bp energy outlook 2030 north america

8/11/2019 BP Energy Outlook 2030 North America

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January 2013 Focus on North America


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BP 2013

Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding globaleconomic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable

energies and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks anduncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or mayoccur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, includingproduct supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal andregulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverseweather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussedelsewhere in this presentation.

Energy Outlook 20302


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BP 2013Energy Outlook 2030

3

The BP Energy Outlook 2030 contains BPs projections of long-term energytrends. Building on our Statistical Review of World Energy, this outlookdevelops projections for world energy markets to 2030, taking account ofthe potential evolution of the world economy, policy, and technology.

The outlooks base case reflects a to the best of our knowledge

assessment of the worlds likely path from todays vantage point, drawing

on expertise both within and outside the company. It is not a statementabout how we would like the market to evolve.

The outlook highlights the central role markets and well-designed policycan play to meet the dual challenge of solving the energy needs of billionsof people who aspire to better lifestyles, and doing so in a way that is

sustainable and secure.

This presentation focuses on North America; additional detail on the globalBP Energy Outlook 2030 may be found at www.bp.com/energyoutlook.

Introduction


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Energy demand trends

Unconventionals in North America

Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel

Implications


Page

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Contents


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North American energy use rises slightly

OECD

Non-OECD

Billion toe


0

1

2

3

1990 2010 2030

US

Canada & Mexico

0

1

2

3

1990 2010 2030

Other

Powergeneration

Transport

By primary use By fuelBy region

Oil

Coal

Gas

Billion toe Billion toe

Industry

0

1

2

3

1990 2010 2030

Hydro

Nuclear

Renew.*

Oil

Coal

Gas

*Includes biofuels


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as power demand offsets falling use in transport


North American primary energy consumption is projected to grow by0.2% per annum (p.a.) from 2011 to 2030, adding just 3.4% to demand by2030. Almost all (84%) of the energy consumption growth is in Canada &Mexico; US demand expands by less than 1% by 2030.

Energy used for power generation grows by 12% and accounts for over140% of net primary energy demand growth. Primary energy use in

industry grows by 5%, while in transportation it declines by 10%.

The fastest growing fuels are renewables (including biofuels) withgrowth averaging 6.1% p.a. from 2011 to 2030. Among fossil fuels, naturalgas consumption expands (0.8% p.a.) while coal (-0.9% p.a.) and oil(-0.8% p.a.) use declines.

North Americas share of global energy demand falls from 23% in 2011 to

17% in 2030; it peaked at 30% in 1996. Having been passed by China in2009 as the worlds largest energy consumer, the US share drops from18% currently to 14% by 2030. China will likely consume twice as muchenergy as the US in 2030.


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-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

1970-1990

1990-2010

2010-2030

Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

With weak North American demand growth

Contributions to growth

*Includes biofuels

% p.a.


*

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

US Canada &Mexico

Billion toe

Changes in fuels 2011-30


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US fuel substitution plays an important role


The rate of North American demand growth continues to decline. Havingaveraged 1.2% p.a. from 1970-90, then 0.9% p.a. from 1990-10, we expectgrowth of just 0.2% p.a. over the coming two decades.

Significantly, from 2011 to 2030 renewables will contribute a greatershare to total demand growth than fossil fuels for the first time. Theseshifts are driven by a combination of relative fuel prices, technological

innovation, and policy interventions.

The drop in demand growth is most pronounced in the US wheredemand is expected to grow by less than 0.1% p.a. to 2030 afterexpanding by 0.7% p.a. over the past two decades.

In the US, fuel substitution plays an important role. In power generation,renewables (6.9% p.a.) and natural gas (0.7% p.a.) gain at the expense ofcoal (-0.9% p.a.). In transportation, biofuels (3.9% p.a.) displace oil (-1.1%p.a.).


