brazil economic chart pack

8/14/2019 Brazil Economic Chart Pack

1/42

1

Brazils Economic

Chart Pack

Brazils Economic

Chart Pack


2/42

2

I. Inflation


3/42

3

Inflation Convergence to Targets

Year Target Regulation Effective

1999 8% 2pp Res. 2615, 6/30/99 8.9%

2000 6% 2pp Res. 2615, 6/30/99 6.0%

2001 4% 2pp Res. 2615, 6/30/99 7.7%

2002 3.5% 2pp Res. 2744, 6/28/00 12.5%3.25% 2pp* Res. 2842, 6/28/01

4% 2.5pp Res. 2972, 6/27/02

8.5% (adjusted target) Open Letter to the Min. of Finance, 1/21/03

9.3%

3.75% 2.5pp* Res. 2972, 6/27/02

5.5% 2.5pp Res. 3108, 6/25/03 7.6%

2005 4.5% 2.5pp** Res. 3108, 6/25/03 5.7%

2006 4.5% 2pp Res. 3210, 6/30/04 3.1%

2007 4.5% 2pp Res. 3291, 6/23/05

2008 4.5% 2pp Res. 3378, 6/29/062009 4.5% 2pp Res. 3463, 6/26/07

* target reviewed in the subsequent Resolution

** 5.1% objective defined in the Copom minutes (Sep/04)

2004

2003

2010 4.5% 2pp Res. 3584, 7/1/08

4.5%

5.9%

2011 4.5% 2pp Res. 3748, 6/30/09


4/424

IPCA (12m Change)

Sources: IBGE and BCB * Oct 9

IPCA (accumulated in 12 months) marketexpectations*

%p.a.

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan

04

Jul

04

Jan

05

Jul

05

Jan

06

Jul

06

Jan

07

Jul

07

Jan

08

Jul

08

Jan

09

Jul

09

Jan

10

Jul

10

Sep 09:4.34% 2009:

4.29%*


5/425

Core IPCA Inflation

smoothed

exclusion

non-smoothed

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Dec

03

May

04

Oct

04

Mar

05

Aug

05

Jan

06

Jun

06

Nov

06

Apr

07

Sep

07

Feb

08

Jul

08

Dec

08

Sep

09

%

Source: BCB


6/42

6

IPCA Inflation Expectations

smoothed12-month

ahead

% 2010

2009

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Jan

07

Apr

07

Jul

07

Oct

07

Jan

08

Apr

08

Jul

08

Oct

08

Jan

09

Apr

09

Oct*

09

Source: BCB * Oct 9


7/42

7

Wholesale Prices

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan07

Apr07

Jul07

Oct07

Jan08

Apr08

Jul08

Oct08

Jan09

Apr09

Sep09

12m cummulative change

%

agricultural (lhs)

industrial (rhs)

%


8/42

8

II. Fiscal Policy


9/42

9

Consolidated Public Sector Primary Surplus

%o

fGDP

Aug 091.59%

avg. 1994-Jun/954.77%

avg. 1999-20022.91%

avg. 2003-Dec/08

4.11%

avg. Jul/95-1998-0.08%-2

-1

0

12

3

4

5

6

7

Jan

94

Jan

95

Jan

96

Jan

97

Jan

98

Jan

99

Jan

00

Jan

01

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09


10/42

10

Consolidated Public Sector BorrowingRequirements (Nominal)

Aug 09

3.53

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan

99

Jan

00

Jan

01

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Aug

09

%o

fGDP

Source: BCB


11/42

11

31

3335

37

39

4143

45

47

49

51

53

55

57

1Q

02

4Q

02

3Q

03

2Q

04

1Q

05

4Q

05

3Q

06

2Q

07

1Q

08

4Q

08

2009 2012

Public Sector Net Debt: Trend

%ofGDP

market

expectations(annual data)

1Q 02 2Q 09 (quarterly data)

56.9

2Q 0943.2

201336.2

Source: BCB * October 9


12/42

12

III. External Sector


13/42

13

Current Account

US$billion

%o

fGDP

US$ bi (left)

% of GDP (right)

Source: BCB *Estimate


14/42

14

Trade Balance

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180200

Jan

99

Jul

99

Jan

00

Jul

00

Jan

01

Jul

01

Jan

02

Jul

02

Jan

03

Jul

03

Jan

04

Jul

04

Jan

05

Jul

05

Jan

06

Jul

06

Jan

07

Jul

07

Jan

08

Jul

08

Jan

09

Sep

09

US

$billion

12-month accumulated

exports

imports

12-monthsurplus:

US$ 26.6 bn

181.4

155.7

Source: MDIC


15/42

15

Brazil: a (very) Closed Economy

(exports of goods+imports of goods)/GDP - 2007

0102030

4050

6070

8090

100

%

Brazil

USA

Japan

India

Australia

ColombiaUK

Argentina

Turkey

Spain

Uruguay

Peru

Russia

France

Italy

Venezuela

Canada

Portuga

l

Bolivia

Ecuado

r

Mexico

China

Chile

Germany

Philippines

Korea

Switzerland

Paraguay

Sources: IMF and WTO


16/42

16

Brazil: with Fairly Diversified Trading Relations

12-month cumulative exports through September

Source: MDIC

Latin Americaand the Caribbean

23.4%

EuropeanUnion22.6%

Asia (exc Middle East)24.3%

USA, including

Puerto Rico11.0%

others

18.7%


17/42

17

Brazil: Export Import Composition

semimanufactured products

13.3%

Source: MDIC

primaryproducts

41.5%

manufacturedproducts

45.2%

12-month cumulative exports through September

B ili E i 2008 M i D i i


18/42

18

Brazilian Exports in 2008 Main Destinations

Nafta

Eu

ropean

Union

Aladi

Eastern

Europe

Middle

East

Asia

Africa

other

regions

share in the exports

growth rate in 2008

average growth rate

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

%

Sources: BCB and MDIC

B ili E t M i P d t i 2008


19/42

19

Brazilian Exports: Main Products in 2008

US$ Million % of Total US$ Million % of Total US$ Million %

Primary Products 73,028 36.89% 51,596 32.12% 21,432 41.54%Iron ore 16,539 8.36% 10,558 6.57% 5,981 56.65%

Raw oil 13,556 6.85% 8,905 5.54% 4,651 52.22%

Soy 10,952 5.53% 6,709 4.18% 4,243 63.24%

Meat (chicken) 5,822 2.94% 4,217 2.63% 1,605 38.04%

Soy byproducts 4,364 2.20% 2,957 1.84% 1,407 47.57%

Cofee 4,131 2.09% 3,378 2.10% 753 22.30%

Meat (Beef) 4,006 2.02% 3,486 2.17% 520 14.93%

Tobacco 2,683 1.36% 2,194 1.37% 489 22.29%Semi-manufactured products 27,073 13.68% 21,800 13.57% 5,273 24.19%Iron or steel products 4,002 2.02% 2,340 1.46% 1,662 71.04%

Wood chemical moisture 3,901 1.97% 3,012 1.87% 889 29.52%

Raw sugar cane 3,650 1.84% 3,130 1.95% 520 16.61%

Gross melted iron and "Spiegel" iron 3,145 1.59% 1,867 1.16% 1,278 68.48%

Iron alloys 2,307 1.17% 1,465 0.91% 842 57.49%

Soy oil (crude) 1,985 1.00% 1,222 0.76% 763 62.43%

Leather and skins 1,867 0.94% 2,185 1.36% -318 -14.55%

Manufactured 92,682 46.82% 83,943 52.25% 8,739 10.41%Planes 5,495 2.78% 4,719 2.94% 776 16.45%Cars 4,916 2.48% 4,653 2.90% 262 5.64%

Parts and components for vehicles and tractors 3,510 1.77% 3,186 1.98% 324 10.16%

Fuel oil 2,964 1.50% 2,292 1.43% 672 29.32%

Transmitter or receiver devices and components 2,550 1.29% 2,353 1.46% 197 8.36%

Ethanol 2,390 1.21% 1,478 0.92% 912 61.75%

Heavy vehicles 2,176 1.10% 2,054 1.28% 122 5.92%

Energy generators and components 2,167 1.09% 1,707 1.06% 459 26.92%

Tractors 1,956 0.99% 1,575 0.98% 382 24.23%

Laminates (iron or steel) 1,921 0.97% 2,532 1.58% -611 -24.14%Shoes, parts and components 1,881 0.95% 1,912 1.19% -30 -1.59%

