bp energy outlook 2030 - energy information administration · energy outlook 2030 5 ©bp 2011...
TRANSCRIPT
BP Energy Outlook 2030
Washington,�DC��26�April�2011
Energy Outlook 2030 2 © BP 2011
Global trends
US particulars
What can bend the trend?
Outline
Energy Outlook 2030 3 © BP 2011
Non-OECD economies drive consumption growth
Billion toe Billion toe
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
OECD
Non-OECD
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
*
* Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2030 4 © BP 2011
Gas and renewables win as fuel shares converge
Shares of world primary energy Contributions to growth
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1970 1990 2010 2030
Oil
Coal
Gas
Hydro
NuclearRenewables*
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
1970-
1990
1990-
2010
2010-
2030
Renewables*
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
* Includes biofuels
Energy Outlook 2030 5 © BP 2011
Industry and power generation dominate energy growth
Billion toe
Growth of world energy consumption 2010-30
Billion toe
by sector and fuelby sector and region
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Transport
Industry
Other
Hydro
Nuclear
Renew.
Electricity
Gas
Biofuels
Oil
Coal
Final energy use Inputs to power
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Transport
Industry
Other
OtherNon-OECD
MiddleEast
China &
India
OECD
Final energy use Inputs to power
Energy Outlook 2030 6 © BP 2011
Liquids balance – demand and supply
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2010 OECD
Declines
Non-
OECD
Growth
2010 Non-
OPEC
Growth
Non-
OPEC
Declines
OPEC
Growth
Mb/d Demand Supply
Other
Asia
Mid East
China
NGLs
Iraq
Other
S&C Am
Other
SaudiOil Sands
Biofuels
BrazilFSU
2030 level
Energy Outlook 2030 7 © BP 2011
Policies to constrain carbon emissions gradually tighten
Billion tonnes CO2
by fuelby region
Index (1990=100)
Global CO2 emissions from energy use
Billion tonnes CO2
vs GDP and energy
0
10
20
30
40
1990 2010 2030
Oil
Gas
Coal
0
10
20
30
40
1990 2010 2030
OECD
Non-OECD
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990 2010 2030
GDP
Energy
CO2
Energy Outlook 2030 8 © BP 2011
US consumption flat, natural gas & renewables gain share
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
OilOECD
Non-OECD
*
* Includes biofuels
Billion toe
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1970 1990 2010 2030
Shares of primary energy
Renewables*Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Coal
Oil
Primary energy consumption
Energy Outlook 2030 9 © BP 2011
US power generation grows while transport declines
by sector and fuel
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Transport Industry Other
Hydro
Nuclear
Renew.
Electricity
Gas
Biofuels
Oil
Coal
Final energy use Inputs to power
Change in US energy consumption 2010-30
Million toe
Energy Outlook 2030 10 © BP 2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 2010 2030
Electricity
Gas
Biofuels
Oil
US transport demand contracts despite biofuels growth
Passenger car fuel economyEnergy in transport
Mtoe Miles/gallon*
* New sales average
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2020 2030
US
China
Japan
OECD Europe
Energy Outlook 2030 11 © BP 2011
Unconventional gas will play a growing role
Bcf/dChina
Bcf/dNorth America
Bcf/dEurope
Sources of gas supply, by region
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 2010 2030
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 2010 2030
Pipeline
LNG
Column 4
Syngas from
coal
Shale gas and
CBM
Conventional
(inc tight gas)0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 2010 2030
Net imports:
Domestic
production:
Energy Outlook 2030 12 © BP 2011
Alternative case: Stronger policy action on climate change
CO2 emissions from energy use Sources of carbon abatement
versus Base Case, 2030
Iraq
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2010 2020 2030
Base Case
Policy
Case
IEA “450 Scenario” *
Billion tonnes CO2
* a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010
20302020
5.4 billion tonnes
reduction CCS
Fuel
switching
Energy
efficiency
Energy Outlook 2030 13 © BP 2011
US: Impact of climate policy case
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Primary energy consumption
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100 Primary
Energy
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables
in power
Base Case
Climate
Policy Case
Differences from Base Case, 2030
Billion toe Mtoe
-4.4%
-7%
-38%
+6% +31%
+6%
+10%
Energy Outlook 2030 14 © BP 2011
OECD EuropeMtoe US China
Implications for energy security
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1990 2010 20301990 2010 20301990 2010 2030
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Oil & gas
production
Oil & gas
consumption
Net imports as % of consumption (rhs):
1990 – 2030 1990 – 2030 1990 – 2030
GasOil
Energy Outlook 2030 15 © BP 2011
Conclusion
Energy consumption driven by non-OECD; US flat
Fuel mix – diversifying
Carbon emissions – too high globally; falling in the US
Regional and policy trends – mixed; positive for US import
dependence
Energy Outlook 2030 16 © BP 2011
Q & A
www.bp.com/energyoutlook2030
Also:
www.bp.com/statisticalreview
BP Energy Outlook 2030
Washington,�DC��26�April�2011