detecon opinion paper think ict 2032! position for ict everywhere

8/8/2019 Detecon Opinion Paper Think ICT 2032! Position for ICT Everywhere

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/detecon-opinion-paper-think-ict-2032-position-for-ict-everywhere 1/29



Think 2032!

Opinion Paper 2 Detecon International GmbH

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary.............................................................................................3 2 Global trends changing the parameters in the ICT markets ..............................5 3 Information technology in the year 2032 ............................................................. 7

3.1 Quantum leaps in performance and user friendliness................................. 7 3.2 Next Generation Networks...........................................................................7 3.3 Next Generation Wireless Communication..................................................8

4 ICT application worlds 2032 .............................................................................. 10 4.1 Automotive.................................................................................................10 4.2 Energy ....................................................................................................... 11 4.3 Home and lifestyle ..................................................................................... 13 4.4 Health Care ...............................................................................................15

5 ICT industry dynamics ....................................................................................... 17 5.1 Trends shaping the information and telecommunications industry..........17 5.2 Structural impacts on the ICT industry.......................................................18

6 ICT market structure 2032.................................................................................22 6.1 Business as a Service ............................................................................... 22 6.2

Consumer ICT mediation...........................................................................23

6.3 Infrastructure as a Service.........................................................................24

7 Outlook: heading into the new world of telcos...................................................26 8 The authors ....................................................................................................... 28 9 The company.....................................................................................................29



Think 2032!


1 Executive Summary

It’s no rocket science to forecast that most of today’s ICT managers - average age 45 – will

be retired or retiring in the year 2032. Nor does it require an especially vivid imagination to

envisage the effects that the retirement of this “baby boom” generation will have on the

economy. But how will information and communications technology (ICT) develop over the

next 20 years? Are developments not much too dynamic and complex to allow any reliable

predictions? And what real significance will the projected developments have on companies

in the market?

We believe that the most important trends are already visible. Their rough outlines are

becoming better defined with each passing year and it is clear that information and

communications technology will play an important role as a key production factor driving

innovation in all areas of life. It will be the backbone of the economy and industry in 2032,

the Internet of things will be reality. Areas of application such as traffic and transport, theenergy sector, home and lifestyle, and healthcare will change radically and then continue to

evolve under the influence of ICT. ICT for everyone, everywhere, in virtually every object –

that will be the outstanding characteristic of the world of tomorrow.

Meanwhile, geographical differences will prevail and the advent of “ICT everywhere” will

develop a strong trend towards Asia. We will not only see huge demand from and in these

regions, but also by 2032 ICT production and innovation will have gone east to a significant

extent.

The information and communications technology industry is itself also developing rapidly:

companies have to compete with (new) providers from other industries, the relationship with

their customers is in transition, and the nature and structure of value creation in the industry

are undergoing abrupt, permanent changes.

Two fundamental disruptions will essentially shape the ICT market of the future. One is the

vertical disintegration of the telecommunications industry, which is breaking apart at the

interface of its two primary value creation stages: infrastructure operation and service

creation. Not only will telecommunications companies be dealing with new competitors who

focus on specific stages of the value chain – they will be forced to untangle their own

businesses. The other major upheaval is the horizontal integration of value creation across

industrial boundaries. The customer services offered by ICT providers are merging with

those of other industries. While wider customer access is a consequence, these customers

will not necessarily stay with the ICT providers.

These two tectonic disruptions will create a new provider landscape in 2032: the future

belongs to the horizontally integrated ICT companies which choose between market and

service oriented or infrastructure-based business models.

Such horizontally integrated ICT companies will be in a position to create value in three

areas, each with their own set of success factors: Business as a Service, Consumer ICT

Mediation, and Infrastructure as a Service.



Think 2032!


The Business as a Service’ (BaaS) area will provide new operating systems to make

business networks smart. ICT will enable cross-industry (e.g. energy and traffic) value

propositions and transform rigid value chains into agile value networks. The players in

this area will have deep industry and processes know-how as well as distinctive system

integration capabilities.

Research and transactions in the Consumer ICT Mediation (CIM) area will change

significantly. Self-learning smart agents empowered by the evolution of artificial

intelligence will be productized according to comprehensive regulatory frameworks,

ensuring a protected private environment. As consumers in the year 2032, we will be

acquainted with our eButler on the net which not only researches data and selects

information for us, but also makes autonomous decisions in predefined domains.

Independence and trustworthiness will be key success factors for CIM providers.

In the area of ‘Infrastructure as a Service’ (IaaS), market players will need to ensure the

seamless convergence of different access and storage types, from broadband to

sensors, or from backbone to data center. As nobody can cope with the investmentneeds of a fully convergent infrastructure, a very strong opportunity for aggregation and

managed services will exist. The advent of 2-3 champions per region will be determined

by the economies of scale of these wholesale business models.

The authors of this opinion paper have designed a framework to help ICT companies and

entrepreneurs in adjacent markets define a long-term strategic perspective. Of course, there

is no “one-size-fits-all” solution, each market participant will face individual market dynamics

and needs for change. Along the lines of the Chinese proverb: “survival is not mandatory,

you do have a choice” we recommend that you “Think 2032! and position for ICT

everywhere”.



Think 2032!


2 Global trends changing the parameters in theICT markets

To understand fundamental developments in the ICT industry a global and long-term viewmust be taken. Out of the plethora of potential future trends, we have selected the ones with

the strongest impact on the ICT industry. These trends follow the law of mutually accelerated

returns, i.e. they not only influence the ICT industry, but at the same time ICT is a driving

force for these developments to materialize.

In our opinion there are six major demographic, technological and economic trends shaping

the ICT market. They are expected to take more than a decade to become universal and

have truly global impact.

1) Population demographics

Over the next 20 years, the majority of the world’s population and the greater part of its

economic strength will become concentrated in the Asian region. By 2032, India and China

are expected to have populations in excess of 1.5 billion.1

Both of these countries will be

among the top three economic powers in terms of gross national product, and China will

even outperform the USA, the second-largest economy, significantly.

Asia will produce a major share of its economic value using ICT. Global ICT innovation will

be driven much more strongly from this region than is now the case.

2) Life expectancy and healthcare

Expenditures for the sick and elderly will rise drastically all around the globe, particularly inthe western hemisphere, owing to high and still rising life expectancy. ICT applications which

improve diagnostic quality, prevention measures, and therapy will be used to counteract the

rise in costs and will bring about substantial increases in efficiency in the healthcare system.

