mozambique food security update may...

Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, May 2009

MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update May 2009

• As the 2008/09 main harvests continue, food security is generally stable throughout Mozambique, including in areas that were food insecure due to drought during the 2007/08 production season.

• Nevertheless, moderate food insecurity is evident in parts of southern Tete and northern Maputo provinces (Figure 1), where poorer households have a limited ability to make up for production losses from poor agroclimatological conditions and pest infestations. Given their low cash incomes, these populations are further constrained by the current above‐average food prices.

• While assessments are being planned to determine the scale of need and appropriate response mechanisms in the country, findings from a FEWS NET/Samaritan’s Purse joint rapid food security assessment in Gaza Region 12‐16 May indicate current moderate food insecurity conditions are particularly worrying in Mabalane District, in Mapai Administrative Post of Chicualacuala District, and parts of central and southern Chigubo District. Harvests for most households in these areas are likely to last only until July, after which assistance will likely be needed.

• Prices of food commodities – including maize, groundnuts, beans, and sweet potatoes – are decreasing seasonably, although maize prices are still much higher than last year and the five‐year average. Normally, prices start decreasing in April. This year, however, price decreases were generally delayed by a month due to later harvests.

See www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale for more information on the FEWS NET food insecurity severity scale.

Source: FEWS NET

Seasonal calendar and critical events

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET MOZAMBIQUE Av. FPLM, 2698, Maputo Tel/fax: 258 21 460588 [email protected]

FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC 20006 [email protected]

FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

www.fews.net/mozambique

www.fews.net/mozambique

www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale


Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

Figure 2. Districts (in orange) covered by the FEWS NET/Samaritans Purse joint assessment, 12-16 May

Food security summary

While the Technical Secretariat for the Food Security and Nutrition Vulnerability Assessment Group (GAV) is planning for another round of assessments in June, food security appears to be generally stable in most of the country, including in many areas affected by last year’s drought. By the beginning of the upcoming lean season (October), however, low‐income and resource poor households may face food access constraints in some areas, particularly those that are semi‐arid, arid, and remote. Taking into account that the current year follows a period of severe drought in the interior of Gaza, Inhambane, and southern Tete provinces, food security in these areas this year could be affected by: failure of the second season; animal disease outbreaks that prevent animal sales; rapid increases in food prices; a persistent lack of potable water; and/or an extended lean season due to late onset of the 2009/10 rains.

FEWS NET’s April‐September 2009 Food Security Outlook highlighted geographic areas that should be closely monitored throughout the consumption year, including the semi‐arid districts of southern Tete and northwest Gaza provinces. In late 2008, these areas were moderately food insecure, a condition that resulted from protracted drought during the 2007/08 production season, and which was compounded by acute water shortages in semi‐arid areas, especially in Chigubo District, Gaza Province. Although not of concern currently, similar conditions are likely to be found later in the year in other semi‐arid districts in southern and central regions. Given improved but still irregular rainfall in these areas during the 2008/09 production season, the March 2009 VAC assessment also recommended their close monitoring.

Given these analyses, FEWS NET and Samaritans Purse carried out a qualitative rapid food security assessment May 12‐16 in Mabalane, Chicualacuala, and Chigubo districts in northwest Gaza Province (Figure 2). The assessment consisted of key informant interviews with district administrative authorities, agriculture authorities, community leaders, farmers, and household representatives. The assessment also included observations from community visits.

Assessment findings

In general, food security has improved substantially in the three assessed districts of Gaza compared to the same period during the last two years. However, due to irregular rainfall distribution during the 2008/09 production season, continued close monitoring is needed, particularly starting in July, when harvests from these areas begin to run out. Rural households in southern Mozambique are particularly vulnerable to production losses, given their livelihoods, which limit their ability to earn cash income, and general isolation from markets and roads. Unfortunately, as the flow of food from surplus production areas to deficit production areas in Mozambique is inadequate, due to factors including poor market structure, poor access roads, and low purchasing power in deficit production areas, households in these areas are unlikely to be able to turn to markets to reliably source food once their own stocks run out. To cope, they will sell forest products (e.g., firewood, charcoal) and other goods and crafts and begin consuming wild foods. Most families will also receive remittances from relatives in urban areas in South Africa and elsewhere. Poorer households will begin to exchange casual labor in neighboring areas for food, though these sources, too, will likely be limited.

