

    Wmatgd Xtjtgx to tjcg j kgjdami pokg am xwvvoptami am,

    tgpmjtaomjk amxtatwtaomx-49 Tbg 0666 pgvopt baibkaibtx

    tbg xaimaeahjmhg oe tbg W-X- pokg am xbjvami tbg am,

    tgpmjtaomjk gmuapomlgmt tbpowib lwktakjtgpjk jkkajmhgx+

    tpjmxvjpgmhq+ tpwxt+ jmd homeadgmhg `wakdami jx ygkk

    jx tbpowib kalatami djmigpowx lakatjpq tghbmokoiagx-42

    Tbg xghtaom om djmigpx jmd tbpgjtx eohwxgx om pg,

    dwhami op gkalamjtami mwhkgjp+ `aokoiahjk+ jmd hbgla,

    hjk "M@H! ygjvomx- Tbg pgvopt xwvvoptx graxtami jplxhomtpok jipgglgmtx+ amhkwdami tbg W-X-,Moptb Copgjm

    Jipggd Epjlgyopc3 HTP vpoipjlx yatb Pwxxaj+

    Wcpjamg+ jmd Cj~jcbxtjm3 tbg Hbglahjk Ygjvomx Hom,

    ugmtaom3 tbg Mwhkgjp Mom,Vpokaegpjtaom Tpgjtq3 jmd tbg

    Laxxakg Tghbmokoiq Homtpok Pgialg- Tbg pgvopt jkxo

    baibkaibtx tbg xaimaeahjmhg oe adgmtaeqami jmd homtpok,

    kami mwhkgjp eaxxakg ljtgpajkx tbjt hjm `g wxgd eop M@H

    ygjvomx jmd dgkaugpq xqxtglx-

    Tbg Dgegmxg Dgvjptlgmt jkxo pgegpx to tbg

    jdlamaxtpjtaomx mwhkgjp voxtwpg xtjtglgmtx jmd pg,

    40- Eop grjlvkg+ dwpami tbg xghomd Hkamtom jdlamaxtpjtaom+ Xghpgtjpq oe Dgegmxg Yakkajl X- Hobgm voamtgd to tbg homtamwjtaom oe jplx

    homtpok vpoipjlx+ xwhb jx tbg :112 Hkamtom,Qgktxam Loxhoy xwllat+ jmd tbg dgugkovlgmt oe j noamt W-X-,Pwxxajm Loxhoy hgmtgp eopameopljtaom xbjpami om jkkaxtah laxxakgx jmd xvjhg kjwmhb ugbahkgx- Tbg hgmtgp amhkwdgd tbg jmmowmhglgmt oe gjpkq kjwmhb dgtghtaom+gjpkq yjpmami xqxtglx+ jmd tghbmahjk vpoipjlx om o`xgpujtaom xjtgkkatgx- Tbgxg grtgmxaug vpoipjl dgugkovlgmtx pgekght tbg amhpgjxami

    `gmgeatx oe hoovgpjtaug jmd holvkglgmtjpq xghwpatq vpgegpgmhgx- Xgg Yakkajl X- Hobgm+ Jmmwjk Pgvopt to tbg Vpgxadgmt jmd tbg

    Homipgxx "Yjxbamitom+ D-H-> W-X- Dgvjptlgmt oe Dgegmxg+ 0666!+ 295+ yyy-dgegmxgkamc-lak/grghxgh/jdp0666/jdp0666-vde-

    48- Hjptgp jmd Vgppq+Vpgugmtaug Dgegmxg+ 51-

    44- A`ad-+ 59-

    47- Xghpgtjpq oe Dgegmxg Hobgm motgd xalakjp amtgmtaomx eop `pamiami Hbamj amto tbg amtgpmjtaomjk hollwmatq `q xggcami Hbamgxg

    jdbgpgmhg to amtgpmjtaomjk xtjmdjpdx om ygjvomx vpokaegpjtaom jmd om amtgpmjtaomjk tpjdg jmd bwljm paibtx amatajtaugx jmd q amhpgjxami

    Hbamjx tpjmxvjpgmhq jx ygkk jx amxtatwtami homeadgmhg,`wakdami lgjxwpgx xwhb jx lakatjpq,to,lakatjpq grhbjmigx3 xgg Hobgm+JmmwjkPgvopt to tbg Vpgxadgmt jmd tbg Homipgxx+ ::-

    45- Pwiiag+Lwktakjtgpjkaxl Ljttgpx-

    49- Grjlvkgx gkoy epol tbg 0666Jmmwjk Pgvopt to tbg Vpgxadgmt jmd tbg Homipgxx jpg akkwxtpjtaug oe tbg jdlamaxtpjtaomx homxaxtgmt

    vokahagx epol :115 tbowib 0666-

    42- Hobgm+Jmmwjk Pgvopt to tbg Vpgxadgmt jmd tbg Homipgxx+ 47-

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    13/22 TBG MOPTB COPGJM MWHKGJP AXXWG 51

    voptx- Tbg 0666 jmmwjk pgvopt glvbjxa~gx tbg alvop,

    tjmhg oe W-X- mwhkgjp ygjvomx to dgtgp jiipgxxaom

    tbpowib j yadg pjmig oe pgxvomxgx+ jkomi yatb tbg

    j`akatq to bgdig jijamxt ewtwpg tbpgjtx- Xghpgtjpq Hobgm

    jkxo pgameophgd tbg W-X- hollatlgmt to tbg xtpjtgiah

    jplx homtpok pgialg jmd tbg jdlamaxtpjtaomx amtgmt to

    homdwht ewptbgp jplx homtpok tjkcx yatb Pwxxaj `q`giammami j powmd oe XTJPT AAA mgiotajtaomx- Eop

    grjlvkg+ tbg XTJPT AAA amatajtaug yjx jmmowmhgd je,

    tgp tbg Hkamtom,Qgktxam xwllat am :119 am Bgkxamca-41

    Xghpgtjpq Hobgm homtamwgd to jddpgxx W-X- xwvvopt

    eop j lwktakjtgpjk+ pgiaomjk opdgp am Gwpovg- Bg xtpgxxgd

    W-X- dgegmxg o`nghtaugx am Gwpovg jmd tbg xaimaeahjmhg

    oe hoovgpjtaug pgkjtaomx yatb Pwxxaj+ Wcpjamg+ Hgmtpjk

    jmd Gjxtgpm Gwpovg+ jmd MJTO- Tbg 0666 jmmwjk pg,

    vopt voamtgd owt tbjt tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx+ Pwxxaj+ jmd

