profit 31st january, 2012

3
Pages: 3 proft.com.pk Tuesday, 31 January, 2012 Bears prevail as index plunges by 77 points Page 03 KARACHI JAVED MEHMOOD/ISMAIL DILAWAR S TaTE bank of Pakistan (SbP) and Securi- ties and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) are finalising modalities to launch the long-awaited corporate debt market in the country. “I have started with the chairman SECP in a weekly meeting of Coordination Commit- tee where we have been able to work on the launch- ing of the corporate debt market so to develop corporate debt market,” said Governor SbP Yasin anwar in an exclusive interview with Profit. The complete interview will be published in Monday’s issue of Pakistan Today. “You have the ICI, Glaxo and others to tap the market themselves as opposed to going to the banks, which have captive audience. They can charge this KIbOR plus or whatever it is,” SbP Gov- ernor further explained the corporate debt plan. The investor from corporate sector would be able to go to the market themselves and fund their own portfolios. They don’t need to depend on banks anymore,” SbP Governor added. Once it happens, these banks would have to find new products and would go to SMEs that would auto- matically generate and increase economic activity thus growth in the country, he said. The banks’ extra liquid- ity would then be directed to the agriculture and house financing sectors, he said, adding the country’s legal system and the laws pertaining to financing sector had also got problems. and within next one or two years the corporate debt market and legal process were going to get into conversion of this areas into more robust lending ensuring the realisation of the engine of growth for this country. anwar, an optimist who sees the glass half full, views housing finance, Small and Medium Enterprises and agriculture as the three pil- lars of engine of growth in Pakistan. Terming the “doc- umentation and technology” as two prerequisites for the SME lending, the governor said agriculture in Pak- istan, representing 45 per cent of the work force and 21 per cent of GDP, has a huge untapped potential. about house finance, he illustrated that the outstand- ing loans to housing finance in Pakistan stood at only one per cent of the GDP compared to 65-70 per cent and 110 per cent, respectively, in the uS and the uK. Reasons being the fixed income market does not exist in Pakistan to provide that 25 to 30-year money. EXAGGERATING LAW AND ORDER IN PAKISTAN “We have a difficult environment as it is in the world media where the media projects us as a na- tion that is fraught with a terror and law and order crisis, but that’s an exaggeration. We know that the foreign media is elevating this to a level which is un- justifiable,” he said. SbP Governor said life was very normal in Pakistan except some urban centers or the north-western parts of the country that were plagued and pockets of disturbances were there, which was a common phenomenon in many urban cities around the world. So it’s not alien and the business environment has huge potential, the bank- ing sector is very resilient we are not faced with the crisis that is being faced by many other countries around the world and that is because of a sound banking supervision, he said. PRESENT STATE OF ECONOMY “I see going forward in terms of the dark clouds and the silver linings that we have in these dark clouds also. I am an optimist and see the glass half full, and that’s the only way I feel we should go forward to build bridges and cover up those potholes or those bumps that we see on the road ahead,” he further explained. now currently we have GDP at 3.8 per cent which is considerably better than what it was 2.4 per cent last year and naturally it is not as high as we would like to see, but we headed in the right direction, Yaseen anwar said. He said: “as far as our concerns or the challenges we have, is that we have a current account deficit that is a concern and I am not comfortable with it. We had a surprisingly small current account surplus last year that was because of fortunately very good prices of cotton which have picked up our exports but what it has dropped very quickly because the prices of cot- ton declined much faster than anybody had ex- pected. We were not expecting it to get to this level so quickly, naturally, what does that do is to create an impact on our balance of payments, our reserves because that shortfall has to be met somewhere.” If you don’t get the inflows in, so that is where my sec- ond concern is. The inflows that we expect must be realized in order to reach our targets by the end of the year. We still have five-six months left so and I don’t want to predict that we will or will not reach it, that is challenging and the targets and those in- flows are relating to Coalition Support Fund (CSF), 3G license to PTCL and of course the remit- tances and the latter one has been very steady as you know we have averaged to get about a billion dollars a month. During first half it’s little over $6 billion marking an 18 per cent increase during six months, july-December FY2012. That has been very healthy. MYSTERY OF THE INCREAS- ING REMITTANCES and some people talk about a mystery. They wonder why the remittances have been going up over last three years. So I said this before and I said this in front of Finance Committee when I was asked. If anybody was in international banking and know international money transfer business then this word mystery would never be used as that means it’s not under- stood. Very simple, in january 2008 there were two exchange companies that were shut down [Zarco and K&K (Khanani and Kalia)] if we assume that the pool of both formal and informal flows of remit- tances amount to, let’s say hypothetically I am just choosing the number, $20 to $25 billion. at that time we had inflows of $67 billion so by logic the rest of it would be informal sector right. On january 1, I issued a circular to all the exchange companies and banks that any exchange company that is oper- ating with its counter party in overseas that counter party must be regulated by the local regulatory body or agency like State bank or its counterpart over there in England, uaE etc. That was a major restriction or condition that we put on. Thirdly, we launched what called the Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS); a software program that in fact I was asked to set it up as I had an experience of the uS payment systems so it is something that I had to get an approval from Islamabad. Deeming the payment business a very important segment of an economy, we launched RTGS that allows us to transfer a $100 from new York to Muzaffarabad in a matter of few minutes to the beneficiary’s account. So the launch if this allowed the smooth flow and efficient transfer which could compete effectively the quick trans- fer of hawala or the informal trade business. So now the beneficiary’s account gets the money quickly. Fourthly, I instructed my inspectors to elevate their inspec- tion of the exchange companies to make sure that the compliances are being followed. The combina- tion of these steps what it did is very simple forced an undisciplined environment into a more disci- plined flow of the moneys coming from both the in- formal and formal channels. That’s why it’s now $12 billion target and we would meet it I think. Plus we also have created incentive mechanism that encour- ages those money changers abroad to send it through formal channels, so we give rebate under the incentive formula. So that is where we get $12 billion out of that 20 billion it means the pool may be the same for argument’s sake. UNCERTAIN FLOW OF FOREIGN FINANCING On uncertainties on CSF and 3G license, I don’t want to say for sure that these will or will not come in on the CSF and others the federal government is optimistic and I have to support that optimism but at the same time one has to be realistic as well. Given the current environment I am a conservative banker so you have to hedge and supposing you do a sensitively analysis you go through the worst case scenario to be prepared so you have to ratchet up another side of the equation to make sure you try and balance that fiscal deficit. THREE MAJOR ECONOMIC CHALLENGES Three major challenges we have, one, is the revenue side that is a key, secondly it’s the balance of pay- ments, and third private sector credit. The fiscal revenue target is Rs1952 billion, attached to GDP ratio of nine per cent we need to be somewhere up north of that. Our expenditures are still naturally going up with the revenue side needs to go up ex- pediential higher than what it has been. now if the inflows don’t come in, let’s say hypothetically, by 50 per cent say only $400 million come of the $800 million from the Coalition Support, we have got payments of the IMF $1.2 or $ 1.3 billion has to go out during this second half keep in mind it is not next month, people keep saying its next month it is in second sometime, I believe, in april or May. “but we have already budgeted that in our cal- culations, so we don’t see an impact of that as far as our forecast is concerned for fiscal deficit and the current account position,” as far as other inflows are concerned, if they don’t come in at the lev- els that were talking about the yes we will be hit on our reserves posi- tion,” The governor, however, refrained from giving a number indicating towards the level of fiscal im- balances. LAHORE IMRAN ADNAN P unjab agriculture Department has estimated historic cotton production in the province due to favourable weather conditions, less pest attack and comprehensive extension services. Provincial agriculture Department has started preparation for the next season by initiating cotton training programme, which would be completed by February 15, 2012. The training programme would focus on good farming practices and trained extension workers would assist farmers in preparing their fields for the next crop. agriculture Department’s field force would ensure proper uprooting of cotton sticks from fields, their disposal and grazing by sheep and goats as per provisions of the Pest Ordinance, 1959. Ploughing up of un-ploughed cotton fields and turn all cotton fields exposed to sunlight. Punjab agriculture Department has advised extension workers to ensure complete eradication of weeds through cultural, mechanical and chemical means. Pest scouting of all spring crops, especially sunflower, shall be conducted with use of chemical sprays through insect growth regulators. White-flies will be targeted on alternative spring crops and weeds to avoid their further spread to upcoming cotton crop. Field workers will ensure proper adoption of sanitary measures in trees and shrubs around cotton fields and ornamental plant nurseries against whitefly and mealy bug. Remove or manage alternative host plants for CLCV, white-fly and mealy bug around prospective cotton fields. They will ask farmers to start planning about the upcoming crop by earmarking the land for cotton, soil analysis, arrangement of good quality labelled seed through a reliable source, arrangement of machinery and credit. avoid water stress and excessive nitrogen to the plants to spring crop and in case of severe attack of white-fly and mealy bug treat the plants with one of the recommended pesticides. use of Chrysoperla cards as biological control agents at the rate of 80-90 cards per acre with 20-25 eggs in each card may be advocated. These cards are available at biological Control Laboratories at Vehari, Sahiwal, Pakpattan, Okara, Faisalabad and Toba Tek Singh. Speaking to Profit, agriculture Department Director General (Extension) Dr anjum ali said that the unprecedented increase in cotton production had also raised the bar to challenge field functionaries to deliver to their best for the success of upcoming crop. He appreciated the untiring efforts of the field staff for the success of current cotton crop and asked them to deliver their best in the forthcoming season. Punjab Agri Dept forecasts ‘historic cotton production’ ‘Corporate debt market in the offing’ PRO 31-01-2012_Layout 1 1/31/2012 12:38 AM Page 1