3) Urbanization and smart cities

In 2032, 60% of the world’s population will live in cities. The number of mega-cities with more

than 10 million inhabitants will rise, and the number of people in urban regions will increase

by 40% in comparison with today.2 The ICT infrastructure will be one of the decisive factors

in determining the attractiveness of a city or region. Worldwide more than 250 smart cities

featuring leading edge ICT facilities are already under construction or being planned. Internet

connections using optical fiber to provide transmission speeds in the gigabit range are justas much a part of these developments as the networking of buildings. By 2032, a networked

infrastructure, including the energy utilities, integrated traffic systems, and facility technology

alongside telecommunications, will be in place in many of the more prosperous metropolitan

areas. Urbanization and ICT progress will generate opportunities for new business models,

such as Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). Here ICT will be the link which makes the

complete convergence of the infrastructures possible.

1 UN (2010): World Population Prospects

2 UN (2010): World Urbanization Prospects



Think 2032!


4) Advance of Globalization and Corporate Networking

Tradeflows will become even more global, due to a large extent to the rise in Asia’s

economic power. The current volume of world trade – about US$12.5 trillion3

– will more

than triple by 2032. The international division of labor tasks to maximize efficiency willincrease substantially. Companies will further the flexibility of their organizations, their

processes, and their interaction with partners and suppliers. They will organize research,

production, and sales on an even more global scale to exploit regional differences in costs,

expertise, and market potential to the greatest possible extent. By 2032, this trend will be

mainly driven by ICT-enabled medium-sized businesses rather than the multinational

companies.

5) Fast ICT-based Corporate Processes

The speed of technological development and new business models will put tremendous

pressure on companies to respond quickly. Company processes will continue to beautomated with the aid of ICT as a way to increase flexibility and efficiency – in the

production of goods and services and all along the value chain, including management

tasks. This can already be clearly seen in the logistics industry, which can reap especially

high benefits from (wireless) networking and data processing. Through its role in the

management of logistics chains in real time, fully automated warehouse systems, and

telematics, ICT is already a key production and differentiation factor at virtually every stage

of the value chain in modern logistics. The technologies playing an important role here are

near-field communication, sensor networks, and machine-to-machine communication.

Computer-aided planning systems and the deployment of goods transports are what make

just-in-time production possible. Greater flexibility as well as increased efficiency result from

the improved planning capabilities and management of the entire supply chain.

6) Corporate Collaboration in Smart Business Networks

ICT will pave the way to dynamic, closely networked companies which, in our estimation,

could contribute as much as 30% of economic value added. Members of such “industrial

networks” can establish ad hoc business relationships – and terminate them just as quickly.

The intelligent networking of activities and the ability to manage complex networked systems

will become critical success factors over the next two decades.

We believe that in the coming years there will still be significant potential for innovation,

differentiation, and even cost reduction using information technology and

telecommunications in many areas, such as traffic/mobility/logistics, infrastructure, corporate

organization, environment, medicine/health care, education, and home & lifestyle.

Later in this paper, we will put the spotlight on four application areas: automotive, energy,

home and lifestyle, and healthcare. But first we will begin by outlining the most important ICT

trends, as this will give us a better understanding of the impact of ICT.

3 WTO (2010): Time Series of International Trade.



Think 2032!


3 Information technology in the year 2032

3.1 Quantum leaps in performance and user friendliness

Besides becoming more and more powerful, computers are also becoming smaller and less

costly to manufacture. Improved production processes and new materials in microchip

production allow increasing density of integrated circuits, so-called Systems-on-a-Chip

(SoC). Examples include the integration of CPU and GPU on the PC platform or the

integration of GPS, 3G, Bluetooth, WLAN, memory, mega-pixel cameras, and acceleration

sensors in smartphones. Innovations in the area of new materials (such as micro hydrogen

fuel cells) in combination with intelligent software control systems are solving technical

problems such as power consumption. More and more intelligence can be compressed into

ever smaller chips and, as costs decline, such solutions are becoming standard components

of more and more products. They are embedded in cars and industrial equipment, in power

plants and electric networks, in logistics systems and robots.

The number of circuits which can be placed on a chip, thereby increasing the speed with

which it can perform, doubles every 18 to 24 months. Developments such as three-

dimensional chips, nano technology, superconductors, or quantum computing will do their

part to ensure that Moore’s Law remains valid.

If we are to utilize this increased power effectively, we will have to develop the human-

machine interface. Methods of entering data using voice recognition, control with movements

and gestures, sensors, optical image recognition systems, or the control of systems with

brain waves will be taken for granted just as today the use of mouse and keyboard. Multi-

touch entry such as that with the iPhone will be replaced by controls similar to those in the

Nintendo Wii or Microsoft Kinect. Ease of use in combination with self-learning and intelligent

systems will be a key to the effective exploitation of computer potential.

3.2 Next Generation Networks

Telecommunications networks are the backbone of our modern economy. They are the

global data highways which make the exchange of information possible. Next Generation

Networks (NGN) will unite wireless and wired access technologies and be ubiquitous. Fixed

and wireless networks will have converged long before the year 2032. Where today the last

mile of the fixed networks still uses copper wire, in 2032 fiber to the building (FTTB) and fiber

to the home (FTTH) connections will predominate.

Next Generation Access (NGA) in fixed networks will provide access bandwidths of 10 Gbit/s

within the next ten years and more than 100 Gbit/s in 2032 to the mass market. Compared to

today’s broadband products for consumers, which already offer up to 100 Mbit/s, this

represents an increase by a factor of 100 and 1000 respectively.

Multimedia applications requiring high bit rates such as ultra-high definition 3-D television or

advanced telepresence multi-point conferencing solutions will push demand for access

bandwidths into the gigabit range.

.



Think 2032!


Along with the bandwidth, transport performance parameters such as jitter, packet loss, and

latency will continue to improve and enable the use of new applications which are especially

demanding with respect to the quality of the data transmission. The paradigm shift to cloud

computing and the extremely short latency times which result will particularly benefit services

such as software as a service or video-based collaboration applications for which real time isa critical factor.

3.3 Next Generation Wireless Communication

The ratio between mobile and fixed network connections worldwide today is about four to

one.4

Being connected at any time, anywhere, is a characteristic differentiation feature of

mobile access technologies. Cellular mobile communications systems such as GSM have

led to more than four billion people, about 60% of the world’s population, having access to

telecommunications networks and to services such as voice telephony. In ten years there will

be an estimated six billion users of mobile communications systems.

The Internet of things will become a major driver of mobile networking because of machine-

to-machine communication. This is why the number of mobile connections will, according to

Ericsson CEO Hans Vestberg, rise to more than 50 billion.5

Over the next two decades,

mobile broadband connections will develop worldwide into the primary means of access to

the Internet.