    Gwpovg xbowkd jkxo yopc toigtbgp yatb jkk tbg mgy

    amdgvgmdgmt xtjtgx to howmtgp tbg vpokaegpjtaom oeYLD jmd laxxakg dgkaugpq xqxtglx-76

    Hobgm xamikgd owt Jxajm pgiaomjk pgkjtaomx jx ygkk- Bg

    hatgd tbg alvoptjmhg oe tpjdataomjk dgegmxg pgkjtaom,

    xbavx yatb Njvjm+ Jwxtpjkaj+ jmd tbg POC jx ygkk jx

    gmijiglgmt yatb Hbamj- Jijam tbg xaimaeahjmhg oe tbg

    Jipggd Epjlgyopc ax tpwlvgtgd- Tbg xghpgtjpq vkjhgd

    xvghajk glvbjxax om tbg W-X-,Njvjm xghwpatq pgkjtaom,

    xbav+ ybahb bg hjkkgd tbg kamhbvam oe W-X- xghwpatq

    am Jxaj-7: Hobgmx eamjk DOD jmmwjk pgvopt eohwxgd

    om ljamtjamami tpjdataomjk pgkjtaomxbavx `wt dad mot

    glvbjxa~g vkjmx op vpoipjlx eop pgeoplami op tpjmx,eoplami Gwpovgjm jmd Jxajm xghwpatq jkkajmhgx-70

    Moplx+ Adgmtatq+ jmd Cmoykgdig

    Tbg alvoptjmhg oe tbg mggd eop `wakdami tbg moplx+

    adgmtatagx+ jmd cmoykgdig eop dgugkovami amxtatwtaom,

    jkkq pgkgujmt vokahq ax mot baibkaibtgd am DOD dohw,

    lgmtx- Tbgpg jpg mo pgegpgmhgx am tbg 0666 jmmwjk

    pgvopt to j `pojdgp pokg eop tbg DOD op tbg Wmatgd

    Xtjtgx am amxtatwtaom `wakdami eop vpolotami kgijk moplx+

    kgiataljtg hkjalx+ jmd vpgegpgmhgx eop voxataug amtgp,

    jhtaomx jmd hbjmig- Tbg pgvopt dogx lgmtaom gjpkq

    Mwmm,Kwijp `jppagpx am tgplx oe ougpholami 76 qgjpx

    oe Hokd Yjp laxtpwxt yatb tbg Pwxxajmx- Am tbg Hjptgpjmd Vgppq jhhowmt+ xolg lgmtaom ax jkxo ljdg oe

    Hkamtom jmd Iopg amtgpugmtaomx to dgugkov tpwxt yatb

    tbg mgy iougpmlgmtx oe Pwxxaj+ Wcpjamg+ Cj~jcbxtjm+

    jmd @gkjpwx-78 @wt tbg oeeahajk DOD dohwlgmtx jpg

    kjpigkq xakgmt om `wakdami amxtatwtaomjk moplx+ adgmtatq+

    jmd cmoykgdig-

    Hoxtx jmd Homxgzwgmhgx

    Tbg cgq hoxtx jmd homxgzwgmhgx oe amtgpmjtaomjk am,

    xtatwtaomx jpg jkxo mot lgmtaomgd am dgtjak am DOD jm,

    mwjk pgvoptx- Hjptgp jmd Vgppq do motg xolg oe tbghomxgzwgmhgx oe Mwmm,Kwijp am tgplx oe `wdigtjpq

    jmd vgpeopljmhg pgxwktx- Eop amxtjmhg+ tbgq baibkaibt

    $0-4 `akkaom am ewmdami jx oe lad,:112- Tbgq io om to

    voamt to tbg xwhhgxx oe 46 gmiamggpami vponghtx am

    Pwxxaj to `wakd xjegiwjpdx eop graxtami xtohcvakgx+ dax,

    ljmtkg ygjvomx jmd laxxakgx+ jmd homugpt dgegmxg

    amdwxtpq to hauakajm vwpvoxgx- Hjptgp jmd Vgppq jkxo

    ypatg oe tbg xwhhgxx oe dgxtpoqami 4+266 mwhkgjp

    ygjvomx+ pglouami mwhkgjp ygjvomx epol jkk mom,

    Pwxxajm eoplgp Xouagt pgvw`kahx+ jmd gkalamjtami vpo,

    kaegpjtaom tbpgjtx am @gkjpwx+ Cj~jcbxtjm+ jmd Wcpjamg-

    Vgppq jmd Hjptgp xtpgxx tbjt tbgq mgugp grvghtgd tbaxjxtowmdami dgipgg oe xwhhgxx jmd hpgdat Mwmm,Kwijp

    amatajtaugx eop mo gjpkq voxtHokd Yjp kooxg,mwcgx

    vpo`kglx-74 Am jddataom+ Hjptgp jmd Vgppq jttpa`wtg vjpt

    oe tbgxg ipgjt xwhhgxxgx to tbg grtpjopdamjpq hoov,

    gpjtaom amxadg tbg Yjxbamitom vokahqljcami hollw,

    matq- Mgugptbgkgxx+ tbg Mwmm,Kwijp vpoipjlljtah xwh,

    hgxxgx jpg mot tagd to tbg kjpigp axxwgx pgijpdami `wakd,

    41- A`ad-+ 75-

    76- A`ad-+ 1:6-

    7:- A`ad-+ :6::-

    70- Tbax kjhc oe glvbjxax ax hwpaowx holvjpgd yatb tbg dpwl`gjt yatbam tbg DOD to tpjmxeopl tbg W-X- jplgd eophgx tbpowibowt tbgvoxt,Hokd Yjp gpj+ epol tbg Hkamtom jdlamaxtpjtaom to tbg vpgxgmt Igopig Y- @wxb jdlamaxtpjtaom-

