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Jack Farrelly

How and why is trend forecasting utilised?

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Contents

 

1. Introduction

2. How and why are trends identified?

3. How and why does the industry utilise this information?

4. Fast and slow culture

5. How and why are tribes important?

6. Conclusion

7. Account of sources

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1. Introduction

 

This essay will examine the role advertising agencies and trend forecasters play in predicting

and tracking trends for their clients. In conjunction with this it will be important to examine exactly

how this information is utilised. Where the discipline sits in a wider cultural context is also important,

particularly, is it possible to use these forecasting methods to shed light on another area that maybe

of interest to agencies or clients? It will look at the implications of a focus on short term cultural

trends rather than long term sociological movements. This will lead into an examination of cultural

and social 'tribes', particularly why they are formed and how they may be influenced. It will look at

the role of trend forecasters and examine how they work, both inside and outside of agencies. How

can trends can be identified and tracked more effectively and the role does this has in influencing

brand strategy? Also, what role does the web play in both the formation and tracking of trends, both

in gathering data and the speed at which trends are born and subsequently evolve. The definition of a

trend is 'a general direction in which something is developing or changing' 1. It is important to examine

how advertising agencies, trend forecasters and cool hunters work within these guidelines, along with

their role in setting and dictating trends.

 

2. How and why are trends identified?

 

The ability to effectively identify and track emerging trends is important to any brand. New products

and services rely on their ability to ride a wave of current cultural and social momentum, in doing so

becoming a 'must have' or 'iconic' idea or object. Failing to spot emerging trends can cost brands

dear, both financially and in terms of a brand's reputation in a given sector. Levi's missed hip hop,

costing them a $1 billion, Quaker lacked the foresight to recognise the inflated value of the fruit juice

Snapple, costing them $1.4 billion2. Many brands like to see themselves as leaders in their field, as

cultural touch points of great importance to the people that buy their products. Marketing Directors,

Managing Directors and CEO's all live in the world of their brand, analysing it tirelessly, day and night.

Many overlook the wider cultural environment their products inhabit, how it fits into the busy, hectic

and ever changing lives of consumers. Advertising agencies and trend forecasters must see through

this clutter and find insights into how and why people are doing what they're doing. In addition, they

must use this data, along with a great deal of instinct and experience, to suggest what markets may

be doing in the future. It is vitally important that brands are able to look objectively at what they really

represent in the mind of the consumer, only then can brands hope to build on current perceptions and

identify the right direction for them.

 

1 Dictionary, Trend, <http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/trend>, 10/08/10

2 G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 1.

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Hip-hop culture makes its mark on fashion, Levi's fail to seize the opportunity 

© Cockroachpeople.com

 

How does the industry identify these holy grails, the trends that crash over modern culture like a

tidal wave. An approach being developed by the trend forecasting agency Canvas8 is the the cult

of the 'Thought Leader'3. The company employs the ideas and understanding of these gurus to

help solve their clients problems. The insight an external company like Canvas8 can provide is very

useful to agencies and brands. It is often assumed that advertising agencies have all the expertise a

brand would ever require in house. Modern agencies however must deal with such a large number of projects that they aren't always able to commit the required resources. This means companies like

Canvas8 can fill the void, drawing inspiration from a wide range of highly specialised experts. They

will spend time researching and analyzing the insights of these leaders, reporting back to agencies

with a thorough and insightful report. Canvas8 has also seen an opportunity in offering a cheaper 

and less bespoke service. Agencies are able to read less tailored but equally insightful reports on

the Canvas8 site, paying a monthly subscription for the privilege. They have identified that agencies

often lack the capabilities to perform the required research in the time they are given. Researching

trends in this outsourced fashion may be something that more agencies start to rely on, with Canvas8

effectively acting as a planning/strategy department for hire.

 

In the book Outliers4 Malcolm Gladwell examines a similar idea. Gladwell aims to decipher what we

can learn from unique individuals, people that sit outside of the norm. Looking at the a wide a range

of elements, he breaks down the factors that have contributed to their success. It may be useful for 

trend forecasters to try a similar approach, looking at culturally important outliers and retrospectively

examining the many elements that came together to make them so influential. This method could

also be applied to brands, it may be possible to glean insight from companies that managed to keep

up with a developing trend. What were the circumstances surrounding their cult status? Would it be

3 Nick Morris, Head of Trend Forecasting, Canvas8, interviewed 9/8/10

4 M Gladwell, Outliers, Penguin Books, United Kingdom, 2008, p. 3

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possible to manufacture a similar situation using modern methods? Could they seed an idea into a

social network and seeing what, if anything, gets a reaction from early adopters? This may be a way

to test ideas out on an open, diverse and reasonably receptive audience.