Refined sugar 1,833 0.93% 1,971 1.23% -137 -6.96%

Tractors, bulldozers and other vehicles 1,738 0.88% 1,508 0.94% 229 15.20%

Motor parts for vehicles 1,660 0.84% 1,615 1.01% 45 2.79%

Pumps, compressors, fans and parts 1,654 0.84% 1,568 0.98% 86 5.48%

Gasoline 1,653 0.84% 1,838 1.14% -184 -10.03%

Oxides and hidroxides of aluminum 1,547 0.78% 1,294 0.81% 252 19.50%

Others (Including Adjustments) 5,159 2.61% 3,310 2.06% 1,849 55.86%

Total 197,942 100.00% 160,649 100.00% 37,293 23.21%

2008 2007Products

Growth

Source: MDIC


20/42

20

Brazilian Imports: Main Products in 2008

US$ Million % of Total US$ Million % of Total US$ Million %

Primary Products 31,831 18.38% 21,774 18.05% 10,057 46.19%Oil 16,391 9.46% 11,989 9.94% 4,402 36.72%

Black coal 2,782 1.61% 1,526 1.26% 1,257 82.37%

Natural gas 2,715 1.57% 1,497 1.24% 1,218 81.38%

Wheat 1,874 1.08% 1,392 1.15% 482 34.60%

Semi-manufactured products 8,888 5.13% 5,660 4.69% 3,229 57.05%Potassium chloride 3,828 2.21% 1,500 1.24% 2,328 155.20%

Copper cathodes 1,931 1.11% 1,619 1.34% 312 19.27%

Manufactured Products 132,478 76.49% 93,184 77.26% 39,293 42.17%Cars 5,343 3.08% 3,121 2.59% 2,221 71.17%

Fuel oil 5,235 3.02% 3,062 2.54% 2,173 70.97%

Parts and components for vehicles and tractors 4,982 2.88% 3,573 2.96% 1,409 39.44%

Medicines 3,917 2.26% 3,196 2.65% 721 22.57%

Integrated circuits and microchips 3,536 2.04% 3,042 2.52% 495 16.27%Heterocyclic compounds 2,387 1.38% 1,873 1.55% 514 27.46%

Fertilizers 2,357 1.36% 1,249 1.04% 1,108 88.65%

Naftas 2,346 1.35% 1,954 1.62% 392 20.05%

Measurement devices 2,289 1.32% 1,764 1.46% 524 29.71%

Integrated circuits and microchips 3,536 2.04% 3,042 2.52% 495 16.27%

Turbojets, plane engines and parts 2,235 1.29% 1,656 1.37% 580 35.00%

Transmitter or receiver devices and components 2,085 1.20% 1,274 1.06% 811 63.68%

Ball bearings and parts 2,079 1.20% 1,560 1.29% 519 33.28%Parts for data processing machines 2,025 1.17% 1,559 1.29% 466 29.86%

Laminates 1,979 1.14% 996 0.83% 983 98.74%

Automatic machines for data processing 1,857 1.07% 1,575 1.31% 282 17.91%

Energy generators and components 1,671 0.97% 1,198 0.99% 474 39.55%

Pumps, compressors, fans and parts 1,661 0.96% 1,195 0.99% 466 39.01%

Parts and pieces for planes 1,605 0.93% 1,318 1.09% 287 21.80%

LCD devices 1,585 0.92% 1,132 0.94% 453 40.00%

Total 173,197 100.00% 120,617 100.00% 52,579 43.59%

2008 2007 GrowthProducts

Source: MDIC


21/42

21

International Reserves (ex-IMF Loans)

cash

liquidity

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

Jan

03

Jul

03

Jan

04

Jul

04

Jan

05

Jul

05

Jan

06

Jul

06

Jan

07

Jul

07

Jan

08

Jul

08

Jan

09

Jul

09

10/15232.2230.3

US$

billion

Source: BCB

R /Sh t T D bt


22/42

22

Reserves/Short-Term Debt

%

Source: BCB

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1Q

01

3Q

01

1Q

02

3Q

02

1Q

03

3Q

03

1Q

04

3Q

04

1Q

05

3Q

05

1Q

06

3Q

06

1Q

07

3Q

07

1Q

08

3Q

08

2Q

09

Net Foreign Direct In est ent


23/42

23

Net Foreign Direct Investment

US$

billion

12-month accumulated

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jan

03

Jun

03

Nov

03

Apr

04

Sep

04

Feb

05

Jul

05

Dec

05

May

06

Oct

06

Mar

07

Aug

07

Jan

08

Jun

08

Nov

08

Aug

09

Source: BCB

Net External Debt


24/42

24

Net External Debt

175

1Q03:165.2

4Q04:135.7

2Q09:

-28.0

150

125

US$billion

25

50

75

100

0

-25

-50

1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q

02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09

Source: BCB

External Sustainability Indicators


25/42

25

External Sustainability Indicators

%

net external debt/GDPnet external debt/exports

Source: BCB * Record low since the start of the series in1970; 2009 data through August.

to 0.2* from 3.1 to 2.5%* from 32.7%


26/42

26

IV. Credit and Banking Sector

Credit/GDP: Brazil vs Mature Economies 2007


27/42

27

Credit/GDP: Brazil vs. Mature Economies - 2007

2.22.0

1.8

1.6

%ofGDP

1.4

1.2

1.00.8

0.6

Source: World Bank *April 09

Brazil*

42.6

0.40.2

0.0Sweden

Canada

Spain US

Australia UK

Credit Growth


28/42

28

Credit Growth

concessions(Aug 09/Aug08)corporate: -4.8%individuals: +13.1%

total: +1.2%

Aug 09/Aug 08:+18.4%

Aug09/Aug 08:

+9.8%

100

140

180

220

260

300

340

380

420

460

Jan

04

Jul

04

Jan

05

Jul

05

Jan

06

Jul

06

Jan

07

Jul

07

Jan

08

Jul

08

Jan

09

Jul

09

individual

corporateJan2004=100

Source: BCB

Banking System Capital Adequacy Ratio


29/42

29

Banking System Capital Adequacy Ratio

Source: BCB

%

minimum capitalbase = 11%

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


30/42

30

V. Economic Activity

GDP Growth


31/42

31

GDP Growth

compared to same quarter of previous year

2.6

0.90.4

0.8

5.4

7.8

5.3

4.5

3.32.8 3.0

3.5

4.4

2.2

4.7 4.6

5.3

5.8

5.4

6.1 6.1 6.2

6.8

1.3

-1.8

-1.2

1Q

03

2Q

03

3Q

03

4Q

03

1Q

04

2Q

04

3Q

04

4Q

04

1Q

05

2Q

05

3Q

05

4Q

05

1Q

06

2Q

06

3Q

06

4Q

06

1Q

07

2Q

07

3Q

07

4Q

07

1Q

08

2Q

08

3Q

08

4Q

08

1Q

09

2Q

09

8

6

4

2

0

-2

Source: IBGE

Household Consumption


32/42

32

Household Consumption


0.7

-3.1

-1.5

0.9

1.9

3.94.2

5.2

3.74.2 4.7

5.35.7 5.5

5.1

4.5

6.45.9

5.7

7.2

6.35.9

7.3

2.2

1.3

3.2

-4

-3-2

-1

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

89

1Q

03

2Q

03

3Q

03

4Q

03

1Q

04

2Q

04

3Q

04

4Q

04

1Q

05

2Q

05

3Q

05

4Q

05

1Q

06

2Q

06

3Q

06

4Q

06

1Q

07

2Q

07

3Q

07

4Q

07

1Q

08

2Q

08

3Q

08

4Q

08

1Q

09

2Q

09

%

Source: IBGE

Fixed Capital Investment


33/42

33

Fixed Capital Investment


0.5

-8.1-6.9

-3.7

1.5

14.013.4

8.0

2.53.13.9

4.8

12.4

7.5

9.210.19.0

13.415.216.015.4

16.619.7

3.8

-14.0

-17.0-18

-14

-10

-6

-2

2

610

14

18

1Q

03

2Q

03

3Q

03

4Q

03

1Q

04

2Q

04

3Q

04

4Q

04

1Q

05

2Q

05

3Q

05

4Q

05

1Q

06

2Q

06

3Q

06

4Q

06

1Q

07

2Q

07

3Q

07

4Q

07

1Q

08

2Q

08

3Q

08

4Q

08

1Q

09

2Q

09

%

Source: IBGE

Contribution of Domestic and External Demandt GDP G th


34/42

34

to GDP Growth

domestic demandexternal demand


p.p.

