26 August 2010

Food Crises – Current Areas at Risk

Gary Kleyn

Manager

FDI Global Food and Water Crises Research

Summary

This paper considers the existing global food crises and seeks to identify any underlying

common threads and suggested solutions, with a view to better understanding where future

crises are likely to occur and what response is required. The big unknown, however, is future

climatic conditions, which could aggravate existing food crises, create new ones or,

conversely, increase crop yields in other regions.

Analysis

There are currently at least 33 countries that face a food security crisis. Fourteen have been

in this situation for more than a decade and are termed in the humanitarian sector as

‘protracted crises’. While food crises can occur following natural disasters, when they

continue for an extended time it indicates that other issues are prevalent. These may include

poor or non-existent public services, high levels of violence and the absence of regulation.

The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations produced a policy briefing in

February 2010 titled When Emergencies Last for Decades: How to improve food security in

protracted crises. It argued that as countries became less able to protect their citizens,

widespread hunger is a common consequence. A Famine Early Warning Systems Network

has been developed by USAid. It monitors and reports staple food prices in cities and towns

in food-insecure countries and is having some positive results in dealing quickly with crises.

What is Food Security?

Food security exists when all people, at all times, have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food

to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. - 1996 World Food Summit

Location and duration of food emergencies

Source: FAO, Economic and Social Perspectives February 2010

Regions to Watch

In the May 2010 Crop Prospects and Food Situation from the FAO, it was indicated that

despite record or bumper 2009 cereal harvests in many low-income food deficit countries,

food difficulties still persist in 29 countries. This is particularly so in Niger, Chad and other

Sahelian countries of West Africa. The Sahel Region is the zone between the Sahara desert in

the north and the Sudanian savannas in the south. It stretches across the north of Africa

between the Atlantic Ocean and the Red Sea.

Africa

Burkina Faso

This West African country suffered significantly from food riots after food prices increased

by about 64 per cent in 2008. It is now suffering, along with most countries of West Africa,

because of a prolonged drought. New methods of providing assistance have meant that

humanitarian assistance programmes have not interfered with domestic markets. Trade

between surplus and deficit areas have been working well.

Burundi

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees is providing protection to 19,898

refugees and asylum seekers. Internal political strife is causing food shortages. Burundi’s

opposition parties boycotted presidential and parliamentary polls in June and July.

Central African Republic

Civil insecurity restricts access to agricultural land, while high and volatile prices impede

food access. Economic recession led to a downturn in the mining industry in western

regions, aggravating the food insecurity situation.

Chad

Inadequate rainfall in the Sahelian zone has caused a significant drop in national cereal

production. Localised conflict is aggravating food insecurity conditions. It has a large number

of refugees located in southern and eastern regions - approximately 270,000 Sudanese and

82,000 from the Central African Republic.

Congo

This country had an influx of more than 100,000 refugees by the end of 2009, leading to

increasing pressure on limited food resources and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in eastern

Congo.

Côte d’Ivoire

In this case, the country is suffering from conflict-related damage. The agriculture sector has

been seriously damaged in recent years due to the lack of support services in certain parts of

the country (mainly in the northern half), fragmentation of markets, and other problems

caused by the lack of security.

Egypt

Egypt has the distinction of being the world’s top wheat importer, annually buying

approximately seven million tonnes from the international market. One-fifth of Egypt’s

population of 80 million is estimated to be living on less than $US1 per day. The country is

vulnerable to international food prices. With droughts in Russia and China in 2010, concerns

are rising that many people in the country face an impending food crisis.

Eritrea

Parts of Eritrea have suffered from adverse weather in 2009 during the main rain season.

The number of internally displaced persons and ongoing economic constraints are also

causing problems with food supply.

Ethiopia

Adverse weather in the 2009 rain season in eastern and north-eastern areas has been

aggravated by insecurity in some areas. However, current rains are improving pasture/water

availability in pastoral areas previously affected by dry weather.

Guinea

Access to food is negatively affected by high prices and inflation rates and by political unrest.

It is estimated that more than two million Guineans do not have enough to eat. The World

Food Programme estimates that 52.7 per cent of the population has moderate to severe

food insecurity.

