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64

eqspertis azri

64

Tornike SaraSeniZe

saqarTvelos adgili ruseTis sagareo politikaSi

eqspertis azri

Tornike SaraSeniZe

saqarTvelos adgili ruseTis sagareo politikaSi

64

2016

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉGEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

publikacia daibeWda TurqeTis TanamSromlobisa da koordinaciis saagentos finansuri mxardaWeriT.

redaqtori: rusudan margiSvili

teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe wignis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos nebismieri,

maT Soris, eleqtronuli an meqanikuri formiT.

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2016 weli

ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-0-9287-9

rusul-qarTuli urTierTobebi erTob saintereso Temaa ara mxolod imitom, rom ruseTi saqarTvelosaTvis warmoadgens usafrTxoebis erT-erT umTavres gamowvevas. es Tema sainteresoa, radgan igi, erTi mxriv, exeba msoflios erT-erT wamyvan da gavlenian saxelmwifos, romelic cdilobs moipovos eqskluziuri gavlenis sfero Tavis samezobloSi da iTamaSos met-naklebad yvelasgan damoukidebeli TamaSi, xolo meore mxriv _ saqarTvelos _ erT dros ruseTis imperiis nawils, romelic gansakuTrebul rols TamaSobda ruseTis politikur da sazogadoebriv cxovrebaSi da romelsac rusuli politikuri elita (da aseve mosaxleobis didi nawili) dResac gamorCeul yuradRebas uTmobs.

saqarTveloSi ruseTis mimarT ganwyoba araerTgvarovania. ruseTs zogjer miaweren msoflioSi yvela borotebas (maT Soris, teroristuli organizaciebis farul dafinansebas) da masve abraleben saqarTvelos yvela warumateblobas. arsebobs (Tumc ki gacilebiT ufro marginaluri) sapirispiro Sexeduleba, romlis mixedviTac, ruseTi aris sulierebis, „WeSmariti marTlmadideblobis“ damcveli da, maSasadame, saqarTvelos mfarvelic, romelmac saqarTvelo araerTxel ixsna da romlis gareSec qveyana da xalxi ganwirulia.

mokled, ruseTis SefasebaSi emociebi sWarbobs da miuxedavad imisa, rom saqarTvelos ruseTTan urTierToba or saukuneze mets iTvlis, Cvens qveyanaSi kvlavac ruseTis codnis seriozuli deficitia. emociebis siWarbis garda, es ganapiroba im faqtmac, rom saqarTvelos axali politikuri elitis did nawils dasavluri ganaTleba aqvs miRebuli da amitom ruseTis SeswavlisaTvis gansakuTrebuli yuradReba ar dauTmia. axalgazrda Taoba ki ruseTs praqtikulad mowyvetilia da arc rusuli ena icis. es, erTi mxriv, SeiZleba kargi iyos, radgan amcirebs rusuli propagandis gavlenas qveyanaze, magram, meore mxriv, warmoSobs codnis did deficits, rasac saboloo jamSi negativi meti moaqvs, vidre pozitivi.

yovelive zemoTqmuli aisaxeba ruseTis misamarTiT gatarebul saxelmwifo politikaSi. praqtikulad saqarTvelos

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yvela politikuri elita xelisuflebaSi mosvlis Semdeg cdilobda ruseTTan urTierTobebis dalagebas, rasac Semdeg mudmivad mosdevda imedgacrueba da kritika oponentebis mxridan. Semdeg xelisuflebaSi mosuli oponentebic zustad imave gzas adgebodnen, rasac prognozirebadi Sedegebi mohyveboda.