Mobile systems of the 3rd generation (UMTS HSPA, WiMAX Release I) already achieve a

theoretical bandwidth of several MHz per user. Systems of the fourth generation (UMTS

HSPA+, WiMAX Release II, LTE, LTE Advanced) will improve significantly on this

performance. The utilization of modern technologies at the air interfaces, such as adaptive

modulation and coding, multiple carrier systems, MIMO, and AAS, make this enhancement

possible. However, they also raise the level of complexity in the systems, leading to gradualbandwidth evolution. The theoretical maximum for mobile systems of the fourth generation

is, at 300 Mbit/s, far above the data transmission rates of today’s DSL and coaxial cable

systems. But there are physical limits which cannot be overcome. The radio frequency

spectrum6

is and remains a limited resource, and users must share its physical bandwidth.

So there is an inescapable ceiling for wireless data transmission bandwidths which is

significantly lower than that of wired communications systems.

Wireless access technology to the network will gain an increasing share over the last mile,

and in many parts of the world it will in the future remain the sole means of network access.

However, the growing capabilities of wireless communications systems do not by any means

represent a threat to the fixed network.

4 ITU – Measuring the Information Society 2009

5“We can see some 50 billion connections in 2020,” he said, “with many of these being machine to machine

links.” http://www.telecomseurope.net/content/ericsson-forecasts-50b-mobile-connections-2020

6 Radio waves in the frequency range between a few kilohertz and about 3 gigahertz are considered suitable for

mobile communications.



Think 2032!


Indeed, the two systems complement each other: a modern cellular-based mobile broadband

network relies heavily on a fixed network infrastructure for aggregation and transport. So the

two networks will continue to supplement one another to a large extent.

Alongside mobile wide area networks (WAN), wireless local area networks (WLAN), short-

range wireless networks (also known as wireless personal access networks (WPAN)), and

ultra-short-range technologies will play a decisive role in providing the complete networking

needed for the so-called Internet of things. WLAN technology based on the standard IEEE

802.11 is a powerful technology for the deployment of local wireless networks, e.g. for

wireless Internet access at selected locations (so-called hot spots) or for home networking of

entertainment electronics such as game consoles, notebooks and tablets. WLANs are in

common use in both private and business sectors today. The latest WLAN generation offers

gross bit rates of up to 600 Mbit/s and is approaching regions which were previously only

possible for LANs.

WPANs are characterized by a number of diverse technologies and standards. A suitabletechnical standard can be found for every area of application, whether optical wireless or

radio-based data transmission with a point-to-point or point-to-multipoint connection.

Bluetooth is undoubtedly the best-known WPAN standard. WPANs will play a decisive role in

the future because they can be used universally for the creation of ad hoc connections

between devices and enable the exchange of data with setup requiring minimum effort.

Applications familiar from everyday life include the linking of the cell phone to the hands-free

kit in the car or wristwatch, the wireless connection of headphones to a stereo, and the

wireless mouse and keyboard for the PC.

In 20 years, the majority of devices will be connected to one another using WPAN

technology. There will no longer be any need to battle with cables when hooking up thecomputer or the home cinema. One technical innovation in this area can be seen in optical

transmission technologies based on LED, known as “optical wireless” or “smart lighting”. It

will not be long before conventional light sources such as the pulses of LEDs can be used for

data transmission.

The complete networking of the physical world which will turn the Internet of things into

reality requires wireless transmission technologies which fulfill a number of criteria: low costs

in mass production, compact dimensions, minimal space requirements and energy

consumption, and simple handling and use. Radio frequency identification (RFID) and near-

field communication (NFC) are the two best-known technologies which will be used. NFC, for

example, can be used in mobile payment systems by connecting cell phones to the cash

registers in retail stores.

Radio frequency identification (RFID) is a technology which makes it possible to use radio

waves to read and store data on a chip without physical or visual contact. Possible uses of

RFID are manifold: in warehouse management, as electronic immobilization systems, for

access controls, or as proof of authenticity for medications. RFID tags are replacing the

traditional 2D bar code because they are substantially more versatile.

These developments in technology between now and 2032 will drive and be driven by a

continuous increase in demand for ICT solutions and services fundamentally affecting all

areas of our daily life – just a few of these areas will be looked at in the following chapter.



Think 2032!


Traffic control: Moreover, as the central information and communication access point in the

vehicle, the Internet will in the future provide a basis for increased traffic safety and

efficiency. By 2032, the various industrialized nations will each have an ICT infrastructure

which helps to reduce traffic congestion and the number of accidents by optimizing trafficcontrol. Evolving this scenario further, it can be envisaged that vehicles will be able to

exchange information relevant for travel with one another by means of vehicle-to-vehicle

networking, thus contributing to improved traffic control.

Mobility concepts: Lastly, ICT will be a major driver of new mobility concepts such as car

sharing in which vehicles are used in return for payment, much as happens in the rental car

business. In contrast to the traditional rental car concept, the vehicle can be picked up and

returned at any location. The application of ICT in this concept ranges from support for the

transaction processes (contract conclusion, mobile payment, e.g. per smartphone

application) to tracking of information about the use of the vehicles, data which can be

evaluated further for various purposes.

4.2 Energy

Climate change and dwindling fossil fuel resources will force us to rethink our ways of

providing energy. Too much of our energy is wasted today through inefficient use because

information which is required to optimize energy distribution and consumption is missing at

various points along the value chain. ICT will make this information available and provide the

knowledge we need to set up more effective and efficient energy supply systems. By 2032,

ICT infrastructures will be taken for granted as a fully integrated component of energy supply

and will contribute significantly to the increase in energy efficiency in developed countries.

Facility technology/smart metering: Experts estimate that within ten years ICT supportedcomponents in houses and apartments in industrialized countries will lead to energy savings

of about 30% in comparison with 2009. By 2032, smart meters will be the standard for facility

technology; they record energy consumption and transmit the data to a central control

center. The availability of consumption information in combination with flexible rate structures

will enable consumers to adapt their behavior – motivated by energy prices which vary

according to the time of day. We can assume for the future that the optimization of energy

consumption will be automated and supported by IT. For example, specialized service

providers will take over this function on behalf of the end users. Some consumers will select

the option of allowing energy providers to use remote control to turn off devices consuming

energy at certain peak load times. The users will have the advantage of lower energy costs;

the energy providers will have the advantage of avoiding peak loads which would otherwise

require the maintenance of expensive reserve network capacities.



Think 2032!