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North American production expands significantly

OECD

Non-OECD

Billion toe


0

1

2

3

1990 2010 2030

Canada &Mexico

US

By fuelBy region

Oil

Coal

Gas

Billion toe

0

1

2

3

1990 2010 2030

Renew*

Hydro

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

*Includes biofuels


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...led by unconventional oil & gas and renewables

North American energy production grows by 1.1% p.a. from 2011 to 2030and is 23% higher by the end of the Outlook. This compares to growth ofjust 0.6% p.a. over the previous two decades.

The US accounts for nearly three-quarters of regional energy productioncurrently, as well as 74% of the growth to 2030.

Oil surpasses natural gas in 2014 as the regions leading fuel supplied;gas regains the lead in 2025. Of the fossil fuels, oil (1.8% p.a.) grows thefastest followed by gas (1.2% p.a.), while coal (-0.8% p.a.) supply falls.

Renewables (including biofuels) expand by 6.2% p.a. with marginalgrowth from nuclear (0.4% p.a.) and flat hydro (0.0% p.a.) supply. Non-fossil fuels market share rises from 18% today to 21% in 2030.

With oil expanding by 41% to 2030, supply will surpass the historicalhigh of 1985 in 2013. Natural gas will increase by 25% from todaysrecord levels. Meanwhile coal output will contract by 14%; regionalsupply in 2030 will be 20% below the all-time peak reached in 1998.

Energy Outlook 2030


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11

Shares of US primary energy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1970 1985 2000 2015 2030

Oil

Coal

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Renew.*

*Includes biofuels

Energy prices and policy are a key factor

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1965 1980 1995 2010

Oil - Brent

Gas - Henry Hub

Coal - basket

Energy prices

$2011/boe


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driving natural gas and renewables to gain share

Prices, technology and policy drive changes in the fuel mix. Fossil fuelprices have risen to record levels in real terms over the past decade.Average annual real oil prices over the five years 2007-11 were 220%above the average for 1997-2001; for gas the increase was 87% and forcoal 46%. These long run price movements inevitably lead to demandand supply responses.

In the US, oil and coal lose market share in the energy consumption mixwhile natural gas becomes the dominant fuel. While hydro and nuclearshares remain stable, renewables expand significantly, eventuallybecoming the dominant non-fossil fuel.

Oil follows a long-run trend of declining market share, with its

consumption increasingly concentrated in transport. Gas and renewableswill displace coal in power generation.

The growth in renewables can be attributed to continued governmentsupport, as well as innovations and technological advances which drivedown costs.

Energy Outlook 2030


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13

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

Energy intensity by region

Toe per thousand $2011 GDP

China

US

WorldEU*

0

10

20

30

0

1

2

3

1970 1990 2010 2030

GDP (RHS)

Energy

US energy and GDP

Billion toe Trillion $2011

Energy intensity improvements are critical

*Euro4 (France, Italy, Germany, UK) pre-1970


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in slowing US demand growth


We have previously noted the long run trend of declining and convergingenergy intensity (the amount of energy consumed per unit of GDP).Current high prices for energy and global integration reinforce this trend.

Global energy intensity in 2030 is 31% lower than in 2011, declining at1.9% p.a. compared to a decline rate of 1.0% p.a. for 2000-10. Theimprovements in the US are greater than the global average with

expected declines of 2.3% p.a. as the countrys energy intensity is 36%lower in 2030 than it is today.

The impact of declining energy intensity can be seen clearly in therelationship between GDP and energy consumption. Without theprojected intensity decline, the US would need 55% more energy by

2030, rather than the projected 1% increase.

On a global scale, without the projected intensity decline, the worldwould need to almost double the energy supply by 2030 to sustaineconomic growth, rather than the 36% increase seen in our Outlook.


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Implications


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0

20

40

60

AsiaP

acific

N.Am

erica

S.&C.Am

erica

A

frica

Europe&Eu

rasia

Middle

East

Gas

Oil

Shale gas and tight oil resources and production...

Billion toe

Current resources Production in 2030


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

AsiaP

acific

N.Am

erica

S.&C.Am

erica

A

frica

Europe&Eu

rasia

Middle

East

Billion toe

Source: OECD/IEA 2012


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highlight the importance of above-ground factors

High prices and technological innovation have unlocked vastunconventional resources in the US, reversing the trend of falling outputand altering global energy balances.