Cveni mizani ar aris CamovayaliboT ruseTTan dakavSirebiT saqarTvelos politikis prioritetebi da mimarTulebebi. Tumca, amave dros SevecdebiT gavaanalizoT saqarTvelos mimarT ruseTis damokidebuleba, am damokidebulebis mizezebi da istoriuli safuZvlebi da aqedan gamomdinare avxsnaT ruseTis politika saqarTvelosTan mimarTebaSi. yovelive amis wyalobiT naSromi SesaZloa gamodges ruseTis mimarT politikis principebis CamoyalibebisTvisac.

ruseTis, rogorc didi saxelmwifos, tradiciuli interesebi

ruseTi ara mxolod saqarTvelos yvelaze didi da Zlieri mezobelia, aramed msoflio politikis erT-erTi wamyvani moTamaSecaa. cxadia, rom am moTamaSes Tavisi interesebi aqvs uSualo samezobloSi da, miT umetes, yofil sabWoTa kavSirSi. ruseTs araerTi omi gadautania, ramac mas usafrTxoebis seriozuli kompleqsi Camouyaliba. gansakuTrebiT mZime iyo meore msoflio omi, romlis Semdegac ruseTis maSindelma xelisuflebam gadawyvita yvelaferi gaekeTebina, raTa momavalSi aecilebina mtris moulodneli Tavdasxma (rogoric aRmoCnda, germaniis mxridan Tavdasxma 1941 wlis 22 ivniss). Sesabamisad, maSin gadawyda sabWoTa kavSiris samezobloSi sateliti saxelmwifoebis Camoyalibeba, romelTa teritoriebidan agresiis ganxorcieleba gamoricxuli iqneboda. dasavleTis saxelmwifoTa (pirvel rigSi, aSS-is) liderTaTvis es survili gasagebi iyo da isini Seguebuli iyvnen imas, rom aRmosavleT evropis saxelmwifoebi ruseTisadmi (sabWoTa kavSirisadmi) megobrulad unda yofiliyvnen ganwyobili da sagareo politikis gatarebisas moskovis interesebi unda gaeTvaliswinebinaT (daaxloebiT

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ise, rogorc es iyo fineTis SemTxvevaSi, civi omis dros). magram moskovSi CaTvales, rom mxolod es monapovari sakmarisi ar iqneboda da sabolood gadawyda aRmosavleT evropis qveynebSi sateliti komunisturi reJimebis dasma. amis wyalobiT sabWoTa kavSirma Tavis garSemo usafrTxoebis sartyeli ki Seqmna, magram, meore mxriv, moskovSi ver gaTvales, rom aseT nabijs Sesabamisi reaqcia mohyveboda dasavleTis mxridan da rom sabWoTa kavSiri metad mZime konfrontaciaSi aRmoCndeboda CarTuli, ramac sabolood igi Seiwira kidec.

cxadia, sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg viTareba am mxriv radikalurad Seicvala _ ara mxolod CamoiSala komunisturi reJimebi, aramed aRmosavleT evropis qveynebis udidesi nawili natoSi gaerTianda da meore msoflio imis Semdeg Seqmnili usafrTxoebis sartyelic gaqra. moskovs arasodes daumalavs, rom movlenaTa amgvari ganviTareba misTvis miuRebeli iyo da rogorc ki Zala moikriba, natos gafarToebas yvela SesaZlo gziT SeewinaaRmdega. axlandelma premier-ministrma medvedevma pirdapir ganacxada, rom 2008 wlis omi saqarTvelosTan iyo omi natos gafarToebis winaaRmdeg. cxadia, nawilobriv mainc, natoSi ukrainis Sesvlis SiSmac ganapiroba yirimis aneqsia da aRmosavleT ukrainaSi SezRuduli omis wamowyeba. saerTod, rTuli saTqmelia ruseTisaTvis sad mTavrdeba ucxo saxelmwifodan Tavdasxmis SiSi da sad iwyeba imperiuli gafarToebis survili, Tumca albaT SiSis faqtoris bolomde ugulebelyofa mainc ar SeiZleba.