 

Another method for identifying emerging trends is posited by Grant McCracken in Chief Culture

Officer 5. McCracken recognises that businesses are missing out on billions of dollars in missed

opportunities. Society is also suffering, having to sift through a flood of poorly targeted, wasteful and

out of date propositions in search of an idea that really means something to them. It is proposed

that the CCO would act as a receptacle, taking on board and monitoring different aspects of modern

culture. Currently this role is only being performed in a unofficial capacity6 , with some companies

lucky enough to contain an Outlier or some other inspired individual with a vision. Most businesses

however struggle to keep up with cultural changes, often missing developments happening right

under their noses, only making a move when it's already too late. A good example of an unofficial

CCO is Dan Wieden, Creative Director at the influential advertising agency Wieden and Kennedy.

Wieden won his first major client, Nike, in the mid 1980s. Sports advertising at the time was

dominated by images of successful athletes, gods in a world of mere mortals. Nike and Reebok had

been in fierce competition for many years, dominating the market but unable to kill each other off.

Wieden's masterstroke would be to develop a slogan that set Nike apart from the competition for 

decades to come. Wieden spotted a trend, people struggling to get off the sofa, always coming up

with an excuse not to exercise, lacking the commitment to go out and buy the sports equipment they

needed. Wieden developed a new approach to sports advertising, changing the industry forever.

The spearhead of Wieden's attack on the consumer was his revolutionary new slogan. 'Just Do It'

was combative, aggressive and impatient. It confronted the consumer, challenging them to drop the

excuses. This idea has led Nike's advertising and branding for many years, setting them apart from

the crowd. Reebok now employ 8,000 people7 , Nike is now the market leader, employing 30,000

worldwide and generating a revenue $18.6 billion last year 8 . Nike were lucky to find Dan Wieden,

many companies are not so fortunate. McCracken argues that a CCO can give companies a head

start in the field of trend forecasting, taking serendipity out of the process. McCracken's ideas on

trends are certainly compelling, confirming that trend identification is an integral part of any business.

 

5 G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 13

6 G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 17

7 Reebok Corporation, <http://corporate.reebok.com/en/about_reebok/faq_section/general_questions/

#How%20many%20employees%20does%20Reebok%20have?> , 12/08/108 Nike, Inc., Wikipedia,

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nike,_Inc.>, 12/08/10

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Wieden's tag line inspiring Wayne Rooney and England 

© Nike 

Another method of Trend Forecasting is a controversial technique known as crowdsourcing. The

phrase crowdsourcing was coined by Jeffery Howe, in an article for Wired in 2006. He describes the

process as "taking a job traditionally performed by a designated employee and outsourcing it to an

undefined, generally large group"9. Examples of crowdsourcing are all around us, the massively

popular X-Factor  is an example of a record company using crowdsourcing in search of a star. The

website iStockphoto, which sources all its images from amateur photographers, is another.

iStockphoto has undercut the professional alternatives, charging $1 for the use of an image instead of 

$300. This controversial practice is now being seen in trend forecasting and advertising. Recently the

agency AMVBBDO ran the 'King of ads' competition for young, creatively minded people. Competitors

up-loaded their ideas onto the Doritos YouTube channel where they were judged by the agency, the

winning proposal being professionally produced and run worldwide10. Another example of 

crowdsourcing's prevalence in the creative sector is the company Frog Design11. Frog Design is a

global innovation company that is attempting to utilise the power of crowdsourcing in a new and

original way. Recently they launched frogMob, a crowdsourcing facility and 'guerrilla research’12 unit

tasked with gaining insight from Frog Design’s tribe of followers. It asks users to upload there

photographic ephemera based on a given topic, for example 'power' or 'work bikes'.The images

submitted vary in quality; taken together, however, they build up a compelling story. It is fascinating tosee what people have chosen to include in the images, what they want the world to think of them. The

way images have been cropped and edited says as much as the content of the images themselves.

The analysts at frogMob examine the images looking for insights into how people interact with objects.

These findings will then inform the design work carried out for their clients. This more

indie, "lightweight"13 approach may grow in popularity, utilising tribes to good affect.

9 Blur Group, What is crowdsourcing , <http://what-is-crowdsourcing.com>, 16/08/10

1 Doritos, King of ads - Competition rules, <http://kingofads.doritos.co.uk/terms.html>, 16/08/10

1 Frog Design, Frog Mob, <http://frogmob.frogdesign.com>, 16/08/10

1 Frog Design, Frog Mob, <http://frogmob.frogdesign.com>, 16/08/10

1 Frog Design, Frog Mob, <http://frogmob.frogdesign.com/what-is-frogmob.html>, 17/08/10

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Crowdsourcing is still highly controversial, exploitation or opportunity? 