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Page 1: Profit 31st January, 2012

Pages: 3 profit.com.pk Tuesday, 31 January, 2012

Bears prevail as index plungesby 77 points Page 03

KARACHI

JAVED MEHMOOD/ISMAIL DILAWAR

STaTE bank of Pakistan (SbP) and Securi-ties and Exchange Commission of Pakistan(SECP) are finalising modalities to launchthe long-awaited corporate debt market in

the country. “I have started with the chairmanSECP in a weekly meeting of Coordination Commit-tee where we have been able to work on the launch-ing of the corporate debt market so to developcorporate debt market,” said Governor SbP Yasinanwar in an exclusive interview with Profit. Thecomplete interview will be published in Monday’sissue of Pakistan Today.

“You have the ICI, Glaxo and others to tap themarket themselves as opposed to going to thebanks, which have captive audience. They cancharge this KIbOR plus or whatever it is,” SbP Gov-ernor further explained the corporate debt plan.

The investor from corporate sector would beable to go to the market themselves and fund theirown portfolios. They don’t need to depend on banksanymore,” SbP Governor added.

Once it happens, these banks would have to findnew products and would go to SMEs that would auto-matically generate and increase economic activity thusgrowth in the country, he said. The banks’ extra liquid-ity would then be directed to the agriculture and housefinancing sectors, he said, adding the country’s legalsystem and the laws pertaining to financing sector hadalso got problems. and within next one or two yearsthe corporate debt market and legal process were goingto get into conversion of this areas into more robustlending ensuring the realisation of the engine ofgrowth for this country. anwar, an optimist who seesthe glass half full, views housing finance, Small andMedium Enterprises and agriculture as the three pil-lars of engine of growth in Pakistan. Terming the “doc-umentation and technology” as two prerequisites forthe SME lending, the governor said agriculture in Pak-istan, representing 45 per cent of the work force and21 per cent of GDP, has a huge untapped potential.about house finance, he illustrated that the outstand-ing loans to housing finance in Pakistan stood at onlyone per cent of the GDP compared to 65-70 per centand 110 per cent, respectively, in the uS and the uK.Reasons being the fixed income market does not existin Pakistan to provide that 25 to 30-year money.