rogorc SiSis, ise imperiuli gafarToebis faqtoris gaTvaliswinebiT, ruseTisaTvis kategoriulad miuRebelia mis samezobloSi sxva didi saxelmwifos yofna (miT umetes ki, Tu es samxedro xasiaTisaa). es damokidebuleba vrceldeba samxreT kavkasiazec, romelic ruseTma me-19 saukuneSi sxva did saxelmwifoebTan (adrindeli TurqeTi da irani) omis Semdeg Semoimtkica. sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg ki ruseTma samxreT kavkasiis udidesi nawili uomrad daTmo da am garemoebasTan Segueba albaT ioli ar aris. miT ufro gamaRizianebelia moskovisaTvis is faqti, rom samxreT kavkasiaSi uomrad fexs ikidebs misi umTavresi metoqe _ aSS.

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cxadia, roca SiSis faqtorze vlaparakobT, Cndeba kiTxva _ ramdenad aris es SiSi gamarTlebuli da ratom ar SeuZlia ruseTs ufro metad dauaxlovdes dasavleTs (romlisac eSinia), Seerwyas evrokavSirs da imuSaos natoSi gawevrianebazec? magram es kiTxva logikurad JRers mxolod maSin, Tuki ruseTs SevxedavT, rogorc tipur evropul saxelmwifos, romlis moqalaqeebic, pirvel rigSi, sakuTar keTildReobaze fiqroben da ara maTi qveynis prestiJsa da didebaze. ruseTi aseTi saxelmwifo namdvilad ar aris, igi sakuTar Tavs azias ar miakuTvnebs, magram amave dros arc dasavleTis srulfasovan nawilad surs qceva, radgan aseT SemTxvevaSi ubralod evrokavSiris erT-erT rigiT qveynad iqceva da dakargavs imas, razec dgas rusuli saxelmwifoebrivi identoba _ ambicias iyos msoflios erT-erTi polusi. msoflios erT-erTi polusisaTvis ki, cxadia, sasicocxlod mniSvnelovania (isev da isev), sul mcire, Tavis samezobloze gavlenis mopoveba.

ruseTis damokidebuleba saqarTvelos mimarT _ istoriuli foni

ruseTis gansakuTrebuli damokidebuleba saqarTvelos mimarT ramdenime faqtoriTaa ganpirobebuli.

imperiuli gafarToebis faqtori. Tavis droze saqarTvelos dapyrobam saetapo roli Seasrula ruseTis imperiis istoriaSi. swored saqarTvelos dapyrobis Semdeg SeZlo ruseTma Crdilo kavkasiis saboloo damorCileba. saqarTvelos dapyrobis Semdeg ruseTma gaxsna axali frontis xazi TurqeTis winaaRmdeg saomrad (iqamde TurqeTs igi mxolod balkaneTis mxridan eomeboda). saqarTvelo iqca erTgvar placdarmad, saidanac ruseTma ganagrZo eqspansia samxreT kavkasiaSi, xolo samxreT kavkasiaSi fexis mokidebis Semdeg ruseTma ukve daiwyo eqspansia Sua aziaSi. amrigad, saqarTvelo iyo is qveyana, romlis dapyrobis Semdegac ruseTma ganaxorciela warmatebuli omebi (ara mxolod TurqeTis, aramed aseve iranisa da avRaneTis winaaRmdeg) da SemoierTa axali teritoriebi. am istoriuli gamocdilebidan gamomdinare, ruseTisaTvis saqarTvelos kontroli aris

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aucilebeli piroba kavkasiis (da nawilobriv Sua aziis) kontrolisaTvis. es ara mxolod zrdis saqarTvelos mniSvnelobas da wonas ruseTisaTvis, aramed ganapirobebs imasac, rom ruseTi gansakuTrebiT mZimed aRiqvams metoqe didi saxelmwifoebis (pirvel rigSi, amerikis) gavlenis zrdas saqarTveloze _ Tuki saqarTvelo romelime metoqe saxelmwifos gavlenis qveS aRmoCndeba, maSin es saxelmwifo SeZlebs Tavisi gavlena (da, SesaZloa, kontrolic) gaavrcelos mTel kavkasiaze da, SesaZloa, Sua aziazec (rogorc es gaakeTa Tavis droze Tavad ruseTma).

