Alexzandra Lizama Forecasting For Product Development London College of Fashion Spring 2014

Part One: Relevant Terms for Trend Forecasting

Why is it important to trend forecast for product development? Trend forecasting is essential for the process of product development because when developing products, the main focus must always be what is going to sell well in the future. In order to determine what types of designs, styles, colors, and fabrics to use for the products that are in the process of development, trend forecasting must be used to find out what the consumers will want to be buying when these products will be released. Trend forecasting helps guarantee good sales and profits for coming seasons.

What is intellectual intuition? Intellectual intuition is essentially a fact-driven hypothesis on what trends will become popular in upcoming seasons. Intuition is your individual inclination towards a trend based on your previous knowledge and heart. To make this intellectual, the trend forecast must be validated in some manner based on previous sales analysis and using cultural cues to predict what will be the next up and coming trendy styles.

What is cultural triangulation? Defined by Martin Raymond, cultural triangulation is the interaction between intuition, or your raw talent, observation, using ethnographic and interrogative studies and interrogation using qualitative and quantitative analysis from both primary and secondary research. Thus, you are using a combination of cultural information sources to help predict future trends.

Trend trackingTrend tracking is the process of searching for the trends within fashion and culture. In order to trendtrack, you must follow both fashion and culture blogs, magazines, explore ‘trendy’ areas of cities and find out what trend hosts and cool people are doing in all major fashion cities of the world. An example of trend tracking would be wandering the back streets of Soho and detecting similarities in the styles developing.

Cool HuntingCool Hunting is finding the ‘cool’ people rather than searching for trends. The cool and trendy people tend to be cultural leaders, and thus they will lead you to the up and coming trends. Trends do not have a stable basis without ‘cool’ people being early adopters. Therefore, by finding who is cool, you will find out what the next cool thing will be. This is an essential concept to understand in order to successfully trend track. By going to Shoreditch and Dalston, you can find the natural leaders that begin the trends in places, styles and culture.

3 Times RuleThe three times rule is a method of proving that a trend is valid and relevant. To do this, you must find three examples with noticeable characteristics of the trend in different non-related areas such as fashion, architecture, music, art, and interior design. For example when doing a three times rule analysis of ombre, you could find three examples in hair, three examples in purses, and three examples in nail design and makeup to prove that the trend is relevant.

Cross Cultural AnalysisCross-Cultural Analysis is the process of looking outside of the immediate fashion market for trends and cultural cues. It is a process of ‘thinking outside of the box’ by looking for cultural brailling, or trending bumps, across different industry sectors to determine if a trend spotted in one industry is emerging in various others. An example of cross-cultural analysis would have been recognizing that the transparency trend within technology and architecture had great potential to trickle down into fashion trends.

The Immediate PictureThe immediate picture is a short-sighted approach to fashion, and the way that the average consumer views it. It is what is popular and trendy and right now. The problem is that product development happens far in advance rather than in the immediate time period. To see the immediate picture among young women in London, I can walk into Topshop and analyze the current trends that the average consumer in this age group is coveting.

The Bigger Picture The bigger picture is looking past what is happening right now to see how trends and culture are evolving and emerging. When looking at the bigger picture, an analysis of the current political, economic, social and technological environment will help determine what the next big things are going to be. This ‘bigger picture’ of fashion and trends will help you trend forecast what will be popular in upcoming seasons. It is essential to look at the bigger picture during the process of product development to have valid evidence of what is likely to sell well, therefore ensuring good sales and profits in the long run. For example, when the worldwide economic crisis occurred in 2007, trend immediately headed towards minimalistic styles and quality that lasts for several seasons rather than buying show-y fast fashion that goes out of style. Looking at the bigger picture would mean that I would detect this gradual change before and as it was happening.

In relation to a fashion collection- what is historical evidence? why is this used? Historical evidence is a series of number patterns on what styles, colors, patterns, and fabrics have sold well in previous seasons. It is used to help better understand a company’s target market and what they like. However, the ‘trendier’ a store, the less historical evidence should influence future lines. This is because these stores have consumers who want the what is the newest trendy item, which tends to be different from season to season. Despite this, it is still an essential part of trend forecasting and product development for all brands and companies. A perfect example of this comes from a store I work at, Lucky Brand Jeans. They carry many different jean fits designed for different body types. The information about how well each fit sells is essential for creating the new lines and subsequently deciding which fits to carry on and which to discontinue.

Part II: Photographic Inspiration: The Palace of VersaillesWandering the halls of the Palace of Versailles is an

unforgettable experience. Each detail of the walls, ceilings, and vast decoration was made with exquisite detail and intensive labor. The Baroque style architecture, heavy gold ornamentation, and extravagant character have inspired the tales of aristocracy that surround French culture.

The Palace of Versailles, Versailles France

This fixated shot of a doorframe detailing shows the smooth

flowing texture and beauty that went into every stroke of

carving and paint. I fell in love with the soft licks of glossy gold and sky blue leafing, and chose to work this for its decadence

and allure.