Traditionally, in addition to agriculture, livelihoods in the assessed areas also center around livestock breeding. In recent years, the number of livestock in these areas has increased, thanks to government interventions to promote livestock

Source: FEWS NET



breeding to facilitate livestock numbers in returning to pre‐civil war levels. Despite increased livestock levels, consumption of livestock to improve food security is uncommon among local communities for cultural reasons, and the main use of these livestock is for sale during acute food insecurity crises. Within these areas, those households most at risk of food insecurity are the poor and very poor who have no livestock and are less able to cope once their crop production is exhausted.

Mabalane District

Of the three districts assessed, food security conditions in Mabalane were the worst. Rainfall for the 2008/09 season began on time but ceased early in January, when most crops were in the flowering stage and water requirements were at their maximum. The resultant overall low levels and poor distribution of rainfall, coupled with high temperatures from December to February, negatively affected crop development and significantly reduced crop yields – particularly for maize, the staple crop of Mabalane District, which is particularly sensitive to water shortages. Although final production figures are not yet available for the district, qualitative estimates from the district’s agriculture authorities indicate that planned figures for main season production were not met due to insufficient rains.

According to projections in April and observations during the FEWS NET/Samaritan’s Purse joint assessment, food reserves from this year’s production in the district are expected to last until July. It is therefore recommended that another rapid assessment be undertaken in the district at that time to: 1) assess the status of normal household coping strategies, such as selling charcoal or small animals, such as chickens, in exchange for food and 2) prevent households from employing extreme and negative coping strategies. Normal coping strategies are those that allow for continued food security without negatively impacting household livelihoods.

A second agricultural season is only practiced in the lowlands of Mabalane District by households that border river banks and those that have irrigation facilities. The number of farmers with access to such land is small. Seeds availability for second season production is another constraint that farmers face, and agriculture authorities state they are unsure whether there will be any input fairs to support these second season needs.

Most of the maize and other food commodities sold in Mabalane District originate from Chokwe, 75 kilometers east. Food access in both of these areas has improved during recent weeks, as newly harvested crops arrive on markets and allow for seasonal decreases in food prices. However, very poor households with limited or no income have relatively little access to food on these markets.

Livestock body conditions are currently good, and water availability, which is a chronic problem in the district, has improved thanks to moderate‐to‐heavy off‐season rainfall in early May.

Chicualacuala District

The bulk of Chicualacuala District expects relatively stable food security conditions this consumption year, as rains performed well in most areas, allowing crops such as maize, millet, sorghum, and cowpeas to grow normally. While the main harvest had not started at the time of the assessment, households were consuming other seasonal crops such as watermelon, which was available throughout the district. In addition, the rate of livestock sales ‐ a good indicator of the district’s food security status ‐ is lower this year than it has been at this time of year for the past two years.

In general, food reserves in this district are expected to last six months or more, and some sections of the district are qualitatively classifying the current cropping season as the best of the last five years. The exception to this promising picture is the Administrative Post of Mapai. Mapai is some 84 kilometers from the district capital, close to Mabalane District. As a result, food security in this Administrative Post is expected to deteriorate within two to three months, paralleling expected food security conditions in much of Mabalane.

Chigubo District

Chigubo District experienced moderate food insecurity from January to March, but seasonal crops such as watermelon began providing much‐needed relief for the majority of households in April. Like Chicualacuala District, food security in



Chigubo District is generally better this year than at this time during the previous two years, though specific conditions very according to area, as explained below.

In the north and center of the district, the main cultivated and consumed crops are millet and sorghum, with some maize in the center. The staple crop in the southern area is maize. Cowpeas are also a staple throughout the district. Availability of seed was not sufficient for planting during the 2008/09 production season, due to poor production levels from the 2007/08 production season. Given low production during the 2007/08 season, farmers were able to save little harvested seed for planting, and much of what normally would have been planted was consumed by households instead. Two seed fairs were held in October, but since most farmers sowed in early October, and rains did not start until December, most seeds dried up before they could germinate. Markets do not play an important role in Chigubo District, mainly due to the remoteness of the communities and isolation due to inadequate access roads. A second production season is only practiced in the lowlands of the district, and by a limited number of farmers.