“Unbundling”, politically desired increase inintensity of competition

Climate protection targets/reduction of CO2emissions

Declining fossil energy resources

Rising geo-political dependency on remoteenergy suppliers

Decentralization of energy production (at

national level)

With US$ 433 Billion, worldwide energy marketby far outreaches size of ICT technologymarket*

Market for renewable energy technologygrowing from US$ 55.4 Billion in 2006 to US$226.5 Billion in 2016*

General market trend: stagnating demand,increasing prices

Key Data ICT Market Energy/Description of Selected Application Fields

2010

Automated control of energy inputdependent on price on the basis of measurable load and consumptionprofiles

Links with other digital homeapplications such as security

Centralized, intelligent/ICT-basedmanagement of energy supply based onnetworking of single plants

High degree of independence fromcentral energy sources

Integration of renewable energies

Utilization of decentralized energystorage (e.g. electric cars)

Charging of storage units during highenergy generation periods (e.g. sunny

conditions)

Utilization as needed

Demand Response Management

Virtual Power Plants

E-Mobility/Vehicle-to-grid

Market Size/Development (worldwide/US)

Market Drivers

Innovative ICT application fields

*Source: cleanedge

Figure 2: Application World Energy 2032

Decentralized energy management: ICT will in the future also play a major role in the

management of decentralized generators and volatile production structures. The proportion

of power won from renewable energy sources is growing; however, its generation is

dependent on the weather and is frequently distributed over wide geographical regions. The

rising number of highly effective combined heat and power generators (CHP), which

generate energy on location and which are used during specific seasons, will contribute to

the fragmentation of the producer structure. Dispersed and irregular generation, however,

has the disadvantage that the power is often not generated where and when it is in demand.

This is what leads to surpluses and shortfalls in capacity. So-called virtual power plants help

with load management; their importance will rise sharply. They are created by connecting

decentralized energy production systems by means of a suitable ICT infrastructure.

Decentralized power generation and fluctuating power consumption can be coordinated

using a centralized, computer-aided control unit.

Power storage: Yet another promising application for ICT in the energy sector is the so-

called vehicle-to-grid concept. It refers to the networking of vehicle batteries into a collective

energy storage medium so that electricity can be stored intermediately at low cost during

times of low consumption. Storing energy today is very costly. In 2032, the storage capacity

of batteries in electric vehicles will be available for use as an additional buffer for power supply. The basic requirement here is the connection of the dispersed storage media using

suitable information and communication infrastructure together with an intelligent control

system so that demand for power can be satisfied using stored electricity when the

generation of power from renewable energy sources is limited, because of weather

conditions for example.



Think 2032!


4.3 Home and lifestyle

During the next twenty years, we will see ICT bringing about changes which will be nearly as

dramatic as those of the Industrial Revolution.

The quantities of digitally recordable and, by 2032, de facto recorded information related to

virtually all imaginable areas of life will take on dimensions never seen before. The

revolutionary impact will result from the technical ability to link and systematically utilize

digital data from a range of highly diverse sources. It is like a puzzle; a recognizable picture

does not emerge until a certain number of the pieces are in place. The value of the

aggregated data is many times greater than that of the isolated elements. New business

fields will appear, while others will become obsolete and vanish; but more than anything

else, the rules and habits of our social interaction will change fundamentally.

The following example will illustrate our point. A future real estate agent photographs a

building; a short time later, he has obtained all the key information he requires for themarketing of the property – such as the number of residential units, floor plans, and

occupancy rate – by making a quick search of the Internet. He then uses another Internet

application to determine whether the names on the doorbells match the names of the tenants

of the building. He would like to have additional information and uses the picture recognition

function of his camera to record a tenant entering the building. He strikes it lucky and obtains

extensive profile data of this person, including age, nationality, and profession as well as

preferences, interests, and leisure-time activities. All of this is possible because people have

left tracks behind on the Internet in the past, and because they have agreed to the further

use of their data – or because recorded data has not been properly protected.

At present, only a fraction of the potential data sources have been tapped. This spectrum willhave expanded significantly by 2032. At that time, objects and appliances will be connected

to the Internet and supply additional data. So we can expect the quantity of available data to

grow exponentially.

In many environments, including the home, sensors will, generally without being noticed,

record movements and behavioral patterns, store the collected data, and link it to other data.

The recording of information will not even stop at human genetic material. What application

scenarios can be imagined once the genetic code of a person has been stored in the digital

data pool? In twenty years, the costs for an individual genome analysis will have fallen to

such an extent that the average citizen will be able to afford it. Alternatively, software

companies could take on these costs in order to use the genome information as the basis for

the development and marketing of more extensive applications, e.g. recommendations for action based on the analysis results.



Think 2032!


Mobile Internet

Continued rise of broadband penetration

Open innovation

Advertising business models

Evolved (Internet) technologies

Advancing standardization (e.g. in M2M sector)

Convergence

Dynamic growth of fiber broadband subscriptions:18% CAGR 2010 – 2015 (worldwide)*

In 2020, more than 95% of the grown-uppopulation in Europe and the US will use theInternet and its services on a regular basis**

Already, 87% of the age group 18-24 has viewedonline video in the last 12 months (worldwide)*

Smart phones expected to become the biggestindividual CE market by 2013 (overtaking PCmarket)***

Key Data ICT Mass Market/Description of Selected Application Fields

2010 Ambient Intelligence

Holographic moving images & virtual reality

Semantic search

New applications simplifying daily life

based on networking of sensors, radiomodules, and computer processors(e.g. intelligent control of facilitytechnology, security systems, travelmanagement, etc.)

Three dimensional moving images andmulti-media formats, e.g. TV & video,gaming, augmented reality

Computed images/synthesized realworld images

Enhanced user experience

Multi-modal semantic searchfunctionality based on text, speech or picture recognition (incl. facerecognition)

Significant improvement in quality of thesearch results; many new anddiversified applications

Market size & development

Market Drivers


*Source: ABI Research 2010; **Delphi-Study Zukunft ITK und

Medien 2030 (2009); IDC Cosnumer Predictions 2010

Figure 3: ICT Mass Market 2032

If the already apparent trend to complete transparency and public display continues to gather

force, the “social control of the digital village” will replace the “anonymity of the large city”.

The loss of privacy and the diffuse “Big Brother” feeling will prompt a backlash: the

commercial processing of data will be regulated. Attention will focus particularly on the so-

called smart agents: software applications which organize themselves to take over specific

program functions and, in their collective interaction, generate a kind of artificial intelligence

to improve information searches and selection on the Internet, and provide decision-making

support based on this information. The sensitivity of personal information in combination with

the significance of smart agents will ensure that lawmakers will focus on them, particularly in

relation to competition and data security laws, because smart agents can bundle customer

information and give preference to specific providers. But at the moment the private storage

of data for future use is on its way to becoming the rule rather than the exception.

However, there is also the voluntary or careless waiver of the private sphere. Innovative

applications can simplify daily life and are felt to be useful in many practical things. Users will

be prepared to reveal much about themselves to obtain such benefits. Just how far this type

of exhibitionism can go is already being demonstrated by the social networks on the Internet.

More and more companies, not just Google, are learning how to exploit this trend to develop

new business ideas.



Think 2032!


4.4 Health Care

To date, ICT has not set off the long hoped-for transformation in health care. However, this

will have changed by 2032. The main drivers are the aging population and the rising costpressure. The creation of an integrated information and communication infrastructure

networking the players in health care will increase the system’s efficiency significantly; ICT

systems in health care will then serve as researchable medical databases with open

interfaces. The intelligent networking of a large number of such databases will give rise to a

“smart grid” of medicine. Besides reducing costs, this will improve medical practice and

vitalize research into new medications. The information networking will be able to provide

better data as to how medications are actually taken and how they interact with other

medications. The linking of electronic patient files with medication research systems will

make it possible to draw conclusions related to the development of medicines. Moreover, it

will increase the efficiency of innovation management in research and development.

Demographic transformation

Continuing cost pressures in health care sector

Sharp cost increase for people over 65

Rising needs for out-patient care

New methods for treatment

Technological progress, e.g. nano technologies,Internet technologies

Accelerating awareness of health issues

In the US, health care spend per capita hasreached 1,645 US$, long term CAGR: 2.6%;health care spend as % GDP steadilyincreasing, expected to reach 19.5% by 2017*

In the EU, almost 10% of the working populationemployed in the health industry**

US vertical telecommunication health market toreach US$ 8.7 Billion by 2013 (CAGR: 4.7%)***

Market size & development

Key Data ICT Market Health Care/Description of Selected Application Fields

Market Drivers


2010Integrated information networks

DNA sequencing

Connected body implants

Intelligent ICT networking of healthcare-related institutes and people:physicians, hospitals, pharmaceuticals,health insurance companies, patients

Collection of data concerning medicalcare and handling processes

Low-cost or cost-free availability of complete chromosome analysis (dig.data records)

Linking with other information based onsmart health grid

Innovative Internet-based apps

Nano robots for monitoring organicfunctions or performance of operationsat molecular level

Intelligent pills which can be guided byradio signals for application in specificbody areasSource: *US National Health Expenditure Data: NHE Fact Sheet;

**European Commission; ***IDC 2010

Figure 4: Application World Health Care 2032



Think 2032!


Miniaturization using nano technology will in the future lead to a significant expansion of the

spectrum of information available about patients. Body implants, which experts predict will be

in use for 25% of the population in 20 years, can be connected to ICT systems and transmit

information directly to portable devices or the digital patient file. Access to electronicallystored information about people’s health conditions will open up additional areas of

application such as direct access to blood group information in emergencies.

Mature radio transmission technologies and user-friendly operating elements in attractive

designs (following the example of the iPhone) will develop an additional field of innovative

telemedical applications. They will enable the practice of modern medical techniques in

geographical regions which were once almost inaccessible or undeveloped, especially in

threshold and developing countries with inadequate infrastructures. Simple applications such

as the continuous remote monitoring of vital signs will become accessible to large parts of

the population, physicians will be better equipped to make reliable remote diagnoses,

expensive follow-up treatment will not require hospitalization so often because the treatment,

the physical therapy of a stroke victim for example, can be controlled remotely using self-service computer programs.



Think 2032!


5 ICT industry dynamics

5.1 Trends shaping the information andtelecommunications industry

The technological revolutions and economic developments sketched here as well as their

effects on the described application areas will be essential factors determining the ICT

provider structure in 2032.

Convergence is and will remain the driving force behind the evolution of the ICT market until

2032. But the focus will shift over the course of time: whereas today the emphasis is on the

convergence between TC/IT, contents/IP, and fixed and mobile, the focus will shift to

convergence between industries.

The following trends can be regarded as the forerunners of the major movements on the ICTmarket:

1. ICT will be everywhere. Highly miniaturized ICT components and services will

become immanent components of capital and consumer goods; clothing, household

goods, medicine, and entire buildings will largely become “IP-capable”. ICT

companies will be component suppliers without any relationship to the end users.

2. Smart business networks will dominate industrial production.7

Their ICT

enablers will drive the automation of industrial decision-making, value creation, and

transaction processes to such an extent that significant synergy and savings

potential can be exploited by transforming rigid value chains into agile value

networks. The smart use of ICT will become the decisive competitive advantage for industrial and service companies so that they can successfully hold a position at the

strategically important nodes in these networks.

3. Increasingly open IP and APIs are leading to the decoupling of the established

ICT value chains – more quickly than in the rest of the economy. IT and Internet

companies such as Apple, Google, or Microsoft are today already securing large

areas of ICT value creation. They are producing smartphones, developing

infrastructure solutions (such as PBX and IPTV solutions based on software or cloud

computing), and offering applications enabling voice and video telephony to end

users.

Completely new players will appear in the next few years and contribute further to

the erosion of the cash cows such as mobile networks. The migration from a circuit-

switched to an IP call, for example, can allow a personal social network (PSN) such

as Facebook to step between the customers and the telco. The rules on the ICT

market will be rewritten and the deck will be reshuffled.

7 Pioneers of smart business networks can be found above all in the financial and logistics sectors. In aircraft

catering, for example, e-gatematrix of Switzerland has established a “business operating system” on which the

supply chains of buyers and sellers of “on-board services” can be orchestrated. Food producers, large-scale

caterers, logistics service providers, and airlines can manage their information, goods, and transaction flows

here. The growing use of learning IT systems is making the flows “more intelligent” and expanding them to cover

other industrial segments.



Think 2032!


4. The Internet will become the “central nervous system” of society and

individuals. The governmental task of ensuring the publics’ welfare will require

massive regulation of consumer rights, certifications, and anti-trust laws in the digital

age. A key task for political players will be seen in the safeguarding of the

individual’s right to privacy and security of their personal data. Ultimately, it will be inthe governments’ own interests to exercise a certain amount of control. The

negotiations with RIM/BlackBerry about securing lawful interception and the public

discussions regarding consumer protection for Google Street View are just the first

taste of a trend which is growing in strength. This re-regulation will lay the foundation

for greater utilization of the Internet in all areas of life.

We will experience a massive expansion of the ICT market volume from its current

approximate $4.1 trillion. What we today call the ICT market will be the starting point for

significant growth. A multitude of companies will attempt to secure a part of this still highly

profitable market.

5.2 Structural impacts on the ICT industry

The trends described above will greatly change the ICT industry. They will lead to previously

unknown dynamics in the industry which we call “horizontal industry convergence”8. For

one, ICT companies will act as providers in industries previously foreign to them to approach

end users. We have seen this happening in the music or book industry already and there is a

strong trend towards it in the energy market. On the other hand, companies previously

unknown to the ICT industry will push into this lucrative domain. Such moves will be

aimed at specific levels of ICT value creation. For example, gas or electric power utility

companies which have their own infrastructures will enter the capital-intensive sector of

building and expanding telecommunication infrastructure, e.g. for optical fiber networks.

8 Just as Apple or Google are currently in the process of taking over positions in other industries (e.g. music,

advertising, or navigation), the borders between the ICT industry and other industries (e.g. construction,

residences, electricity, transport, health care, or insurance) will in the future become more permeable so that the

competition for shares in this rising potential will increase.



Think 2032!


The industrial dynamics induced by ICT will change the structure of the industry in

three ways.

1. The vertical disintegration of value creation in the telecommunications sector

There was a vertical disintegration in the IT industry back in the 1990s as a

consequence of the separation of software (operating system, applications) from

hardware. The vertical disintegration in the telecommunications industry is taking place

along the lines of the SalesCo-ServCo-NetCo structures which arose within the

framework of “traditional convergence”, i.e. sales is becoming independent of the

product and service development which is in turn cutting itself loose from the network

infrastructure. The vertically integrated network operators have technical advantages

solely for services closely tied to the network, such as IPTV or telepresence which

require a very specific network quality.

The vertical disintegration of the telecommunications industry will accelerate as legal,regulatory, or political constraints which encouraged or protected integrated value

creation such as obsolete methods for granting licenses9

are removed. In fact, vertical

disintegration in selected segments is desirable from an economic standpoint, namely, if

providers make specific use of the control of one stage of value creation such as network

operation to discriminate against competitors or even to shut them out completely. In the

European Union, a powerful instrument has just recently been placed in the hands of the

regulatory authorities in the form of forced network separation. The EU can now enforce

the vertical disintegration and organizational separation of an access network operation

in the event of hindered competition.

2. Horizontal convergence: ICT converges with other industriesThe focus in the ICT industry today remains fixed on the convergence between TC/IT,

content/IP, and fixed and mobile. In the future, however, the emphasis will have shifted

to the horizontal integration of industries. The boundaries between the ICT industry and

other industries will become permeable, causing the competition for shares in this

growing market potential to heat up. Rising sales potential from convergent products and

solutions will further horizontal integration across industrial borders. The horizontal

integration of value creation stages across industrial boundaries will be based on vertical

disintegration within the industries resulting from standardized value creation interfaces.

Companies will be able to stand out at the separated value creation stages through cost

advantages and performance differentiation. And those with competitive advantages

which are difficult to replicate will dominate. Cost advantages, for example, can berealized through cross-industry synergies. Synergies can also result from the transfer of

technologies or processes to other industries, which is what Apple does with iTunes.

9 The effective utilization of resources was demanded as one of the primary goals during the EU 2020 Strategy

Consultations. Instruments such as spectrum trading and a liberal authorization environment are important

components to assure efficient utilization in the ICT sector. The authorization directive of the EU is a

requirement which aims even now at creating an internal market for electronic communication in the EU.



Think 2032!


In the same way, a telecommunications operator can make use of its rather

sophisticated CRM and billing capabilities to offer adjacent infrastructure services such

as gas, water, or electricity in order to distribute the fixed costs more widely. This is also

applicable to the infrastructure sector. For example, the costs which arise from thesimultaneous deployment of an optical fiber infrastructure during roadworks are far lower

than those incurred by a telecommunications company on its own. The costs for the

laying of optical fiber cable make up as much as three-quarters of the total capital costs

for the network infrastructure. Transport or sewage infrastructure companies could

perform the network deployment at an exceptionally competitive price.

3. Consumer emancipation by technological progress in a regulated area

The much heralded “two-sided business model”, in which information on telco customers

are used for business purposes, belong to the past. There is a trivial reason for this:

customers will (must) become emancipated. Data security and the individual’s right toprivacy, especially in relation to the networking of personal information, are becoming

more and more prominent. As advances continue to be made in the field of artificial

intelligence and learning systems, the smart agents10

will attain such significance that

they will be the focus of competition and data security laws. They will open the door to a

very decisive shift: from push to pull. In the future, the personal e-butler will go onto the

Internet or into the cloud, instead of the user himself.

Consumers will accept these new service offers either from brand name manufacturers

or from ICT companies which are seen to be especially trustworthy. These offers are

usually based on a so-called third trusted party service (TTPS) and, alongside the smart

agents, include additional security filters (e.g. privacy gateways). Within this protected

and “certified” environment, private customers will contact smart business networks,

sometimes in constellations in which two software agents determine supply and demand.

In addition to consumer needs for usability, design, and lifestyle, the aspect of trust is of

decisive importance. Anti-trust laws and consumer protection at the digital interface

between people and smart business networks is critical for the success of the policy and

its legitimacy.

10 An “agent” is a computer system found in a specific environment which is capable of carrying out activities on its

own initiative in this environment so as to achieve its goals. We differentiate between “reactive agents” and

“smart agents”. Heavy use is already being made of reactive agents in e-commerce. Java offers a

comprehensive agent framework for this (JADE). We use the term “smart agents” to refer to the further

development of “cognitive agents”; they make greater use of artificial intelligence to enable autonomous actionfor specific uses and objectives.



Think 2032!


ICT providers today are at a crossroads: over the course of the coming vertical

disintegration, every market player will face the question as to which of their core

competencies are really competitive. When, and how quickly, will telcos, for example, be

capable of migrating today’s cash cows (e.g. mobile voice) to more innovative serviceswithout burning money? The convergence of the industries will generate enormous

challenges. On the one hand, it will be necessary to act across industrial borders and

simultaneously provide increasing support to industry-specific value creation processes. On

the other hand, the dynamics of horizontal convergence at the infrastructure level demand

enormous amounts of capital and the realization of scaling advantages. If private customers

now become emancipated and the governments of the world regulate the new smart agent

technologies with tight consumer protection provisions, it becomes clear that there will hardly

be a single company anywhere in the world that can be successful in all of these areas

simultaneously: they require varying core competencies and corporate cultures. Each ICT

provider must be clear concerning the sector in which they can maintain their position.

Li fe & living Transport & Mobili ty Health & Environment Energy

ICT enabled industry convergence fields 2032ICT convergence 2010

Fixed-Mobile

TC/ITContent/IP

ICT convergence 2010

Fixed-Mobile

TC/ITContent/IP

Fixed-Mobile

TC/ITContent/IP

Infrastructureas a service

Alternative Carrierselectricity/ gas, roadsPPPs infrastructures,

Cloud Computing andSupplier Players

Licensed fixed- andmobile operators

Business asa Service

Smart BusinessNetworks Facilitator

Consumer ICT

MediationB2B2C Enablers

Vertical integration only with

deep field experience

Horizontal economies of scale depend

on B2B2C maturity

Sales Co

Serv Co

Net Co

4,100 Billion $ XXX,000 Billion $

From vertical disintegration to horizontal convergence

Business fields PlayersBusiness fields Players

Figure 5: Vertical Disintegration and Horizontal Industry Convergence



Think 2032!


6 ICT market structure 2032

In line with these trends and structural impacts, three segments for future value creation will

crystallize in the provider landscape for ICT by 2032:

Providers with a very high level of process, IT, and industry competence and which

are in a position to realize B2B business models across a number of industries

“Business as a Service” (BaaS)

Companies with a very strong reputation and private customer affinity which act

discreetly on the smart business networks as “e-butlers” or possibly as avatars in the

real world to represent the interests and transactions of their customers

“Consumer ICT Mediation” (CIM)

“Infrastructure as a Service” (IaaS) providers which make converginginfrastructures available.

This market structure does not exclude the possibility that there will still be some vertical

integration over the value creation stages IaaS-BaaS-CIM. There will also be companies

which are able to maintain a strong position in two segments, but they will not be the rule.

The competitive pressures in all of the segments will increase as companies previously alien

to the industry begin to move in.

6.1 Business as a Service

A basic form of BaaS provisioning is the use of industry convergence at the point of sale.

Why should an ICT provider not sell other products, perhaps in the areas mobility, trafficcontrol, energy, or insurance? ICT providers with solid CRM core competencies will profit

from industry convergence and migrate to other industries such as energy or financial

services.

“Business as a Service” becomes more complex, when it enables “smart business

networks”, which efficiently provide market-oriented consumer services on the basis of

loosely coupled business relationships initialized on an ad hoc basis. BaaS providers will

support such smart business networks using ICT services, without managing the business

relationships themselves. From the telco’s point of view, this means, for example, that

business and private customers will not buy access products directly, just as is already the

case with the Amazon Kindle business model for the consumer market.

11

Cross-industry costadvantages in particular are essential for sustained success in this business.

11 The Amazon’s Kindle device can be used to download electronic books, magazines, and newspapers. Amazon

has the Kindle manufactured according to its own specifications, utilizes the data connection from an ICT

provider, and obtains the content from media companies. The required connection is a component of the

product and users do not have to pay Amazon for the data transmission. The management of the customer

relationship is with Amazon and not the telco provider, who acts as a pure supplier here.



Think 2032!


Business as a Service

buy refine sell

Business

as a

Service

Key

Players SI, Managed ICT SPs

CRM, Banks & 3rd

Trusted Parties

Home & Lifestyle Mobility Health & Environment Energy

Key ICT- industry convergence fields 2032

deliver transact communicate informdeliver transact communicate inform

B2B B2C

Horizontal & vertical smartbusiness networks

Consumer

ICT

Mediation

Smart agent capabilities

ICT-Business Mediation

Top Brands, CPE ,

Chip Suppliers

Embedded devices (smartwearables, robots…)

Embedded systems (M2M,cooperating objects…)

Distribution &

Logistics

OTTs/ Smart

Business Networks

customer

compatibility

Smart Industry Networks

Figure 6: Business as a Service (BaaS)

6.2 Consumer ICT mediation

If we now imagine that a personal social network such as Facebook could take on the

orchestration of the ICT value chain including telephony just as well as a telco, we are on the

way to understanding just how the future of the sector consumer ICT mediation may look.

The users are in control here (or at least they think they are). In the future, they will have

even more opportunities to determine what happens. Certified CIM providers who specialize

in offering self-learning systems in browser-like smart agent and/or avatar services willenable them. The market for CIM will tend to be segmented according to criteria which either

have data protection relevance or emphasize lifestyle.

The value creation area of consumer ICT mediation represents a middleman between the

providers of consumer goods or services and the consumers. ICT itself is contained in the

procured BaaS services or is made available by the CIM provider on the basis of generic

infrastructure services. This affects not only the user equipment level such as smart phones,

robots, or wearable computing, but will also impact the search for information, selection,

decisions, and transactions for consumers: activities which can be taken over by smart

agents. We assume that in 2032 the smart agent technologies will have advanced to the

point of being able to process semantic contexts as well.

This refers to a retail business model which can be realized by a number of players. First

and foremost strong consumer brands, in cooperation with enabling partners from the TTPS

and/or privacy and security gateways sectors, will take advantage of wholesale offers from

the IaaS sector to provide CIM products and services. But today’s telcos can also point to

their IaaS competence to win points with customers. In competing with the strong brands,

they will have to set themselves apart through the factors of integrity and corporate social

responsibility. Other decisive competitive factors will be agility and innovative strength.



Think 2032!


All in all, it is foreseeable that it will become more and more difficult for providers to design

complete B2B2C business models because two separate market segments are evolving.

This development will force today’s over-the-top players such as Google in particular to

make a choice between BaaS and CIM.

6.3 Infrastructure as a Service

In principle, IaaS will be offered at three different value creation levels, all of them based on

wholesale business models related to BaaS and CIM customers:

1. Next generation access and IT services; native broadband connection products (fixed

and wireless), including network and back end APIs; and cloud computing services

2. Managed infrastructure services which perform certain integration services for a number

of different infrastructure types (e.g. basic services for traffic guidance systems)

3. Dedicated infrastructure services with a high degree of specialization (backbone, robot

parks, sensor networks)

Infrastructure as a Service

IT & DataCenters

Native Connectivity and Storage as a a service(e.g. NGA)

Operator/Supplier owned ICT Infrastructure Operations

DeviceFleets

Software &Content

Infrastructure as

a Service Service Providers for Managed ICTInfrastructure Operations & Maintenance

Urban & longdistance Sensor NetworksPerv. Computing

Enabling (AAA, Security, DRM, Community, Multi-access/Multi-device Service Delivery, …)

Native User/M2M Interfaces

Key

Players

Alternative Carriers (Electricity/Gas, PPPs for infrastructure, e.g.roads)

Cloud Computing/IT & TC,Software suppliers

Licensed fixed and mobileoperators

TC Infrastructure(Backbone and/or Access)

Figure 7: Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS)

Managed IaaS is offered for various uses which require high investments in infrastructure:

city management, end devices and robot management, cloud computing, sensor technology,

and, last but not least, traffic and mobility management, including toll systems and private-

public partnership models for the realization of public infrastructure projects.

