ipv4 address depletion: a cto perspective (detecon executive briefing)

8/8/2019 IPv4 address depletion: A CTO perspective (Detecon Executive Briefing)

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www.detecon.com

Steffen Oehler Kees van Peer

Steffen.Oehler @ detecon.com Kees.vanPeer @ detecon.com

IPv4 address depletion

A CTO perspective

The world is increasingly reliant on telecommunication networks no

matter whether they are fixed or mobile. The Internet and broadband

connections to it are the basis for nearly all new communication

services. Even though the number of computers and Internet users

continues to grow with impressive speed, the connection of “things”

(devices) to the Internet is expected to increase even more

significantly over the next few years. The wide spectrum of new

members in the Internet community will range from coffee machines to

cars and to all kinds of sensor applications. All of these devices will

need a unique address, a so-called IP address. Currently the majority

of the addresses conform to the IP version 4 (IPv4) standard. Whilst

the required number of addresses is expected to explode, the number

of IPv4 addresses is limited. Therefore operators and providers will

soon have to migrate to a new addressing standard called IP version 6

(IPv6). This new addressing standard has not yet received the

attention it deserves, and most companies are running their networks

using IPv4 only. Detecon recommends that operators and providers

take action now because the end of the available IPv4 address space

is on the horizon. The migration towards IPv6 will be a time and

resource consuming exercise, which if addressed too late will put

revenue at risk.

> Executive Briefing



Detecon International GmbH 03/2008 2 www.detecon.com


IPv4 address depletion – A CTO perspective

IP4aedeo

Introduction

The Internet is a worldwide, publicly accessible collection of interconnected communications

networks that use packet switching techniques to transmit data formatted according to the

Internet Protocol version 4 (IPv4) specifications. All systems that are connected to the

Internet need a unique address, a so-called IPv4 address. This address is carried in a 32 bit

field of an IPv4 packet, so there are almost 4.3 billion possible addresses. Unfortunately,

many of these addresses cannot be used because they are reserved for special purposes or

have been assigned to the internal networks of large companies or government agencies.

Furthermore, addresses are not distributed evenly among regions, countries and companies.

Some of the first large users of the Internet, such as the US Department of Defence, IBM

and AT&T have been assigned large portions of the IPv4 address space whilst developingregions, such as Africa and Latin America, have only been assigned small portions of the

IPv4 address space. The following figure shows the distribution of the IPv4 address space

over the different regions in the world as well as an overview of the 15 countries that have

the most addresses assigned to them.

19%

22%

12%

1%

Africa

12%

Asia Pacific

12%North America

3% Latin America

Europe + Russia

Various

Historical

19%

Available

NL

End-2007

0

UKUS JP CN EU CA

End-2006

DE FR KR AU IT BR MX ES

100

120

1.380

140

1.400

1.420

20

40

60

80

IPv4 address space distribution (source: Illjitsch van Beijnum, “2007 IPv4 address use report”)

By the end of 2007 only 19% of the usable address space was unassigned. It is safe to

assume that the Internet will continue to grow, so a day will come when there are no

unassigned IPv4 addresses available. Internet standardization organizations acknowledged

this as a problem and started the development of a new packet specification with an

enhanced addressing concept in the early 1990s, namely IP version 6 (IPv6). Although

completed by the end of the last century, companies placed it low on their priority list largely

because there were still enough IPv4 addresses available and because there were technical

measures available to work around a limitation in the number of addresses. But today these

operators and providers can not maintain this positioning because the end of the available

IPv4 address space is on the horizon.






IP4aedeo

Momentum for the use of IPv6 is building. Vendors are emphasizing the IPv6 capabilities of

their products and Internet organizations (such as RIPE and ARIN) have called on the

industry to adopt IPv6. In this executive briefing, Detecon will analyze how the IPv4 address

depletion can impact an operator’s and provider’s capability to deliver services. Furthermore,

this document will give recommendations on how operators and providers can manage the

implementation and migration to IPv6.

The problem

In the previous section a bold statement was made that the end of the unassigned IPv4address space is on the horizon. One of the main questions is obviously: “when is it going to

happen?” “And more importantly, how will it impact operators and providers?” These two

questions will now be addressed:

1. When: it is expected in the spring of 20121. There is a large margin of error in this

prediction since address space consumption depends on many factors (e.g. economic

development). The actual depletion date might be as early as 2010 or as late as 2013;

2. Impact: existing networks will initially continue to operate. However, if addressed too late

there are significant risks to revenue growth and to service delivery capability. Operators

and providers will have to deal with issues such as:

Growth of customer base and services since they do not have the addresses toconnect new customers.

Introduction of new services that require massive numbers of connections (such as

machine-to-machine communications) or that require technology that only supports

IPv6 (such as next generation mobile services).

Managing and scaling their network since they will have to compensate for the

limitations in their IPv4 address space by implementing technologies that have

significant limitations of their own.

Interestingly, the problem of IPv4 address depletion has some resemblances to the

millennium problem:

Both have a deadline. The IPv4 deadline will not be as compelling as the deadline for the

millennium problem but will be there nonetheless.

Both require a complete assessment of all involved systems to determine the exact

impact of the problem and to decide on the next steps.

Both are underestimated since companies are waiting until the problem is fully visible

before adopting measures to address it.

1Source: Geoff Huston, “IPv4 address report” at http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html






IP4aedeo

Detecon strongly recommends that operators and providers learn from the lessons of the

millennium project and start planning now for the introduction of IPv6 in to their networks.