Globally there are estimated technically recoverable resources of 240billion barrels (Bbbls) for tight oil and 200 trillion cubic meters (Tcm) forshale gas. Asia has an estimated 57 Tcm of shale gas and 50 Bbbls of

tight oil, versus 47 Tcm and 70 Bbbls respectively for North America. Intotal, North America accounts for 24% of global tight oil and shale gasresources.

In 2012, 2.1 Mb/d (24%) of US oil production was from tight oil and 24Bcf/d (37%) of natural gas from shale. These resources have boosted gas

output by nearly 20% and oil by 30% in the past five years.

Assessing both global resources and above ground factors, North

America will continue to dominate production by 2030, even as otherregions gradually adapt to develop their resources.

17Energy Outlook 2030


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US tight oil and shale gas output is supported by...

18

Onshore oil & gas rigs 2011

Thousands

Oil wells drilled and output

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

3

6

9

12

15

Bakken Canada Colombia

2012* 2011

2010 Output

Mb/d

Energy Outlook 2030

(RHS)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Thousands

*Annualized from 1Q-3Q dataSource: Baker Hughes and Smith Bits


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a competitive environment including a strong service sector

Above ground factors have enabled US success: a robust servicesector with the worlds largest rig fleet (over 1,800 rigs in operation, a

majority of which can drill horizontally), a competitive industry thatspurs continued technological innovation, land access facilitated byprivate ownership, deep financial markets, and favorable fiscal andregulatory terms.

As an example, output in the Bakken has increased from 0.1 Mb/d justfive years ago to over 1 Mb/d currently, roughly matching that ofColombia, as operators are drilling more oil wells than in all of Canada.

So far, only the US and Canada have combined these variables tosupport rapid production growth. The pace of development elsewhere is

likely to be measured, given the lengthy checklist of factors required fordevelopment of shale gas and tight oil resources.



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0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2010 2020 2030

China

Russia

S. America

N. America

NGLs

20

North America will dominate production

Energy Outlook 2030

Tight oil output

% of total(RHS)

Mb/d

Shale gas output

Bcf/d

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2010 2020 2030

China

RoW

Europe & Eurasia

N. America

% of total(RHS)


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21

of both shale gas and tight oil

Shale gas is expected to grow by 54 Bcf/d, accounting for 38% of thegrowth of natural gas supply and reaching a 16% market share by 2030.North American production will expand by 34 Bcf/d, accounting for 73%of the global total by 2030.

Tight oil will expand by 7.5 Mb/d by 2030 and account for nearly half ofthe 16 Mb/d of global supply growth. By 2030, tight oil should reach 9%

of global supplies. North America will continue to dominate outputaccounting for 73% of the global total in 2030.

In the US, shale gas will more than double from todays levels, reaching

44 Bcf/d by 2030 as tight oil grows by a factor of four reaching 5.8 Mb/dby the end of the Outlook. Shale gas accounts for 53% of total output by

2030 as tight oil reaches 44%.North Americas tight oil and shale gas growth is expected to slow post-2020 based on the current view of the resource base and the costs anddrilling activity required to sustain output. This creates the possibility ofupward revisions as understanding of the resource evolves.


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Implications


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High oil prices are reducing oils share of primary energy

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1970 1990 2010 2030

Transport

IndustryOther

Power

Oils share by sector in the US


Fuel economy of new cars

15

20

25

30

35

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Actual

CAFE

Mb/d

Years

2001-10

1975-84


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via substitution and efficiency gains in transport

After the oil price shocks of the 1970s, oils share in US primary energyconsumption fell from a peak of 48% in 1978 to 40% in 1989. Risingprices have again increased the burden of oil on the economy and thefuel continues to lose market share, falling to 35% in 2011.

High relative prices have led to the substitution of oil by other fuels. Inpower generation oils share fell from 20% in 1973 to 1% in 2011. Oils

share in residential and commercial also declined substantially, down byhalf from over 40% in the 1970s. Industrial use has not declined becauseof limits to substitution in petrochemicals and non-energy uses.