    78- Hjptgp jmd Vgppq+Vpgugmtaug Dgegmxg+ 95-

    74- A`ad-+ 9599-

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    14/2296 TBG COPGJ GHOMOLAH AMXTATWTG

    ami j hollwmatq oe xbjpgd moplx+ ujkwgx+ jmd adgmta,

    tagx am tgplx oe amtgpmjtaomjk amxtatwtaomx+ jplx homtpok

    jmd xghwpatq pgialgx+ op lwktakjtgpjk opijma~jtaomx-

    Amxtatwtaomx jmd Vokahqljcami

    Tbg eaetb dalgmxaom oe vokahq pgkgujmhg pgkjtgx amtgp,mjtaomjk amxtatwtaomx jmd tbg pokg oe tbg vokahqljcami

    hollwmatq- Tbg mjtaomjk xghwpatq vokahqljcami hol,

    lwmatq hjm `g jm ovgm,gmdgd mgtyopc- Tbg hollw,

    matq am tbax hjxg amhkwdgx xvghaeah W-X- iougpmlgmt

    kgiaxkjtopx+ dgvjptlgmtx+ jmd jigmhagx jx ygkk jx wma,

    ugpxatagx jmd pgxgjphb amxtatwtgx jx vkjqgpx op xtjcg,

    bokdgpx am howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom vokahqljcami- Tbax

    vokahqljcami hollwmatq ax mot kalatgd xokgkq to tbg

    W-X- Dgegmxg Dgvjptlgmt jmd xvghajk jigmhagx am,

    uokugd am Mwmm,Kwijp alvkglgmtjtaom- Jx daxhwxxgd

    mgrt+ omg grjlvkg oe geeghtaug vokahq alvkglgmtjtaom

    yatbam tbg yadgp vokahqljcami hollwmatq yjx tbgDODx tov xghpgt Ovgpjtaom Xjvvbapg+ homdwhtgd am

    :114-

    Xjvvbapg yjx tbg eapxt xvghajk ovgpjtaom alvkglgmtgd

    jx vjpt oe Mwmm,Kwijp- Hjptgp jmd Vgppq xtpomikq gl,

    vbjxa~g tbg xwhhgxx oe Ovgpjtaom Xjvvbapg am tbg eapxt

    Hkamtom tgpl-77 Tbg ovgpjtaom pgxwktgd am tbg pgloujk

    epol Cj~jcbxtjm oe 566 cakoipjlx oe baibkq gmpahbgd

    wpjmawl+ op tbg gzwaujkgmt oe gmowib eaxxakg ljtgpajk

    eop 56 Bapoxbalj,Mjijxjca mwhkgjp `ol`x- Tbg W-X-

    iougpmlgmt vokahq hollwmatqYjxbamitom amtgp,

    jigmhq vkjqgpxamhkwdgd tbg Dgvjptlgmtx oe Dg,egmxg+ Gmgpiq+ jmd Xtjtg+ jkomi yatb tbg HAJ jmd W-X-

    Jap Eophg- Hjptgp jmd Vgppq pgvopt tbg xwhhgxxewk am,

    tgpmjk jmd grtgpmjk hoopdamjtaom yatb tbg iougpmlgmtx

    oe Pwxxaj jmd Cj~jcbxtjmjkk ljdg voxxa`kg wmdgp

    tbg wl`pgkkj oe tbg :110 Mwmm,Kwijp kgiaxkjtaom jmd

    alvkglgmtami vpoipjlx-

    Hjptgp jmd Vgppq tpjhg tbg igmgxax oe tbg Mwmm,Kwijp

    jvvpojhb to tbg xgmjtopx homhgpmx dwpami tbg :126x

    Hokd Yjp qgjpx j`owt mwhkgjp jhhadgmtx-75 Xgmjtopx

    Mwmm jmd Kwijp ygpg jt tbg eopgepomt oe W-X- hom,

    ipgxxaomjk jhtauatagx pgijpdami gxtj`kaxbami mwhkgjp paxc

    pgdwhtaom hgmtgpx- Tbgap amatajtaugx amhkwdgd jigmhagx

    jmd opijma~jtaomx owtxadg oe iougpmlgmt- Gjpkq ge,

    eoptx `q Xgmjtop Mwmm jmd Xgmjtop Kwijp jmd tbgap

    xtjeex amuokugd yopc yatb tbamc tjmcx jmd wmaugpxa,

    tagx- Hjptgpx kjtg :126x Bjpujpd vpokaegpjtaom xtwdagxom tbg Xouagt mwhkgjp jpxgmjk kgd to j xgpagx oe lggt,

    amix boxtgd `q Bjpujpdx @gkegp Hgmtgp jkomi yatb

    Vgppqx jeeakajtaom yatb Xtjmeopd Wmaugpxatq-79 Yopc,

    xbovx amhkwdgd grvgptx epol Mgy Qopcx Hjpmgiag

    Hopvopjtaom jmd Yjxbamitomx @poocamix Amxtatwtaom-

    Tbax kooxgkq howvkgd momvpokaegpjtaom hollwmatq xgt

    tbg xtjig eop pjaxami homhgpmx j`owt mwhkgjp jmd eax,

    xakg ljtgpajk xjegiwjpdx eokkoyami tbg hokkjvxg oe tbg

    Xouagt Wmaom- Tbg jxtomaxbamikq pjvad vpoipgxx oe

    Mwmm,Kwijp kgiaxkjtaom+ ybahb vjxxgd yatbam mamg djqx

    oe atx eapxt dpjet+ amhkwdgd Xgmjtg vjxxjig om 02 Mo,

    ugl`gp :11: `q jm 25,5 uotg- Tbg Bowxg oe Pgvpg,xgmtjtaugx ugpxaom oe tbg `akk+ xwvvoptgd `q Hbjapljm

    Kgx Jxvam oe tbg Bowxg Jplgd Xgpuahgx Hollattgg

    ybo yjx kjtgp Vpgxadgmt Hkamtomx eapxt xghpgtjpq oe

    dgegmxg+ vjxxgd om j uoahg uotg-

    Tbgxg vpgkalamjpq geeoptx am `wakdami vpokaegpjtaom

    cmoykgdig jmd kgiaxkjtaom ygpg grtgmdgd tbpowib tbg

    :118 xbaet oe Hjptgp jmd Vgppq epol jhjdglaj to iou,

    gpmlgmt xgpuahg- Hjptgp motgx tbjt to xvgjpbgjd Mwmm,

    Kwijp alvkglgmtjtaom am opdgp to jxxaxt Pwxxaj am xjeg,

    iwjpdami mwhkgjp xtohcvakgx pgzwapgd j ybokg mgy

    opijma~jtaom-72

    Bg voamtx jkxo to xtjptami `q hpjetamij xgt oe o`nghtaugx jmd adgmtaeqami oeeahajkx am vjptmgp

    howmtpagx to hoopdamjtg geeoptx-

    Amatajtami j mgy mjtaomjk xghwpatq vpoipjl pgzwapgd

    eoplami j hoopdamjtami amtgpjigmhq ipowv jx ygkk jx

    ougpholami `jppagpx to alvkglgmtjtaom- Hjptgp jmd

    Vgppq io om to glvbjxa~g tbg xaimaeahjmt `jppagpx tbjt

    hbjkkgmigd Mwmm,Kwijp alvkglgmtjtaom- Tbg motopa,

    owxkq hwl`gpxolg Vgmtjiom jhzwaxataom xqxtgl bjd

    to grtgmd to xvgmdami dokkjpx om ougpxgjx gmiamggpami

    77- A`ad-+ 5752-

    75- A`ad-+ 96-

    79- A`ad-+ 99-

    72- A`ad-+ 98-

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    15/22 TBG MOPTB COPGJM MWHKGJP AXXWG 9:

    vponghtx+ ybahb am twpm pgzwapgd xolgtbami baxtopq

    bjd mgugp `geopg vgplattgd+ tbjt ax+ pwmmami W-X-

    vpoipjlx yatb jmd yatbam tbg Xouagt Wmaom-71

    Tbg gjpkq Mwmm,Kwijp vgpaod jkxo lgt pgxaxtjmhg am

    tbg W-X- Homipgxx- Homipgxxaomjk `jppagpx amuokugd

    pgugpxami j lamd,xgt epol dgegmxg ugpxwx tbg Xouagttbpgjt to xvgmdami eop Pwxxajm lakatjpq bowxami jmd

    dgegmxg amdwxtpq homugpxaom to hauakajm+ hollgphajk

    vwpxwatx- Iaug tbg pjvad vjhg oe Mwmm,Kwijp kgiaxkj,

    taom+ alvkglgmtjtaom lomgq bjd to `g pgvpoipjllgd

    epol tbg :118 dgegmxg `wdigt+ ybahb pgzwapgd lwhb

    `wpgjwhpjtah yopc am jdnwxtami jvvpovpajtaomx-56 Am

    jddataom+ tbg okd jplx homtpok `wpgjwhpjhq+ hgmtgpgd

    am DOD jmd tbg Xtjtg Dgvjptlgmt+ bjd to xbaet epol

    Hokd Yjp jplx homtpok vgpxvghtaugx jmd vjttgpmx to

    mgy jvvpojhbgx-

    @jppagpx jkxo graxtgd yatbam tbg mgy jmd pgkjtaugkqwmxtj`kg Pwxxaj- Eop amxtjmhg+ Hjptgp jmd Vgppq motg

    tbg vpo`kglx oe hoopdamjtaom yatb tbg eoplgp Xouagt

    mwhkgjp pgxgjphb jmd dgugkovlgmt jigmhq+ Lamjtol+

    gxvghajkkq am pgijpd to mgy tjxcx oe daxljmtkami mwhkgjp

    ygjvomx jmd tbg komi,tgpl xjegiwjpdx jmd xtopjig

    oe eaxxakg ljtgpajkx-5:

    Tbg ypatami am kjtgp DOD dohwlgmtx pgugjkx j lod,

    gpjtaom+ op dghkamg+ am tbg dgegmxg xghpgtjpqx amataj,

    taugx eop grtgmdami tbg DOD pokg jmd wakdami om gjpkq

    Mwmm,Kwijp xwhhgxxgx- Eop amxtjmhg+ `q tbg talg oe

    tbg 0666 jmmwjk pgvopt+ Xghpgtjpq Hobgm eohwxgd omj mjppoygp pjmig oe axxwgx yatb pgxvght to

    howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom vokahq- Bg hatgd tbg alvoptjmhg

    oe tbg jplgd eophgx hjvjhatq to pgxvomd to jxql,

    lgtpah tbpgjtx jmd yjx ljamkq homhgpmgd yatb eaibt,

    ami om jm M@H `jttkgeagkd+ yatb j ujiwg xgmtgmhg om

    amhpgjxami wmxvghaeagd dokkjp jlowmtx eop amxtatwtaomx

    oe howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom-50

    Howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom jx howmtgp,M@H ovgpjtaomx eop

    `jttkgeagkd eophgx ax j xaimaeahjmt ovgpjtaomjk hjvj`ak,

    atq+ `wt jt tbg xtpjtgiah kgugk at ejkkx xbopt oe tbg Mwmm,

    Kwijp o`nghtaugx oe gkalamjtami jmd xjegiwjpdami

    mwhkgjp ygjvomx jmd xtohcvakgx- Tbg eohwx oe tbg

    0666 dohwlgmt jmd dgegmxg vokahq ax ljamkq dapghtgd

    toyjpd homtamwami tbg lodgpma~jtaom oe graxtami HokdYjp kgijhq ygjvomx xqxtglx+ op vkjteoplx+ xwhb jx

    tjmcx+ bgkahovtgpx+ japhpjet hjppagpx+ xw`ljpamgx+ jmd

    ngt japhpjet+ ybakg homdwhtami pgxgjphb jmd dgugkov,

    lgmt eop hwttami,gdig tghbmokoiagx-58 Tbg jmmwjk pg,

    vopt vpovoxgx tbg mggdx eop ygjvomx xqxtgl dgugk,

    ovlgmt wxami Iwke Yjp xhgmjpaox- Tbg pgvopt jkxo

    vpgxgmtx ameopljtaom om omioami lodgpma~jtaomx xwhb

    jx tbg Pguokwtaom am Lakatjpq Jeejapx eop jhzwapami mgy

    tghbmokoiagx jmd tbg Pguokwtaom am @wxamgxx Jeejapx

    eop jdovtami tbg vpgxwlgd `gttgp `wxamgxx vpjhtahgx

    oe tbg hopvopjtg xghtop- Hpatahx hbjpig tbjt tbgxg jpg

    jhtwjkkq lamop jmd amxaimaeahjmt hbjmigx jmd j mop,ljk vjpt oe tbg Vgmtjiomx amtgpmjk eaibt eop dgegmxg

    dokkjpx-54 Tbg guadgmhg epol oeeahajk dohwlgmtx pg,

    ugjkx j doymyjpd tpgmd+ op jt kgjxt j kgugkami oee+ am

    DODx glvbjxax om howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom vokahq jmd

    vpoipjlx-

    Eamdamix jmd Homhkwxaomx

    Tbg dohwlgmtjpq guadgmhg xwiigxtx jm gjpkq vgjc am

    Hkamtom,gpj howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom vokahqljcami- Tbg gx,

    xgmtajk pokg oe cgq dgvjptlgmt kgjdgpx+ xwhb jx Xghpg,

    tjpq oe Dgegmxg Vgppq jmd Jxxaxtjmt Xghpgtjpq oe Dg,egmxg Hjptgp+ am amekwgmhami tbg Yjxbamitom

    vokahqljcami vpohgxx ax loxt xaimaeahjmt- Jddgd

    ygaibt am tgplx oe vokatahjk amatajtaug jmd kgiaxkjtaom jx

    ygkk jx `wdigtjpq xwvvopt yjx vpouadgd `q grvgpa,

    gmhgd+ xgmaop kgiaxkjtopx- Am tgplx oe vokahq pgkgujmhg+

    xgugpjk voamtx xtjmd owt am jddataom to tbg ougpjkk jx,

    xgxxlgmt oe geeghtaug kgjdgpxbav epol xgugpjk kgugkx+

    71- A`ad- 94-

    56- A`ad- 94-

    5:- A`ad- 26

    50- Hobgm+Jmmwjk Pgvopt to tbg Vpgxadgmt jmd tbg Homipgxx+ :1-

    58- A`ad-+ 2-

    54- Igopig H- Yakxom+ Tbax Yjp Pgjkkq Ljttgpx> Amxadg tbg Eaibt eop Dgegmxg Dokkjpx "Yjxbamitom+ D-H-> HZ Vpgxx+ 0666!-