garda amisa, saqarTvelos ruseTisgan hyofs bunebrivi barieri kavkasionis qedis saxiT, romelic realurad aris sazRvari ruseTsa da samxreT kavkasias Soris. Sesabamisad, ruseTisaTvis dauSvebelia, rom es bunebrivi barieri sxvis xelSi aRmoCndes. kavkasionis qedis garda, saqarTvelos geografia gamorCeulia Sav zRvaze gasasvleliTac. Savi zRva tradiciulad ruseTis imperiis erT-erT yvelaze daucvel adgils warmoadgenda da masze gavlenis gafarToeba ruseTis erT-erTi mTavari amocana iyo. Tavis droze ruseTma Zalian bevri gaakeTa imisaTvis, rom xelSi Caegdo konstantinopoli, kontroli daemyarebina bosforisa da dardanelis sruteebze da amgvarad Savi zRva saerTod Caeketa da iq ar daeSva mtruli saxelmwifoebi (TurqeTTan omebic swored am mizniT iwarmoeboda). es Canafiqri sabolood ver ganxorcielda, magram, cxadia, Savi zRvisadmi ruseTis interesi arsad gamqrala _ ver akontrolebs ra bosforisa da dardanelis sruteebs, ruseTi cdilobs Savi zRvis did nawilze mainc daamyaros kontroli da amiT moaxdinos savaraudo safrTxis minimalizacia. yirimis aneqsia kargad warmoaCens, Tu raoden did mniSvnelobas aniWebs ruseTi Sav zRvas.

saqarTvelos geografia ruseTisaTvis sayuradReboa Crdilo kavkasiasTan mezoblobiTac. es dRevandeli ruseTis yvelaze arastabiluri regionia da ruseTis politikuri elita SiSobs, rom qveynis destabilizacia (da SesaZloa dezintegraciis procesic ki) SesaZloa swored am regionidan daiwyos da saamisod gare mtrulma Zalebma placdarmad saqarTvelo gamoiyenon.

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alternatiuli savaWro-energetikuli gzis faqtori. 90-iani wlebis bolodan moyolebuli ruseTi yvelanairad cdilobda daebloka baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis proeqti. cxadia, Tavad es proeqti mas did safrTxes ver uqmnida (am milsadenis mier gatarebuli navTobis odenoba ruseTis, rogorc energomommarageblis, poziciebs namdvilad ver aryevs), magram safrTxe momdinareobda Tavad precedentidan, rom kaspiis zRvis energoresursebis eqsporti msoflio bazarze ganxorcieldeboda ruseTis gverdis avliT. garda amisa, am proeqtma saqarTvelo dasavleTisaTvis saintereso qveynad aqcia da misi poziciebi gaaZliera. baqo-Tbilisi-jeihans mohyva baqo-Tbilisi-erzrumis proeqti, ramac mkveTrad Seamcira saqarTvelos damokidebuleba rusul gazze da amgvarad igi kidev ufro metad gaaZliera. baqo-Tbilisi-erzrumis Semdeg ki dRis wesrigSi dadga „nabukos“ mSeneblobac (erzrumidan bulgareTze, rumineTze, ungreTsa da avstriaze mimavali gazsadeni), romelic ukve serozul safrTxes uqmnida ruseTis, rogorc evropis gaziT mommarageblis, poziciebs. „nabuko“ am etapze gaCerebulia, swored imis gamo, rom saamisod ruseTma didi odenobiT resursi daxarja (daiwyo misi alternatiuli „samxreT nakadis“ proeqtze muSaoba, Tumca Semdeg es proeqti SeaCera, dainaxa ra, rom „nabuko“ gaiyina).