Therefore, in my storyboard on the following slide, I aimed to capture the ornate elegance through color scheme involving gold leafing with sky blue, cream and black accents. Baroque inspiration has gone in and out of popularity, with Jody Parchment MA collection bringing baroque architecture to the forefront in 2010 with the platform shoes shown. For spring/ summer 2012 Versace did a gold leafed corset-dress that was kept modern by its transparency. In Autumn/ Winter 2012, Baroque inspired runway looks showed up everywhere, as seen by Lanvin’s sky blue and gold embroidery on a cream dress, Balmain’s extravagant and structured 3/4 shirt with heavy gold, black, and sky blue ornamentation, Vivienne Westwood’s sky blue and gold embellished dress with a soft and flowy silhouette, and Dolce and Gabanna’s black sunglasses with heavy gold leafing on the rims. Currently, Valentin Yudashkin has found inspiration for her Spring/ Summer 2014 collection from Baroque, creating a modern spin on the traditional look with sequining, transparency, and a deep V at the décolletage.

Bal

main A/

W2012

Jody Parchment MA 2010

Dolce & Gabbana Fall 2012

Valentin Yudashkin S/S 2014

Versace S/S 2012

Vivienne Westwood A/W 2012

Lanvin A/W2012

S/S ’15: Elemental Innovation and Raw Texture

A major trend for spring/ summer 2015 is about modern aesthetics that are inspired by nature. Layers of raw contrasting textures, transparent detailings, and flowy silhouettes will take center stage. The theme is largely a backlash on the austerity of globalization, taking its inspiration from the elemental aspects of the Earth and both natural and animalistic textures. The result will be unexpected combinations which will leave you with the feeling that innovation will always be inspired by what is natural and pure.

Elemental Innovation and Raw Textures

White Marble Nude Pink Ballet Pink Custard Sand Taupe

Pale Lilac Muted Plum Mediterranean Blue Steel Blue Heather Gray Midnight

COLOR

PALETTE

F/W 2014

Milly

Helmut Lang

Trend-Tracking S/S 2014Nina Ricci

Phillip Lim

The evolution of raw texture layering and

elemental patterns and silhouettes

Inspired by the Earth and elements

Flowy silhouettes, elemental colors, and texture layeringLayered fur, feather, transparent, and flowy textures

Layered soft, touchable textures and neutral earth tones

Blogger Rumi Neely of FashionToast layering a

transparent top with wool and fur trimmings

Tumblr Famous Erika Bowes

Cool Hunting

Girl Spotted @ London Fashion Week

Poppy Delevigne

Olivia Palermo Fashion

Week Street

Style

Searching the streets of New York, Paris, London, and Milan for this generations

trendsetters Mary-Kate Olsen

Three Times Rule: Raw Texture and Elemental Inspiration Raw, Disheveled, and Heavily Textured Hair

Rachel Zoe S/S ‘14

Rag & Bone S/S ‘14 Christopher Kane ‘14Giambattista Valli

S/S ‘14

Photography Trend: Microscopic Photos

Salt

Paper Stamp

Sand

Edun F/W ‘14Furry Lace Shell-Toes

Rocha S/S ‘14 Feather Flats

Francesco Russo S/S

‘14

Raw Textured Shoes

Sustainability is a trend that has been on

the rise for several seasons, and shows

no signs of disappearing. It is

becoming increasingly important to consumers.

Russell Crotty, Watch the Dolphins Play, ballpoint pen and watercolor on paper on a fiberglass sphere. This year, this layering medium for the abstract art genre is becoming trendy.

As backlash on the increasing cold sterility of technology, tactile slow-production designs for electronic cases are trending. Bioelectric by Jeonwong Ji uses organic water, a glycerin mixture, and Chinese Mitten Crab to make these cases.

Quietly Neutral Landscapes

In photography, minimalist and monotone imagery of nature are trending. This 2014 photo series, Wander by Akos Major follows this signature style.

Cross-Cultural Analysis

Climate Issues take Center Stage: Cape Wind and Deepwater Wind vye to be first offshore wind farm in the US during 2014.

The ancient grain quinoa and the paleo diet are trending again for this year. The new trending vegetable for 2014 is cauliflower, and it is popping up in recipes and on menus everywhere. Food going back to its source is a huge theme for foodies.

A major trend in all sectors is refocusing on local communities and environments.

Interior Design

Luxurious fabrics such as velvet, earthy suede, and textured corduroy are in style. The color schemes include saturated earthy colors to brighten otherwise neutral rooms. Natural materials such such as leather and cowhide are also on trend.

Architectural Trends

Elements of passive homes built to work with the climate are trending for 2014 in the US. Examples include a roof pitched to make use or wind power or large windows installed to attract sunlight and heat into the home. Passive home’s can decrease energy consumption by up to 30%.

Spa bathrooms are increasing in popularity as a way to create tranquility and a relaxation place within the house. This trend is a result of more people travelling and staying in nice hotels.

Nature-infused textural homes are trending, mixing authentic vintage touches with warm but modern aesthetics.

Cross-Cultural Analysis cont. Natural Textures and Elemental Design