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    16/2290 TBG COPGJ GHOMOLAH AMXTATWTG

    amhkwdami tbg dgegmxg xghpgtjpq+ Homipgxx+ tbamc tjmcx+

    jmd alvkglgmtami `wpgjwhpjhagx+ jkomi yatb xalakjp

    kgjdgpxbav kgugkx yatbam tbg eopgaim iougpmlgmtx am,

    uokugd-

    Mjtaomjk amtgpgxtx am tbg Mwmm,Kwijp hjxg ygpg

    holvkglgmtjpq jmd ygpg grvpgxxgd hkgjpkq `q tbgiougpmlgmtjk kgjdgpx amuokugd am vokahqljcami- Tbg

    ujkwgx oe homtpokkami jmd gkalamjtami mwhkgjp ygjv,

    omx ygpg xggm jx holvjta`kg yatb komi,tgpl iojkx

    tbjt+ am tbg Pwxxajm hjxg+ amhkwdgd pjdahjkkq tpjmxeopl,

    ami atx dgegmxg voxtwpg jmd amtgpmjtaomjk davkoljhq-

    Tbgpg ygpg xaimaeahjmt amugxtlgmtx oe talg jmd lomgq

    to hbjmig vpgegpgmhgx eop jm amxtatwtaomjk jvvpojhb to

    jktgpami pgkjtaomx q lgjmx oe j pgialg hbjmig am jplx

    homtpok jmd am tbg ewmdjlgmtjk pokgx oe mwhkgjp ygjv,

    omx am j mgy+ voxtHokd Yjp opdgp- Tbg pgljamami

    xwvgpvoygp+ op am amxtatwtaomjk tgplx tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx

    jx bgiglom+ jxxwpgd atx xwvvopt eop tbax mgy opdgp-Jddataomjk pgxowphgx ygpg hollattgd to pgameophg tbg

    gxxgmtajk vpamhavkgx oe tbg mgy opdgp to gkalamjtg

    mwhkgjp ygjvomx epol mom,Pwxxajm eoplgp Xouagt

    pgvw`kahx- Alvoptjmtkq+ tbg eoplgp pgvw`kahx ygpg

    gmijigd am tbg vpohgxx oe xbjpami tbg `wpdgmx oe ho,

    opdamjtami tbg vokahq jmd atx alvkglgmtjtaom-

    Tbg kjpigkq `akjtgpjk pgkjtaomxbav `gtyggm tbg Wmatgd

    Xtjtgx jmd tbg mgykq glgpiami Pwxxaj xokadaeagd tbg

    moplx+ adgmtatq+ jmd cmoykgdig eop amxtatwtaomjka~ami

    tbg Mwmm,Kwijp howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom vokahagx- Apoma,

    hjkkq+ tbg komi Hokd Yjp baxtopq oe mwhkgjp lappop,aljiami jmd jplx homtpok homtpa`wtgd to hollom

    epjlgx oe pgegpgmhg pgijpdami tbg vpohgxx jmd xw`,

    xtjmhg eop homdwhtami amtgpxtjtg mgiotajtaomx om

    mwhkgjp ygjvomx axxwgx- Hollom vpgegpgmhgx ygpg

    pgugjkgd tbpowib amtgpjhtaomx tbjt amhkwdgd tbg eoplgp

    Xouagt pgvw`kahx- Guokuami moplx pgijpdami tbg

    gkalamjtaom oe mwhkgjp ygjvomx jmd xolg eaxxakg lj,

    tgpajkx glvoygpgd davkoljtx jmd dgegmxg oeeahajkx to

    holvkgtg howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom vokahqljcami am jhhop,

    djmhg yatb xbjpgd jmd kgiataljtg hkjalx oe vokahq pgk,

    gujmhg- Am tbg Mwmm,Kwijp hjxg+ tbg glgpigmhg oe

    xbjpgd moplx+ adgmtatq+ jmd cmoykgdig am tbg yam,doy oe ovvoptwmatq eokkoyami tbg gmd oe tbg Hokd Yjp

    glvoygpgd vokahqljcgpx epol tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx+

    Pwxxaj+ jmd tbg eoplgp Xouagt pgvw`kahx to homdwht

    pguokwtaomjpq howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom vokahagx-

    Tbg hoxtx jmd homxgzwgmhgx oe jhtaom tbpowib tbg

    HTP vpoipjlx jkxo xtj`aka~gd grvghtjtaomx eop noamt

    hoopdamjtaom- Ewmdami tbpowib tbg homipgxxaomjk `wd,

    igt vpohgxx+ pgameophgd tbpowib DODx baibkq pgiw,

    kjtgd vkjmmami+ vpoipjllami+ jmd `wdigtami xqxtgl+

    vpouadgd j dgipgg oe xtj`akatq jmd tpjmxvjpgmhq eop

    alvkglgmtami vpoipjlx jx ygkk jx gxtj`kaxbgd lghbj,

    maxlx eop gmijigd homipgxxaomjk ougpxaibt- Am gx,

    xgmhg+ tbg vpoipjlljtah vpohgxxgx oe tbg W-X- Hom,ipgxx jmd `wpgjwhpjhq eop alvkglgmtami Mwmm,Kwijp

    vpoipjlx xgpugd tbg jipggd jdlamaxtpjtaom vwpvoxgx

    am uaxa`kg yjqx-

    Tbg Mwmm,Kwijp hjxg jkxo vpouadgx guadgmhg oe tbg

    xaimaeahjmhg oe tbg mgtyopc jxvghtx oe tbg

    howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom vokahqljcami hollwmatq- Tbg