Livestock body conditions are normal throughout the district. Water is also currently relatively available, though water availability problems are expected beginning in August.

In the north of the district, agroclimatic conditions were good for millet and sorghum, but inadequate for cowpea, resulting in production of about half of the area planted during the season. Cereal harvests are ongoing, and most households are currently also consuming watermelons. Animal body conditions are good and animal sales are low compared to the average for this time during the last five years. Food security in the north Chigubo District is therefore expected to be stable for the next six months or more. Extreme coping strategies, including consumption of wild roots, known locally as xicutso and matiwo, wild fruits, known as Macuacua and massala, and drinking of wild fruit juice, known as utchema, were employed up until March. Beginning in April, however, seasonal crops such as watermelons became abundant. In this zone, no second season is practiced, and water availability problems are expected to begin according to normal seasonal trends in August. This lack of water availability will force households to travel longer distances in search of water, resulting in absence from other activities like school and farming. Also, the shortage of water will force humans to share water with animals and to take it from other less potable sources, which may result in disease outbreaks such as cholera and diarrhea.

The central part of the district shows a less promising picture. Millet, sorghum, and cowpeas have performed relatively well, but local authorities reported that, as millet and sorghum from some communities matured, these crops were severely affected by birds, reducing crop yields by more than 70 percent in these areas. Beans have also performed reasonably well in central parts of the district, though maize did not perform as well due to inadequate availability of water from rains. Some poor to very poor households from the affected areas are now employing coping strategies such as reducing food consumption, as watermelon production comes to an end. These households need special attention and close monitoring beginning now and throughout the remainder of the consumption year. Aside from these areas, much of the rest of the central zone of the district is expected to have food reserves that last between one to six months, according to rainfall distribution and the timing of planting during the 2008/09 season. Livestock body conditions and water availability are similar to those conditions described for the northern zone.

In the southern part of Chigubo District, most households cultivate and consume maize and cowpeas. Since maize is sensitive to irregularities in rainfall, production amounts for the crop differ depending on the timing of planting. In areas where maize performed poorly or failed, households will require special attention – including food assistance – within a month. VAC assessments are expected to confirm the scale of need in these areas and will determine whether assistance through the Government of Mozambique, external donors, or a combination is necessary. In other areas, production is expected to last between two and six months. Cowpeas performed relatively well, and livestock body conditions and water availability are similar to that reported for the northern zone.

Generally, poor households in assessed districts face similar problems that include very low cash incomes, even in normal years. This limits the ability of households to make up for production losses without outside assistance. Income from the sale of crops declines when production is poor, but this has little effect on poor households, since they generally sell little of their crop production, and only a small amount of income is normally obtained through the sale of natural products (e.g., grass, building poles, etc.). In northern Gaza Region, poor households cannot cover basic minimum household expenditures



Figure 3. Rainfall estimate anomalies in Mozambique from the first dekad (10 days) of April through the first dekad of May

for items such as tea, soap, salt, primary schooling, and basic healthcare. This is true in most years, and is now further constrained by generally high food prices.

Seasonal progress

Harvests are ongoing throughout Mozambique and, where a second season is possible, planting has started. Normally rainfall ends in April, as was the case this season. However, off‐season rains occurred in early May, when no more rain was expected in parts of the central and southern region (Figure 3). These unexpected rains provided relief to semi‐arid areas in the interior Gaza and Inhambane provinces, but also provoked localized inundations of rice fields in Chokwe, where hundreds of hectares of rice at harvest stage were partially flooded and lost. According to district agriculture authorities in Chigubo, 64.5 millimeters of rain fell 3 May, and 40 millimeters 7 May.