In transport, the market response to high prices has been primarily viaefficiency gains. In the US, miles per gallon for new vehicles improved

by 66% the decade following 1975 after the first oil shock and improvedanother 17% the decade after 2001. In both periods the consumerresponse to higher prices outpaced government policy.

However, in our Outlook substitution in transport does eventually occurwith biofuels grabbing a 14% share in 2030 and natural gas reaching 3%.



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Falling transport demand and rising unconventionals...

25

Mb/d

Liquids demand by sector

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2010 2030

Can/Mex

Other

US Other

Can/MexTransport

US Transport

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2010 2030

Biofuels

US tight oil

Mexico

Oil sands

Other Canada

Other US

Liquids supply by source

Mb/d

Energy Outlook 2030


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are shifting oil balances in North America

26

Liquids consumption is likely to drop by 2 Mb/d to 21 Mb/d by 2030 with

declines in US transport accounting for all the net decline. By 2030, USdemand will be 20% lower than the peak reached in 2005.

Fuel economy improvements have accelerated due to consumerreactions to rising prices, tightening policy, and enabled by technologicalimprovements. Enhancements to the internal combustion engine and

gradual hybridization of the fleet are expected to further accelerate gains.Meanwhile supply of unconventionals are surging with tight oil (+5.1Mb/d), oil sands (+2.7 Mb/d), and biofuels (+0.9 Mb/d) all contributing toregional growth. The US (+4.5 Mb/d) will lead the increase and surpass itsprevious record output reached in 1970.

North American liquids will likely increase by 44% in 2030 compared totodays levels and by nearly 60% when compared to 1990.

The US will likely surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia in 2013 as the largestliquids producer in the world (crude and biofuels) due to tight oil andbiofuels growth, but also due to expected OPEC production cuts.

Energy Outlook 2030


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27

Tight oil brings self-sufficiency to North America

Mb/dChina

Mb/dN. America

Mb/dUS

Sources of oil supply

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2010 2030

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2010 2030

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2010 2030

Net oil imports

Tight oil output

Other domestic output


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and significantly reduces US imports

28

By 2030, North America will likely be self sufficient in liquids as net

imports continue to fall throughout the Outlook, from a high of 44% ofdemand in 2005 (11 Mb/d) and 34% today (8 Mb/d). By 2030, the regions

production could be 1 Mb/d greater than demand.

In the US, net imports are set to decline by 70% from 10 Mb/d to just 3Mb/d. Imports as a share of total demand drop from 53% to just 20%.

Imports in 2030 could be just 25% of the peak levels reached in 2005.It should be noted that these are regional aggregates rather than aprediction of specific trading relationships. If for example, a pipeline wasbuilt in Canada to the west coast for oil exports to Asia, then the USimports from outside the region would rise correspondingly.

The falling import requirement in the US is in stark contrast to that ofChina where net imports will rise by 130% as the import dependencyratio hits nearly 80% in 2030. China surpasses the US as the worlds

largest oil consumer by 2030.

Energy Outlook 2030


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US power and industry drive gas demand growth...

29

Bcf/d

Gas demand by sector

0

30

60

90

120

1990 2010 2030

Can/Mex

US Other

US Industry

US Power

0

30

60

90

120

1990 2010 2030

Can/Mex Shale

US Shale

US Other

Can/Mex Other

Gas supply by source

Bcf/d

Energy Outlook 2030


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30

Natural gas demand is set to increase by 13 Bcf/d to reach nearly 100Bcf/d by 2030 with US power (+3.7 Bcf/d) and industry (+3.2 Bcf/d)driving demand growth. Natural gas becomes the dominant fuel in theUS fuel mix rising from 28% today to 31% in 2030, surpassing oil.

In the US, natural gas (along with renewables) displaces coal in powergeneration; gas also displaces coal in industrial use. Gas use in power

generation expands by 18% and in industry by 13%. In transport, gasincreases by 1.7 Bcf/d but accounts for just 3% of total transport by 2030.

Meanwhile, supply of unconventional gas surges in the US (+25 Bcf/d)and Canada & Mexico (+9 Bcf/d), more than offsetting declines in othergas supplies (-13 Bcf/d). The US will remain the largest natural gas

producer in the world, accounting for 18% of total supplies in 2030.Shale supplies will account for over half of regional output by 2030, upfrom 24% today and just 1% ten years ago.

while shale gas dominates the supply profile


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as the US shifts from net importer to exporter

North American shale gas production grows by 5.3% p.a. reaching 54Bcf/d by 2030, more than offsetting the decline of conventional gasproduction. Supported by shale gas, North America will become a netexporter in 2017, with net exports approaching 8 Bcf/d by 2030.

The US will transition from a natural gas importer (nearly 4 Bcf/dcurrently) to an LNG exporter. After reaching self-sufficiency by 2020, the

US will export 6.6 Bcf/d by 2030 if additional export permits aregranted. We also assume that Canada becomes an LNG exporter.

In a global context, the 8 Bcf/d of net LNG exports from North America by2030 will equate to over 10% of global LNG supplies, a market that isexpected to more than double from 32 Bcf/d today to 70 Bcf/d by 2030.

In contrast, shale gas development faces a number of challenges inEurope. For the EU, shale gas production of 2.4 Bcf/d in 2030 is notenough to offset the rapid decline of conventional gas production,leading to a 48% increase in net imports.


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Coal demand continues to decline in the US

33

Billion toe

Coal demand by sector

0.0

0.4

0.7

1990 2010 2030

Can/Mex

US Other

US Power

Energy Outlook 2030

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1990 2010 2030

Renewables

Biofuels

Hydro

Nuclear

Billion toe

Non-fossil fuel demand


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while renewables expand in power and transport


Coal consumption falls by 0.9% p.a. from 2011 to 2030 in North America,with demand 16% lower in 2030 than it is today despite overall growth of12% for power demand (the sector in which coal is almost exclusivelyused in the region).

In the US, competitively-priced natural gas, rapidly growing renewables,and regulatory pressures on coal-fired power plants all limit coals use.

Despite this decline, coal will remain the dominant fuel in powergeneration.

Renewables (including biofuels) on the other hand grow by 6.1% p.a.from 2011 to 2030 for the region as a whole and by 6.9% p.a. for the US.By 2030, the US will account for 62% of the regional renewables in

power, 97% of biofuels, 89% nuclear, and 38% of hydro use.In the US, renewables in power generation increase by 258%, whilebiofuels demand rises by 106%, increasing their market share in powerand transport. Nuclear generation expands by 8% while hydro-electricoutput drops by 14%, though the latter is due to record highs in 2011.


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US power demand grows as the fuel mix continues to evolve

Renewables in power

Biofuels


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1970 1990 2010 2030

Shares of US power output

Renew.

Nuclear

Coal

Oil

HydroGas

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1990-2000

2000-2010

2010-2020

2020-2030

Growth of fuel inputs to power

Billion toe


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reflecting changes in relative pricing and policy

In the US, power demand is expected to rise by 9% from 2011 to 2030.The growth rates over the course of the Outlook are slower thanexperienced in the 1990s but comparable to the last decade.

Power demand expanded by 2.4% p.a. from 1990-00 and was dominatedby coal, but slowed to 0.4% p.a. from 2000-10, as gas provided thegrowth. The current decade is expected to see growth of 0.6% p.a. split

between gas and renewables, while the 2020-30 period should expand by0.3% p.a. and be met by renewables displacing coal.

Over time we see large shifts in the fuel mix for power generation, drivenby relative prices, policy, and technology developments. In the 1970s and1980s, high-priced oil was replaced by nuclear. Meanwhile, coals market

share continued to rise due to its cost advantage. In the 2000s naturalgas gained share as more efficient CCGT technology was deployed.

This Outlook assumes gas holds its current market share whilerenewables continue to displace coal, rising from 5% of power demandtoday to 15% in 2030 as coals share drops from 48% to 37%.



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Implications


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0%

50%

Distribution of oil and gas reserves: importing regions

2011 reserves2030 output

% share of global total

Key:

Europe

N. America

S. & C. AmericaAfrica

Middle East

FSU

Asia Pacific


Net exporters 2011

Net importers 2011


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-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

China

US

EU

Energy imbalances to GDP ratio


Energy imbalances

China EU US

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

1990

2010

2030

1990

2010

2030

1990

2010

2030

Oil

GasCoal

Mtoe Toe per $Mln GDP

Energy imbalances: significant changes in import profiles...


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...put into perspective by economic growth

Growing production and flat consumption will see the US become nearlyself-sufficient in energy by 2030. The US will remain a small net importerof oil, although net imports will decline by about 70%. With net exportsof natural gas and coal, US energy production will reach 99% ofdomestic consumption, up from a low of 70% in 2005.

China is on pace to match Europe as the worlds leading energy importer

by 2030, and will replace the US as the worlds largest oil importingnation by 2017.

However, the growth in Chinese energy imports will be taking place in acontext of robust economic growth. Adjusting the volume of energyimports for expected economic growth will leave China relatively less

dependent (per unit of GDP) than EU on imported energy.Other things equal, the development of energy imbalances point towarda reduction of global trade imbalances.

Energy Outlook 2030


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Oil

Gas

US CO2emissions and primary energy

Billion tonnes CO2


Growth of CO2emissions

% p.a.

0

1

2

3

0

2

4

6

8

1970 1990 2010 2030

Emissions fromenergy use

Primary energy(RHS)

Billion toe

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

World Canada &Mexico

US

1970-1990

1990-2010

2010-2030

Energy demand growth drives carbon emissions


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but the link weakens as the energy mix decarbonises

Energy Outlook 2030

Global CO2 emissions from energy use increase by 26% between 2011and 2030 (1.2% p.a.). We assume continued tightening in policies toaddress climate change, yet emissions remain well above the requiredpath to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases at the levelrecommended by scientists (450 ppm).

There is some progress: the changing fuel mix, in particular the rising

share of renewables and substitution of coal with gas, results in agradual decoupling of emissions growth from primary energy growth.

The decoupling is evident in the US, where energy demand expands by1% but emissions fall by nearly 10%. This is driven by falling oil demand(driven by efficiency gains in the vehicle fleet), growth of renewables in

power generation, and the displacement of coal by gas.While US emissions fall by 0.5% p.a. from 2011 to 2030, Canada &Mexicos emissions increase by 0.5% p.a., in contrast to the OECD

average decline of 0.3% p.a.


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Conclusion

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Popul

ation

Incomeper

capita

Economicgrowth

Efficiencygains

Newsupply

% p.a.

Economic growth needsenergy

Competition and innovationare the key to meeting this

need

energy efficiency

new supplies

Energy security and climate

change remain challenges

Energy Outlook 2030 44

Global changes in GDP and energy


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Data sources

Baker Hughes, Houston, Texas

BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom, June 2012

BP p.l.c., BP Energy Outlook 2030, London, United Kingdom, January 2012

Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania,Heston, A., Summers, R., Aten, B., Penn World Table Version 7.1, Nov 2012.

Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook , Washington, D.C., United States, 2012

GIIGNL, Paris, France

International Council for Clean Transportation, Global passenger vehicle standards update. August 2012

International Energy Agency, CO2Emissions from Fuel Combustion, Paris, France, 2012

International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2012

International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2012

International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012, Paris, France, 2012

Oxford Economics Ltd, Oxford, UK

PIRA Energy Group, New York, NY, United States

Rhl C., Appleby P., Fennema J., Naumov A., Schaffer ME. (2012). Economic development and the demand forenergy: a historical perspective on the next 20 years. Energy Policy, vol 50, pp. 109-116.

Smith Bits S.T.A.T.S.

UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, New York, United States, 2011

US Environmental Protection Agency, Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, andFuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2011. March 2012

World Bank, World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), November 2012

Plus various official sources

bp energy outlook 2030 north america

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