Kenya

Kenya suffered from adverse weather during the main 2009 “long rains” season. However,

there has been a bumper maize crop in 2009/10. The price of maize in the urban areas of

Kenya has decreased by 10 to 20 per cent. Prices are likely to continue to fall as a result of a

price fixed by the government and the above average maize harvest in parts of the country.

Liberia

There has been a slow recovery from war-related damage. Inadequate social services and

infrastructure, and poor market access in the south-east, is causing high levels of food

insecurity. An April 2010 study by the World Food Programme warned that 2.3 million

residents in the south eastern reaches of Liberia and parts of Guinea were food insecure. Of

these, eight per cent were classified as severely food insecure.

Madagascar

Chronic food insecurity in the south is expected to increase due to drought-reduced crops

this year.

Mauritania

The country has suffered from several years of drought. There was a steep drop in

production in 2009, with the result that 370,000 people are in need of food assistance.

Mozambique

Maize prices have fallen since April but remain high as a result of inflation, adverse climatic

conditions in recent years, and strong demand from the feed industry.

Niger

There has been a sharp decline in cereal and pasture production in 2009 due to adverse

weather. It is estimated that 2.7 million people, located mostly in Maradi, Zinder and Tahoua

regions, are in need of food assistance this year.

Sierra Leone

There is a very slow recovery from war-related damage. Higher inflation rates are having a

negative impact on households’ purchasing power and food security conditions

Somalia

The country is burdened by conflict, economic crisis and adverse weather in the 2009 rain

season. However, the 2009/10 harvest, in February-March 2010, was good and provided

some relief. About 3.2 million people, however, are in need of food assistance.

Sudan

Significant civil strife continues, particularly in Darfur. Insecurity in southern Sudan, adverse

weather and a reduced 2009 cereal crop, have created high food prices. About 6.4 million

people are in need of food assistance.

Uganda

Adverse weather reduced the 2009 main season cereal crops. There is also insecurity, mainly

in the north and Karamoja region.

Zimbabwe

There was a sharp decline in the 2010 cereal harvest in southern and eastern parts of the

country.

Asia

Afghanistan

The country is dealing with conflict and insecurity, resulting in highly food insecure areas in

the centre, south-east and north-east of the country.

Bangladesh

Rice prices have risen 27 per cent in the past year. It is estimated that 40 per cent of the 160

million people live on less than $1 a day and are food insecure. The World Food Programme

says that the number of people who consume less than the minimum daily recommended

amount of food rose from 47 million in 1990 to 65 million in 2008.

Burma

Burma is suffering from a three-year long drought in the centre of the country and the food

crisis is worsening. It is also being hit by water shortages in parts of the country.

Iraq

Internal conflict continues to hamper the development of the agricultural sector of the

country. In addition, significant areas along the Euphrates River, which have provided the

food for the country, are dealing with declining river flows as a result of action to restrict the

flow by its northern neighbour, Turkey. In 2009 the country suffered from a poor harvest.

Lebanon

The country is still recovering from civil war and the 2006 war with Israel. The Food and

Agricultural Organization is working on rebuilding the agricultural sector through financial

support, which seeks to overcome food insecurity in the country.

Mongolia

The country is recovering from the coldest winter in decades. Extreme cold in the 2009-10

winter resulted in the death of nearly six million head of livestock out of a total of 44 million.

It has adversely affected the livelihood of some 500,000 people. Estimates of the severity of

the national disaster and the number of animal deaths keep increasing.

Nepal

The country has poor market access as a result of past disasters. There are transportation

difficulties which result in pockets of food shortages and price volatility. In addition,

insurgencies are re-emerging, potentially creating a fresh threat to peace.

North Korea

Economic constraints and a lack of agricultural inputs are continuing, leading to inadequate

food production and high food prices. A lean period before the harvest of the secondary

season in June-July 2010 aggravated food insecurity.

Pakistan

The country is dealing with increasing conflict, particularly as it deals with its worst floods in

the country’s history leading to a sharp rise in internally displaced persons. Pakistan has the

highest number of refugees in the world, hosting 1.7 million people. Wheat prices have risen

24 per cent in the year to February 2010 and have reportedly risen more than 300 per cent

in parts of the country as a result of the floods. It could take many years before the country

fully recovers from the floods.

