evento sul project risk management - gruppoeureka.it - evento luiss... · luiss guido carli - aula...

1

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

No Risk, No Gain

Evento sul Project Risk Management

Venerdì, 21 marzo 2014 - ore 15.00LUISS Guido Carli - Aula Polivalente

Viale Romania, 32 - Roma

LUISS Business School – Area Management e innovazionne

Organizzato con Eureka Service

www.gruppoeureka.itThe PMI Registered Educati on Provider logo is aregistered mar k of the Projec t Management Ins titute,

Inc.

Sponsor dell’evento

2

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

21 Marzo 2014

Managing Risks in Complex Business/ProjectsProject Risk Management in

Land & Naval Systems Division

Organizzato con Eureka Service

www.gruppoeureka.itThe PMI Registered Educati on Provider logo is aregistered mar k of the Projec t Management Ins titute,

Inc.

Sponsor dell’evento

LUISS Business School – Area Management e innovazionne

Sante TorinoL&NSD - Head of Risk Management Major Programmes

3

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

dSUMMARY

The Selex ES Business -


project’s characteristics

Complex Projects:

a challenging & risky environment

Risk Management in L&NS Division

4

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

PL

AT

FO

RM

SSensorsEquipments

Connectivity and IT Infrastructures and Equipments

ICT Services

Command and Control

Program & Project

ManagementC

4IS

TA

R *

* Command & Control, Communications, Computing, Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, Reconnaissance

END USER

Prime Contractor

Pre

se

nc

e a

cro

ss

wh

ole

va

lue

ch

ain

Business Model for the Supply ofDefense Systems and Solutions

Systems of SystemsArchitect and Integrator

5

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

Scalability

Modularity

Interoperability

Deployability

Supportability

Real-time

Connectivity

growing Project COMPLEXITY

NCW PROJECTS

Point Defence

& Security

Command

& Control

Systems

C2

Radar & EO

Sensors

The L&NS Division Business

Surveillance Systems

Radar

C4I Systems Communication

Systems

Radar

ICT

Area Defence &

Security Systems

CSI

ITC

Net

6

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

dSUMMARY




Complex Projects:



7

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

The evolution of Business Domainleads to a demanding environment

Evolution of the Market/Customer requirements:

• fluid requirements and expectations

• integrated solutions delivery

• large number of stakeholders

• prime-contract approach

• limited budget

Evolution of Company Industrial leverages for value chain management:

• partnership and commercial

• system architecture and integration

• technology and products

• project management

• legal and contractual

• financial

TECHNICALcomplexity

MANAGEMENTcomplexity

Growing complexity and risks

8

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

Product Life Cycle

Upgradingand/or Withdrawal

ProductionQualificationDevelopmentMarketing & Feasibility

Support & Services

ProductionDesign &

DevelopmentBid Prep. and Negotiation

Marketing Support & Services

ProductionDesign &


Marketing

Project Life Cycle

Support & Services

ProductionDesign &


Marketing

Risks Assessment

over lifecycle,

starting from the

Bid phase,

taking into account

the “V” process

Risks Assessment

over lifecycle,

starting from the

Bid phase,

taking into account

the “V” process

051 021

F R EM M - C M S

RI SK FALL BACK PLAN REPORT( PIANO DI RECUPERO SUI RI SCHI DI PROGET T O)

PROJECT : 051 021

PR O JE CT : CO R : T. ST Y LE SIP T L ea de r/ PM :

R ISK ACTI ON REPORT

(RAPPORT O DI INT ERVENT O SUI RISCHI DI PROGET TO)

FR E MM - CM S

Risk RegisterRisk Register

Multiple levels of

responsibility

involved

Multiple levels of

responsibility

involved

Multiple “gates”

to be achieved

whilst minimising

the domino effect

of risk impact

Multiple “gates”

to be achieved

whilst minimising

the domino effect

of risk impact

Technical Risks arise along the project/product lifecycle

TECHNICALcomplexity

9

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

Product Life Cycle

Upgrading

and/or WithdrawalProductionQualificationDevelopment

Marketing &

Feasibility

Support & Services

ProductionDesign &


Marketing Support & Services

ProductionDesign &


Marketing

Project Life Cycle

Support &

ServicesProduction

Design &

Development

Bid Prep. and

Negotiation Marketing

051 021

F RE M M - C M S

RISK FALL BACK PLAN REPORT(PIANO DI RECUPERO SUI RISCHI DI PROGET T O)

PROJECT : 051 021

PR OJ EC T : CO R : T . S TY L ESI PT Le ad er /P M :

RISK ACTION REPORT

( RAPPORT O DI INT ERVENTO SUI RISCHI DI PROGET T O)

FR EM M - CM S

Risk Register

TECHNICALcomplexity …enhances

in Large Systems

environment

The technical environment of a System of Systems project

10

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

The management environment of aSystem of Systems project

CUSTOMERContractual, Technical,

Operational Dpts, Quality, …….