    ewmhtaomjk pokg oe j yadg ujpagtq oe xvghajka~gd jigm,

    hagx am tbg gjpkq Mwmm,Kwijp vgpaod+ jkk eohwxgd am j

    hollom dapghtaom om hkgjp iojkx+ xgpugd jx j eophami

    ewmhtaom eop tbg vokahqljcami hollwmatq- Tbg

    ougpjphbami jmd hkgjp vpoipjl iojkx pgijpdami gkala,mjtami mwhkgjp ygjvomx am eoplgp Xouagt pgvw`kahx jt

    j wmazwg talg am baxtopq xgpugd jx j xtpomi eowmdjtaom

    eop howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom vokahq geeoptx-

    Omg jpgj ybgpg Mwmm,Kwijp pgugjkx j xboptholami

    am amxtatwtaom `wakdami ax jx jm gjpkq xwhhgxxewk ammo,

    ujtaom+ op vakot tgxt+ om ybahb to `wakd jmd grvjmd

    igoipjvbahjkkq `gqomd Pwxxaj jmd tbg eoplgp Xouagt

    pgvw`kahx to otbgp jpgjx oe vpokaegpjtaom homhgpm+ xwhb

    jx Xowtb Jxaj "Amdaj jmd Vjcaxtjm!+ Moptbgjxt Jxaj

    "Moptb Copgj!+ jmd tbg Laddkg Gjxt "Apjz jmd Apjm!-

    Am otbgp yopdx+ tbg gjpkq Mwmm,Kwijp xwhhgxxgx ygpgmot pgvkahjtgd am otbgp jpgjx oe vpokaegpjtaom homhgpm-

    Jddataomjk amxaibtx amto tbg daeeahwktagx oe amxtatwtaom

    wakdami jpg pgugjkgd am grjlamami tbg mjtwpg jmd xhovg

    oe ybjt tbgopaxtx hjkk tbg amxtpwlgmtjk pgkgujmhg oe

    amxtatwtaomx- Tbg baib hoxtx oe dgugkovami geeghtaug

    jmd geeahagmt amxtatwtaomx to xgpug jx jm amxtpwlgmt oe

    xtjtg vokahq hjm `g xggm am tbg holvkgratagx am tbg

    eowp dalgmxaomx eop jxxgxxami amxtpwlgmtjk pgkgujmhg>

    amhgmtaug xtpwhtwpgx+ lomatopami jmd gmeophglgmt vpo,

    hgxxgx+ hjkhwkjtaomx oe ewtwpg `gmgeatx+ jmd ejhakatjt,

    ami `jpijamami-

    Amhgmtaug Xtpwhtwpgx

    W-X- amhgmtaugx eop HTP vpoipjlx ygpg ejapkq o`ua,

    owx- Tbg talami oe tbg Mwmm,Kwijp amatajtaugx yjx

    pgkjtgd dapghtkq to j wmazwg ovvoptwmatq jt tbg gmd oe

    tbg Hokd Yjp to gkalamjtg djmigpowx vpokaegpjtaom

    tbpgjtx- Tbg ygjcmgxxgx oe Xouagt xjegiwjpdx jmd

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    17/22 TBG MOPTB COPGJM MWHKGJP AXXWG 98

    xtohcvakg xghwpatq ygpg jkpgjdq cmoym am tbg dgegmxg

    grvgpt hollwmatq jx j pgxwkt oe tbg :126x Bjpujpd

    @gkegp Hgmtgp xtwdagx- Jktbowib j mwl`gp oe amtgpmj,

    taomjk pgkjtaomx xhbokjpx dg`jtgd tbg amhpgjxgd xtj`ak,

    atq oe lwktavkg mwhkgjp voygpx+ amhkwdami Wcpjamg jmd

    otbgpx+ jx j bgdig jijamxt ewtwpg Pwxxajm jiipgxxaom+57

    homugmtaomjk yaxdol am tbg vokahq hollwmatq hoj,kgxhgd jpowmd tbg adgj oe vpouadami amhgmtaugx to gkala,

    mjtg mwhkgjp ygjvomx tbpgjtx am jm wmhgptjam voxt

    Hokd Yjp gmuapomlgmt- Tbg W-X- jmd Pwxxajm dg`jtgx

    ougp Mwmm,Kwijp amhkwdgd hjkhwkjtaomx oe tbg `gm,

    geatx jmd hoxtx oe j mgy+ ammoujtaug jvvpojhb-

    Hjptgp jmd Vgppq ypatg oe tbg baib tpjmxjhtaom hoxtx

    oe gjpkq Mwmm,Kwijp mgiotajtaomx-55 Tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx

    yjx ljamkq amtgpgxtgd am daxljmtkami Xouagt laxxakgx

    jx j yjq oe xgpuami W-X- mjtaomjk xghwpatq amtgpgxtx-

    Pwxxaj jmd tbg eoplgp Xouagt pgvw`kahx ygpg amtgp,

    gxtgd am xohajk jxxaxtjmhg to homugpt lakatjpq eophgx+xhagmtaxtx+ jmd tbgap ujxt lakatjpq,amdwxtpajk holvkgr

    to hauakajm+ hollgphajk wxgx- Amhgmtaugx ygpg jkxo

    alvoptjmt eop hbjptami j ewtwpg dapghtaom eop Mwmm,

    Kwijp to amhkwdg eaxxakg ljtgpajkx jx ygkk jx graxtami

    laxxakgx jmd `ol`x- Am tbax xgmxg+ amxtatwtaom `wakdami

    amhkwdgx alvpouami tbg amhgmtaugx eop kacgkq hoovgpj,

    taom jx ygkk jx eop vpgugmtami kjtgp dgeghtopx ybo

    yowkd xtakk voxxgxx ljtgpajkx wxgewk eop xo,hjkkgd daptq

    `ol`x jx ygkk jx mwhkgjp lgphbjmdaxg eop tbg tgppop,

    axt `kjhc ljpcgt- Tbwx+ amxtatwtaom `wakdami amatajtgd

    tbpowib Mwmm,Kwijp vpouadgx amhgmtaugx eop homtamw,

    ami to gmijig Pwxxaj jmd tbg eoplgp Xouagt pgvw`kahxam jm omioami vpohgxx eop adgjx xwhb jx eoplami am,

    tgpmjtaomjk eaxxakg ljtgpajk pgvoxatopagx yatb tbg wxg oe

    ewmdx epol jm amtgpmjtaomjk homxoptawl to ljmjig tbg

    iko`jk xtohcvakg eop vgjhgewk vwpvoxgx jmd vpodwhami

    mom,ygjvomx,ipjdg mwhkgjp pgjhtop ewgk-59

    Amhgmtaug xtpwhtwpgx am tbg Mwmm,Kwijp hjxg jhtwjkkq

    amuokugd j yadgp pjmig oe ovtaomx tbjm yjx uaxa`kg

    tbpowib tbg kgmx oe tpjdataomjk jplx homtpok mgiotaj,

    taomx- Am tbg hjxg oe Wcpjamg+ j yadg,jmikg vgpxvgh,taug pgugjkx tbpgg xgvjpjtg xgtx oe amhgmtaugx-52 Tbg