EXAGGERATING LAW AND ORDER IN PAKISTAN“We have a difficult environment as it is in theworld media where the media projects us as a na-tion that is fraught with a terror and law and ordercrisis, but that’s an exaggeration. We know that theforeign media is elevating this to a level which is un-justifiable,” he said. SbP Governor said life was verynormal in Pakistan except some urban centers orthe north-western parts of the country that wereplagued and pockets of disturbances were there,which was a common phenomenon in many urbancities around the world. So it’s not alien and thebusiness environment has huge potential, the bank-ing sector is very resilient we are not faced with thecrisis that is being faced by many other countriesaround the world and that is because of a sound

banking supervision, he said.

PRESENT STATE OF ECONOMY “I see going forward in terms of the dark clouds andthe silver linings that we have in these dark cloudsalso. I am an optimist and see the glass half full, andthat’s the only way I feel we should go forward tobuild bridges and cover up those potholes or thosebumps that we see on the road ahead,” he furtherexplained. now currently we have GDP at 3.8 percent which is considerably better than what it was2.4 per cent last year and naturally it is not as highas we would like to see, but we headed in the rightdirection, Yaseen anwar said.

He said: “as far as our concerns or the challengeswe have, is that we have a current account deficit thatis a concern and I am not comfortable with it. Wehad a surprisingly small current account surplus lastyear that was because of fortunately very good pricesof cotton which have picked up our exports but whatit has dropped very quickly because the prices of cot-ton declined much faster than anybody had ex-pected. We were not expecting it to get to this levelso quickly, naturally, what does that do is to createan impact on our balance of payments, our reservesbecause that shortfall has to be met somewhere.” Ifyou don’t get the inflows in, so that is where my sec-ond concern is. The inflows that we expect must berealized in order to reach our targets by the end ofthe year. We still have five-six months left so and Idon’t want to predict that we will or willnot reach it, that is challengingand the targets and those in-flows are relating to CoalitionSupport Fund (CSF), 3G licenseto PTCL and of course the remit-tances and the latter one has beenvery steady as you know we haveaveraged to get about a billiondollars a month. During first halfit’s little over $6 billion markingan 18 per cent increase during sixmonths, july-December FY2012.That has been very healthy.

MYSTERY OF THE INCREAS-ING REMITTANCESand some people talk about amystery. They wonder why theremittances have been going upover last three years. So I saidthis before and I said this infront of Finance Committeewhen I was asked. If anybodywas in international bankingand know internationalmoney transfer businessthen this word mysterywould never be used as thatmeans it’s not under-stood. Very simple, injanuary 2008 therewere two

exchange companies that were shut down [Zarcoand K&K (Khanani and Kalia)] if we assume thatthe pool of both formal and informal flows of remit-tances amount to, let’s say hypothetically I am justchoosing the number, $20 to $25 billion. at thattime we had inflows of $67 billion so by logic therest of it would be informal sector right. On january1, I issued a circular to all the exchange companiesand banks that any exchange company that is oper-ating with its counter party in overseas that counterparty must be regulated by the local regulatory bodyor agency like State bank or its counterpart overthere in England, uaE etc.

That was a major restriction or condition thatwe put on. Thirdly, we launched what called theReal Time Gross Settlement (RTGS); a softwareprogram that in fact I was asked to set it up as Ihad an experience of the uS payment systems soit is something that I had to get an approval fromIslamabad. Deeming the payment business a veryimportant segment of an economy, we launchedRTGS that allows us to transfer a $100 from newYork to Muzaffarabad in a matter of few minutesto the beneficiary’s account. So the launch if thisallowed the smooth flow and efficient transferwhich could compete effectively the quick trans-fer of hawala or the informal trade business. So

now the beneficiary’s accountgets the money quickly.

Fourthly, I instructedmy inspectors to elevatetheir inspec-

tion of the exchange companies to make sure thatthe compliances are being followed. The combina-tion of these steps what it did is very simple forcedan undisciplined environment into a more disci-plined flow of the moneys coming from both the in-formal and formal channels. That’s why it’s now $12billion target and we would meet it I think. Plus wealso have created incentive mechanism that encour-ages those money changers abroad to send itthrough formal channels, so we give rebate underthe incentive formula. So that is where we get $12billion out of that 20 billion it means the pool maybe the same for argument’s sake.

UNCERTAIN FLOW OF FOREIGN FINANCING On uncertainties on CSF and 3G license, I don’twant to say for sure that these will or will not comein on the CSF and others the federal government isoptimistic and I have to support that optimism butat the same time one has to be realistic as well.Given the current environment I am a conservativebanker so you have to hedge and supposing you doa sensitively analysis you go through the worst casescenario to be prepared so you have to ratchet upanother side of the equation to make sure you tryand balance that fiscal deficit.

THREE MAJOR ECONOMIC CHALLENGES Three major challenges we have, one, is the revenueside that is a key, secondly it’s the balance of pay-ments, and third private sector credit. The fiscalrevenue target is Rs1952 billion, attached to GDPratio of nine per cent we need to be somewhere upnorth of that. Our expenditures are still naturallygoing up with the revenue side needs to go up ex-pediential higher than what it has been. now if theinflows don’t come in, let’s say hypothetically, by 50per cent say only $400 million come of the $800million from the Coalition Support, we have gotpayments of the IMF $1.2 or $ 1.3 billion has to go

out during this second half keep in mind it is notnext month, people keep saying its next month itis in second sometime, I believe, in april or May.“but we have already budgeted that in our cal-culations, so we don’t see an impact of that asfar as our forecast is concerned for fiscal deficitand the current account position,” as far as

other inflows are concerned, ifthey don’t come in at the lev-els that were talking about the

yes we will be hit onour reserves posi-tion,” The governor,however, refrained

from giving a numberindicating towards

the level of fiscal im-balances.