This is not a trivial undertaking:

All hardware and software must support IPv6. Even though vendors’ marketing

departments state that their products fully support IPv6 and its features, the reality is

often different. In some cases IPv6 is only implemented in software, whereas IPv4 is

often implemented in hardware, essentially giving operators a reduction in the capacity in

their network when they turn on IPv6.

The customer’s hardware and software must also support IPv6. This will not be a

problem for state-of-the-art consumer products, but how will operators and providers

convince a customer with an IPv4 product to buy an IPv6 one? Especially if there are noclear benefits for the customer! Therefore, equipment purchased today should ideally

already support IPv6.

Operators and providers should thoroughly test the IPv6 implementation since small

differences in implementation may lead to interoperability problems.

The networks to which an IPv6 based operator or provider connects must support IPv6.

Otherwise the network will essentially be an IPv6 island in an IPv4 world.

The operator and provider staff must be trained in IPv6.

A network must allow IPv4 and IPv6 to coexist in order to allow for a smooth transition.

This is especially important since IPv4 will still be used for many years.

Next steps

The successful implementation of and migration to IPv6 requires that different parts of an

operator’s and provider’s organization cooperate and communicate. Detecon recommends

that companies set up a multidisciplinary project team in which all involved departments are

represented. The following figure shows the recommended approach to IPv6 implementation

and migration.

Purchasing of IPv6 capable systems / Education

Analyze

(approximately 1 year)

Plan

(approximately 6 months)

Execute

(5+ years)

Existing environment

Vendor Roadmap

Execute changes

Update Plan

IPv6planning

Implementation

and Migrationplan

Service

Strategy

& RoadmapArchitecture

IPv6 implementation and migration roadmap






IP4aedeo

As can be seen from this figure, this approach consists of four major blocks:

1. Ensure that all newly purchased equipment is fully IPv6 capable in software. High

performance systems (such as routers and switches) must also provide full hardware

support for IPv6. This is essential since new purchases may not be fully depreciated by

the time IPv6 is turned on in a network. Additionally the operators and providers should

train their staff in IPv6.

2. Start with an analysis of the existing environment and services. This means:

Requesting an IPv6 roadmap from all hardware and software suppliers.

Furthermore, the operators and providers should get an IPv6 roadmap from all

network operators to which they are connected. This will provide valuable

information on how and when IPv6 can be turned on based on an operator’s existing

platforms.

Reviewing the IPv4 addressing in the existing network, OSS/BSS and (corporate) IT

environment and services. This will provide operators and providers with valuable

information about the existing addressing structure, possibly enabling them to

identify problems at an early stage.

It is important to invest enough time in the analysis because each detail should be

captured. The duration of this phase depends on the size of the existing environment,

the number of people assigned to the project, and the level of support from suppliers. It

can be as high as one year or more.

3. Once operators and providers have an overview of the existing environment and services

they can plan the implementation and migration. This consists of a number of activities:

Updating the service/marketing roadmap and strategy with IPv6. This includes

planning when services based on IPv6 should be available. It also includes the

planning of upgrades to existing services. This is particularly important when

customer-owned hardware and software is involved.

Updating the target architecture. The target architecture provides operators and

providers with an overview of all functions in their environment and the relationships

between these functions. This makes it easier for operators and providers to

synchronize implementation and migration activities internally and externally.

Developing the steps to migrate from the existing to the target architecture. Detecon

recommends that these steps are as small as possible to minimize risks.

Furthermore, operators and providers should make sure that this plan is aligned to

the service/marketing roadmap and strategy.

Careful planning of the implementation and migration will save time during the execution.

Hence it is important to invest time in this phase.

4. In the final phase the implementation and migration plan is executed. As in any project it

is likely that unforeseen situations will be encountered and the plan should be adapted

accordingly.






Reomme

oConclusion & Recommendations

In this executive briefing Detecon has highlighted that the depletion of IPv4 address space

requires the attention of providers and operators. It is predicted that the depletion will take

place somewhere in the spring of 2012. Detecon recommends that all involved market

players start the planning for the implementation of and migration to IPv6 as soon as

possible. Waiting will result in problems relating to:

Growing the customer base.

Introducing new services.

Managing and scaling the network.

Hence, it will impact future growth and might jeopardize future business.

The depletion of IPv4 address space can be compared to the millennium problem.

Therefore, we advise operators and providers to review the lessons learned in preparation

for the turn of the century. Migration to IPv6 is a task that should not be underestimated

because:

All hardware and software (both operator and customer owned) must support IPv6.

The networks that an IPv6-based operator connects to must support IPv6.

The operator’s staff must be trained in IPv6.

A network must allow the coexistence of IPv4 and IPv6.

It is recommended that all operators and providers set-up a multidisciplinary project team in

which all involved departments are represented. This project team should:

Analyze the existing network, OSS/BSS and (corporate) IT environment.

Plan the implementation of and migration to IPv6.

Execute the implementation plan.

The duration of this task depends on the size of the environment, the number of people

assigned to the project, and the level of vendor support. Operators and providers should,

however, expect durations of up to six years because execution requires high levels of

synchronization with organizations both within and outside the company. Furthermore, aswith any major change, Detecon recommends that operators and providers take small steps

in order to minimize the operational risks.






Glossary

ARIN American Registry for Internet Numbers

BSS Business Support Systems

IP Internet Protocol

IT Information Technology

OSS Operations Support Systems

RIPE Réseaux IP Européens

Country Codes

AU Australia IT Italy

BR Brazil JP Japan

CA Canada KR Korea

CN China MX Mexico

DE Germany NL Netherlands

ES Spain UK United Kingdom

EU Multiple countries in Europe US United States

FR France

ipv4 address depletion: a cto perspective (detecon executive briefing)

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