PARTNERSand

SUBCONTRACTORS

PRIMECONTRACTOR

Robust Project & Risk Management approach needed

Large number of stakeholders

Large number of resources (in house

and outside)

Delivery of technical and

financial

performances

Limited budget (Cost&Time)


11

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

dSUMMARY




Complex Projects:



12

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

Coping with Risk Complexity

Risk Management Organisation

Mature Process and Methodology

Individual approach

Risk Manager

role Integrated supporting tools

TECHNICALcomplexity


Integrated Project Team(IPT)

13

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

dRisk Management

Organisation

Project Risk Management• Project/Product Risks throughout LifeCycle

• Risk Analysis & Reporting

Risk ManagementMajor Programmes

Department

Linesof

Business

Staff & Support

Departments

CentralOperationalDepartments

IPTs environment

Risk

Manage

r

role

Risk Manager

role

Risk Manage ment Organisation

Top Management

L&NS Division Management

Risk Office• Process and Methodology

• Cross Projects Risk Analysis

14

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

• At WBE level: focus on Risks and Actions

• At Project level: overall Risk trend

• In order to respect the budget (in terms of costs and milestones date)

Overall Risk Managementapproach

Inside the IPTs:Project Risk Management

At Division level:Risk DataBase

Analysis and Reporting

At Division/Top Management level:Contingency Management

05 102 1

RISK F AL L BACK PL AN REPORT( PI A NO DI R E C UP E R O S U I R IS C H I D I P R OGE T T O)

0 5102 1

( K€) (K €) (K€ )

1 1 27 -lug -06 PR OP OS TO 6.3 3 6 01 /02/ 08 H AT FO C A SW 30 /04 /12 30/0 4/1 2 Y ES

2 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.3 3 6 02 /01/ 07 C DR 28 /02 /08 28/0 2/0 8 Y ES

3 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.3 2 4 01 /09/ 10 F AT FO S G P# 5 30 /09 /20 30/0 9/2 0

4 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.3 2 6 30 /04/ 07 F AT FO C A SW 30 /04 /12 30/0 4/1 2 Y ES

5 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 5.2 2 4 28 /02/ 08 F AT FO C A SW 30 /04 /12 30/0 4/1 2 Y ES

6 1 13 -se t-06 PR OP OS TO 5.3 2 6 01 /06/ 09

R ilas cio Re leas e

31 /07 /10 31/0 7/1 0 Y ES

7 1 13 -se t-06 PR OP OS TO 5 2 4 01 /02/ 08

8 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 5.1 1 2 01 /05/ 10

9 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.2 2 4 01 /03/ 09 F AT FO S G P# 5 30 /09 /20 30/0 9/2 0

1 0 1 13 -se t-06 PR OP OS TO 5.2 2 4 01 /02/ 08 H AT FO C A SW 15 /12 /11 15/1 2/1 1

1 1 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.1 1 2 01 /03/ 09

1 2 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.4 2 4 01 /03/ 09 01 /01 /10 01/0 1/1 0

1 3 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.1 2 4 01 /10/ 09 H AT FO C A SW 30 /04 /12 30/0 4/1 2