LAHORE

IMRAN ADNAN

Punjab agricultureDepartment has estimatedhistoric cotton production inthe province due to

favourable weather conditions, lesspest attack and comprehensiveextension services. Provincialagriculture Department has startedpreparation for the next season byinitiating cotton training programme,which would be completed byFebruary 15, 2012. The trainingprogramme would focus on good

farming practices and trainedextension workers would assistfarmers in preparing their fields forthe next crop. agricultureDepartment’s field force would ensureproper uprooting of cotton sticks fromfields, their disposal and grazing bysheep and goats as per provisions ofthe Pest Ordinance, 1959. Ploughingup of un-ploughed cotton fields andturn all cotton fields exposed tosunlight. Punjab agricultureDepartment has advised extensionworkers to ensure completeeradication of weeds through cultural,mechanical and chemical means. Pest

scouting of all spring crops, especiallysunflower, shall be conducted withuse of chemical sprays through insectgrowth regulators.White-flies will be targeted onalternative spring crops and weeds toavoid their further spread toupcoming cotton crop. Field workerswill ensure proper adoption ofsanitary measures in trees andshrubs around cotton fields andornamental plant nurseries againstwhitefly and mealy bug. Remove ormanage alternative host plants forCLCV, white-fly and mealy bugaround prospective cotton fields.

They will ask farmers to startplanning about the upcoming crop byearmarking the land for cotton, soilanalysis, arrangement of good qualitylabelled seed through a reliablesource, arrangement of machineryand credit. avoid water stress andexcessive nitrogen to the plants tospring crop and in case of severeattack of white-fly and mealy bugtreat the plants with one of therecommended pesticides. use ofChrysoperla cards as biologicalcontrol agents at the rate of 80-90cards per acre with 20-25 eggs ineach card may be advocated. These

cards are available at biologicalControl Laboratories at Vehari,Sahiwal, Pakpattan, Okara,Faisalabad and Toba Tek Singh.Speaking to Profit, agricultureDepartment Director General(Extension) Dr anjum ali said thatthe unprecedented increase in cottonproduction had also raised the bar tochallenge field functionaries todeliver to their best for the success ofupcoming crop. He appreciated theuntiring efforts of the field staff forthe success of current cotton cropand asked them to deliver their bestin the forthcoming season.

Punjab Agri Dept forecasts ‘historic cotton production’

‘Corporate debt market in the offing’

PRO 31-01-2012_Layout 1 1/31/2012 12:38 AM Page 1

Page 2: Profit 31st January, 2012

news02Tuesday, 31 January, 2012

‘Govt policies resulting in hyper inflation’ ISLAMABAD: People are faced with hyper inflation andjoblessness due to the policies of the government assubstantiated by the recent report on the performance of thefirst quarter released by the State bank of Pakistan. astatement issued by Chairman of jeevay Pakistan jeevayMaqami-Hakoomat (jPjM) Daniyal aziz said that theuncontrolled expenditures of the government were making itdifficult to control fiscal deficit and pushing the people belowthe poverty line. He said that government was not followinga democratic approach and its dictatorial decisions werebringing the economy on the precipice and inflation wouldincrease in coming months. He said only that an honestleadership like Turkey and Malaysia could bring the countryout of the quagmire. He asked the government to curtail itsunnecessary expenditures, reducing the foreign tours andshorten the accompanying official entourage and ending thenon useful ministries. STAFF REPORT

Sudanese Ambassador invites investmentLAHORE: Sudan ambassador to Pakistan alshafie ahmadMohamed Monday invited Pakistani businessmen to makeinvestment or ink joint ventures with their Sudanesecounterparts as the country has unparalleled and hugeopportunities in rice, cement, pharmaceutical, textile made-ups, food products, poultry and steel sectors. Sudaneseambassador was speaking at Lahore Chamber of Commerceand Industry. Deputy Head of Sudanese MissionMohammed Eldei ali also spoke on the occasion. Theambassador said that this is the high time that the LahoreChamber of Commerce and Industry should arrange a sectorspecific delegation to take part in Khartoum InternationalFair as preparation for this fair are in full swing. He said thatthe LCCI should also sign an Mou with the Sudan Chamberof Commerce or with Khartoum Chamber to furtherstrengthen bilateral relations between the two sides. Theambassador informed the participants that a number ofother countries had already invested heavily in oil sector inSudan and Pakistan could also make investment for the jointbenefit of the two countries. STAFF REPORT

TDAP organises workshop on cost reductionLAHORE: Proper planning and scheduling, selection of goodservice providers, training of staff and complete documentationare the essential elements for managing cost component duringinternational trade transactions. TaQ Organisation ManagerCorporate Development Faquir ullah Sabir opined this whileaddressing the participants of a workshop on “EfficientLogistics for Reducing Cost in International Trade” held at theTrade Development authority of Pakistan (TDaP), Lahore hereon Monday. Global Research Facilitation Council VicePresident Rizwan ahmed talked about the importance oflogistics. “business community could foster fast results bymanipulating rapid and express logistics which save time andcost of the businessmen,” he added. STAFF REPORT