Philippines

Past tropical storms and localised conflicts are an ongoing burden for the country.

Humanitarian assistance is still required for the two million people affected by the typhoon

that hit the northern island of Luzon at the end of 2009. In the southern island of Mindanao,

the displaced population in evacuation centres is more than 100,000 people. Dry weather

reduced the 2010 secondary rice crop harvest.

Sri Lanka

As a result of the conflict between the Tamils and the Government, the country has had to

deal with internally displaced persons and post-conflict reconstruction. Although the

situation is improving gradually, food insecurity continues in the northern and eastern war-

affected areas. Resettlement of internally displaced persons and recovery of the productive

systems are ongoing tasks.

Tajikistan

Unlike many other countries, Tajikistan’s food prices remained stubbornly high after the

2008 international food price hike. This has meant food insecurity in the country remains a

significant issue.

Timor-Leste

It is one of the poorest countries in the world. The National Priority Process, which was

adopted by the government, is focusing on productivity in the agricultural sector to improve

food security and the nutrition of the population.

Yemen

Effects of the recent conflict have created an increase in the number of internally displaced

persons. There are about 250,000 people still in camps. Political instability is likely to create

more food insecurity in the country.

Latin America and the Caribbean

Colombia

About 200,000 have been affected by heavy flooding in July. The food security situation in

Colombia is critical due to the loss of staple crops caused by indiscriminate spraying of coca

crops. However, direct cash transfers by the Inter-American Development Bank are lifting

the living standards of 1.5 million households in the country.

Cuba

Cuba has been suffering from a year long drought. Water reserves are at critical levels and

place the country at risk of a food crisis.

Haiti

Food assistance continues for the 1.3 million food-insecure people affected by the January

earthquake. By October, these needs are likely to decline but will still remain above normal.

Characteristics of Protracted Crises

In recent years, the term ‘protracted crises’ has been used to emphasise the persistent

nature of certain emergencies. It is important to evaluate what common threads exist in

those areas affected by food crises. This knowledge is already being used in early warning

systems and appears relatively successful at containing food crises.

Elements that characterise protracted crises include:

• non-existent or weak public institutions;

• weak informal institutions;

• state control that is challenged by the lack of resources and institutional failure;

• external legitimacy of the state is contested;

• a strong black market economy;

• existence of, or a high susceptibility to, violence;

• forced displacement;

• the deliberate exclusion of sectors of the population from enjoying basic rights;

• livelihoods being highly vulnerable to external shocks; and

• widespread poverty and food insecurity.1

1 Food Security in Protracted Crises: What can be done?, Food and Agriculture Organization 2008. FAO

While short term food crises are important, it is the crises that flow from generation to

generation that need the most attention to make countries self sufficient. Short term crises

are often caused by such occurrences as floods or droughts. To deal with long term

protracted crises, structural problems need to be considered, whether in governance, failed

institutions or conflicts over land and resources.. To put protracted crises in perspective, an

estimated 90 per cent of humanitarian aid is devoted to complex protracted crises. Thus, for

economic reasons alone, dealing with the structural problems that surround protracted

crises appears to be the key to eradicating many of the world’s food and water crises.

Causes

It is not easy to pin the causes of food crises down to one problem. Where they are

occurring, it is because of countries’ inability to attain self-sufficiency in agriculture or their

lack of alternative resources that could be traded for agriculture products.

In agrarian societies of the developed world, fundamental among a myriad of causes is the

absence, or shortage of, water. Some argue that climate change is also worsening the

situation in many countries. While agriculture in some countries, such as on the Arabian

Peninsula, is fed from underground aquifers, the norm is for agriculture to be reliant on

rainwater. Rain-fed agricultural systems account for over 80 per cent of agricultural land. It is

this agriculture that is most susceptible to climate change. For example, the fourth

assessment report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that yields

from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by 50 per cent by 2020.