    eapxt kgugk amhkwdgd tpakjtgpjk davkoljhq homdwhtgd `q

    tbg Wmatgd Xtjtgx+ Pwxxaj+ jmd Wcpjamg- Tbgxg mgio,

    tajtaomx eohwxgd om ghomolah amhgmtaugx eop dgegmxg

    homugpxaomx+ ljpcgt pgeoplx+ jmd ghomolah dgugk,

    ovlgmt- Jt j xghomd kgugk+ amhgmtaugx ygpg mghgxxjpq

    to lggt Wcpjamgx xghwpatq homhgpmx- W-X-+ Gwpovgjm+

    jmd Pwxxajm pgkjtaomx ygpg jkk amuokugd am tbg pgxwkt,

    ami dgegmxg vpoipjlx eop lakatjpq,to,lakatjpq tpjamami

    eop Wcpjamajm jmd otbgp Gjxtgpm Gwpovgjm eophgx+

    MJTO Vjptmgpxbav eop Vgjhg vpoipjlx+ jmd gmxwami

    vpoipjlx eop MJTO grvjmxaom-51

    Tbg tbapd vaghg am,hkwdgd tbg Mwmm,Kwijp dgmwhkgjpa~jtaom vpoipjl-

    Lomatopami jmd Gmeophglgmt Vpohgxxgx

    Lomatopami jmd gmeophglgmt lghbjmaxlx eop amxtatw,

    taom `wakdami amhkwdg jxvghtx oe amtpjxtjtg jmd amtgp,

    xtjtg pgkjtaomx jx ygkk jx amtgpmjtaomjk pgkjtaomx- Eop

    amxtjmhg+ am tbg Mwmm,Kwijp hjxg+ gjpkq xwvvopt yjx

    kjhcami epol Pwxxajx Lamjtol-96 Om tbg W-X- xadg+

    graxtami Hokd Yjp jigmhagx ygpg pgopijma~ami jx ygkk

    jx eoplami mgy opijma~jtaomxeop grjlvkg+ tbg pg,

    opijma~jtaom jmd mgy laxxaomx jxxaimgd am tbg tpjmxa,taom epol tbg W-X- Dgegmxg Mwhkgjp Jigmhq to tbg

    Dgegmxg Tbpgjt Pgdwhtaom Jigmhq "DTPJ!- Opijma,

    ~jtaomjk pgeoplx amhkwdgd tbg mgykq hbjptgpgd Om,

    57- Xgg Nobm N- Lgjpxbgalgp+ Tbg Hjxg eop j Wcpjamajm Mwhkgjp Dgtgppgmt+ jmd Xjijm jmd Yjkt~+ Tbg Xvpgjd oe Mwhkgjp Ygjvomx+

    eop amxtjmhg-

    55- Hjptgp jmd Vgppq+Vpgugmtaug Dgegmxg+ 98-

    59- A`ad-+ 26-

    52- A`ad-+ 28-

    51- Ljpq`gtb Vgtgpxom Wkpahb+ Dglohpjta~ami Hollwmaxt Lakatjpagx> Tbg Hjxgx oe tbg H~ghb jmd Pwxxajm Jplgd Eophgx "Jmm

    Jp`op> Wmaugpxatq oe Lahbaijm Vpgxx+ :111!-

    96- Hjptgp jmd Vgppq+Vpgugmtaug Dgegmxg+ 26-

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    18/2294 TBG COPGJ GHOMOLAH AMXTATWTG

    Xatg Amxvghtaom Jigmhq+ ybahb yjx eowmdgd to xwv,

    vopt gjpkq voxtHokd Yjp howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom amataj,

    taugx-9:

    Am holvjpaxom+ tbg kjtgp+ ejakgd Moptb Copgjm Jipggd

    Epjlgyopc pgkagd om tbg AJGJ eop lomatopami jmd

    gmeophglgmt- Kjtgp+ am 0666+ tbg kjxt jmmwjk pgvoptaxxwgd `q Xghpgtjpq oe Dgegmxg Hobgm voamtgd owt

    tbg xaimaeahjmhg oe tbg Jipggd Epjlgyopc epgg~ami

    Moptb Copgjm mwhkgjp ejhakatagx jt Qomi`qom jmd

    Tjghbom wmdgp AJGJ amxvghtaomx-90 Tbg pgxwktami hok,

    kjvxg oe tbg Moptb Copgjm amtgpmjtaomjk lomatopami jmd

    gmeophglgmt jijam vpouadgx j homtpjxt yatb tbg ge,

    eghtaug lomatopami jmd gmeophglgmt lghbjmaxlx oe

    tbg Mwmm,Kwijp vpoipjlx yatb amhkwdgd boxt jigm,

    hagx xwhb jx Lamjtol jmd tbg DTPJ gmijigd dapghtkq-

    Am holvjpami tbgxg tyo hjxgx+ tbg guadgmhg to djtg

    xwiigxtx tbg hpatahjk alvoptjmhg oe boxt howmtpq am,

    uokuglgmt am jhtaugkq xwvvoptami lomatopami jmd gm,eophglgmt jppjmiglgmtx-98

    Hjkhwkjtaom oe Ewtwpg @gmgeatx

    Tbg vbpjxg kgmitbgmami tbg xbjdoy oe tbg ewtwpg

    voptpjqx tbg alvoptjmt vgphgvtaom oe amxtatwtaomjk jp,

    pjmiglgmtx jx gmbjmhami tbg vpoxvghtx oe ewtwpg `gm,

    geatx jmd hoxtx-94 Am otbgp yopdx+ tbg votgmtajk eop

    ewtwpg vjqoeex kgmdx xwvvopt eop amxtatwtaom `wakdami-

    Ypatami am :111+ Hjptgp jmd Vgppq glvbjxa~g tbg xwh,

    hgxxgx oe Mwmm,Kwijp am tbg gjpkq voxtHokd Yjp

    vgpaod-97

    Am jddataom+ tbgq vponght eopyjpd to baib,

    kaibt homtamwami howmtgpvpokaegpjtaom yopc- Am vjptahw,

    kjp+ tbgq motg tbjt Pwxxaj xtakk voxxgxxgx gmowib vkw,

    tomawl jmd baibkq gmpahbgd wpjmawl to vpodwhg `g,

    tyggm 07+666 jmd 26+666 mwhkgjp ygjvomx- Tbgpg,

    eopg+ tbgq vpovoxg pgamugmtami Mwmm,Kwijp yatb gr,

    vjmdami vpoipjl `wdigtx yatb ipgjtgp kjtatwdg eop

    mwhkgjp jwdatx jmd amxvghtaomx jmd j mgy jplx hom,tpok pgialg- Tbg hjkk ax eop jm grvjmxaom oe Mwmm,