Sweets price soar despite sugar price slump KARACHI: Sugar prices, whereas, have contracted by 40per cent, the decrease does not reflect on the price lists ofthe retailers selling eatables like sweets, cakes, cookies, etc.Thanks to a lukewarm response on the part of government’sprice control authorities like bureau of Supply and PricesDepartment of Sindh Government. There has been a greatconfusion over the central and provincial governments’domain in terms of price control as when questioned theprovincial authorities in Sindh government refer to thefederal price control departments saying the commoditydoes not fall under its domain. no matter to what level thecommodity prices have contracted, the buyers get little or inmost cases no relief of that slump due to lack of check andbalance from the official quarters concerned. Products likesweets, cakes, cookies and other eatables made of sugarstand to be one such example. STAFF REPORT

4th Japan-Pak business dialogue in March KARACHI: Pakistan and japan will seek more ways toenhance bilateral trade through the forthcoming 4thmeeting of japan-Pak business dialogue in japan. Themeeting held is scheduled to be held on March 22, 2012 atTokyo. This was informed by Mr Hiroshi Tajima, Director(South West asia Division), Ministry of Foreign affairs,japan during a meeting with Tariq Iqbal Puri, ChiefExecutive, TDaP here on Monday. Mr Shahid Latif Khan,Director General, TDaP and Mr atif aziz, Director (CE),TDaP, Karachi was also present on this occasion. Hiroshisaid the scheduled meeting will go a long way in enhancingbilateral trade between the two countries. STAFF REPORT

NTDCL starts power system analysis courseLAHORE: an advanced level course on Power Systemanalysis (PSa) for the engineers of power transmissioncompanies started here today at the Power PlanningDepartment of national Transmission and DespatchCompany Limited (nTDCL). 17 engineers are beingprovided hands-on expertise on the PSS/E (Power SystemSimulation for Engineers) under the 3-week trainingprogramme. The scope of the training extends to developthe capacity of the trainees to analyse and propose solutionsto remove the bottlenecks in the system – such asoverloading of transmission lines and transformers, lowvoltage profile, as well as reduction in system losses byutilising state of the art PSa, (PSS/E) software. STAFF REPORT

KARACHI

JAVED MAHMOOD

SETTLEMEnT of circulardebt of power sector PSEsand public procurementagencies resulted in a sub-

stantial Rs572.2 billion increase in thestock of total debt & liabilities (TDL),during the first five months of FY12.With the addition of circular debt, thequantum of total debt had mounted toRs12.7 trillion. However, after adjust-ing for this one-off factor, the incre-ment in TDL stock shows a lessermagnitude during jul-nov FY12 ascompared to the same period last year.

Furthermore, as external inflowstapered, the pressure of financing thefiscal deficit has fallen on domesticbanking and non-banking sources.While this trend may bode well interms of external indebtedness, it hasadverse implications for the privatesector. Moreover, declining foreign in-flows is also putting pressure on Pak-istan’s FX reserves to finance currentaccount deficit. State bank of Pakistanhad mentioned these developments inits first quarterly report for FY12.GOVT DOMESTIC DEBT: The ris-

ing borrowing needs of the govern-ment were largely met from the bank-ing system through short term floatingdebt instruments. This resulted in fur-ther amplification of scheduled banksholding of domestic debt to 37.7 percent on end-nov 2011 from 33.4 percent on end-jun 2011.FLOATING DEBT: MTbs held byscheduled banks were one of the chiefsources of financing the circular debtsettlement in november 2011. Specifi-cally, government raised around Rs200billion from 12-M MTbs in the auctionheld on november 4, 2011. On the up-side, the maturity profile of floatingdebt has seen an improvement, afterthe monetary policy loosening by SbPin jul and Oct 2011. This is, due to ashift in commercial banks investmenttowards 12M T-bills instead of theshorter tenor bills. This shift towardslonger tenor securities will reduce theroll-over and interest rate risk faced bythe government. Furthermore, as a re-sult of the SbPs efforts to diversify in-vestors, the amount raised though thenon-bank sector in MTbs auctions hasalso increased sharply.

Encouragingly, the stock of gov-ernment debt held by SbP registered

Rs 45 billion reduction during jul-nov FY12 over the end jun 2011 posi-tion. as the government is trying tokeep additional budgetary borrowingfrom SbP at zero level, Rs 103.5 bil-lion were retired to SbP during Q1-FY12. However, it had to resumeborrowing from SbP in Oct 2011 asthe cut in policy rate and the resultantfall in MTb yields has dented sched-uled banks incentives for investing ingovernment paper. Resultantly, gov-ernment had to borrow from SbP tosettle the maturing amount.PERMANENT DEBT: The inflowsthrough permanent debt continued therising trend witnessed since Q2-FY11.Specifically, in the auctions held duringQ1-FY12, Rs 52.2 billion were raisedthrough PIbs, against a target of Rs 50billion. However, permanent debtstock recorded a surge in nov 2011, asthe government raised a hefty amountof Rs 195.0 billion for the circular debtsettlement through 5-year PIbs.UNFUNDED DEBT: The inflows intonSS instruments recorded a healthy20.1 per cent increase in jul-nov FY12over the same period last year. an analy-sis of monthly inflows shows that thedownward revision in nSS rates (in Oct

2011) has not, so far, discouraged invest-ment in these instruments.EXTERNAL DEBT: Pakistan’s ex-ternal debt stock fell by $255 millionon end-nov 2011, from its june 2011position, as compared to the hefty in-crease witnessed during the same pe-riod last year. However, after thesuspension of the IMF program inFY11, the weakening of external loaninflows was anticipated. The earlysuspension of the IMF program sentnegative signals about country’smacro-economy to other IFIs, whichhas halted their pipeline assistance.GOING FORWARD: With the risksmentioned to fiscal outlook aboveand weakening of external inflows,the stock of domestic debt is likely tocontinue the rising trend. as regardsthe servicing of debt, although the cutin policy rate has reduced the cost ofborrowing, these gains are likely to bepartially offset by the adverse move-ment in the Pak Rupee with rise inRupee cost of external debt servicing.Thus, in overall terms, debt servicingas a share of government’s revenues,which already stood at 43.3 perc entin FY11, is likely to increase furthergoing forward.

