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COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models Prof. Xifeng Yan Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang Computer Science, UCSB

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Page 1: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models

Prof. Xifeng Yan

Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang Computer Science, UCSB

Page 2: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Introduction

2

Knowledge Base

Text Analysis

Time Series

Page 3: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Time Series Forecasting: A Long Standing Problem

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forecasting given history

Page 4: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Old Issues, New Technologies

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Amazon Ours

Our neural network approach, ConvTrans (NeurIPS 2019): • the state-of-the-art accuracy • a broad range of applications • deployed in leading industries

Page 5: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

We Flattened the Curve

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Page 6: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Not That Pessimistic

6 credit: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Page 7: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

But Hospitalization Is Rising

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from cnbc

Page 8: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Business Reopenning vs Protest

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Page 9: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Time Square @ New York City, June 23, 3:13pm

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Page 10: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Washington D.C.

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Page 11: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

NSF Rapid: Interventional COVID-19 Response Forecasting

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lock down

Page 12: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Interventional COVID-19 Response Forecasting

Factors: Demographic, population density, business structure, cultural, psychological factors and interventional policy differ across regions.

Different from the classic epidemic models like SIR for COVID-19, we develop a new type of data-driven forecasting models based on the lately developed deep learning techniques

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Page 13: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Factors

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Demographic

Population Density

Business Structure

Culture

Psychological

Contact Ratio

Infection Ratio

Hospitalization

ICU

Death

Disease Dynamics

Intervention

Page 14: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

COVID Forecasting

Different regions share COVID-19 trending pattern The spreading rate is

determined by common factors, such as social interactions and protections

To forecast cases in a

certain region, we can refer to other regions where pandemic starts earlier

Daily new cases 14

Page 15: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Find Similar Regions

For example, sharing similar factors : demographic, population density, business structure, social culture, psychological factors and interventional policy

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OR

Find regions whose trends look similar: All the

aforementioned factors have been priced in!

Page 16: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Similar historical pattern Similar future growth

Santa Barbara county is experiencing a new wave of COVID-19 spreading that resembles that in other regions e.g. Mexico in early June

history

growth

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Page 17: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Attention Mechanism

Regions

Time

z

reported cases in current region of

interest

reported cases in reference regions

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Page 18: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Neural Network Model

reported cases in current region of interest

reported cases in available reference regions

Processing a window of time series 1. Add factors 2. Use learnable convolution to

embed all the windows into vector representations (colored bars)

pairwise comparison b/w historical pattern representations

scores measuring pattern similarity

combination of

reference trends

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Page 19: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Identified References

For Santa Barbara County during 06/12 ~ 06/22 Most similar state: North Carolina during 03/31~04/10 Most similar counties in NC:

NC/Mecklenburg NC/Wake NC/Durham

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Page 20: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Forecasting Cases for Santa Barbara County

3-day-ahead forecast means the prediction for the date is made three days before

Next-week forecast is made on 06/26 for the next 7 days

RMSE MAPE RBF-SVM (autoregression)

180 0.072

SIR model

284 0.11

Attention 75.7 0.030

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Page 21: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Forecasting 14-day Moving Average of New Cases

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Page 22: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Daily Updated Trend @ Santa Barbara

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http://fts.cs.ucsb.edu/covid19

Page 23: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

7-Day Average @ Santa Barbara

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http://fts.cs.ucsb.edu/covid19

Page 24: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Intervention Strategy

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Demographic

Population Density

Business Structure

Culture

Psychological

Contact Ratio

Infection Ratio

Hospitalization

ICU

Death

Disease Dynamics

Intervention

Wearing a Mask

Social Distancing

Page 25: COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models . Prof. Xifeng Yan . Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang . Computer Science,

Q&A

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