1 4 1 15 -se t-06 PR OP OS TO 5 1 2 01 /02/ 09

1 5 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.1 2 4 01 /02/ 08

1 6 1 15 -se t-06 PR OP OS TO 5.3 1 2 30 /09/ 06 15 /12 /10 15/1 2/1 0

1 8 1 20 -ge n-0 6 PR OP OS TO 6.1 2 4 03 /08/ 06

P rim a F AT SW

01 /11 /09 01/1 1/0 9 Y ES

Ext ra c osti pe r la defi nizi one , qu alif ica e pr odu zio ne

del la M ulti Fun ctio na l Co nso le V. Ma nde se

Mo dific he al C MS a s egu ito dell 'acc etta zio ne d ella

doc um enta zio ne di p roge tto e d ella Va luta zion e V. Ma nde se

Nec ess ità di u n a ggio rna me nto Tec nol ogic o V. Ma nde se

Rio rga nizz azio ne del la s ocie tà D AT AM AT R. Ve rone si

Pro lun gam ent o a ttivit à a bor do R. Ve rone si

Ma nca nza di r isor se chia ve o co n s kill ade gua ti p er le

fas i di imp osta zio ne d el p rog etto A. Ne ri

Ri sk T itle R isk Ow ne r

Imp atti da ma nca to c ons olid ame nto Ho rizo n/N UM A Ner i

(R A PP O RT O D I V A LU TA Z IO NE D E I R IS CH I DI PR O G ET TO )R IS K A SS E SS ME NT R E P OR T

Rila vor azio ne del SW pe r ag gio rna men to d ella A. Ne ri

Rila vor azio ni/m od ifich e a lla funz ion alità (A SW ) An ti-

Sub sur fac e W arfa re di n uov a re aliz zaz ione A. Ne ri

Ral lent am ento de i flu ssi info rma tivi dur ant e la fas e di

pro gett o e rea lizz azio ne del sist ema do vut o al la R. Ve rone si

Mi lest one

Af fect ed by t he A ctio n P lan

Pre dic ted

Sta rt D ate

Ri sk

Fac tor

R isk Va lue P rob a-

bility

Ris k

Are aRis k ID Da te

Issu e

no . St atus

05 102 1

RISK ACT ION REPORT(R A PP OR TO DI IN T E RV E N TO SU I R IS C HI D I P R OGET T O)

Risk Manager

1.1 .1 1. 1.2 1 .1.3

1. 1

1.2 .1 1. 2.2 1 .2.3 1.2 .4

1.2

1. 3.1 1 .3.2

1.3

1

1. 1

1. 2

1. 3

1.3.1

1.3.2

1. 1

1. 2

1. 3

1.3.1

1.3.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

6 9.5 13 16.5 20

RiskRiskRiskRiskRegister

Register

Register

Register

Archive

Archive

Archive

Archive

RiskRiskRiskRiskRegister

Register

Register

Register

Archive

Archive

Archive

Archive

Contingencies are allocated andhandled centrally by the Division/Top

Management, on the basis of theproject’s overall risk trend

• Provide different views on a project’s risk profile

• Find commonalities among business areas, products, project classes (cross risks), impacting on groups of projects, to define cross actions

Risk Register

• Collect and track risks history

• Share information at LoB and Division level• Make possible risk data re-use

IPT

Risk

Manage

r

role

Risk

M anager

roleMature Process

and Methodol ogy

15

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

Risk

Risk

Risk

Risk

Planned Route(Time, Cost, Performance)

ActualRoute

The Risk Manager acts as a ”Navigator”, supporting the Project Manager (”Skipper”) and the Team to maintain the project route

• Sensor of initial signs of potential project failure , starting from bid phase

• Anticipation and simulation of possible

future risk scenarios

• Timely Action Plan definition (based on

experience and historical data analysis)

Individual approach:Risk Manager Role in the IPT

T0

Risk Manage

r

role

Risk

Manag errole

Individual approach

16

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

• Systemic vision, continuously adapting viewpoints during the life of the project

• Simulation of possible future risk scenarios in

the short term (Tactical view) and medium-

long term (Strategic view)

• Maintain very short term Action Plans as drivers for project redefinition and change

Planned Route(Time, Cost, Performance)

ActualRoute

Risk

Risk

Risk

Risk

In agile environments, the Risk Manager acts as an ”Explorer”,supporting the Project Manager and the Team to imagine the project route

Individual approach:Risk Manager Role in the IPT

T0

Risk Manage

r

role

Risk

Manag errole

Individual approach

17

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

™

Max 1 ,1

Min 0 ,0

0

0 ,2

0 ,4

0 ,6

0 ,8

1

0 0 ,5 1 1 ,5 2Va lue s in M€

ContingencyBasel ine ‘09Basel ine ‘09 May ‘09May ‘09 September ‘09September ‘09

Cos ts in M€

Pro

bab

ility

Risk Register / RBS0 5102 1R IS K FA LL B A CK P L AN R E PO R T

( PIA N O DI RE C UP ER O SU I RIS C HI DI P RO G ET TO )

0510 21

(K €) (K€ ) (K€ )

1 1 27-lu g-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 3 6 01 /02/ 08

2 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 3 6 02 /01/ 07 CD R 28 /02/0 8 2 8/02 /08 YE S

3 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 2 4 01 /09/ 10

4 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 2 6 30 /04/ 07

5 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 5 .2 2 4 28 /02/ 08 FA T FO C AS W 30 /04/1 2 3 0/04 /12 YE S

