Seattle, WA 1NOAA LMR Workshop

NOAA Climate and Living Marine Resources

Workshop May 14, 2008

Dr. Chet Koblinsky Director, NOAA Climate Program Office

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Climate Services: Responding to Growing Demands

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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report had a Profound Impact

“There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and other regional-scale features, including changes in wind patterns, precipitation and some aspects of extremes and of ice.” WG1 SPM

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US Conference of Mayors Policy Statement, August, 2007

National Governors Policy Statement, 2007

Western Governors Association Congressional Testimony, 2007

Lehman Brothers Report on Climate and the Private Sector, 2006

University of Maryland Conference: Climate Information: Responding to User Needs, 2007

NCDC Workshop with Energy, Insurance and Transportation Sectors, 2007

National Intelligence Estimate: Climate and National Security

GAO Report on Climate needs of Federal Resource Managers, 2007

Coastal States Organization Report Report 2007

The growing demand for climate information

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Increased Public Awareness

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The Legal Need for Climate Services

• Federal agencies have a need for climate information in order to make scientifically and legally sound management and regulatory decisions.

• A number of judicial decisions emphasize the need to consider climate change as an important factor in their decision-making under statutes such as NEPA and the Endangered Species Act (ESA).

• A National Climate Service could support federal agencies in their missions by providing the accurate, integrated data needed to satisfy these increasingly important and complex needs for information.

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• S. 2355 - the Climate Change Adaptation Act – a national strategic plan for climate change adaptation– regional assessments of the vulnerability of coastal and ocean areas and

resources to hazards associated with climate change, climate variability, and ocean acidification.

• S. 2307 - the Global Change Research Improvement Act of 2007 – establishes a National Climate Service within NOAA.

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NOAA’s Climate Service Strategy

A comprehensive system that:• Monitors, collects and integrates Information

on the key indicators of climate and develops credible, usable, accessible and timely assessments and predictions of climate,

• Assesses climate trends, conditions,

projections and impacts

• Works with user communities to develop and transfer information into planning and decision-making.

NOAA’s Vision for a National Climate Service: An informed society anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts.

Climate Services

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Understand the Past and Current

State of the Climate • Climate System Observations

– Ocean– Atmosphere– Arctic– Carbon

• Data Management and Information

– NOAA’s Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System

– State of the Climate Report – Climatological Statistics and – Summaries

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• Understanding Climate Processes -– NOAA’s Research Laboratories, – Centers, and Cooperative– Institutes – Competitive Grants

• Earth System Modeling, Predictions, and Projections -

– GFDL and NCEP coupled climate models

– Earth system model development

• Analysis and Attribution -– Reanalysis– Emerging focus on

Integrated Earth System Analysis and attribution

GFDL MODEL

Capturing the globaldistribution of the

short-lived Aerosols spreading out from the source regions

Advance Predictive Understanding and Skill about the Future State of Climate

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Assessing Evolving User Needs and Context

• Assessing Climate, Impacts and Adaptation -

– Global, national, regional, sectoral assessments of

vulnerability, impacts and adaptation

• Climate Services Development and Delivery -– National Integrated Drought– Information System (NIDIS)– Emerging foci on Coasts, Arctic, Living Marine Resources,…– Regional – International

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A Strategy for National Climate Services

• The proposed establishment, within NOAA, of a National Climate Service:

• To be the nation's identified, accessible, centralized source of authoritative, regular, and timely climate information

• This includes historical and real-time data, monitoring and assessments, research and modeling, predictions and projections, decision support tools and early warning systems, and the development and delivery of valued climate services

• The proposed establishment of a national climate services partnership across federal agencies:

• To become the mechanism through which the nation’s goals with regard to managing risks associated with climate variability and change are identified, and investments and activities relevant to the production and application of climate information are coordinated

• The focus of the partnership is on ensuring that highly usable, actionable, issue-focused information is produced and evaluated

• The intention is that the activities of the Service and the distributed set of resources throughout the nation (including universities, federal, state and local science and management agencies, and non-governmental organizations) work in close collaboration.

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In response to the emerging demand for climate information and a need for a coordinated service, NOAA has established an internal working group with representatives from each line office to begin to:

1. Define climate services and a National Climate Service

2. Define NOAA’s role for the provision of climate services

3. Assess evolving user needs for climate information

4. Assess other private and public sector involvement in climate services

5. Begin to develop a draft Climate Services strategy for NOAA

6. Engage external community

Developing NOAA’s Climate Service Strategy

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Climate ServicesNOAA’s fundamental and emerging capabilities in

Research, Observations, PredictionImpacts/Adaptation Research,Assessment and Operational

Services

Coastal andmarine resourcemanagement

AgricultureWater resourcemanagement, includingdrought

Urban planningand management

Financialrisk management/insurance

Energy

General public

Educators

NIDISEmerging framework

Emergingframework

An Issue-Focused Perspective on Developing Climate Services

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FisheriesMarine Protected

AreasConservationand Habitat Preservation

Hazard Preparedness

Protected Species

CZMA/coastalplanning

FisheriesCouncils

Private sector

State/localplanners

State assessments

State SeaGrant Prgms

Envir.Orgs (TNC)

National Ass.(NERRS, SG)

CSO Universities Generalpublic

EducatorsPolicy bodies (SGA)

Habitat(NMFS)

Sanctuaries(NOS)

OCRMEstuarine Reserves

(NOS)

Coral Reef Conservation

(NOS,NESDIS)

CoastalServices

Center (NOS)

S&T(NMFS)

OAR/SeaGrant

Strategic Partnership Framework: Linking Climate with Coastal and Marine Resource

Management

OCRMCoastal Programs

Other

Climate-sensitivemanagementdecisions

Stakeholders &Partners

NOAATechnical research,stewardship&resourcemanagementcapabilities

NOAA Climate Program

NCCOS

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NOAA Climate Activities in Support of Marine and Coastal Resource Management and

Planning

1) Initiate and Participate in Stakeholder Dialogues and Partnerships to Identify and Address Information and Capacity Needs

– Exploratory Discussion on the Potential Implications of Climate Variability for Coastal and Marine Resource Management and Conservation, with The Nature Conservancy (2005)

– Workshop on Climate Science and Services: Coastal Applications for Decision Making through Sea Grant Extension and Outreach (2007)

2) Stimulate and Support Applied Impacts and Adaptation Research, and Decision Support Resource Development

– Creation of a new focused, interdisciplinary research effort to address impacts, adaptation and decision support in coastal sector (SARP, est. 2005); competitive grants awarded FY06, FY07, FY08

– Continued support of RISA teams

1) Climate and Ecosystems Project in the Bering Sea (NMFS)

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What Does the Interface Between Climate and LMR Look Like? How Can We Identify the Needs and Solutions Together?