Looking ahead, it is clear that virtually no provider will be capable of financing the increasing

infrastructure demand alone. Moreover, low cost competitors along with the high investment

needs beyond the laying of broadband cable will make the positioning of ICT providers in

telecoms infrastructure competition more difficult. As a result ICT providers might limit

themselves to a number of service categories in IaaS business.



Think 2032!


Ownership of the expensive infrastructure, which will need to be expanded, is only a sensible

move if there are substantial cross-border scaling effects to be achieved. Experts estimate

that a top 3 position in the region in question must be reached if operations are to be

profitable. By 2032, only a few transnational providers will survive, and oligopolistic marketconditions requiring continuous regulation will dominate.

In the IaaS sector IT & Data Center , successful software companies will develop into

successful BaaS providers and become strong competitors of today’s telecommunications

providers. As of the moment, it appears that it will be very difficult for most carriers to win

sustainable shares in this market. In the age of robots, connected cars, and embedded

objects, the sector End Devices and Fleets will become very important within the framework

of IaaS, but of course it will also attract new competitors.



Think 2032!


7 Outlook: heading into the new world of telcos

The three new main sectors of value creation – BaaS, Consumer ICT Mediation, and IaaS –

will demand completely different core competencies from telecommunications providers.

Virtually no provider will be able to maintain a leading position in all three sectors. In the long

term, most of them will concentrate on one or two of these sectors. Carriers should set their

basic course now. But what are the prerequisites for success in the different value creation

sectors?

The future belongs to horizontally integrated ICT companies which concentrate either on

business areas oriented to the market and service, or on business areas concentrating on

infrastructure. Just as Apple or Google are currently penetrating the music and advertising

industries, the boundaries between the ICT industry and other sectors will in future become

less distinct, as described in the application areas above.

Figure 8: ICT Industry Convergence 2032

The growing immanence of ICT in the other industries’ products and in business and private

life will mean that fewer “straightforward” ICT services are sold. Successful supermarket

chains for example will sell embedded ICT services in their products. Estimates indicate thatICT providers will handle only 20% to 30% of the consumer business directly. They will

concentrate on IaaS and BaaS wholesale interfaces, which must be expanded in their scope.

The companies which are able to realize B2B2C business models across the borders of

various industries will emerge as the winners in the battle for the consumer market. Only ICT

companies with high third trusted party credibility and top brand providers will continue to be

successful in consumer business.



Think 2032!


The decisive factor for success in BaaS is the agility with which companies in the flexible

business networks can position themselves at the most important ‘nodes’. BaaS providers

must have the relevant industrial know-how and quickly build up the appropriate

infrastructure for the business networks, including transaction platforms, data hosting, billingservices, payment systems, and supplementary ICT services performed by third parties.

Important for the success of BaaS providers are the control of software development,

achieved either using own products or by steering the developer community; the

maintenance of high speed in innovations during the implementation of new services and

business models; and the assurance of flexibility and quality.

Telco companies in Consumer ICT Mediation will be competing with companies at the same

value creation stage, especially in terms of speed and realization of innovation. This

demands an organizational structure which can work ad hoc with a large number of

diversified product partners. Scaling advantages in sales must be achieved by the provision

of cross-industry products, especially in markets with strong brand names. In any case, the

immediate forceful realization of smart agent technologies at the customer interface is to berecommended so as to gain experience and build up a reputation in this field.

Only a very few, large ICT companies will be able to utilize the business model IaaS

profitably. However, they will have to seize upon international scale advantages and provide

high-quality services to be successful in B2C/B2B wholesale. Most of today’s carriers do not

appear to have a chance of winning significant market shares in the future storage market.

Managed infrastructure and enabling services, on the other hand, is a highly promising

business field. Its profitability will be determined by value creation in native access products

and the ability to become established as an OEM quality brand for BaaS. IaaS providers will

be concentrating on wholesale customers in 2032 – and will be able to depend on the broad

base of an integrated network infrastructure. But investments in the infrastructure, which areby nature costly, will only make sense if a top 3 position in the country or region can be

achieved.

Each company is itself responsible for how and when it sets its basic course for 2032. But

two things are clear: the ICT industry as it exists today will no longer be around in 2032 and

from a geographic perspective the focus will have shifted towards Asia.



Think 2032!


8 The authors

Dr. Karl-Michael Henneking, Member of the Executive Board,

Head of Strategy and Marketing Practice;

[email protected]

Lars Theobaldt, Managing Partner, Head of Sales and Distribution Group;

[email protected]

Bernd Ettelbrück, Partner, Head of Business Innovation Group;

[email protected]

Falk Wöhler-Moorhoff; Managing Consultant, Business Innovation Group;

[email protected]

Daniel dos Reis; Senior Consultant, Corporate Strategy Group;

[email protected]



Think 2032!

9 The company

We make ICT strategies work

Detecon is a consulting company which unites traditional management consulting with a high

level of technology expertise.

Our company history is proof: Detecon International is the product of the merger of the

management and IT consulting company Diebold, founded in 1954, and the

telecommunications consultancy Detecon, founded in 1977. Our services focus on

consulting and implementation solutions which are derived from the use of information and

communications technology (ICT). Our clients in virtually every industry from all around the

world benefit from our holistic know-how in issues of strategy and organizational design and

the use of state-of-the-art technologies.

Detecon’s expertise bundles the knowledge from the successful conclusion of management

and ICT consulting projects in more than 160 countries. We are represented globally by

subsidiaries, affiliates, and project offices. Detecon is a subsidiary of T-Systems

International, the business account brand at Deutsche Telekom, so we profit as consultants

from an infrastructure spanning the globe and which is maintained by a major international

player.

Know-how and Do-how

The rapid development of information and telecommunications technologies has an

increasingly decisive influence on the strategies of companies as well as on the processes

within an organization. The complex adaptations subsequently required affect businessmodels and corporate structures, not only technological applications.

Our services for ICT management encompass classic strategy and organization consulting

as well as the planning and implementation of highly complex, technological ICT

architectures and applications. We are independent of manufacturers and obligated solely to

our clients’ success.

Detecon International GmbH

Oberkasselerstr. 253227 Bonn

Telefon: +49 228 700 0

E-Mail: [email protected]

Internet: www.detecon.com

detecon opinion paper think ict 2032! position for ict everywhere

Documents