6 1 13-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 .3 2 6 01 /06/ 09

Ril ascio Rel ease

31 /07/1 0 3 1/07 /10 YE S

7 1 13-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 2 4 01 /02/ 08

8 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 5 .1 1 2 01 /05/ 10

9 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .2 2 4 01 /03/ 09

10 1 13-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 .2 2 4 01 /02/ 08

11 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .1 1 2 01 /03/ 09

12 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .4 2 4 01 /03/ 09

Pri ma F AT H W

01 /01/1 0 0 1/01 /10

13 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .1 2 4 01 /10/ 09 HA T FO C A SW 30 /04/1 2 3 0/04 /12

14 1 15-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 1 2 01 /02/ 09

15 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .1 2 4 01 /02/ 08

16 1 15-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 .3 1 2 30 /09/ 06

Ins tallaz ione FOC

15 /12/1 0 1 5/12 /10

18 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .1 2 4 03 /08/ 06 Pri ma F AT S W 01 /11/0 9 0 1/11 /09 YE Sv. Man dese

Risc hio d i riva lsa e cono mica da p arte di O SN s u

Poss ibile sotto stim a de lle fu nzion alità nuo ve C MS

Mod ifiche al C MS a seg uito dell'a ccet tazio ne d ella docu men tazio ne d i prog etto e de lla V aluta zion e

Ope rativa da p arte del Clien te (M MI)

V . Man des e

Riorg aniz zazio ne d ella socie tà D ATA MAT R . Ver ones i

Man canz a di r isors e ch iave o con skil l ade guat i per le A . Ner i

R isk T itle Risk Own er

(R A PPO R TO DI VA LU TA ZIO NE D EI R IS CH I D I PR O GE TTO )RIS K AS SE SS M EN T R E PO RT

Rilav oraz ione del S W p er ag gior name nto della A . Ner i

Rilav oraz ioni/m odi fiche alla funzi onal ità (A SW) Anti -

Ralle ntam ento dei fluss i info rmat ivi du rant e la f ase di

prog etto e rea lizza zione del siste ma d ovut o all a R . Ver ones i

Mi lesto ne

A ffec ted b y theR isk Occu rring A ction Plan

Pr edic ted

St art D ate Pla nne d R evis ed

Risk

F acto r

Risk Valu eP roba -

bility

R isk

A reaR isk ID Da te

Issu e

no. S tatus

0 5102 1

R ISK A C TI ON R E PO R T( RA P PO RT O DI IN TE R VE NT O SU I R IS CH I DI PR O GE TT O )

1. 1. 1 1.1 .2 1. 1. 3

1. 1

1. 2. 1 1 .2 .2 1. 2. 3 1 .2 .4

1. 2

1. 3. 1 1. 3. 2

1 .3

1

I D De s c ri zi oneRi sk

O wne rg en feb m ar ap r m ag gi u l ug ag o s et ot t n ov di c m a r gi u s et d ic ma r g iu se t dic

�

1Ne ce s s ità d i va r ia n ti al l'a r ch it et tu ra , a g li s vi lu pp i e a lla do c u men t az io n e p e r

a de r ire ai n u ov i st a nd a rd d i c on f or mit à p re vi st i pe r la s a fe ty .FE R R AN T E

P IN O - B UA T6%

A n a lis i p re lim in ar e d ei r eq u is it i V 2 p e r co mp r en d e re g li i mp at ti re la ti vi a ll' a de g u am en to ag li s ta n d ar d

R i ch ie d e re a l cl ie n te il r ic on o s ci me nt o d ei c os t i a g g iu nt iv i p e r a tt e ne r si a i n u o vi s ta n da r d

FE R RA N T E PI NO - BU A T


5O n e ri ag g iu n tiv i re la t iv i a ll 'in te g ra z io n e e te s tin g a ca u sa de ll 'in n o va z io n e

te c n ol og ic a d e lla su b fo rn i tu ra ( D at a D is tr ib u tio n S y s te m)

MA RE S C A GI US E P PE -

I NG E5%

U t ili zz o d i moc k -u p e s im ul at o ri in mo d o li mita r e i ris c hi

r e la tiv i al l' in te g ra z io ne co n c o mp on e n ti no n n o ti (e s : D D S )

MA R E SC A

G IU SE P PE - IN G E

8 O n e ri ag g iu n tiv i p er r ila v o ra zi o ni d e l S W

MA RE S C A

GI US E P PE - I NG E

6%R a ff o rz am en t o de l la s up e rv is io n e d i B U SC re la ti va me n te a l le a tt iv ità in c a ric o a d In g e g ne r ia