0.0

-3.5

-0.4

1.2

4.0

7.3

4.9

3.8

2.9 2.4 2.5 3.0

4.9

4.0

5.9

6.4 6.7

6.0

7.57.9

8.7 8.7

9.3

3.2

-1.9

-1.9

2.6

4.4

0.8

-0.4

1.4

0.4

0.30.7

0.4 0.4 0.50.6

-0.5

-1.8 -1.2-1.8-1.4

-0.2

-2.1-1.8

-2.6-2.5 -2.5-1.9

0.1 0.7

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1Q

03

2Q

03

3Q

03

4Q

03

1Q

04

2Q

04

3Q

04

4Q

04

1Q

05

2Q

05

3Q

05

4Q

05

1Q

06

2Q

06

3Q

06

4Q

06

1Q

07

2Q

07

3Q

07

4Q

07

1Q

08

2Q

08

3Q

08

4Q

08

1Q

09

2Q

09

Sources: IBGE and BCB

Formal Employment


35/42

35

Formal Employment

millionofjobs 2003: 645 thousand

avg.1995-2002: 49 thousand

avg. 2004-2008: 1,415 thousand

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan

95

Jan

96

Jan

97

Jan

98

Jan

99

Jan

00

Jan

01

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Sep

09

Source: MTE

Retail Sales by Sector


36/42

36

eta Sa es by Secto

Sources: IBGE and BCB

vehicles and motorcycles furniture and appliances

fabric, clothing and shoessupermarkets

3-monthmovingave

rage,s.a.,2003=100

90

100

110

120130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

Jan01

Sep01

May02

Jan03

Sep03

May04

Jan05

Sep05

May06

Jan07

Sep07

May08

Aug09

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

Jan01

Sep01

May02

Jan03

Sep03

May04

Jan05

Sep05

May06

Jan07

Sep07

May08

Aug09

94

98

102

106

110

114

118

122

126

130

134

138

Jan

01

Sep

01

May

02

Jan

03

Sep

03

May

04

Jan

05

Sep

05

May

06

Jan

07

Sep

07

May

08

Aug

09

95

100

105

110

115120

125

130

135

140

145

150

Jan

01

Sep

01

May

02

Jan

03

Sep

03

May

04

Jan

05

Sep

05

May

06

Jan

07

Sep

07

May

08

Aug

09

Aug 09/ Aug 08: 9.4% (observed data)



Aug 09/ Aug 08: -5.8% (observed data)


37/42

Industrial Production by Sector


38/42

38

y

capital goods intermediate goods

durable consumer goods semi and non-durable goods

3-month

movingaverage,s.a.

,2002=100

Source: IBGE

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

01

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Aug

09

90

100

110

120

130

Jan01

Jan02

Jan03

Jan04

Jan05

Jan06

Jan07

Jan08

Aug09

8090

100110120130

140150160170180190

Jan01

Jan02

Jan03

Jan04

Jan05

Jan06

Jan07

Jan08

Aug09

85

105125

145

165

185

205

Jan01

Jan02

Jan03

Jan04

Jan05

Jan06

Jan07

Jan08

Aug09

Aug 09/ Aug 08:-22.3%

Aug 09/ Aug 08:-3.7%

Aug 09/ Aug 08:-8.0%

Aug 09/ Aug 08:-1.3%

Oil Production


39/42

39

millionsbpd

PETROBRAS estimate

2.42

1.79

2.37

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

Roncador mod. 4P-62

100.000bpd

1.95

2.192.30

1.4

1.6

Espadartemod. 3

100.000bpd

Marlim Sulmod. 3 P-56100.000bpd

Cachalote andBaleia Franca

FPSO Capixaba

100.000bpdFrade100.000bpd

Parque dasConchas

100.000bpd

Marlim Sulmod. 2P-51

180.000bpdMarlim Leste

P-53180.000bpd

Cidade de VitriaGolfinho mod. 2

100.000bpd

RoncadorP-52

180.000bpd

Rio de JaneiroEspadarte

mod. 2100.000bpd

Piranema30.000bpd

Cidade NiteriJabuti (FPSO)

100.000bpd

RoncadorP-54

180.000bpd

This curve does not include Tupi

project production

Tupi Long-TermTest

30.000bpd

Tupi PilotProject

100.000bpd

JubarteP-57

180.000bpd

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Petrobras

Crops Harvest


40/42

40

p

Source: IBGE * Sep 2009

millio

ntons

IBGEestimate

123.6

119.3

112.6

117.0

133.1

146.0

134.1

100

110

120

130

140

150

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*


41/42


42/42

42

Brazils Economic

Chart Pack

Brazils Economic

Chart Pack

brazil economic chart pack

Documents