© Doritos

 

An interview with the Nick Morris, Head of Trend Forecasting at Canvas814, gave some insight into

the day to day business of recognising trends. Nick said that he mainly "just kept his eyes open", his

 job is to observe. "We will identify a number of trends and track where they are in their life-time, once

we have an idea of what is happening we will link trends and place the smaller ones under umbrella's,

like 'BrandMe' for example." Nick also mentions that it is not something you can plan extensively for 

beforehand, "the aim is to be forward thinking, if we see something happening we must be ready to

 jump, without making any grand statements about where the trend may be going. In the long run, this

would erode confidence". "I try to keep myself plugged into what is going on and use my experience

to look deeper at what is really happening, and what may happen next" he says. Nick's method of 

identifying trends on a micro level, placing these into broader groups and developing a number of 

movements is a logical approach.

 

Search engines and social networks are another resource for trend forecasters to exploit. They hold

a massive amount of information on their users, which is auctioned off to advertisers and marketers

looking for more targeted communications. Trend forecasting also uses the wealth of data held by

Twitter, Facebook, Google and others. The fast paced nature of the 'Twitter-sphere' allows its users

to be aware of trends emerging in the blink of an eye. Whether it's as inconsequential as a funny

new video, or as ground breaking as the reports from inside Iran during the recent protests15, Twitter 

is starting to become the place where young people go for their information. On Twitter, as well as

other social networking sites, there is a lot of social kudos attached to being the first amongst your 

group to share something interesting and new. This is what trend forecasters attempt to utilise, they

1

Nick Morris, Head of Trend Forecasting, Canvas8, interviewed 9/8/101 The Washington Times, Iran's Twitter Revolution, <http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/

 jun/16/irans-twitter-revolution/>, 20/08/10

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may be able to monitor what is 'trending'16 and deduce what people are feeling passionate about.

If forecasters look beyond the surface of the topic, they may discover that something which seems

inconsequential and lightweight is actually symptomatic of a deeper trend. In the future this realtime

analysis may become the main weapon in the arsenal of marketers, having a direct line to their 

consumer's needs and desires. 

3. How and why does the industry utilise this information?

 

This chapter will explore the application and effective use of trend insights, why is it important for 

brands and how its utilised in practice. Once trends have been successfully identified, categorised

and linked to larger movements, what can be done with this information? To decipher the deeper 

implications of trends, marketers, advertisers and forecasters must be able to justify there findings.

The job of the advertising agency planning department is to convince clients, creatives and

consumers to follow them on a journey and sign up to a movement. The trend information will aid

these departments in proving their point, making clients, and others, see what is happening in a wider 

cultural context. Yearning to form and follow groups is part of our nature, Mark Earls says, "The true

nature of mankind is that of a super social ape", "we feel happier with others; our brains develop

through interaction"17 . Trends are merely groups beginning to form, if brands can utilise their trend

information with foresight, they may be able to become an integral part of these groups, involved in

an interaction between brand and consumer. If companies are unable to turn insight into business,

they may be in danger of being left behind, unable to regenerate with new social and cultural

movements. Trend watcher Michael Tchong says simply "Catch the next wave before it catches

you"18.

Trend forecasting has the potential to revitalise any brand that can utilise the information effectively.

Having an insight however, is only the start of the process. There is still a great deal of work to be

done, and risk to be managed, both with a brand's finances and reputation. So why is it necessary

to put your reputation on the line, why can't a good product be a good product forever? There are a

number of reasons why standing still is as good as going backwards. Firstly, commercial success

is made possible by a large number of variable factors. Loosely described by the fashion company

Trendstop as "the right product, at the right time, in the right place offered to the right audience"19 .

The problem with variables is that they change, and when they do, brands can seem out of touch. The

more change, the more detached a brand appears to be.

 

This element of timing is vitally important, missing out on a trend used to take years of ignorance,

now a fatal lapse in concentration can prove decisive in a matter of days. Ian Davis, MD of McKinsey

& Company puts it simply, "Companies that ride the currents succeed; those that swim against them

1 Twitter Help Centre, About Trending Topics,

<http://support.twitter.com/articles/101125-about-trending-topics>, 20/08/10

1 M Earls, Herd , Wiley Publications, Great Britain, 2009, p. 21

1 Michael Chong, Ubercool, <http://ubercool.com/>, 21/08/10

1 Trendstop, Productive, <http://www.trendstop.com/contents>, 21/08/10

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usually struggle. Identifying these currents and developing strategies to navigate them is vital"20 .