1 0P ro lu n g am en to de ll e a tti vi tà d i a na li si d e i r e qu is it i e sv il up p o a c a us a r is o rs e

n on ad d e st ra te su ff ic ie n te me nt e s ul p ro g e tto

PA P AL E S A LV A TO R E -

B U AT

9%E f fe ttu a re tra i ni ng di u lte r io ri ri so r se i n mo d o d a ev it a re

p r ob le mi le g a ti al t ur n o ve r o o v er la p pi ng de ll e a tti vi tà

P A PA L E SA L VA T O RE -

BU A T

�

9In e ff ic en z e le g a te a ll a pa r al le liz z a zi on e d e lle at tiv it à s u V 1 e V 2 , d if fi ci le

re p e rim en t o di r is or s e su V 2


B U AT

6%T r ai ni ng pr e ve n ti vo s u r is or s e d i i ng e g ne r ia d a a dd e s tr ar e s u lle at tiv it à d i V 2 , in mo d o d a e vi ta re cr iti ci tà n e lla

p a ra ll el iz za z io n e d i V 1 e V2

MA R E SC A G IU SE P PE - IN G E

�

4P ro lu n g am en to de ll e a tti vi tà d i si n cr on i zz a zi on e d e li ve ra b le s n e lle f a si d i

in te g ra z io n e in te rm ed ie


B U AT

1 1%

U t ili zz a re l e le s so n s le a rn t de l p re c ed e n te c o nt ra tt o C O F L IG H T V1 pe r d e te rmi na r e le r eg o le d i 'c o nc u rr e nt

w o rk in g ' da ut ili zz a re c o n T h al es pe r C O F L IG H T V 2 ( ma gg io r i

me e ti ng e o cc a si on i d i s in c ro n iz za z io n e )

P A PA L E SA L VA T O RE -

BU A T

�

3C ri tic it à n el s o dd is f ac ime n to de i re q ui s iti o pe r at iv i e di p e rfo r ma nc e r ic hi e st i d a l

c lie n te .FE R R AN T E

P IN O - B UA T2 8%

R i ba lt a re a l cl ie nt e i co s ti d a s os te n e rs i pe r a de g u a men t o

r e qu is it i m ag g io re su p p or to d u ra n te l 'o p er at iv it àFE R RA N T E PI NO -

BU A T

2 R e vi si on e d e i re q ui si ti da sv il up p a re c o me li br e rie co mu n i c o n T h al e sMA RE S C A GI US E P PE -

I NG E6% 0

7 O n e ri ag g iu n tiv i d el le a tt iv ità di in te g ra z io n e e v a lid a zi on e f in a leMA RE S C A GI US E P PE -

I NG E8%

A d d es t ra re a lt re r is o rs e in m od o d a g e st ir e si a la p a ra ll el liz z az io n e d e lle a t tiv it à c he i l t u rn o v er d e l p e rs o n al e

i mp eg n a to s u ta li p ro g e tti

MA R E SC A G IU SE P PE - IN G E

1 1 Ma g gi or i co s ti p er a d eg u a me nt o d e i t oo ls ut ili zz a tiFE R R AN T E

P IN O - B UA T 6%C o n d iv id er e c on Th a le s s c el te im pl em en t at iv e e to o ls u ti liz z at i


�

V2 I RR3

FAT I P V4

V2 I BB2 int

Mi le s tone d i Progra mm a

FAT I P V2

V2 I BB2 dev

OLTR

E

201

2

201

3

Az ione Act ion Ow ne r

1211

6

5

1

00

0 ,2

0 ,4

0 ,6

0 ,8

1

1 ,2

M€

D ata ini zio / fi ne: Mar . ’03/ Gen. ‘15 Gar anzia: Apr . ‘16

C osti t ecnici a fi nir e: al 31/12/ 08: 16,9 M€; al 30/ 06/09: 18,5M €

A vanzament o al 30/ 06/09: 4%

R ischi osit àr esidu a

• Max: 2, 1 M €

• Most Li kel y: 1,1 M€

• Cont ingencyr esidue: 0, 8 M €

Hi ghli ght s

E’ auspi cabil e una pi anif icazione int egrat a f ra il BPP

“Nuovi Cent r i” e quel la del progr amm a al fi ne di evi denziar e l e eventual i crit ici tà in tempi ut il i per

impl ement are opport une azi oni di r ecupero.