Circular debt enlarges debtstock by Rs572 billion

Punjab to miss 539,000tgram production target LAHORE

IMRAN ADNAN

Punjab is likely to miss gram productiontarget of 539,000 tonnes set for the currentRabi season as it is facing severe threat due

to negligible rain received by the barani areas,where it is mostly sown in the province. Speakingto Profit, a senior official in the Punjabagriculture Department said that the crop hadbeen sown over an area of 2,370,000 acres of landin the province. It is mostly sown in barani areafalling in districts of Mianwali, Khushab, bhakkar,Layyah, jhang and Muzaffargary. Last year, thiscrop had been sown on an area of 2,400,000acres in the province and area under this crop hadslightly decreased this year. However, sources inthe agriculture department said this decrease isnot that important as farmers do make changes intheir sowing pattern every year. but, theimportant thing is that now when the crop is incritical stage of growth, its growth is badlyhampering due to less rain fall this year. Thesources said that the gram crop direly need two tothree good spell of rains in which these areasshould receive seven to eight millimetre of waterto keep the prospects of a good crop and meetingthe production target alive.

Targeting entire Pharmasector unfair: PPMAKARACHI

STAFF REPORT

PaKISTan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers’association (PPMa) is shocked by thedeaths that have occurred in the Punjab

Institute of Cardiology (PIC) and express itsheartfelt sympathies to the bereaved families. “atthe same time we are seriously concerned thatthe entire blame for this tragedy has been passedon not only the six manufacturers who suppliedthe medicines, but also to the entire pharmaindustry. Three CEOs of our member companieshave been arrested by FIa, even before thesamples could be tested. This is unfortunate, asthey have prosecuted even before the result of thetesting labs,” asad Khuwaja, Chairman PPMasaid while addressing a press conference atKarachi Press Club on Monday. according to himPPMa member companies manufacture qualitymedicines which conform to the laid downprocedures under cGMP and qualitycontrol/quality assurance parameters. Thelicense of which are granted by the competentdrugs control authority is granted only when themanufacturer has complied with all theregulatory and quality control/ assurancerequirements as per the Drugs act 1976.

SBP, ICIEC sign MoU to promote trade, investmentKARACHI

STAFF REPORT

STaTE bank of Pakistan (SbP) and theIslamic Corporation for the Insurance ofInvestment and Export Credit (ICIEC)

Monday signed a Memorandum ofunderstanding (Mou) to cooperate in promotingtrade and investment in the country. ICIEC is amember of the Islamic Development bank (IDb)Group. The Mou, which was signed by Yaseenanwar, Governor State bank of Pakistan and Drabdul Rehman Taha, Chief Executive Officer(CEO) ICIEC, here at SbP, is aimed atestablishing a basis for the exchange ofinformation between the two entities on bankingindustry’s condition and operating performanceand ICIEC exposures on the banks operating inthe country. under the Mou, both the partiesshall cooperate for the purpose of promoting andsupporting the flow of trade and investment toand from Pakistan in accordance with theprevalent laws and regulations. SbP shallendeavour to provide/share banking industrywide, not of individual bank, information and itsreports, papers, etc on foreign investmentenvironment in Pakistan with ICIEC as andwhen desired by the corporation.

KARACHI

STAFF REPORT

THE study called bynational TariffCommission onMotorcycle industry is

being seen as another attempt toprovide duty free entry to just onebike maker from japan. accordingto the industry sources the nTC hasfor the first time decided to reverseits role and use the authority givento it by the government to protectthe local industry to conduct aninvestigation on the proposal by animporter (in this case Yamaha) toevaluate local tariffs with a view tofacilitate imports.The present nTC investigation isbased on the premise that the localindustry is overprotected andimporters need someunprecedented relaxation to becompetitive against a vibrant andgrowing industry. This will be aunique case in the history of tariff

protection not only in Pakistan butprobably in the world at largewhere an importer’s comments areused against the national industryin the way. as per sources aproposal by board of Investment(boI) failed to find any favours atany ministry except boI itself, thisis a desperate attempt to get theproposal through nTC. In case theboI gets its way at nTC, it mayprove to be a unique case of itsnature as in face of opposition fromall major ministries anddepartments like the Ministry ofIndustries, Ministry of Commerce,the FbR and the EDb, a proposalfor providing tariff relaxation to anentity is managed. The industryand the ministries are of the viewthat such relaxation to the newentrants in a growing andexpanding industry will createdistortions and will encourage briefcase assemblers to miss use anyrelaxation by changing their nameand getting themselves declared as

new entrants. already several briefcase assemblers have cases openedagainst them. as reported the nTChas called a meeting ofmanufacturers, vendors andimporters of motorcycles and spareparts in Islamabad on February 1st,after which a decision is likely thatwill allow new investment in thedomain of two wheeler industry byputting at risk the investment thatis already there in far greater size.The local motorcycle assemblersand vendors expressed theirconcern over this study by nTC asthis simply appears as a facilitationexercise for a blue eyed entrant,through heavy concessions induties and taxes. The amount ofconcessions being demanded andmade possible through this exercisewill translate into financing thepurported investment capital free.The amount of concessions over afive year period may well be morethan the promised foreigninvestment coming in. In addition,

according to the Pakistanautomotive Manufacturersassociation (PaMa) data the twowheeler industry has shownrecovery with a 13 per cent increasein production during the last fiscalyear. The present tariff structureallows import of CKD at 15 per centduty, and an approved assemblerwanting to import certain localizedparts is allowed to do so at a dutyrate of 47.5 per cent. under aIDP,the current CKD was supposed tobe further reduced to 10 per cent inthe current fiscal year. This tariffstructure has worked well for theindustry and at present more than70 motorcycle assemblers andanother around 20 manufacturersof three wheelers are now part ofthis vibrant and growing industry.It is to be noted that new entrantpolicy kept the two-three wheelersector out of its ambit in view of thepeculiar stage of the industry. Theindustry needs stability and notadventurism.