garda imisa, rom saqarTvelo erTgvarad alternatiul gzas (an gzis nawils) warmoadgens, ruseTs Tundac imis gamo ar awyobs saqarTveloze energo da savaWro marSrutebis ganviTareba, rom amiT saqarTvelo gaZlierdeba. rogorc yvela patara saxelmwifosaTvis, saqarTvelosaTvis sasicocxlod mniSvnelovania sakuTari funqciis povna. savaWro-energetuli derefani ki swored aseTi funqciaa (miT ufro, rom saqarTvelos amis istoriuli gamocdileba aqvs _ daviT aRmaSeneblis periodSi qveynis gaZliereba swored didi abreSumis gzis nawilad qcevam ganapiroba). misi arqonis SemTxvevaSi saqarTvelo dasustdeba da iolad moeqceva yvelaze didi da Zlieri mezoblis (ruseTis) gavlenis qveS.

demokratiis gavrcelebisa da dasavleTis gavlenis gafarToebis faqtori. ruseTisaTvis gacilebiT rTulia zemoqmedebis moxdena demokratiul saxelmwifoebze da,

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aqedan gamomdinare, mas safrTxed miaCnia mis samezobloSi demokratiis gavrceleba. saqarTvelos jerjerobiT gardamavali periodi aqvs da srulfasovan demokratiamde bevri uklia, magram Tundac is faqti, rom saqarTveloSi ukve moxda xelisuflebis demokratiuli gziT Secvla, ruseTisaTvis garkveulwilad problematuria, radgan es niSnavs, rom Tuki ruseTi SeZlebs saqarTveloSi misTvis sasurveli mTavrobis dasmas, es mTavroba SeiZleba xalxma gadairCios. garda amisa, ruseTis dRevandel politikur elitas „narinjisferi revoluciis“ panikuri SiSi aqvs (rac kargad gamoCnda ukrainuli maidnis sapasuxo qmedebebis magaliTze). aseTi procesebis ukan ruseTis politikuri elita, rogorc wesi, amerikis specsamsaxurebis xelsa da revoluciis talRis ruseTze gavrcelebis mcdelobas xedavs. amitomac nebismieri demokratiuli transformacia masSi panikas iwvevs maSinac ki, roca es ruseTidan Soreul regionebSi xseba (magaliTad, „arabuli gazafxuli“ Crdilo afrikaSi).

cxadia, kidev ufro mZimed aRiqvams ruseTi samxreT kavkasiis regionSi natosa da evrokavSiris gafarToebis perspeqtivas. es niSnavs regionis demokratizacias da misi imperiuli ambiciebisaTvis udides dartymas. ruseTis mmarTvelebs miaCniaT, rom Tavis droze maTma qveyanam samxreT kavkasia sakmaod didi msxverplisa da Zalisxmevis fasad iransa da TurqeTs waarTva da amitomac igi mSvidobianad ar unda daTmos. 2008 wlis omi swored imis demonstrireba iyo, rom ruseTi mzadaa regionSi Tavisi poziciebis dasacavad yvelaferze wavides.

saqarTvelosadmi gansakuTrebuli, emociuri damokidebulebis faqtori. saqarTvelos gansakuTrebuli adgili uWiravs ruseTis cnobierebaSi, rac ara mxolod misi geopolitikuri mniSvnelobiTaa ganpirobebuli. qarTvelebi ruseTis politikuri, samxedro da kulturuli elitis nawilad iqcnen da mniSvnelovnad Seuwyves xeli imperiis Camoyalibeba-gaZlierebas. general bagrationis, menSeviki CxeiZisa da wereTlis, bolSeviki stalinisa da orjonikiZis, reJisor danelias magaliTebze rom araferi ar vTqvaT,

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TbilisSi gaizarda araerTi gamoCenili rusi saxelmwifo moRvawe (magaliTad, primakovi). arc is unda daviviwyoT, rom saqarTvelo me-19 saukunidan moyolebuli ruseTis kulturuli da politikuri elitis sayvareli dasasvenebeli adgili iyo.