Miles tone Risk ines s

N

Ml t da c o n se g u ir e

Ml t no n r a gg iu n ta

Ml t ad el ev a ta c r iti ci tà d i sl itt am en t o (> 6 0%)

M lt a me di a c rit ic ità di s lit tame n to ( 40% ÷6 0%)

I n ci de n z a su va r ia zi on e p r of iloN%

M os t L ik el y to ta le

N° Ri sc h i at tiv i

Co n ti ng e n cy

N

Ml t da c o n se g u ir e

Ml t no n r a gg iu n ta

Ml t ad el ev a ta c r iti ci tà d i sl itt am en t o (> 6 0%)

M lt a me di a c rit ic ità di s lit tame n to ( 40% ÷6 0%)

I n ci de n z a su va r ia zi on e p r of iloN%

M os t L ik el y to ta le

N° Ri sc h i at tiv i

Co n ti ng e n cy

Effective supporting tools:

Identification Assessment Mitigation

Review

connectkeep memory

analyze and synthesize

share

59%63%

57%

8%

8%

9%

33%29%

34%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

B aseline '09 May '09 August '09

Risk Assessment

Num

ber

ofO

pen

an

d O

ccu

rre

dR

isks

Risks with “Medium” or “High” Ri sk Factor without actions

Risks with “Low” Risk Fa ctor wi thout action s

%Risks with actions d efin ed

Residual Risk exposure vs Risk Regi ster

9,2 M€ 11,2 M€ 11,2 M€Acti ons neve r

def ine d

Act ions c los ed

wit hres idualRisk expos ure

2 2

3 0

5 2

4 M€ 0,5 M €

36% 5%

Nu

mb

er

of

Ris

Ks

59%63%

57%

8%

8%

9%

33%29%

34%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


Risk Assessment

Num

ber

ofO

pen

an

d O

ccu

rre

dR

isks

59%63%

57%

8%

8%

9%

33%29%

34%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


Risk Assessment

Num

ber

ofO

pen

an

d O

ccu

rre

dR

isks









9,2 M€ 11,2 M€ 11,2 M€Actionsnever

defined

Actionsclosed

withresidualRisk exposure

2 2

3 0

5 2

4 M€ 0,5 M €

36% 5%

Nu

mb

er

of

Ris

Ks

•Technical Process improvement

•Test Bed facilities

•Technical Process improv ement

•Test Bed facilit ies

Custo mer

Management

Suppliers

•Integration

•Specif ic

Contractual

Obligations

•Fast Prototy ping

•Professional

Adv ice

•Product

Investment

Policy

•Integration

•Specific

Contractual

Obligations

•Fast Prototyping

•Professional

Advice

•Product

Investment

Policy

•Partnership

•Back to Back

Solutions

•Local S ourcing

•Partnership

•Back to Back

Solutions

•Local Sourcing

•Specific

Product ion

investments

•Manufacturing

Quality

Improvement

•Specific

Production

investments

•Manuf acturing

Quality

Improvement

Others

En gineering

Production

Technology

•Life Cycle Management

•CMMI


•CMMI

•Specific R&D Investments•Specif ic R&D Investments

•Technical Process improvement

•Test Bed facilities

•Technical Process improv ement

•Test Bed facilit ies

Custo mer

Management

Suppliers

•Integration

•Specif ic

Contractual

Obligations

•Fast Prototy ping

•Professional

Adv ice

•Product

Investment

Policy

•Integration

•Specific

Contractual

Obligations

•Fast Prototyping

•Professional

Advice

•Product

Investment

Policy

•Partnership

•Back to Back

Solutions

•Local S ourcing

•Partnership

•Back to Back

Solutions

•Local Sourcing

•Specific

Product ion

investments

•Manufacturing

Quality

Improvement

•Specific

Production

investments

•Manuf acturing

Quality

Improvement

Others

En gineering

Production

Technology


•CMMI


•CMMI

•Specific R&D Investments•Specif ic R&D Investments

130Integrated

Project Teams

500Users

1600Active

Risks

100 Parameters for

each Risk

Major

Figures 5300Risk

Sheets

Risk M an age

r

role

R isk

Managerrole I ntegrated supporting tools

18

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

0

0 .1

0 .2

0 .3

0 .4

0 .5

0 .6

0 .7

0 .8

0 .9

1

0 1 0 20 3 0 4 0 5 0 60

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

6 9.5 13 16.5 20

Project Risk Profile (Costs):

S Curve on possible additional costs vs.

project estimates to completeMitigation / Recovery Plan to reduce Risks

impact on Project

Project Risk Profile

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

LUISON ERA LDO

- B UAT47 4 3 20 - 40% Med io

SA T A rea

Sh uqrah1 0.11.09 09 .0 1.10

BODIN DE

CHAT E LA RD

ENRICO - B UAT

45 0 3 00 - 80% A ltoS AT a rea

Sh uqrah1 0.11.09 09 .0 1.10

MOLINARI

MA SS IMIL IANO -

COLE

45 0 2 00 - 60% A ltoSA T A rea

Sh uqrah1 0.11.09 09 .0 1.10

BODIN DE CHAT E LA RD

ENRICO - B UAT

50 0 3 00 - 10 0% Med ioS AT A rea K ho r

Umay ra h1 2.04.10 12 .0 5.10

M AIME RI

MA URIZIO -

P ROC

32 0 1 60 - 70% A ltoSA T A rea

Sh uqrah1 0.11.09 09 .0 1.10

Co mmitte d

Co st

Risk Owne r -

B.U. /F un ction Ma x

Co st

Mo st

L ik ely

Cos t

Ris k Va lueRis k

Fac tor

(L eve l )