Brands must be reactive and guerrilla in their approach to business and marketing. Adaptability is

what brands and advertising agencies aim for, if they continue to do things like they always have

done, the consumer may prove too nimble. Using these techniques a brand is able to quickly 'counter 

possible threats' and 'capitalise on opportunities'21

Brands must be focused on which trends affect them specifically, what is really important and

what is a fad. Brands will not be able to follow everything emerging out of modern culture, they must

quantify which trends apply to them and which will have an affect on their business. Despite this,

there are still advantages for those which can follow multiple trends. This is because it allows trends

to be compared and put into a wider context. What links to what? How does this trend affect what is

happening in this area of society? There are many important questions that can only be answered

by having a wide view of the trends you are following. This context will allow brands to place trends

in 'commercial terms'22 and have a better idea of what is important.

 

Trend Forecasting is a multi-faceted discipline, it can be used to develop ideas that will dictate

a brands strategic direction for the next ten years, or it can be used to ensure a specific piece of 

communication reaches the right people. Trend Forecasting's role in the development of short-

term branded communications is often overlooked. Trend Forecasting can help companies judge

the tone of their communications, a sentiment expressed in a tweet by Contagious Magazine, 'Be

useful, be relevant, be entertaining’23. Effective Trend Forecasting helps brands to be all of these,

allowing advertisers and brands to be more sophisticated in the way they approach the consumer.

A paper released by Syncapse, a digital communications and social media consultancy, attempts to

quantify 'The Value Of A Facebook Fan'24. They believe Facebook is finally 'maturing' into a 'viable

marketing and customer service channel'25. On average a consumer who is a fan of a brand on

Facebook will spend and additional '$71.84'26 on the brands products. Facebook Fans are also '41%

more likely to recommend a fanned product to their friends'27. These numbers show the importance

of understanding the culture and behaviour of a target market. Trend forecasting is an important tool

for brands seeking to gain insight into their consumers lives. The more brands can do this, the more

relevant, useful and entertaining they can be.

 

2 Ian Davis, The McKinsey Quarterly, <http://www.bmacewen.com/blog/pdf/

McKinsey.2006.January.TenTrends.pdf>, 21/08/10

2 Infomat, Guide to trend forecasting, <http://www.infomat.com/fido/getarticle.fcn?

&type=guides&SearchString=trend+forecasting&id=737870PT0000061&start=1&tr=1> 20/08/10

2 Infomat, Guide to trend forecasting, <http://www.infomat.com/fido/getarticle.fcn?

&type=guides&SearchString=trend+forecasting&id=737870PT0000061&start=1&tr=1> 20/08/10

2 Twitter, ContagiousMag , <https://twitter.com/contagiousmag>, 02/10/10

2 Syncapse, The Empirical Value of a Facebook Fan, 2010, p. 1

2 Syncapse, The Empirical Value of a Facebook Fan, 2010, p. 4

2 Syncapse, The Empirical Value of a Facebook Fan, 2010, p. 4

2 Syncapse, The Empirical Value of a Facebook Fan, 2010, p. 4

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How not to do it: Habitat attempt to force their brand on people discussing the protests surrounding 

the Iranian presidential elections

© Mashable.com

 

Herd by Mark Earls re-enforces the importance and potential power of Trend Forecasting. The book

examines how the human race has developed as a community driven species, an important factor 

to consider when brands are looking to predict and influence consumer behaviour. As an example,

Earls recounts the public hysteria surrounding the death of Princess Diana. Earls believes the 'The

cellotaph phenomenon'28 (saying it with flowers, in this case leaving flowers as a form of condolence)

was at its height in the weeks after Princess Diana's death. Millions of people all of the country, for 

some reason, decided that laying flowers in remembrance of Diana, was something they should do.

Earls uses a conversation with a friend as an example, he asked why she had given up her lunch

hour to lay flowers outside Kensington Palace, she replied "I want to...you know, be part of this...to

show my respect, too...with the others"29 . Earls claims that "these shrines are a monument to our 

social nature", "individuals follow the example of others around them"30. These insights only add

weight to the perceived value of trend forecasting. Earls belief that behaviour is driven by other peopleand not “extra-human forces like economics, traumatic events or intentional activity like branding”31 

helps to justify the importance of the profession. Trend Forecasters can be the consumer, following

the collective consciousness of the public. Experienced advertisers and large corporations have a

totally different lifestyle to the people they are trying to sell to. Earls research shows how important it

is for Trend Forecasters to be able to bridge this gap.

 

2 M Earls, Herd , Wiley Publications, Great Britain, 2009, p. 4

2 M Earls, Herd , Wiley Publications, Great Britain, 2009, p. 5

3 M Earls, Herd , Wiley Publications, Great Britain, 2009, p. 6

3 M Earls, Herd , Wiley Publications, Great Britain, 2009, p. 6

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The scene outside Kensington Palace following the death of Princess Diana

© Fiona Hanson/PA.

