the outlook for energy · exxonmobil 2012 outlook for energy 0 20 40 60 80 100 2000 2010 2020 2030...

The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040

Kyle CountrymanMarch 6, 2012

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

100 countries

15 demandsectors

20 fueltypes

Energy Outlook Model

technology & policy

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr.

2010 – 2040

0.9%

Energy Demand

Energy Saved ~500

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2015 20400

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

1990 2015 2040

Global Progress Drives Demand

BillionPopulation GDP

Trillion 2005$


2010 – 2040

0.8%


2010 – 2040

2.9%

OECD

Non OECD

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

0

50

100

150

200

250

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar /Biofuels

Hydro / Geo

0.7%

Quadrillion BTUs

Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

2010

2040

-0.2%

1.6%

2.2% 0.3%

6.0% 1.6%

Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040

0.9%


0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 20400

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

U.S. Energy Demand and Supply

By SectorQuadrillion BTUs

By FuelQuadrillion BTUs

Transportation

Industrial

Electricity Generation

Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Coal

NuclearBiomass

Other Renewables


Electricity GenerationElectricity Generation

+80%By 2040, worldwide

electricity demand will be

80% higher.


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2015 2040

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge

k TWhBy Sector

Transportation

Industrial

Residential/Commercial

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUsFuel Into Electricity Generation

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Coal

Wind

Renewables


k TWh

0

15

30

45

2000 2010 2020 2030 20400

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

U.S. Electricity Demand

Electricity Generation by FuelQuadrillion BTUs

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Electricity

Heavy Industry

Other Industry

Residential

Commercial

TransportationWind & Solar

Other Renewables


0

5

10

15

20

Coal Gas Nuclear Wind * Coal-CarbonCapture

Gas-CarbonCapture

EnhancedGeo-

Thermal

Solar PV* SolarThermal*

$0/ton CO2

2011 cents/kWh

Economic Choices for U.S. ElectricityBaseload, Startup 2030

*Wind and solar exclude costs for backup capacity and additional transmission


0

5

10

15

20

Coal Gas Nuclear Wind * Coal-CarbonCapture

Gas-CarbonCapture

EnhancedGeo-

Thermal

Solar PV* SolarThermal*

$60/ton CO2

2011 cents/kWh

Economic Choices for U.S. ElectricityBaseload, Startup 2030

*Wind and solar exclude costs for backup capacity and additional transmission


TransportationTransportation

90%By 2040, 90% of

transportation will run on

liquid petroleum-based fuels.


0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000 2020 2040

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by TypeMillion Vehicles

Conv. Gasoline

Conv. Diesel

Hybrid

PHV/EVNatural gas/LPG

Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

US Europe China Japan India

On-Road MPG

2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

US Europe China Japan India

Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040On-Road MPG

2010

2020-2025 Target2015 Target

Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency


0

5

10

15

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

U.S. Transportation Demand & Fleet Shift

TransportationMBDOE

Light Duty

Aviation

Heavy Duty

MarineRail

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Light Duty Vehicle FleetMillion Cars

Conv. Diesel

Hybrid

PHV/EV

CNG/LPG

Conv. Gasoline


SupplySupply

By 2040

60%of global demand will be supplied by oil & gas.


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

MBDOELiquids Supply

Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify

Conventional Crude and Condensate

Oil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

Tight Oil

Biofuels

0

1

2

3

4

5

2040

Remaining Resource

Cumulative Production

TBOResource *

* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS.


Canada ~2.5 MBDOE

U.S. Gross Liquid Imports

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Mexico ~1.3 MBDOE

Latin America ~2.3 MBDOE

Africa ~2.3 MBDOE

Middle East ~1.7 MBDOE

Europe ~0.7 MBDOE

Russia/Caspian ~0.7 MBDOE

Asia Pacific ~0.2 MBDOE

Total Gross Imports ~12 MBDOE

OPEC ~5 MBDOE

Non-OPEC ~7 MBDOE

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

North America

Europe OECD

Asia Pacific

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

1000 TCF

Conventional

Unconventional

1.3

4.1

2.6

2.3

8.1

4.9

4.8

Global Gas Resource

Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD

• World: ~250 years coverage at current demand

• Large unconventional gains anticipatedWorld

Russia/Caspian*


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 20400

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 20400

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

Gas Supply Grows and Diversifies

BCFDUnited States

Local Production

Unconventional

LNG

BCFDEurope Asia Pacific

BCFD

Conventional

Pipeline


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1850 1900 1950 2000

Transition to Modern Energy / Technology

US Energy DemandPercent

Source: Energy Information Agency & ExxonMobil

Wood Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil

the outlook for energy · exxonmobil 2012 outlook for energy 0 20 40 60 80 100 2000 2010 2020 2030...

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