    Kwijp eop xjegiwjpdami eaxxakg ljtgpajkx- Tbg amatajtaug

    am grvjmdami HTP vpoipjl vpokaegpjtaom pgialgx ax

    ghbogd am pghgmt yopc `q tbg Hjpmgiag Eowmdjtaom

    jmd jijam `q Jkkaxom oe Bjpujpdx @gkegp Hgmtgp-95

    Ejhakatjtami @jpijamami

    Tbg eamjk dalgmxaom eop jxxgxxami tbg amxtpwlgmtjk

    pgkgujmhg oe amtgpmjtaomjk amxtatwtaomx homhgpmx ejhaka,

    tjtami `jpijamami- Ejhakatjtaom amhkwdgx gxtj`kaxbami

    pwkgx+ vpohgdwpgx+ vpamhavkgx+ jmd vpghgdgmtx jx ygkkjx hpgjtami baib hoxtx eop mo jipgglgmt- Tbg grtgm,

    xaug mjtwpg oe tbg gaibt holvomgmtx hatgd eop xwh,

    hgxxewk mgiotajtaomx pgugjkx tbg alvoptjmhg oe amxtatw,

    taomx jmd pgialgx+ jkomi yatb xwvvoptami opijma~j,

    taomx+ eop geeghtaug vokahqljcami jmd alvkglgmtjtaom-

    Tbg gaibt holvomgmtx dpjym epol tbg katgpjtwpg om

    `jpijamami jmd mgiotajtaomx holvpaxg ":! pwkgx+ "0!

    ameopljtaom+ "8! xtjmdjpdx+ "4! ameopljtaom j`owt hol,

    vkajmhg+ "7! hpgda`kg vgmjktagx+ "5! gmeophgj`kg pwkgx+

    "9! hoovgpjtaom tbpowib ameopljtaom xbjpami+ jmd "2!

    kalatami tbg mwl`gp oe vjptahavjmtx-

    9:- Hbpaxtajm @pjblxtgdt+Dgegmxgx Mwhkgjp Jigmhq+ :149:119"Yjxbamitom+ D-H-> W-X- Dgvjptlgmt oe Dgegmxg+ Dgegmxg Tbpgjt

    Pgdwhtaom Jigmhq+ 0660!-

    90- Hobgm+Jmmwjk Pgvopt to tbg Vpgxadgmt jmd tbg Homipgxx+ ::-

    98- Eop j holvjpaxom oe daeeahwktagx am jplx homtpok amxvghtaom+ lomatopami+ jmd ugpaeahjtaom ybgm tbg boxt howmtpq pgewxgx to

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    @wtkgp+ Tbg Ipgjtgxt Tbpgjt> Apjz+ Ygjvomx oe Ljxx Dgxtpwhtaom+ jmd tbg Ipoyami Hpaxax oe Iko`jk Xghwpatq "Mgy Qopc> Vw`kah

    Jeejapx+ 0666!3 jmd `q tbg grghwtaug hbjapljm oe tbg WM Lomatopami+ Ugpaeahjtaom+ jmd Amxvghtaom Hollaxxaom "WMLOUAH!+ Bjmx

    @kar+Daxjplami Apjz "Mgy Qopc> Vjmtbgom @oocx+ 0664!-

    94- J daxhwxxaom oe tbg homhgvt xbjdoy oe tbg ewtwpg ax eowmd am Njlgx D- Egjpom+ @jpijamami+ Gmeophglgmt jmd Amtgpmjtaomjk

    Hoovgpjtaom+Amtgpmjtaomjk Opijma~jtaom 70+ mo- 0 ":112!> 051867-

    97- Hjptgp jmd Vgppq+Vpgugmtaug Dgegmxg+ 9991-

    95- Igopig Vgpcouahb+ Noxgvb Hapamhaomg+ Poxg Iottglogkkgp+ Nom @- Yokextbjk+ jmd Ngxxahj T- Ljtbgyx+ Wmaugpxjk Holvkajmhg> J

    Xtpjtgiq eop Mwhkgjp Xghwpatq "Yjxbamitom+ D-H-> Hjpmgiag Gmdoylgmt eop Amtgpmjtaomjk Vgjhg+ 0664!3 Jkkaxom+Mwhkgjp Tgppopaxl-

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    19/22 TBG MOPTB COPGJM MWHKGJP AXXWG 97

    Am tbg Mwmm,Kwijp hjxg+ ljcami tbg HTP geeghtaug

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    owt tbjt ljmjiami grvghtjtaomx amhkwdgd lopg vkjq,

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    Tbg Mwhkgjp Voxtwpg Pguagy yjx lgjmt jx j hkgjp

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    tbg Hokd Yjp yjx ougp jmd tbjt mwhkgjp ygjvomx

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    tbg totjk mwl`gp oe xtpjtgiah ygjvomx eop homxadgpjtaom

    am omioami atgpjtaomx oe xtpjtgiah jplx pgdwhtaom tjkcx-

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    jmd homeadgmhg eop homtamwami tbg vpoipjl- Am tbax

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    jdjvtami tbg Mwmm,Kwijp jvvpojhb eop Moptbgjxt Jxajpgzwapgx jddataomjk xtwdq jmd jmjkqxax- Hgptjamkq+ dg,

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    hoovgpjtaug xtpjtgiagx eop vpolotami j hollom

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    92- Hjptgp jmd Vgppq+Vpgugmtaug Dgegmxg+ 27-

    91- A`ad-+ 22-

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    20/2295 TBG COPGJ GHOMOLAH AMXTATWTG

    Voxtxhpavt

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    tbg egdgpjk+ xtjtg+ jmd kohjk kgugkx3 jmd tbg `oocx am,

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    kaibt om tbg jkaimlgmt op laxjkaimlgmt oe W-X- jmd

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    2:- A`ad-+ :70-

    20- A`ad-+ 060:-

  • 8/3/2019 From the Six-Party Talks to a Northeast Asian Security Regime? by Joseph R. Cerami

    21/22 TBG MOPTB COPGJM MWHKGJP AXXWG 99

    xaibt oe YLD vokahq axxwgx- Am jddataom to amtgpmjk

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