First ASEAN Statistical Report on MDGs Indicators

Some Findings and Points For Discussion

ASEAN Secretariat PaperInternational Conference on MDGs Indicators

Manila, 29-21 October 2011

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Outline• Background• Feasibility Study• Objectives of the Report• Features of the Report• General Approach• Preliminary Results• Some Notes• Some Preliminary Findings

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Background• MDGs, poverty alleviation and narrowing the

development as important goals of ASEAN Community building

• The 8 goals and 21 targets of the MDGs and the Community goals of ASEAN

• Some significant challenges still need to be overcome to fully achieve the MDGs and narrow the development gap

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• Under the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC):– Joint Declaration on the Attainment of MDGs, 2009.

• Roadmap and monitoring and evaluation system– Framework Plan of Action on Rural Development and

Poverty Eradication– Work Plan for Primary Education and Gender Equality– Work Plan on the Elimination of Violence against

Women• The narrowing development gap

Background

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Background• Strong demand for ASEAN level indicators

– support the implementation and monitoring of the Joint Declaration on the attainment of the MDGs, ASCC Blueprint;

– very little is available concerning ASEAN level socio-cultural indicators;

– demand for absolute value of ASEAN figures on key indicators such as poverty, infant mortality, children with malnutrition, unemployment, etc.

– demand for sub-region of ASEAN (CLMV and ASEAN6) to facilitate the narrowing development gap.

• reinforce the “we” feeling.

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Feasibility Study, 2010 Q3

• Involving 10 ASEAN Member States• Outcomes:

– No single country in ASEAN has covered all of the 60 MDGs indicators;

– Some indicators have different data sources at the country level, and different definition across countries;

– Some data are available only in a few countries;– The reference period and reference population of some

data differ across countries;– Some are not disaggregated enough to yield a breakdown

by sex, age group, etc.

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Feasibility Study, 2010 Q3• possible to compile an ASEAN Statistical Report

on the MDGs covering a subset of the recommended indicators– For some indicators, meaningful ASEAN aggregates

are possible;– Differences in reference year can be approached by

using data closest to the reference year;– For some, the missing figures can be addressed by

using estimates;– In cases where meaningful comparison is unlikely, the

change in level and change in discrepancies can still provide meaningful information

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Objectives of the Report

• to present data on MDGs indicators to facilitate the monitoring of progress of ASEAN Community in meeting its commitments in achieving the millennium development goals– where the ASEAN Community is with regards to the

MDG goals and targets– progress by which the ASEAN is moving towards the

MDGs

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Features of the Report• a statistical report; as such, it will not:

– evaluate policies and programs– provide policy/program analysis/ recommendations

• presents:– Tables, charts, maps– progress, disparities, pace of progress, years needed to

reach a certain target– ASEAN and sub-ASEAN region

• covers: 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010• covers, as a start, 27 agreed indicators• to be updated every 2 years: 2011, 2013, 2015

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General approach

• AMSs should be involved in all stages• Any estimates should be done in collaboration

with AMSs and get AHSOM endorsement– ASEAN Heads of Statistical Offices Meeting (AHSOM)

endorsed in July 2010 the plan to carry out a feasibility study

– In December 2010 AHSOM endorsed the workshop’s recommendations including the proposed 27 indicators

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General Approach

• Basic data will come from the official statistics of AMSs

• Imputations using linear interpolations will be done to come up with data for the selected years – 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010, as necessary

• Imputed values will be subject to review and approval by the AMS

• ASEAN aggregate will be based on at least 5 AMSs covering more than 50% of ASEAN population

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Classification of Progress

• For indicators with explicit targets by 2015– Early achiever: already achieved the 2015 target– On track : expected to meet the target by 2015– Slow: expected to meet the target by after 2015 – No progress/regressing: stagnating or slipping backwards

• For indicators without explicit targets by 2015– Early achiever: trending in the right direction since 1990– On track : showing no change at all over the period – Off track -No progress/regressing: trending in the wrong

direction

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Preliminary Results

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Full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people

The proportion of employed population increased over time; and in 2010 , 60.8 % population in ASEAN5 are estimated to be employed, with Singapore having the highest proportion.

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Net Enrollment Ratio in Primary Education

Net enrolment ratio in primary education has generally increased, from 86.9 percent in 1990 to 90.6 percent in 2010.

Myanmar and Thailand showed the greatest advances, significantly narrowing the gap with other ASEAN 5 countries

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Gender Equality and Empower Women

Girls and boys have almost equal opportunities in attending primary and secondary education, with the boys at a slight advantage.

Girls have more access in Thailand and Myanmar.

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Seats held by women in national parliament

ASEAN level figure was still les than 15% in 2010, and will be very much affected as more data is available

An indication of strong positive trend, however, is apparent.

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CLMV continues to lag behind ASEAN6 in reducing infant mortality

Both ASEAN 6 and CLMV have successfully reduced mortality rate to lower than half since 1990. However, in 2010 both still recorded around or above 20, and CLMV continues to lag behind the ASEAN 6.

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

ASEAN 6 56 46 35 28 19

CLMV 75 55 48 36 29

Ratio of ASEAN 6 to CLMV

0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7

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Infant mortality rate has declined by more than half from1990 to 2010

Despite the progress, there are still an estimated 150,000 children who died before they reached the age of one year old, or about 415 infants die each day in the region.

