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BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition
Outlook to 2035
bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
Mark Finley 14th February 2016
© BP p.l.c. 2016
0 10 20 30
Other
India
Africa
China
OECD
Population Productivity
Contribution to GDP growth 2014-35
OECD
2016 Energy Outlook 2
Trillion, $2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
1965 2000 2035
Other
India
Africa
China
OECD
Trillion, $2010
GDP
Economic backdrop
© BP p.l.c. 2016 2016 Energy Outlook
Billion toe
Consumption by region Consumption growth by region
10 year average, % per annum
Transport
Other
Industry
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1975 1995 2015 2035
Other Asia
China
World
OECD
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1965 2000 2035
Other
Other Asia
China
OECD
Global energy demand
3
© BP p.l.c. 2016 2016 Energy Outlook
What drives energy demand?
4
© BP p.l.c. 2016
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1965 2000 2035
ChinaUSWorldEUIndiaAfrica
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1965 2000 2035
GDP
Primary energy
Index (1965=100)
Global GDP and energy
2016 Energy Outlook
World GDP and energy demand Energy intensity by region
Toe per thousand $2010 GDP
5
© BP p.l.c. 2016 2016 Energy Outlook
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1985 1995 2005 2015
% per annum, 20-year moving average
Historical growth rates
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
China World China World
Annual growth rates 2014-35
% per annum
GDP
Primary energy
Base case
GDP Primary energy
Slower global GDP growth
6
© BP p.l.c. 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
1965 2000 2035
1965-2014
1994-2014
Base case
Flat demand
2016 Energy Outlook
World energy demand
Billion toe
Decline in world energy intensity
-4%-3%-2%-1%0%
1965-2014
1994-2014
Base case2014-35
Flat demand
% per annum
Energy intensity and energy demand
Fastest 20-year average
7
© BP p.l.c. 2016 2016 Energy Outlook
Q: What drives energy demand?
A: Global economic growth
8
© BP p.l.c. 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1965 2000 2035
2016 Energy Outlook
*Includes biofuels
Annual demand growth by fuel
0
50
100
150
200
250
1994-2014 2014-35
Renew.*
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Mtoe per annum
Shares of primary energy
Oil
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear Renewables*
Fuel mix
9
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key factors shaping the fuel mix
2016 Energy Outlook
What have we learned about US shale?
China’s changing energy needs
Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels
10
© BP p.l.c. 2016
0
2
4
6
8
2005 2015 2025 2035
2013 20142015 2016
Mb/d
US tight oil forecasts
0
30
60
90
2005 2015 2025 2035
US shale gas forecasts
Bcf/d
2016 Energy Outlook
Forecast year:
US tight oil and shale gas
11
© BP p.l.c. 2016 2016 Energy Outlook
Global tight oil and shale gas
Tight oil
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005-15 2015-25 2025-35
Mb/d
Ten year supply increments:
Bcf/d
0
10
20
30
40
2005-15 2015-25 2025-35
S & C America
Middle East
Europe & Eurasia
Africa
Asia Pacific
North America
Shale gas
12
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Shares of total oil/gas production
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Shale gas
Tight oil
Market shares of tight oil and shale gas
2016 Energy Outlook 13
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Shares of total oil/gas production
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Shale gas
Tight oil
Market shares of tight oil and shale gas
2016 Energy Outlook 14
Stronger shale case
Stronger shale case
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key factors shaping the fuel mix
2016 Energy Outlook
What have we learned about US shale?
China’s changing energy needs
Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels
15
© BP p.l.c. 2016
GDP and primary energy growth
% per annum
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2000-14 2014-25 2025-35
GDP
Primary energy
2016 Energy Outlook
China’s changing energy needs
0%
40%
80%
1985 2010 2035
Coal
Oil
Gas
Non-fossils
Shares of primary energy
16
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Key factors shaping the fuel mix
2016 Energy Outlook
What have we learned about US shale?
China’s changing energy needs
Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels
17
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Renewables in power forecasts
Mtoe
0
500
1000
1500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2016 20152014 20132012 2011
2016 Energy Outlook
Forecast year:
Renewables and other non-fossil fuels
18
© BP p.l.c. 2016
-400
-200
0
200
400
2015 2020 2025 2030
Renewables HydroBiofuels NuclearTotal
Renewables in power forecasts
Mtoe
Revisions to non-fossil fuels vs 2011 Outlook Mtoe
0
500
1000
1500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2016 20152014 20132012 2011
2016 Energy Outlook
Forecast year:
Renewables and other non-fossil fuels
19
© BP p.l.c. 2016 2016 Energy Outlook
Mb/d
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2014 OECDdecline
Non-OECDgrowth
2014 Non-OPECgrowth
OPECgrowth
Other
India
Mid East
China
Other
Other Asia
2035 level
Brazil
US
Demand Supply
Oil demand and supply
20
© BP p.l.c. 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1965 2000 2035
TransportIndustryOtherPower
2016 Energy Outlook
Mb/d
Liquids fuel demand by sector Vehicle fleet
Billion vehicles
0
1
2
3
1965 2000 2035
Non-OECDOECD
Oil demand
21
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Natural gas
2016 Energy Outlook
Gas production by type and region
0
125
250
375
500
1990 2005 2020 2035
Non-OECD shaleOECD shaleNon-OECD otherOECD other
Bcf/d
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1990 2005 2020 2035
Total trade
Pipeline
LNG
Shares of global gas consumption
22
© BP p.l.c. 2016 2016 Energy Outlook
Changing outlook for carbon emissions
23
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Carbon emissions
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
% per annum
1994-2014 2014-35
GDP
CO2
Decline in energy intensity
Decline in carbon intensity
2016 Energy Outlook 24
© BP p.l.c. 2016
0
10
20
30
40
1975 1995 2015 2035
Base caseFaster transitionIEA 450
Billion tonnes CO2
Carbon emissions
2016 Energy Outlook
Outlook for carbon emissions
25
© BP p.l.c. 2016
0
10
20
30
40
1975 1995 2015 2035
Base caseFaster transitionIEA 450
Billion tonnes CO2
Carbon emissions
2016 Energy Outlook
Outlook for carbon emissions
26
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%-3%-2%-1%0%
Changes in intensity
Energy intensity
Carbon intensity
IEA 450
Base case
1994-2014
% per annum
© BP p.l.c. 2016
0
10
20
30
40
1975 1995 2015 2035
Base caseFaster transitionIEA 450
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%-3%-2%-1%0%
Changes in intensity
Energy intensity
Carbon intensity
IEA 450
Base case
1994-2014
Billion tonnes CO2
Carbon emissions
Faster transition
% per annum
2016 Energy Outlook
Outlook for carbon emissions
27
© BP p.l.c. 2016
CO2 0
1
2
3
4
5
1965 2000 2035
Hydro & Nuclear Renewables*
Billion toe
Oil
Coal Gas
Consumption by fuel
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1994-2014
Basecase
Fastertransition
Renew.*HydroNuclearCoalGasOilTotal
Mtoe per annum
2014-35 *Includes biofuels
Annual demand growth by fuel
Impact of faster transition case
2016 Energy Outlook 28
© BP p.l.c. 2016
Conclusions
2016 Energy Outlook
Global demand for energy continues to rise
− to power increased levels of activity as the world economy continues to grow
Fuel mix changes significantly
− coal losing, renewables gaining, and oil and gas combined holding steady
Growth rate of carbon emissions slows sharply
− but further policy changes are needed
29
BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition
Outlook to 2035
bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats