bp energy outlook 2030: south africa 2012 · shares of world primary energy china us world india...
TRANSCRIPT
BP Energy Outlook 2030
South Africa, March 2012
© BP 2012
Outline
• Global energy trends
• Liquid fuels
• Transport demand
• Refining
• South Africa
© BP 2012
four key drivers of the energy future
Demand
Growth
• GDP growth
• urbanisation
Security
of Supply
• import dependence
• resource competition Environmental
Constraints
• climate change
• local emissions
Sustainable
Resources
• Diverse resources
• non-conventionals
© BP 2012
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Non-OECD economies to drive consumption growth
OECD
Non-OECD
Billion toe
*Includes biofuels
Billion toe
Energy Outlook 2030 4
*
© BP 2012
Convergence of energy intensity and fuel shares
Energy intensity
Toe per thousand $2010 GDP
Shares of world primary energy
China US
World
India
* Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2030 5
Oil
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear Renew. *
© BP 2012
Conclusion
Oil
Gas
Coal
OECD
Energy can be available and
affordable
Competition / Efficient Market
Innovation / Technology
Regulation / Energy policy
Energy security an issue
CO2 emissions not on track
GDP, Energy and CO2
Index (1970=100)
GDP
Energy
CO2
Energy Outlook 2030 6
© BP 2012
Outline
• Global energy trends
• Liquid fuels
• Transport demand
• Refining
• South Africa
© BP 2012
Global liquids – demand and supply
Mb/d Demand Supply
India
Mid East
China
NGLs
Iraq Other
S&C Am
Other
Saudi
Oil Sands
Biofuels
Brazil
US
2030 level
Energy Outlook 2030 8
© BP 2012
Outline
• Global energy trends
• Liquid fuels
• Transport demand
• Refining
• South Africa
© BP 2012
Vehicle growth concentrated in the Non-OECD
Total number of vehicles
Non-OECD
OECD
US
Japan
Germany
Vehicles per thousand people
Vehicles
Energy Outlook 2030 10
Millions
South Africa
© BP 2012
Transport fuel demand is met predominantly by oil
By energy type
Billion toe
Projected car efficiency
Litres per 100 km
Energy Outlook 2030 11
© BP 2012
Policy and technology drive efficiency improvements
Global vehicle fleet in 2030
69%
4%
11%
16%
Energy Outlook 2030 12
Passenger car sales by type
© BP 2012
Outline
• Global energy trends
• Liquid fuels
• Transport demand
• Refining
• South Africa
© BP 2012
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
N. America
Middle East
Africa
Asia Pacif ic
Europe
Refinery utilisation (%)
Source: includes data from Parpinelli-Technon and ESAI.
<75%
© BP 2012
OECD
45
60
75
90
105
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Global liquids demand
Mb/d
Non-refined NGLs: 3
Biofuels: 3
Supply growth 2010-30 Global liquids supply and demand
Other liquids:1 1
Total liquids 16 Mb/d
=> Refined crude: 9
The implications for refining are stark
Aspac & PG have already
announced >10Mb/d of
new builds!
Crude
Bio
NGLs
Other
Energy Outlook 2030 15
© BP 2012
Outline
• Global energy trends
• Liquid fuels
• Transport demand
• Refining
• South Africa
© BP 2012
South Africa refining status
Solomon Associate 2012
Process utilization (%) Operating cost ($/UEDC) Capital investment ($/EDC)
Southeast Asia Western Europe South Africa
© BP 2012
South African Demand and Imports dependency: Petroleum, Diesel and Kerosene
Energy Outlook 2030 18
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20202022 2024 2026 2028 2030
SA Share of
imports
50%
30%
12%
2030 imports diff = 180 Kb/d
22
95
64
Car efficiency
(low high)
Economic growth
(4% 3%)
Refinery utilisation
(72% 82%)
Kb/d
South Africa demand
forecast
Global demand forecast
High imports case
medium imports case
© BP 2012
South African gasoline and diesel imports
Energy Outlook 2030 19
Kb/d
Share of diesel
High Import Case Kb/d
Medium Import Case
Diesel Petrol
© BP 2012
Demand
Growth
Security
of Supply
Environmental
Constraints
Sustainable
Resources
“The Solution Set for South Africa”
Efficient Market
Technology
Energy Policy
• Increase diversity of
resources
• Increase share of renewables
• Partner with neighbours
• Invest in existing refineries
• Increase capacity
• Address infrastructure bottleneck
Embrace Low “C” economy
• Cleaner Fuels (CF2)
• Renewables energy
• Manufacturing efficiency
• GDP is growing (BRICS)
• Urbanisation momentum
• Promote energy saving
© BP 2012
Energy imbalances further improve Supply Opportunities in Africa
Gas
Oil
Coal
Billion toe
Key:
Europe
N. America
S. & C. America Africa
Mid-East
FSU
Other Asia Pacific
India
China
Energy Outlook 2030 21
Net exporters
Net importers
© BP 2012
Liquids demand driven by non-OECD transport
Liquids demand by product group
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
1990 2010 2030
Biofuels
Light
distillates
Middle
distillates
Other
Fuel Oil
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
1990 2010 2030
Non-OECD
Ind. & Other
Non-OECD
Transport
OECD Ind. &
Other
OECD
Transport
Power
Mb/d
Energy Outlook 2030 22
Liquids demand by sector
Mb/d