monthly chart pack - st.george bank
TRANSCRIPT
MONTHLY CHART PACK
ST.GEORGE ECONOMICS
July 2020
1
2
AUSTRALIAN BOND & SWAP YIELDS
0
2
4
6
10 12 14 16 18 20
3-Month BBSW & Cash Rate(daily)
Source: Bloomberg
RBA Cash Rate Target, %
3-Month Bank Bill Swap Rate. %
0
2
4
6
10 12 14 16 18 20
Australian Yields(daily)
AU 10-Year Government Bond Yield, %
AUS 3-YearSwap Yield, %
Source: Bloomberg
3
SHARE MARKETS AND CURRENCIES
1700
2300
2900
3500
4100
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20
ASX200 & US S&P500(daily)
ASX200 (lhs)
S&P500 (rhs)
Source: Bloomberg
40
50
60
70
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20
Australian Dollar(daily)
AUD/USD (lhs)
Trade weighted index (rhs)
Source: Bloomberg, RBA
4
COMMODITY PRICES
0
50
100
150
00 04 08 12 16 20
RBA Commodity Price Index(monthly, SDR terms)
Source: RBA-50
0
50
100
150
00 04 08 12 16 20
WTI Crude Oil Price(daily, $US per barrel)
Source: Bloomberg
5
GLOBAL ACTIVITY INDICES
Note: Europe, UK and Japan indices are compiled by Markit, China from the National Bureau of Statistics and the US indices are compiled by ISM.
30
40
50
60
70
2017 2018 2019 2020
Performance of Manufacturing Indices - Selected Economies
Europe US
UK
JapanChina
Source: Bloomberg
10
30
50
70
2017 2018 2019 2020
Performance of Services Indices -Selected Economies
EuropeUS
UKJapan China
Source: Bloomberg
6
US LABOUR MARKET
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Jan-00 Jan-07 Jan-14 Jan-21
US Initial Jobless Claims(weekly, '000s)
Source: Bloomberg
3
6
9
12
15
18
Jan-85 Jan-92 Jan-99 Jan-06 Jan-13 Jan-20
US Unemployment Rate%
Source: Bloomberg
7
AUSTRALIAN ACTIVITY INDICES
20
30
40
50
60
70
05 08 11 14 17 20
AiG Perf. of Construction Index
Source: Bloomberg20
30
40
50
60
70
05 08 11 14 17 20
AiG Perf. of Services Index
Source: Bloomberg
20
30
40
50
60
70
05 08 11 14 17 20
AiG Perf. of Manufacturing Index
Source: Bloomberg
8
CONSUMER AND BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IN AUSTRALIA
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
00 04 08 12 16 20
Business Confidence(index, 0=neutral)
Source: NAB70
85
100
115
130
00 04 08 12 16 20
Westpac-MI Consumer Confidence(index, 100=neutral)
Source: Melbourne Institute & Westpac
9
RETAIL SPENDING IN AUSTRALIA
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Food H'holdGoods
Clothing,F'wear &Pers Acc
Dept.Stores
Other Cafes,Rest &T'away
Total
Nominal Retail Sales by Sector(Jun 2020, annual % change)
Source: ABS
-18
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Nominal Retail Sales
Monthly % change
Annual % change
Source: ABS
10
LABOUR MARKET IN AUSTRALIA
2
6
10
14
00 04 08 12 16 20
Unemployment and Underemployment Rate
Source: ABS
%
Underemployment rate
Unemployment rate
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
00 04 08 12 16 20
Tho
usa
nd
s
Hours Worked(millions)
Source: ABS
11
AUCTION CLEARANCE RATES AND TURNOVER IN AUSTRALIA
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
10 12 14 16 18 20
Auction Clearance Rates (four-week moving average)
Source: CoreLogic
SydneyMelbourne
Australia
20
30
40
50
10 12 14 16 18 20
Sales Volumes(National, 6-mth moving avg, 000's)
Source: CoreLogic
12
AUSTRALIAN DWELLING PRICES
50
100
150
200
05 08 11 14 17 20
CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value(selected capital cities, index)
Source: CoreLogic, June 2020
AdelaidePerth
Australia, combined capital cities
Darwin
Hobart
50
100
150
200
05 08 11 14 17 20
CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value(selected capital cities, index)
Source: CoreLogic, June 2020
Melbourne
Sydney
Australia, comb capital cities
Brisbane
13
CREDIT AND LENDING IN AUSTRALIA
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
05 08 11 14 17 20
Private Sector Credit (by component, annual % change)
BuH
Business
Housing
Other Personal
Source: RBA, data as at May 2020
0
10
20
30
40
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Value of Housing Finance (By value, $ billions)
Owner Occupier
Investor
Total
Source: ABS
14
INFLATION IN AUSTRALIA
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Consumer Price Index(annual % change)
Underlying CPI
Headline CPI
RBA 2-3% pa Target Band
Source: ABS
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20
Childcare
Automotive fuel
Electricity
Audio, visual and computing equip.
Education
Utilities
Clothing and footwear
Health
Furniture and Furnishings
Major household appliances
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
Total CPI
Price Changes of Selected CPI Categories(June quarter 2020, % annual change)
15
CONTACTS
Chief Economist Senior Economist Economist
Besa Deda Janu Chan Nelson Aston
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
(02) 8254 3251 (02) 8253 0898 (02) 8254 1316
16
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