National Tariff Commission to protect local industry via investigation

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news

Tuesday, 31 January, 2012

03

CORPORATE CORNER

LG’s 3D UD TV presentscombination of immersive 3d

LAHORE: LG Electronics (LG) will unveil theworld’s largest 3D ultra Definition (uD) TV at theConsumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas.by combining LG’s industry-leading 3D technologyand Smart TV function with uD displaytechnology, the 84-inch TV breaks new ground inimmersive 3D home entertainment. “LG is pushingthe limits of home entertainment innovation withthis 3D uD TV,” said Havis Kwon, President andCEO of LG Electronics Home EntertainmentCompany. “We are bringing together all our SmartTV and 3D knowledge in the 3D uD TV in order todemonstrate to the CES audience that LG iscommitted to being the world’s leading brand forimmersive home entertainment in 2012 andbeyond.” PRESS RELEASE

Sanofi GM honouredby French GovernmentKARACHI: The newly appointed ambassador ofFrance to Pakistan, H.E. Philippe Thiébaud visitedthe Karachi Head Office of Sanofi Pakistan, wherehe conferred the prestigious French national award“Chevalier de l’Ordre national du Mérite” (Knight ofthe national Order of Merit) on Mr. Tariq Wajid,the General Manager & Managing Director of SanofiPakistan. Mr. Wajid was appointed French Knightof the national Order of Merit (Chevalier de l’Ordredu Merite) by the French President nicolas Sarkozy

in May 2011. When bestowed upon foreign citizens,this distinction, created by General Charles deGaulle, rewards their remarkable contribution toenhance relations between their country andFrance. PRESS RELEASE

Mobilink develops content-filteringsolution to reinstate BISLAHORE: Mobilink has developed andimplemented an innovative content-filteringsolution to reinstate internet services for theblackberry Internet Service (bIS). The initiative byMobilink allows subscribers to fully access theinternet, including social networking sites such asFacebook and Twitter, using their mobile devices.Omar Manzur, Director PR & CSR, highlighted,“Customer satisfaction is an essential driver atMobilink, and this content filtering solution is ourinitiative to restore full functionality of internetservices for our valued customers, whilemaintaining PTa regulations.” Mobilink pioneeredthe provision of blackberry services in Pakistan in2005. The service had been partially blocked in2010 following directives from the PTa to blocksocial networking sites and other websites thatcontained blasphemous content. PRESS RELEASE

Four Brothers Group Pakistancelebrates 10 Years of ExcellenceBHURBAN: Pakistan’s foremost agriculturalorganization Four brothers Group Pakistancelebrated its 10 years of excellence celebrationsin bhurban by organizing its Sales TeamConference and Family Get Together in whichmore than 550 agri Services (Tarzan) sales teammembers and the head office staff along with theircomplete families participated. The conferencewas chaired by Chairman Four brothers GroupPakistan Engr. jawed Salim Qureshi, CEO agroDivision Dr. Khalid Hameed, CEO TelecomDivision and Group Director Finance Muhammadnadeem Qureshi and GM Sales and Marketingagri Services Ch. Muhammad Tariq. Otherimportant personalities on the stage were GM

Seed Development Dr. Zahoor ahmad, GMMarket Research and Development Dr. ahmadSaleem akhtar and Ex-Chairman PaRC Dr. Zafaraltaf. PRESS RELEASE

PITAC join hands with WEC to enhanceskills development programmes

LAHORE: Pakistan Industrial Technicalassistance Centre (PITaC), Ministry of Industries,Government of Pakistan has signed a 10-yearagreement with a uK based organisation, WorldEducation Centre (WEC) to enhance the quality ofvocational training programmes andemployability of youngsters in the country. In theinitial phase, more than 10,000 skilled workers willbe trained by the end of 2015 under PITaC-WECventure and their job placements will be arrangedin various industries of Pakistan which is also inline with the policy of the Ministry of Industries,Government of Pakistan. PRESS RELEASE

CEO Bata Shoe organization Mr. R. Rizzo, Group MDBata Emerging Markets West, Malaysia Mr. FernandoGarcia and MD Bata Pakistan Mr. Imran Malik alongwith officials from the banking sector were presentat a dinner held at the Country Club. PRESS RELEASE

KARACHI: Chairman Pakistan Petroleum DealersAssociation, Abdul Sami Khan presenting flowerbucket with delegation to new appointed CEO &MD, PSO Naeem Yahya Mir during the meeting in hisoffice. PRESS RELEASE

KARACHI: Mr. Murat M. Onart, Turkish ConsulGeneral in Karachi, with Yasmin Lari CEO HertitageFoundation, Dr. Huma Baqai, IBA and others atInternational Women Leaders Summit held on 25Jan at Karachi Marriott. PRESS RELEASE

On behalf of TOTAL OIL PAKISTAN (Pvt) Ltd. AndTOTAL PARCO PAKISTAN (Pvt) Ltd., “Flood ReliefAssistance” was presented by Mr Qasim Zaheer –CEO & MD of Total Oil Pakistan (Pvt) Ltd. To MrMeer Mohammad Parihar, representative of TheRural Uplift & Welfare Association (TRUWA) forflood affected people in Badin District – Dec –2001. PRESS RELEASE

Bears prevail as index plunges by 77 pointsKARACHI

STAFF REPORT

P uLLbaCK was witnessed atthe local bourse in today’s ses-sion as KSE-100 index re-treated 77 points for the day toclose at 11,883 points. Market

volumes have also simmered since theexponential surge when the CGTamendment was announcement, andfinished the day at 67 million shares.