According to a 2009 report from the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, titled

Integrated Solutions to the Water, Agriculture and Climate Crises, such a decrease in yields

will worsen the food security situation in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, with the worst long-

term impact being in Southern Africa. This is largely because the agricultural land in these

regions is owned by small-scale landholders, who are less able to adapt to changing climatic

conditions, while large-scale mechanised producers from North America, Europe, Brazil and

Australia are in a strong position to adapt to changing conditions. As a result, fluctuations in

climate could result in the developed world increasing its percentage share of the global

agricultural economy, so that the biggest challenge for the future could be one of logistics -

finding more efficient means of bringing the food to those areas with a food deficit.

Another cause cited is the lack of investment in agriculture. Speaking at FAO’s regional

conference for Africa in Luanda, Angola on 6 May 2010, FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf

said he believed the core problem in Africa, for example, was under-investment in

agriculture. Only nine African countries allocated at least ten per cent of their national

budgets to agriculture, as they had promised to do at the African Union Summit in Maputo

in 2003. In addition, the share of official development assistance from developed countries

that is allocated to developing country agriculture has fallen from 19 per cent in 1980 to

around five per cent currently.

Julian Cribb in his recently released book The Coming Famine: the Global Food Crisis and

what we can do to avoid it, says that there are a number of causes of food crises. On the

demand side, population growth is expected to stretch existing resources. Historically,

population growth has been highest in those countries that are already experiencing food

crises. In addition, consumer demand is changing as people in countries such as India and

China improve their diet as their incomes rise. Mr Cribb writes that global food demand is

expected to be 70-100 per cent larger in 2050 than it is today. With population increasing at

two per cent a year while food output is growing at one per cent a year, the gap is expected

to widen unless measures are taken to address the shortfall in food supply.

On the supply side, Mr Cribb notes that water availability will become an increasing problem

and food crises are often coupled with water crises. He expects that unless major new

sources or savings are found, farmers will have about half of current water supplies available

for their use by 2050. Future Directions International director, General John Hartley,

addressing a Kott Gunning breakfast in July 2010, noted the concerns about water crises. He

said contamination will be a major factor, as farm water will release chemicals and nutrients,

making water unsuitable for drinking or producing fish. In addition, General Hartley said that

over the last four decades, the amount of water available had shrunk by about two-thirds.

This is expected to halve again by 2025.

‘You may well ask if we have passed “peak water”’, he said.

Mr Cribb also believes that the world is running out of good farmland, due in part to urban

sprawl over previously productive agricultural land, but chiefly because much of the farming

land has been degraded to a point that leads to low crop yields.

Nutrient losses are also a concern, as they continue to be lost to the ocean or urban waste

streams. (FDI Strategic Analysis Paper, 9 August 2010 by Julian Cribb, Nutrients and the

future of Australia, see: www.futuredirections.org.au).

The future farmer will also need to consider alternative fuel sources, as energy prices for

fossil fuels are expected to increase in coming decades.

Other sources of future problems cited by Mr Cribb are: declining fish stocks, a lapse in

technological advancement, a changing climate, international political unrest and trade

barriers.

A relatively new phenomenon that has created concerns among food economists is the

alternative demand for land to produce biofuels. This has been blamed for increasing food

prices in 2008.

Current Assistance

The international community does not have a good track record when it comes to dealing

with food crises, particuarly protracted food crises. The FAO has acknowledged this in its

February 2010 briefing paper. In the paper it said that international intervention currently

falls into one of three categories. The first is humanitarian aid, which neglects long-term

consideration. Second, development assistance, which relies on functioning state

institutions and finally, nation-building activities that focus more on re-establishing the

public sector than addressing the source of the problem. The FAO believes that besides

immediate support measures, the root causes of the crises need to be addressed through

longer-term structural interventions.

To give an indication of the size of the food crises and the extent of those crises that are

termed “protracted”, it is worth considering how much assistance is provided by the United

Nations World Food Programme (WFP). In 2010 the WFP is involved in 74 projects that fall

under the term “Protracted Relief and Recovery Operations”. This is assistance that

continues year-on-year, as opposed to emergency operations, of which the WFP is expected

to implement 21 in 2010.

Of the US$5.3 billion ($6.2 billion) spent by the WFP in 2010, 53 per cent was devoted to

dealing with protracted crises. Therefore, clearly food aid to these countries over the past

decade or more is not solving their food crises. An analysis of other WFP programmes,

labelled as ‘emergency operations’, ‘development programmes’ or ‘special operations’, also

indicates that much of this work could well be described as protracted crises support.