 

Trend Forecasting can be a lengthy, expensive and difficult process, however, brands can expect

to benefit in two main ways. Firstly, being aware of and active within modern culture makes a

brand seem more relevant and cool, therefore increasing the amount people will be willing to pay

to be a associated with the brand. Secondly and quite simply, having a head start on an emerging

trend allows a brand more time to get a suitable product/service to market32

. Being first is veryimportant, 'First-Mover Advantage'33 means that a brand can dominate a given space inside the mind

of the consumer. Think touch screen mobile phone, think iPhone. Think online social networking,

think Facebook. Apples latest release is another example, the iPad was the first modern tablet

computer when it was released in the United States in April 2010. Sales of the iPad have been

steady, it has not however been a massive commercial success34. To Apple this is inconsequential,

since the iPad's release Dell, Blackberry and Samsung have all rushed out similar machines, making

them look like followers, not leaders. The iPad has proved an excellent branding tool. By successfully

identifying emerging trends, brands can utilise these insights to gain an important competitive edge.

They can enter a market whilst it is still in rapid growth, having making valuable profits before theindustry is commoditised. Advertisers and trend forecasters will be able to tap into the spirit of a

movement, advising brands in how this can be turned into financial gain.

 

4. Fast and slow culture

 

3 Trendstop, Productive, <http://www.trendstop.com/contents>, 21/08/10

3 Pearson Education, First-Mover Advantage, <http://www.pearsoned.co.uk/Bookshop/article.asp?

item=312>, 2/10/103 Techcrunch, Does the iPad change everything?, <http://techcrunch.com/2010/06/17/does-the-ipad-

change-everything-publishers-chime-in/> 21/08/10

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It has long been assumed that trends fall into two types, they are either here today gone tomorrow

fads, which pass by so quickly that they are barely worth mentioning, or long-term sociological and

anthropological trends that intellectuals agonise over. The short-term trend is sneered upon by the

intelligentsia, the long-term trend dismissed by the fashionable cool hunter. Trend forecasters must be

able to operate between both disciplines, recognising the significance of both, but never allowing their 

clients to be seen to jump on a band wagon. Long-term trends give insights into what is important

to human beings, short-term trends show what the latest manifestation of these behaviours is. This

chapter will examine the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches, looking at possible ways that

they can be linked and how the trend forecaster can utilise both disciplines to predict behaviour.

 

Grant McCracken in Chief Culture Officer 35 attempts to redefine both strands of research. He

suggests that we stop looking at trend forecasting in terms of short-term fads and long-term trends,

instead suggesting the problem should be thought of as 'slow culture' and 'fast culture'. These

descriptions are far more usable, representing what each industry is really concerned with. His

definition of 'slow culture' gives an insight into what he believes trend forecasters should be doing.

Slow culture isn't fashionable or sexy, or as McCracken says, it is topics like these "That separate

the CCO's (chief culture officers) who are moved by genuine curiosity about their culture, from those

who are merely in it for the really stylish eye-ware"36 . Slow culture gets at our deepest desires, how

we really think of ourselves in relation to our friends, family and environment. Fast culture examines

the outward projections of these feelings, what differentiates someone who drives a Vauxhall from

someone who drives an Audi. It is fast culture which attracts the most attention, because it's "visible,

vivid, obvious and yes, fashionable"37 .

 

An example of slow culture used by Mcracken is 'homeyness'. Homeyness as a concept is very

difficult to understand when thinking in terms of fast moving cultural trends, the way most people

set out and adorn their homes is nothing to with the fashions identified in Wallpaper 38 and Elle

Decoration39. Despite this, it is the idea of 'homeyness' that has had such a large effect on what

people put in their houses. Notions of being the 'home-maker' can influence whether people are

considered 'mothers or wives', 'fathers or husbands'40. This is an example of short-term trends falling

short, it is impossible to explain these behaviors by looking at fast moving cool culture. McCracken

uses a simple analogy to explain this idea, take the phrase "You bet your life". To people who have

grown up with and developed the required understanding of the English language, interpreting the

round-about statement is no problem. If however you were from another country and this phrase

was translated into your native tongue, it would make no sense. This is because we see words, just

like homes, with an enormous amount of cultural baggage that helps us delineate the meanings and

behaviours implied. An understanding of slow cultural trends requires this deep investigation and is an

area often overlooked by modern advertisers and brand builders.

3 G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 41

3 G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 46

3 G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 44

3 Wallpaper Magazine, <http://www.wallpaper.com/> 21/08/10

3 Elle Decoration, <http://www.elledecor.com/>, 21/08/10 

4 G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 46

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Elle Decoration, a shining example of fast culture

© Elle Decoration

 

Fast culture, despite seeming light-weight in comparison is equally important. Trends and culture

move at a more rapid pace now than at any other time in human history, brands exist at the pinnacle

of the communications revolution, this means being wired into fast culture is hugely important.