garda amisa, ruseTSi gavrcelebulia miTi, rom qarTveli eri daRupvasa da gamusulmanebas ruseTma gadaarCina da rom Tavis droze saqarTvelom ruseTs Tavad mimarTa Svelis saTxovnelad. ar Rirs SeCereba imaze, Tu ramdeni simarTlea am miTSi. mTavari isaa, rom am miTis ruseTSi mtkiced sjeraT da aqedan gamomdinare, saqarTvelos mxridan damoukidebeli politikis gatarebis da, miT umetes, dasavleTTan daaxloebis survili ruseTSi umadurobad aRiqmeba da „Ralatis“ kvalifikacia eZleva. roca „Ralati“ modis erTmorwmune erisgan, romelic odesRac ase dauaxlovda imperias da romelic imperiam „gadaarCina daRupvas“, reaqcia gacilebiT ufro mZimea, vidre wesiT unda iyos. ruseTis mxridan saqarTvelosadmi gansakuTrebulad mtruli damokidebuleba 90-iani wlebidan moyolebuli, albaT, sxva yvelaferTan erTad, amiTac aixsneba. saqarTvelos swrafvam damoukideblobisaken (romelic 80-iani wlebis bolos gamovlinda) da saqarTvelos daaxloebam dasavleTTan (romelic 90-ianebis bolos daiwyo) ruseTi gacilebiT ufro metad gaaRiziana, vidre analogiurma procesebma baltiispireTis saxelmwifoebSi. saqarTvelo aRiqmeba, rogorc Semcdari da umaduri Svili, romelic unda daisajos da sasjeli unda miiRos, rogorc sruliad damsaxurebuli da kanonieri.

ruseTis damokidebuleba saqarTvelos mimarT _dRevandeli mdgomareoba

iseve, rogorc albaT yvela imperias, ruseTsac uWirs Tavisi yofili koloniebis srulfasovan saxelmwifoebad aRqma. kremlTan gansakuTrebulad daaxloebuli instituti, saxelwodebiT ruseTis strategiuli kvlevebis centri, daufaravad acxadebs, rom yofil sabWoTa respublikebs ruseTi araviTar SemTxvevaSi ar unda moeqces, rogorc saerTaSoriso samarTlis subieqtebs. es imas niSnavs, rom

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ruseTi yofil koloniebs damoukidebel saxelmwifoebad araTu ver aRiqvams, aramed arc unda, rom isini damoukidebel saxelmwifoebad Camoyalibdnen da amitom maT Sesabamisadac eqceva. cxadia, gamonaklisi am mxriv arc saqarTveloa. ufro metic, saqarTvelosadmi damokidebulebas Tavis damatebiT daRs asvams Cveni qveynis axlo urTierTobebi amerikasTan. ruseTi saerTod amerikis rolsa da gavlenas gadaWarbebulad afasebs da yvelgan amerikis xels xedavs. Sesabamisad, igi gadaWarbebulad afasebs amerikis gavlenas saqarTveloze. es, cxadia, damatebiTi gamaRizianeblis rols TamaSobs ormxriv urTierTobebSi: ruseTis gadmosaxedidan amerikam xelovnurad Seqmna saqarTveloSi saxelmwifo institutebi da armia, daaviwya qarTvelebs rusuli ena da saerTodac, saqarTvelo ruseTs gadaamtera. prodasavluri kursis momxre yvela politikuri Zala Tu adamiani saqarTveloSi „amerikul proeqtadaa“ miCneuli. es swored amerika da amerikis agentebi miaTreven saqarTvelos natoSi, Torem qarTvelebs msgavsi ram TavSi ar mouvidodaT.