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77 percent of children immunized against measles in 2010

From 59 percent in 1995, the proportion of 1-year old children immunized against measles has gone up to 77 percent

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ASEAN has significantly reduced the number of births not attended by skilled health

personnel since 1990

In 2010, however, 1 out of every 5 births still unattended by skilled health personnel

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ASEAN has halved Maternal Mortality Ratio since 1990

Despite the progress, 44 women die each day from pregnancy related causes; and progress towards reducing by three quarters the maternal mortality ratio has been slow

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Disparities in Maternal Mortality Ratio, however, was huge in 2010

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Efforts to combat malaria and TB have led to dramatic reduction in the incidence of

malaria but mild in TB

incidence of malaria has declined from 755 cases per 100,000 population in 1990 to 198 cases per 100,000 population to 2010, but only from 148 to 132 cases per 100,000 population for tuberculosis

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Disparity was however still extremely high in 2010

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The loss of forest cover slowed down. Recent data suggest that reforestation

efforts have halted further declines.

The proportion of land area covered by forest has declined by 4 percentage points since 1990, but the loss of forest cover slowed down recently.

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The target of 69.5 percent for improved sanitation for 2015 has been achieved in

2010!

However, 3 out of every 10 persons in 2010 still do not have access to improved sanitation facility

more than one-third (37%) of the population still do not have access to improved drinking water source (caution: Indonesia’s case, only 44%)

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Access to new information and communication technologies has been

increasing rapidly

There are 83 cellular subscribers for every 100 population in 2010, up from 23 in 2005; and 21 internet users per 100 population in 2010, up from 6 in 2005.

The increase in telephone lines has been slower, from 4 per 100 population in 2000 to 9 in 2010

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CLMV have caught up with those in ASEAN 6 in the proportion of telephone lines and cellular

subscribers

2000 2005 2010

ASEAN 6 5 10 9

CLMVa 2 4 9

Telephone lines

2005 2010

ASEAN 6 29 85

CLMVa 7 77

2005 2010

ASEAN 6a 6 22

CLMVb 5 12

Cellular subscriber Internet users

Per 100 population Per 100 populationDoes not include Lao PDR

Per 100 populationASEAN 6 does not include Malaysia and the PhillippinesCLMV does not include Lao PDR

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Cellular phone subscribers reached more than 100 in Singapore, Viet Nam, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam, and

Thailand, and above 70 in others except in Myanmar

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Indication of Pace of Progress in ASEAN (Preliminary)

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger TargetEstimate for 2010 Progress

Target 1.A: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day

Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day x    Proportion of population below the national poverty line 26 19

early achiever

Share of poorest quintile in national consumption

     Target 1.B: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people

Growth rate of GDP per person employed      Employment-to-population ratio      

Target 1.C: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

Prevalence of underweight children under-five years of age

17.4 17.3early

achiever

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Indication of Pace of Progress (preliminary)

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education      Target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

Net enrolment ratio in primary education 100 90.6 slowLiteracy rate of 15-24 year-olds, women and men

  98.6 on track

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women      Target 3.A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015

Ratio of girls to boys in primary education 100   slowRatio of girls to boys in secondary education 100 99 on trackRatio of girls to boys in tertiary education

100   off trackProportion of seats held by women in national parliament     slow

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Indication of Pace of Progress (Preliminary)

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality  TargetEstimate for 2010 Progress

Target 4.A: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate

Under-five mortality rate 33 41 On trackInfant mortality rate 21 24  On trackProportion of 1 year-old children immunised against measles 77 on track

Goal 5: Improve maternal health       Target 5.A: Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio

Maternal mortality ratio 73 146 slowProportion of births attended by skilled health personnel

  78early

achiever

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases      Target 6.C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases

Incidence of malaria

  198early

achieverIncidence of tuberculosis

   132 early

achiever

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Indication of Pace of Progress (Preliminary)

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability      Target 7.A: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources

Proportion of land area covered by forest

54 off trackTarget 7.C: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation

Proportion of population using an improved drinking water source 77.5 63 slowProportion of population using an improved sanitation facility

69.5 70early

achiever

Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development    Target 8.F: In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications

Telephone lines per 100 population 29

early achiever

Cellular subscribers per 100 population

  83early

achieverInternet users per 100 population

  21early

achiever

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Some Notes

• Not showing a full picture of MDG achievement• In some cases not showing a full picture of

ASEAN. • Some figures are subject to change and more

indicators will be presented as more data is available.

• The same issues of definition as faced by other international organizations remain

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Some Preliminary Findings

• Some countries are catching up very fast with their neighbors.

• Some countries have experienced reversals. • Countries that are lagging behind are not always the

CLMV countries. • While the ASEAN 6 may be performing better than the

CLMV countries in terms of economic performance, this is not usually the case with respect to the MDG indicators.

• Disparities among countries are pronounced especially in maternal mortality ratio,…

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Caution in Interpretation

• Different Practices such as in:– Birth attended by skilled health personnel– Slow maternal mortality

• Bottled water• Forest cover• Comparability with international estimates• Harmonization of concept and definition

THANK YOU

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