P rob a-

b il i ty

(%)

M iles ton e

affected by the

Risk Oc currin g

Mi lesto ne Date

P la nn ed Rev is ed

0,3 2

0 ,36

0 ,42

0,43

0,461

2

3

4

5

Risk Register / RBS0 5102 1

R IS K F AL L B AC K P LA N R EP O R T(P IAN O D I R EC U PE R O S U I R IS CH I D I PR O GE TT O )

0510 21

(K €) (K€ ) (K€ )

1 1 27-lu g-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 3 6 01 /02/ 08

2 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 3 6 02 /01/ 07 CD R 28 /02/0 8 2 8/02 /08 YE S

3 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 2 4 01 /09/ 10

4 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .3 2 6 30 /04/ 07

5 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 5 .2 2 4 28 /02/ 08 FA T FO C AS W 30 /04/1 2 3 0/04 /12 YE S

6 1 13-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 .3 2 6 01 /06/ 09

Ril ascio Rel ease

31 /07/1 0 3 1/07 /10 YE S

7 1 13-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 2 4 01 /02/ 08

8 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 5 .1 1 2 01 /05/ 10

9 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .2 2 4 01 /03/ 09

10 1 13-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 .2 2 4 01 /02/ 08

11 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .1 1 2 01 /03/ 09

12 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .4 2 4 01 /03/ 09

Pri ma F AT H W

01 /01/1 0 0 1/01 /10

13 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .1 2 4 01 /10/ 09 HA T FO C A SW 30 /04/1 2 3 0/04 /12

14 1 15-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 1 2 01 /02/ 09

15 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .1 2 4 01 /02/ 08

16 1 15-s et-06 PRO POS TO 5 .3 1 2 30 /09/ 06

Ins tallaz ione FOC

15 /12/1 0 1 5/12 /10

18 1 20-ge n-06 PRO POS TO 6 .1 2 4 03 /08/ 06 Pri ma F AT S W 01 /11/0 9 0 1/11 /09 YE Sv. Man dese

Risc hio d i riva lsa e cono mica da p arte di O SN s u

Poss ibile sotto stim a de lle fu nzion alità nuo ve C MS

Mod ifiche al C MS a seg uito dell'a ccet tazio ne d ella docu men tazio ne d i prog etto e de lla V aluta zion e

Ope rativa da p arte del Clien te (M MI)

V . Man des e

Riorg aniz zazio ne d ella socie tà D ATA MAT R . Ver ones i

Man canz a di r isors e ch iave o con skil l ade guat i per le A . Ner i

R isk T itle Risk Own er

(R A PPO R TO DI VA LU TA ZIO NE D EI R IS CH I D I PR O GE TTO )RIS K AS SE SS M EN T R E PO RT

Rilav oraz ione del S W p er ag gior name nto della A . Ner i

Rilav oraz ioni/m odi fiche alla funzi onal ità (A SW) Anti -

Ralle ntam ento dei fluss i info rmat ivi du rant e la f ase di

prog etto e rea lizza zione del siste ma d ovut o all a R . Ver ones i

Mi lesto ne

A ffec ted b y theR isk Occu rring A ction Plan

Pr edic ted

St art D ate Pla nne d R evis ed

Risk

F acto r

Risk Valu eP roba -

bility

R isk

A reaR isk ID Da te

Issu e

no. S tatus

0 5102 1

R ISK A C TI ON R E PO R T( RA P PO RT O DI IN TE R VE NT O SU I R IS CH I DI PR O GE TT O )