Alvin Toffler published Future Shock in 1970, in the book he says "We have not merely extended

the scope and scale of change, we have radically altered its pace. We have in our time released

a totally new social force - a stream of change so accelerated that it influences our sense of time,

revolutionizes the tempo of daily life affects the way we 'feel' the world around us"41. Technology has

made massive leaps since the time Toffler is describing and the affect it is having on businesses

and brands is even more severe. Fast culture is all about change, an idea posited by McCracken

is that culture is 'hyperactive'42, to understand what triggers fast culture trend forecasters must

understand the layers of slow culture hidden beneath. McCracken also relates brands to "a fishing

boat, pitching on the high seas, wave after wave crashing through the wheelhouse" 43. Due to cultures

hyperactivity, trend forecasters must not get to bogged in any aspect or element of fast culture, they

must not however ignore it. Fast culture can be where the big profits are made, Craig Newmark of 

Craigslist44 and Arianna Huffington of The Huffington Post45 understand this, having seen new trends

in technology that would enable them to poach business from massive international corporations.

Trends of either variety are obviously having a greater and greater impact on businesses, the more

the world speeds up the more trends there will be to keep track of.

 

4 A Toffler, Future Shock , Bantam Books, United States of America, 1970, p. 2

4 G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 52

4 G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 53

4 Craigslist.com, <http://london.craigslist.co.uk/>22/08/10

4 The Huffington Post, <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/>22/08/10

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These ideas are symptomatic of the fast paced culture being spread by social networks. Twitter 

is the antithesis of slow culture, creating an atmosphere of instantaneous information. Twitter users

are concerned with being up to the second. Important social kudos is put at risk by mentioning or 're-

tweeting' something that is just a few minutes old. Twitter works by encouraging users to follow

influential people, this has resulted in many trend forecasters all tracking the same individuals. This

has put the emphasis onto swift analysis, with everyone able to access information as quickly as

their rivals. In a way, the decentralisation of information has had a liberating effect. It is now possible

for an individual to gain access to information at the same time as any traditionally influential media

institution. There is, of course, a danger inherent in the speed of modern communication, forcing

trend forcasters to follow and analyse areas which may, under greater scrutiny, not be worthy of the

attention. This sentiment is expressed clearly by The Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee, in a Podcast

discussing recent allegations about a member of the Conservative cabinet she said; "now it seems

that once something is out there on a blog, within a very short space of time the newspapers feel

obliged, goodness knows why, to put it into print as well"46. This atmosphere of paranoia is palpable

within trend forecasting and advertising, with everyone scared of getting left behind.

 

The infamous Guido Fawkes' blog has beaten the mainstream media to many stories

© order-order.com

 

It is interesting to note just how much emphasis is put on blogs and twitter as a research resource.

Many companies employ people to scour these sites full time, ensuring that nothing is missed.

Insights gained in this way are then analysed for any implications they may have for wider cultural

trends. If it is clear that a particular blog article is tapping into or utilising a trend, then an evaluation

4 P Toynbee, Politics Weekly , The Guardian, United Kingdom, 02/09/10

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process will take place. An editor or senior forecaster will attmpt to place the findings within a

global context, allowing researchers to find information that supports the hypothesis. Once this

supporting material is found, an analysis can take place, linking the insight to other trends and noting

its implications for businesses. These ideas are then gathered into a larger, more comprehensive

document that is released to clients for their consideration.

 

An example of this process can be seen in the 'Volkswagen: True Life Costs'47 article on the website

of the Trend Forecasting agency Canvas8. In an interview with Debbi Evans, the Canvas8 Editor 48,

I asked how she decides if something is worthy of analysis. Using the 'Volkswagen: True Life Costs'

article as a case study, she took me through the process. "The article was picked up by researcher 

as something that may be of interest, with links to our trend document" she said. I asked who decides

what is important and should be written about, she said that "If a researcher feels particularly strongly

about an idea, we generally let them go for it". It is however Debbi who has the final say, having to

 justifty how the article will be of interest to clients. Once this dialogue has taken place, she says "we

attempt to find other examples of similar trends to put it into context". The researcher will have to

analyse the findings, "looking for any possible insight or opportunity for business". The full 'Focus

Piece' will then go live on the site, for clients to view. She also says, "We have to very careful about

publishing articles that are not up to the minute, if a client sees anything they have seen before, we

have failed in our task." This sentiment links to Twitter and the speed that new ideas travel, Trend

Forecaster's may struggle to justify their title if everyone has access to this source of new information.