With an earnings announcementthat beat analyst expectations by a longshot, FFC was the undisputed marketvolume leader with 12 million shares.Lucky Cement also released its earn-ings estimate today which was in line

with analyst expectations. On the otherhand, byco closed six per cent lower onthe day as its losses increased from theprevious year. While we expect the re-sults season to keep volumes buoyantin the near term, investors don’t ap-

pear to be optimistic of the future,which will set the stage for more profittaking, said ali Hussain, Senior Invest-ment analyst at HMFS. KSE 100 indexclosed at 11883.01 levels with the lossof 77.21 points, while KSE 30 index

lost 46.06 points to close at 11170.50levels. all Share index closed at8231.91 levels after losing 53.91 points.Total 60 scrips advanced 169 declinedand 75 remain unchanged out of total304 scrips traded.

Fauji fertilisermaintains ureashare at 41 per cent

KARACHI

STAFF REPORT

FaujI Fertiliser Company (FFC)maintained its urea market share at 41per cent during CY11 by selling 2.4

million tonnes, marginally lower than CY10sales of 2.5 million tonnes. This is in line withthe five per cent decline in industry ureaproduction. The lower production is attributedto gas curtailment of around 12 per cent forcompanies on the Mari network. as a result,FFC’s plant was able to operate at 117 per centcapacity compared to last two years average of124 per cent. EnGRO sold 1.3 million tonnes ofurea, depicting a 33 per cent YoY jump fromCY10 urea sales of 0.95 million tonnes.Commencement of commercial operations of itsEnven plant is the main reason behind thisincrease. During the year under review,EnGRO’s market share went up to 21 per centfrom 16 per cent in the corresponding periodlast year. The Company’s production duringCY10 increased by 31 per cent YoY to 1.3 milliontonnes. However, the production figure was stillshort of its design capacity owing frequent plantshutdowns due to gas curtailment. FaujiFertiliser bin Qasim Limited’s DaP plantoperated at 101 per cent capacity, producing657,000 tonnes of the product in CY11 (CY10:655,000 tonnes). The company’s market shareincreased to 59 per cent in CY11 (CY10: 49 percent), and it sold a total of 658k tonnes of DaPduring the year. FFbL’s urea productionhowever, was down 16 per cent YoY to 440,000tonnes in CY11, mainly due to the company’sstrategy of prioritising production of highermargin DaP in the face of gas shortage. FatimaFertiliser Company Limited (FaTIMa)commenced commercial operations duringCY11 and produced 425,000 tonnes of urea.The company was able to capture a marketshare of 7.5 per cent during the period underreview. During CY11, FaTIMa produced141,000 tonnes and 324,000 tonnes of nPand Can respectively.

NEELUM-JHELUM HYDROPOWER PROJECT

Kuwait to provide $40 millionISLAMABAD

AMER SIAL

PaKISTan on Mon-day signed a loanagreement of $40million with KuwaitFund for arab Eco-

nomic Development (KFaED)that will help expedite construc-tion of 969 MW neelum jhelumHydropower project on the Riverjehlum in azad Kashmir.

The agreement was signedby Secretary Economic affairsDivision (EaD) abdul WajidRana and Chief Executive Offi-cer (CEO) of neelum jhelumHydropower Project Company(njHPC) Lt. Gen (R) Muham-mad Zubair. Secretary EaD,abdul Wajid Rana said that

signing a subsequently sub-sidiary loan agreement betweenEaD on behalf of the govern-ment and njHPC, a subsidiaryof Water and Power Develop-ment authority (WaPDa) was alegal requirement to make theloan agreement effective.

He said that with the releaseof $40 million from KFaED, thecash flow requirements for theproject would be resolved to agreat extent. He said negotiationswith China were underway to seekfurther financing for the project.

CEO njHPC said 30 per centof the work on the project wascomplete. He said the Tunnel bor-ing Machine (TbM) has alsoreached Pakistan which wouldreach the project site within next20 days. He said that the project

would be completed by 2016 andafter completion the TbM wouldbe utilised for other projects.

He said the cost of the projecthas increased Rs330 billion due todepreciation in rupee valueagainst dollar and increase in thecost of raw material for construc-tion. He said the project on com-pletion would help generate Rs45billion per annum in terms of rev-enue. njHP Project is locatednear Muzaffarabad upon comple-tion will have the capacity to gen-erate 969 MW 000 MW ofelectricity. The project is beingbuilt with the assistance offriendly countries. KFaED is oneof the donors of this project; theother donors are Exim bankChina, uaE and Saudi Fund forDevelopment.

Pakistan and India are bothconstructing separately two hy-dropower projects on the sameneelum River that runs throughthe disputed territory of jammuand Kashmir between the twocountries. The Court of arbitra-tion (Coa) Hague has alreadygiven a decision ordering India tostop carrying out construction ofany permanent works on or abovethe Kishanganga River bed at theGurez site that may inhibit therestoration of the flow of the riverto its natural channel.

Pakistan wants to completethis project before India to retainits chances of maintaining theriver flow which could signifi-cantly decline if India managed tocomplete its project first. The gov-ernment had imposed a surcharge

at the rate of 10 paisa on electricitybills to provide financing for theproject which generates about Rs5billion every year. The govern-ment had generated more thanRs18 billion during the last fewyears but due to financial con-straints the pace of the project hasremained slow. The project wasinitially approved by ECnCE in1989. The government has re-cently increased financing for theproject to complete it before time.

njHP is first of its kind in thecountry, as the power station in-cluding allied services and trans-mission system has been designedunderground to achieve optimumhydraulic head, given topograph-ical limitations of the area. Thus,almost 98 per cent of the projectstructure will be underground.

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