Maplecroft has developed a Food Security Risk Index, which provides a comparative analysis

of the risk of food security across 148 countries. It provides a picture of global food security

by rating each country based on their performance across 19 key indicators. These include:

imports, exports, production of cereals, food production per capita, rate of

undernourishment per capita, water resources, GDP per capita and global aid shipments.

Maplecroft found that the USA has the most stable food supplies. India ranked 25 and is

rated ‘high risk’ due to unsustainable water use and an expanding population. Countries at

extreme risk include Haiti, Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe.

After the USA in the rankings come France, Canada and Germany. China is ranked higher

than India because the Chinese Government has placed a strong emphasis, albeit sometimes

unsuccessfully, on food self-sufficiency and avoiding shocks in supply and price. Buying large

areas of arable African land has also assisted China in shoring up its food security.

The founding director of Maplecroft and professor at Warwick Business School, Alyson

Warhurst, sums up the complexity that comes with food security.

‘Food security is a complex issue affected by a range of factors, including agricultural

development and capacity, international trade flows, poverty and income distribution,

foreign aid, as well as macroeconomic policies and government programmes on nutrition

and food fortification. Added to these are the impacts of global population growth and

climate change,’ Professor Warhurst said.

‘Both the public and private sectors will increasingly be called upon to mitigate risk from

food security, to maintain a stable societal context conducive to development.’

A new approach to dealing with food crises is through “cash for work” or “cash transfer”

programmes. In the past, food aid was undermining the local economy and the ability for

local farmers in these countries to become profitable or, at the very least, exist on a

sustainable footing.

Other solutions

There are several ways that food crises could be dealt with in the future. In 2008, the US

News and World Report identified eight ways to fix the global food crisis. While not

necessarily all-inclusive, these solutions provide a good basis for future debate on how to

deal with food crises.

The first method outlined in the report is to pause the development of the biofuel industry.

This can be achieved by removing or restricting government incentives.

Second, food aid delivery could be improved. Historically, food aid has been shipped to

those countries in need. This has, however, proven to be somewhat inefficient, incurring

substantial transport costs while the food takes a long time to reach its intended

destination. In addition, the food is often delivered either gratis or at a substantial discount,

thereby undermining domestic agricultural producers and traders. A better way may be to

provide cash, which can be used to source food geographically closer to where the food

crises exist. By these means agriculture in these areas can be fostered and the food can be

delivered in a timely and cost-effective manner.

The third point is to produce higher crop yields. This is easily said but less easily achieved. It

can be achieved by way of developing better farming techniques, such as no-till farming,

reducing fertiliser use and encouraging carbon retention in the soil.

Fourth, it is argued that a solution to global food and water crises could lie with growing

better crops, even potentially genetically modified crops or simply crops that are more

suitable to local conditions.

Fifth, it is important to curb the investment speculation that creates an atmosphere of boom

and bust cycles, which can damage the finacial viability of long-term agricultural producers.

Sixth, break down trade barriers and remove subsidies for farmers in developed countries.

The countries with food security issues simply cannot compete with these artificially low

food prices.

Seventh, eat less meat. Changing eating habits can help alleviate food crises. Due to the

energy and water required to produce meat, it is more efficient to produce plant-based

protein.

Eighth, share the crowded planet by means of better distribution of food, less waste in

countries of abundance and better support for impoverished nations.

Conclusion

While it may be a little too early to be optimistic, it appears that government, quasi-

government and non-government humanitarian organisations are getting better at dealing

with food crises. They are learning from past mistakes, while also developing early warning

systems that mean the crises can be either averted or reduced.

That said, changing climates and the grim assessment by some forecasters that the growth

in the food supply will be half that of population growth, are real issues that need to be

addressed through innovation and increasing international cooperation. It is this

investigative work that the FDI Global Food and Water Research Programme will focus its

energy on into the future.

©Future Directions International, 2010

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Email Gary Kleyn: gkleyn@futuredirections.org.au Web: www.futuredirections.org.au