1.1.1 1.1 .2 1.1.3

1.1

1.2.1 1 .2 .2 1.2.3 1 .2 .4

1.2

1.3.1 1.3.2

1 .3

1

1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3

1.1

1.2.1 1.2.2 1.2.3 1.2.4

1.2

1.3.1 1.3.2

1.3

1

Work Breakdown Structure

1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3

1.1

1.2.1 1.2.2 1. 2.3 1. 2. 4

1.2

1. 3. 1 1. 3. 2

1.3

1

Cost Breakdown StructureI D Nom e att iv ità

1 Prog ett o SW C MS l ig ht

2 I nizio cont rat t o

3 Svi l uppo SW

4 SW Specif i cati on Requir em ents

5 Pr eli mi nary D esign Rev iew

6 Svi luppo Vi rt ual M achi ne

7 Svi luppo HM I

8 Svi luppo int er f acce con sist em a

9 Cr it i cal Desig n R eview

10 I nte grazion e

11 I ntegr azione sist em a H W

12 I ntegr azione m oduli SW

13 Fact or y Acceptan ce Test

14 Del i very e In stal l azio ne

15 Del iv ery sit o Cl ient e

16 I nstal lazi one

17 Si te Accept ance Test

18 Gar anzia

19 Fi nal syst em Accept ance

20 End of C ontr act

05/06

29/ 09

23/ 02

05/ 06

23/ 07

15/07

29/ 07

M G L A S O N D G F M A M G L A S O N D G F M A M G L A S O N

Semes tr e 1 , 2008 Seme str e 2, 2008 Sem est re 1, 2009 Sem est re 2, 2009 S emest r e 1, 2010 S emest r e 2, 2010

GANTT / Milestone Plan

Project Risk Analysis(Montecarlo Simulation)

Regression Coefficient on major cost impact

Monitoring Risk Profile throughout project life

Feb- 09 M ar- 09 Apr- 09 M ag- 09 G i u- 09 Lug- 09 Ago- 09

data

Set - 09

Critical Design Review

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

Pro

ba

bil

ity

Project Risk Profile (Schedule):

Actual (no Montecarlo):Risk Profile vs Leading Milestones(Burn-down curve)

To be experimented (Montecarlo analysis):S Curve on Critical / Leading Milestones

Evaluation of Risks Impact vs Milestones(Risk on Milestone Analyzer (RoMA),new algorithm - patent application filed)

Lug-09 Ott-09 Gen-10 Apr-10 Lug-10 Ott-10 Gen-11 Apr-11

data

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

Probability

Site Acceptance

Test

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0,3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0,2 1 0, 20 0 ,40 0,6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0,1 7 0, 16 0 ,32 0,4 5 0 , 5 0 , 2 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0,1 5 0, 14 0 , 2 0,3 1 0, 42 0 ,11 0, 2 0 , 4 0 , 3 0

0, 1 0 , 1 0 ,15 0,2 8 0, 33 0 ,08 0, 14 0, 29 0 ,22 0, 3

RISKS

M I L

E S T O N

E

m

j

Risk M an age

r

role

Risk

Managerrole I ntegrated supporting tools

19

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

Effective Reports for Risk Review:

The Project Risk Dashboard

Project Risk Register Summary

Economic Risk Profile

and Contingency

coverage

Project Top Level

M ilestones(“Way Points”)

Top Five Risks and Mitigation Actions with relevant Progress

Short term

Tactical View

Synthesis

Project Risk Overview

Medium / Long term

Project Risks and Actions Overview

Risks on M ilestones

Traffic Light

20

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

Pro

jec

t R

isk

Va

lue

Total ProjectRisk Value

Schedule Risk Profile

Project Lifecycle and main Milestones

Effective Reports for Risk Review:

The Project Schedule Risk Profile

21

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

Effective Reports for Risk Review:The Project Schedule Risk Profile

22

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

Risk Manager

Tools way ahead:TERRA Module for Risk Sharing

with Partners and Customer

CUSTOMERContractual, Technical,

Operational Dpts, Quality, …….

PARTNERSand

SUBCONTRACTORS

Web access (protected link)

Contract WBSand Milestones

AdaptableRisk Sheet

AdaptableProcess Steps

share ™

23

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

In summary… the Gain !

Management of risks along the whole lifecycle,

(with tactical & strategic view), starting from the

bid phase

Proactive anticipation of possible risks and early

warning of risks impact on project milestones

Effective Action Plans ahead of time and also

shared with Partner/Suppliers and Customer

(joint risk management)

Supporting a distributed Risk Management over

the whole Value Chain

Systemic vision, continuously adapting

viewpoints during the life of the agile projects

Projects Risk Knowledge growth within the

Company (lessons learned reuse)

A proper approach for Risk Managementand in the Risk Manager Role

can make the difference within IPTs, in terms of:

24

© 2

01

3 C

op

yri

gh

t S

ele

xE

S. A

ll ri

gh

ts re

se

rve

d

Selex ES S.p.A.

Via Tiburtina Km 12.400

00131 Roma06 41501

evento sul project risk management - gruppoeureka.it - evento luiss... · luiss guido carli - aula...

Documents