natos Tema rom ase Tu ise amovwuroT, aqve isic unda vTqvaT, rom ruseTSi miiCneven, rom nato saqarTvelosaTvis erTgvari TviTmizania, rom TiTqosda saqarTvelo (ufro sworad ki, amerikelebis mier Seqmnili saqarTvelos politikuri elita) natosken pirvel rigSi ruseTis jibrze miiswrafvis. ruseTSi naklebad aris imis gageba, rom nato saqarTveloSi ganixileba, rogorc usafrTxoebis miRwevis saSualeba da rom saqarTvelos saamisod legitimuri mizezebi aqvs. es gageba ar arsebobs, radgan radgan, magaliTad, ruseTis mosaxleobis didma nawilma ar icis, rom ruseTi praqtikulad Riad exmareboda afxaz separatistebs omis dros, xolo vinc icis, maTi umravlesoba amas amarTlebs, radgan afxazeTis saqarTvelos SemadgenlobaSi yofnas stalinis gadawyvetilebiT xsnis, romelmac afxazeTi „Tavis samSoblos aCuqa.“ 2008 wlis omSi damnaSaved mTlianad saqarTvelo da maSindeli qarTuli elita cxaddeba, romelic (isev da isev) „amerikelebma waaqezes“.

afxazeTisadmi es damokidebuleba gamonakliss ar warmoadgens _ erTiani saqarTvelo ruseTis politikuri elitisa da mosaxleobis didi nawilisaTvis xelovnurad

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Seqmnili fenomenia. maTi azriT, am fenomenis SeqmnaSi didi roli Tavis droze swored ruseTma iTamaSa. ruseTma saqarTvelo nawil-nawil gamoixsna muslimi dampyroblebisgan da Semdeg Tavisi frTis qveS gaaerTiana. Tu ra adgili uWiravs ruseTis istoriul mexsierebaSi saqarTvelos „muslimi dampyroblebisgan gamoxsnisa da gadarCenis“ narativs, amaze zemoT ukve visaubreT.

sadReisod saqarTvelos mimarT interesi ruseTSi SedarebiT minavlulia. saqarTvelos aRar uWiravs iseTi adgili rusul mediaSi, rogoric saakaSvilis mmarTvelobis periodSi da, rac kidev ufro mniSvnelovania, aRar mimdinareobs saqarTvelos mizanmimarTuli demonizacia rusul mediaSi, romlis gamoisobiTac erTi periodi saqarTvelo ruseTis erT-erT upirveles mtrad saxeldeboda. Tumca, uaxlesma istoriam daadastura, rom, saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi, ruseTis xelisuflebas SeuZlia propagandistuli manqanis swrafad gadaprogrameba da nebismieri saxelmwifos demonizacia, rac, sxva yvelaferTan erTad, SesaZloa, miznad isaxavdes am saxelmwifos winaaRmdeg agresiis gansaxorcieleblad sazogadoebrivi azris Semzadebas. ase rom, dRevandeli urTierTobaTa erTgvari daTboba arc ise bevrs niSnavs. Tuki saWirod CaTvlis, moskovi swrafad moaxdens saqarTvelos xelaxal demonizacias yvela aqedan gamomdinare SesaZlo SedegebiT.

es miT ufro, rom ruseTi aramcTu aRar malavs Tavis agresiul ganwyobas dasavleTis mimarT, aramed Zalis demonstrirebis gziT cdilobs daafrTxos dasavleTica da yofili koloniebic (maT Soris, cxadia, saqarTveloc). es ukve kargad aisaxeba ruseTis oficialur dokumentebSic (samxedro doqtrinebi, erovnuli usafrTxoebis strategia). ukve 2000 wlis samxedro doqtrinaSi iyo laparaki, rom ruseTis farglebs gareT mcxovrebi ruseTis moqalaqeebis uflebebisa da legitimuri interesebis SezRudva safrTxes warmoadgenda da saWiro iyo maTi dacva. Tuki gavixsenebT, rom swored maSin daiwyo rusuli pasportebis gacema afxazeTsa da cxinvalis regionSi, gasagebi gaxdeba upirvelesad vin igulisxmeboda ruseTis farglebs gareT mcxovreb mis

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moqalaqeebSi. 2008 wlis omis Semdeg 2010 wlis doqtrinaSi toni gamkacrebulia da cxaddeba, rom ruseTis farglebs gareT mcxovrebi ruseTis moqalaqeebis dacva moxdeba SeiaraRebuli Zalebis meSveobiT. igive meordeba 2014 wlis doqtrinaSi.