1-10 April 2009 11-20 April 2009 21-31 April 2009 1-10 May 2009 Legend

Source: USGS/FEWS NET

The recent rains will also provide much‐needed moisture for second season farming in areas where it is practiced and where inputs were readily available. According to district authorities in Mabalane, Chicualacuala, and Chigubo, the current greenness of the vegetation would not be possible if the early May rains had not occurred. These rains are also good for pasture and water availability. Nevertheless, this welcome rain did not cover other areas of concern, such as Mágoe, parts of Cahora Bassa, and Changara districts of southern Tete Province. These districts require close monitoring for the remainder of this consumption year.

Markets and trade

Maize prices decreasing seasonably but still higher than average and last year

Prices for food commodities – including maize, groundnuts, beans, and sweet potatoes – are decreasing seasonably. In Chokwe, the reference market in southern Mozambique, monthly maize prices have been steadily decreasing since January, while in Nampula (northern reference market), Manica (centeral reference market), and Maputo (capital city reference market), maize prices only started decreasing in April as a result of the increased food supply from the recent harvest (Figure 4).

Markets in central and northern areas are primarily supplied by local production, while Chokwe, in the south, is supplied by local produce and maize from surrounding areas and the central zone. The capital city, Maputo, is primarily supplied with food commodities from the central and northern regions. Although decreasing seasonably, maize prices in these four reference markets are still much higher than last year’s price and the five‐year average price at this time. Normally, prices start decreasing in April (see average line, Figure 4), but this year decreases were generally delayed by a month due to harvest delays. The exception to this was in Chokwe, where good maize production locally and in surrounding areas led to a normal start of price decreases.



Figure 4. Nominal retail prices for maize in reference markets in Mozambique (in Meticais per kg)

The level of maize flows from productive areas of the country to deficit areas, especially into southern markets, will, in large part, determine the variability of maize prices throughout this marketing year. These flows are dependent on the status of local roads and transport costs, which, if they are too high, often push traders to export goods to neighboring countries rather than ship them to other parts of Mozambique.

Data source: SIMA

The latest report from the Agriculture Market Information System (SIMA), issued May 13, indicates that in the south, Maputo City has been receiving maize from Gaza, specifically from Xai‐Xai District, while Chokwe is receiving maize produced locally and from Manhiça District. In the central zone, the provincial capitals are supplied by local maize, while in the North, Nampula City is supplied by locally produced maize and by maize from Zambeze Province (Mocuba, Ile, and Alto Molócue districts). Further north, Pemba Market is supplied by Ancuabe District, while Montepuez is trading locally produced maize. Based on the expected overall good 2008/09 harvest, maize prices across the country are expected to decrease to nearly the same levels as last year, and to start increasing again around September, according to the average.

As the new marketing year has begun, the Cross Border Food Trade Monitoring Initiative, with funding from USAID and WFP, reported in its last bulletin that Mozambique’s informal maize exports made up 65 percent of all maize exports for March. Cumulatively, Mozambique continued to dominate the informal maize export market in 2008/09, with informal exports of 55,256 MT, representing 74 percent of all maize exports for the 2008/09 consumption season. Many of the border points recorded a drop in average nominal maize prices, both in local currency and in the US Dollar equivalent. This is attributed to increasing supplies as newly harvested crops arrive on local markets. Prices are expected to continue to decline through the peak of the harvest period in June/July.

i Famine Early Warning Systems Network

ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin May 2009

Monthly prices are supplied by the market information system in

Mozambique.

Maize, rice, and beans are the most important food

commodities. Maize is the staple food for the poor, with rice

most often used as a substitute. Beans are important to all wealth groups. Each of the markets represented here act as indicators for the broader region. Tete is representative for the province by the same name, Nampula is the main

market in the north and is representative for the region, and

has linkages with the interior of Zambezia and Nampula

provinces and coastal Nampula. Beira, Gorongosa, and

Manica market has links with Chimoio market, which has links with Gorongosa and southern markets. The Chokwe

and Maputo markets in the south are linked to the Chimoio, Manica, and Gorongosa markets in the central region. Chókwe is the reference market for the southern region, except Maputo, the capital.

ii


Famine Early Warning Systems Network

iii


Famine Early Warning Systems Network

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