 

5. How and why are tribes important?

 

Human beings have always formed tribes, in the past the formation of a tribe was purely down

to geographical location. Today tribes are formed through shared interests, the web has made

geography effectively irrelevant, allowing connections with like-minded people the world over. In his

latest book Tribes: We Need You To Lead Us, Seth Godin explains "A group needs only two things to

be a tribe: a shared interest and a way to communicate"49. Trend forecasters are increasingly aware

of the impact tribes can have on brands and branding. These tribes always require leaders, these are

the people trend forecasters are observing to get a hold on what may happen next in a given sector.

The internet has allowed tribes to gain more and more influence, allowing them to communicate over 

great distances effortlessly. The internet and modern culture has also meant that people today have

a much more diverse range of interests than they would have done 50 years ago, with information so

readily accessible.

 

Most leaders of tribes are quite unlikely characters, people well known within their area of expertise,

but very rarely known to outsiders. An example used by Godin is that of software programmer 

and businessman Joel Spolsky50. To people with an interest in small businesses and computer 

4 J Farrelly, Volkswagen: True Life Costs, Canvas8, United Kingdom, <http://www.canvas8.com/

content/2010/09/28/true-life-costs.html>, 28/09/10

4 Debbi Evans, Editor, Canvas8, interviewed 09/08/10

4 S Godin, Tribes: We Need You To Lead Us, Portfolio, United States of America, 2008, p. 1

5 S Godin, Tribes: We Need You To Lead Us, Portfolio, United States of America, 2008, p. 1

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programming Joel is an important trendsetter, much more so than Bill Gates or Mark Zuckerburg.

Joel runs a small software company in New York and has a passion for telling people about it. His

real area of interest is how to run a small business, and people the world over flood to his website

for help and inspiration. Most people will not have heard of Joel Spolsky and never will, but within his

tribe of followers he is the small business guru. This is what makes these groups so interesting, they

are going on all over the world, completely unnoticed by the majority. The world of communication

is becoming more specialised and focused, with the internet we are cutting out conversations with

people who won't understand us, heading straight for the people who speak our language. Although

this does have some slightly worrying implications regarding our ability to interact with people outside

our interest group, it does represent a change in who we look up to in society. Although celebrity

culture is undoubtedly still influential, there also appears to be a craving for leaders who have more

niche interests.

 

Joel Spolsky, a leader to small business owners all over the world 

© Founders at Work 

 These developments obviously have big implications for trend forecasters, who are beginning to

worry about the emergence of unknown leaders of very specific tribes. Trend forecasters will have

to work hard to find who is really pulling the cultural strings, no longer just looking at big figures

in technology and media. Steve Jobs may be a very powerful man in the world of branding and

computing, but to small businessman interested in programming, Joel Spolsky is the one to follow.

Tribes may start to have an effect on the way we market products and services to these disparate

groups of people. We have already seen brands attempting to gain traction in the blogger-sphere,

paying huge amounts of money for everyday people to try out their products and then blog about it

for their tribe of online followers. Trend forecasters are having to be more aware of where the latest

influences are coming from. Luckily for trend forecasters these tribes are not exclusive. Anyone can

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 join, so long as you can speak the language. 

6. Conclusion

 

This essay has examined the numerous and varied ways in which trends are identified and

subsequently tracked. This has led to an analysis of the importance of modern day trend forecasting,

reviewing the influence of the leading figures in today’s advertising and branding industries. Dan

Wieden is an excellent example of a trend forecaster who gains insight by observing the minutiae

of everyday behaviour. Grant McCracken describes how people like Dan Wieden are best utilised

and makes the case for someone with similar instinct and experience in every organisation. Malcolm

Gladwell also has some interesting ideas about where brands should go if they are in need of some

cultural stimulus. His ideas, based on tracking people who exist outside of mainstream society and

culture, are backed up by other observations on the nature of tribes. An understanding of tribes may

prove to be a very important step for brands and trend forecasters to take, especially when taking into

account the disparate and fragmented sub-cultures being exhibited by the young people of today.

Mark Earls has taken these observations further, looking at the creation of mass movements within

society. His attempts to explain these phenomena, attributing them to the human need to follow and

engage with other people. This may have important implications for the way brands communicate with

consumers.

 

It is also interesting to examine the way a modern trend forecasting agency operates in practice,

Canvas8 is an example of a company that has to move quickly to stay current. Twitter’s role in trend

forecasting is a slightly unexpected but very important development. The platform is tailor made for 

fast updates and the speedy formation of online movements. Social networks represent both a usefultool and possible threat, with so many people having access to information instantaneously, it has

become more difficult for trend forecasters to gain unique insights. Fast culture is gaining more and

more traction within branding and trend forecasting, with agencies looking for instant results. Although

this is a challenging development, this trend towards fast culture is taken directly from society itself.