2010 wlis doqtrinaSi ukve safrTxed cxaddeba natos infrastruqturis miaxloeba ruseTis sazRvrebTan (maT Soris, natos gafarToebis gziT). 2014 wlis doqtrinaSi natosTan mimarTebaSi daaxloebiT igive meordeba da aseve Cndeba afxazeTi da samxreT oseTi, romlebTan TanamSromloba erTiani Tavdacvisa da usafrTxoebis gansamtkiceblad erT-erT ZiriTad prioritetad cxaddeba.

afxazeTi da samxreT oseTi 2016 wels gamoqveynebul erovnuli usafrTxoebis strategiaSi damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa Tanamegobrobis wevri saxelmwifoebis gverdiT saxeldeba, rogorc sagareo politikis prioriteti. natos gafarToeba isev safrTxed cxaddeba.

amave dokumentSi ikveTeba saintereso momenti, romelic xazs usvams Tanamedrove ruseTis dasavleTTan dapirispirebas ara mxolod geopolitikur, aramed aseve ideologiur da sainformacio frontze. „mimdinareobs ruseTis tradiciuli sulier-zneobrivi faseulobebis aRorZineba... midis konsolidacia iseTi faseulobebis garSemo, rogoricaa ruseTis Tavisufleba da damoukidebloba, humanizmi, erTaSorisi mSvidoba da Tanxmoba, ruseTis federaciis mravalerovani kulturis erToba, ojaxuri da aRmsarebluri tradiciebis pativiscema, patriotizmi“, _ naTqvamia strategiaSi. arsadaa naxsenebi demokratia da adamianis uflebebi.

daskvnis magier

ruseTi saqarTvelos aRiqvams ara mxolod rogorc Tavisi legitimuri gavlenis sferos nawils, aramed rogorc geopolitikurad umniSvnelovanes mxares, romlis kontrolic (an, sul mcire, masze dasavleTis gavlenis ardaSveba) sruliad aucilebelia.

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ruseTisaTvis saqarTvelos saxelmwifoebrioba erTgvari gaugebrobaa da, aqedan gamomdinare, misTvis aseve gaugebaria usafrTxoebis is legitimuri interesebi, romlebic saqarTvelos SeiZleba hqondes. saqarTvelos interesebi da miswrafebebi ruseTSi sakmaod damaxinjebulad da araadekvaturad aRiqmeba da mis ukan, rogorc wesi, xedaven xolme ruseTis mowinaaRmdegeebis (upirvelesad aSS-is) xelsa da xrikebs.

gazviadebulia ra amerikis gavlena saqarTveloze da gazviadebulia ra ruseTis damsaxureba saqarTvelos gadarCena-gaZlierebis saqmeSi (da aseve, albaT, saqarTvelos roli ruseTis imperiis usafrTxoebaSi), ruseTis gamorCeulad agresiuli damokidebuleba saqarTvelos saxelmwifos mimarT aranairad gasakviri ar unda iyos.

ruseTis mxridan damokidebulebis TvalsazrisiT saqarTvelosaTvis umTavres problemas albaT is warmoadgens, rom ruseTis politikuri elitisa da mosaxleobis didi nawilis cnobierebaSi misi saxelmwifoebrioba aralegitimuria da rom maTi gadasaxedidan saqarTvelo, wesiT, ruseTis imperiis nawili an, sul mcire, misi gavlenis sferos nawili unda iyos.

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