Brands are having to move incredibly quickly just to keep up with the modern, connected consumer.

 

Trend forecasting as a discipline, like every area of branding and advertising, will have to adapt to

stay current. Trend forecasting is certainly getting more difficult, the speed of communication today

means companies can do everything right, put in all the work, and still miss out on a culture shock.The essay has looked at the sort of trends that are influencing us, what effect tribes have, how and

why businesses utilise the information unearthed by trend forecasters and how these cultural insights

are uncovered. Trend forecasting, cool hunting, anthropology, sociology and advertising planning

are all becoming more and more entwined. This is leading to far more interesting and original work,

benefiting brands, agencies and consumers.

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7. Account of Sources

Bibliography

 

G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 1

 

M Gladwell, Outliers, Penguin Books, United Kingdom, 2008, p. 3

 

G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 13

 

G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 17

 

M Earls, Herd , John Wiley & Sons, United Kingdon, 2009, p. 21

 

M Earls, Herd , John Wiley & Sons, United Kingdom, 2009, p.4

 

M Earls, Herd , John Wiley & Sons, United Kingdom, 2009, p. 5

 

M Earls, Herd , John Wiley & Sons, United Kingdom, 2009, p. 6

 

M Earls,Herd , John Wiley & Sons, United Kingdom, 2009, p. 6

 

G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 41

 

G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 46

 

G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 44

 

G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 46

 

A Toffler, Future Shock , Bantam Books, United States of America, 1970, p. 2

 G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 52

 

G McCracken, Chief Culture Officer , Basic Books, United States of America, 2009, p. 53

 

S Godin, Tribes: We Need You To Lead Us, Portfolio, United States of America, 2008, p. 1

 

S Godin, Tribes: We Need You To Lead Us, Portfolio, United States of America, 2008, p. 1

 

Interviews 

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Nick Morris, Head of Trend Forecasting, Canvas8, interviewed 9/8/10 

Debbi Evans, Editor, Canvas8, interviewed 09/08/10

 

Webography

 

Dictionary, Trend , <http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/trend>, 10/08/10

 

Reebok Corporation, <http://corporate.reebok.com/en/about_reebok/faq_section/general_questions/

#How%20many%20employees%20does%20Reebok%20have?> , 12/08/10

 

Wikipedia, Nike Inc., <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nike,_Inc.>, 12/08/10

 

Doritos, King of ads - Competition rules, <http://kingofads.doritos.co.uk/terms.html>, 16/08/10

 

Michael Chong, Ubercool, <http://ubercool.com/>, 21/08/10

 

Trendstop, Productive, <http://www.trendstop.com/contents>, 21/08/10

 

Wallpaper Magazine, <http://www.wallpaper.com/> 21/08/10

 

Elle Decoration, <http://www.elledecor.com/>, 21/08/10

 

Craigslist.com, <http://london.craigslist.co.uk/>, 22/08/10 

The Huffington Post, <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/>, 22/08/10

 

Web Articles

 

Blur Group, What is crowdsourcing , <http://what-is-crowdsourcing.com>, 16/08/10

 

Infomat, Guide to trend forecasting , <http://www.infomat.com/fido/getarticle.fcn?

&type=guides&SearchString=trend+forecasting&id=737870PT0000061&start=1&tr=1> 20/08/10 

Infomat, Guide to trend forecasting , <http://www.infomat.com/fido/getarticle.fcn?

&type=guides&SearchString=trend+forecasting&id=737870PT0000061&start=1&tr=1> 20/08/10

 

Pearson Education, First-Mover Advantage, <http://www.pearsoned.co.uk/Bookshop/article.asp?

item=312>, 2/10/10

 

J Farrelly, Volkswagen: True Life Costs, Canvas8, United Kingdom, <http://www.canvas8.com/

content/2010/09/28/true-life-costs.html>, 28/09/10

 

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Social Networks 

Twitter, ContagiousMag , <https://twitter.com/contagiousmag>, 02/10/10

 

Podcasts

 

P Toynbee, Politics Weekly , The Guardian, United Kingdom, 02/09/10

 

Research Papers

 

Ian Davis, The McKinsey Quarterly , <http://www.bmacewen.com/blog/pdf/

McKinsey.2006.January.TenTrends.pdf>, 21/08/10

 

Syncapse, The Empirical Value of a Facebook Fan, 2010, p. 1

 

Syncapse, The Empirical Value of a Facebook Fan, 2010, p. 2

 

Syncapse, The Empirical Value of a Facebook Fan, 2010, p. 4

 

Syncapse, The Empirical Value of a Facebook Fan, 2010, p. 4