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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Implications for Agriculture in the Asia-Pacific Region

Andrew AshInterim DirectorCSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship

Climate change is occurring and is due to human activities *

* From: IPCC, 2007: Summary for Poicymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

We are currently tracking at the very high end of emission scenarios and temperature projections

Rahmstorf et al.

Climate change is projected to continue15-model average changes in temperature by 2030, relative to 1990

Suppiah et al (in prep)

Low CO2 emission scenario

Temperature change (°C)

High CO2 emission scenario

Projections of Future Changes in Climate

Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes

Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions

Summary of Projected Climate Changes

• Temperature to increase 3oC by 2050 and 5oC by 2070 over land areas

• Lower increases in temperature in maritime environments

• Precipitation increases in high latitudes (temperate) but a drying in mid-latitudes (sub-tropics) over Asia

• Equatorial tropical zone – uncertain but little mean change expected

• No increase in cyclone frequency but intensity could increase by 10-20%

• Accelerated melting of glaciers – 65% of China’s glaciers will not exist by 2050 with current and projected warming trends

• Sea level rise modest in IPCC projections (c. 50cm) but estimates don’t include significant ice melt

Table 2.3. Reported Natural Disasters in the Pacific Islands (1950-2004)

Event Number Fatalities Population Affected

Losses (millions 2004

US$)

Windstorms 157 1,380 2,496,808 5,903.90

Droughts 10 0 629,580 137.00

Floods 8 40 246,644 94.80

Earthquakes 17 53 22,254 330.60

Others 15 274 21,520+ 60.00

Vulnerability to extreme events

Vulnerability to sea level rise

Vulnerability of Asian Sectors Related to Agriculture to Climate Change

Regions Food and Fibre Water Resources

Coastal Ecosystems

Arid and semi-arid Asia

Central Asia Highly vulnerable Highly vulnerable

Moderately vulnerable

Tibetan Plateau Slightly or not vulnerable

Moderately vulnerable

Not applicable

Temperate Asia Highly vulnerable Highly vulnerable

Highly vulnerable

Tropical Asia and Small Island States

South Asia Highly vulnerable Highly vulnerable

Highly vulnerable

Southeast Asia Highly vulnerable Highly vulnerable

Highly vulnerable

Sectoral vulnerability

Impacts on agriculture

Four main climate related drivers on agriculture:

• Elevated carbon dioxide

• Rainfall and associated water resource availability

• Temperature – both direct and indirect through evaporation

• Extreme weather events (wind, flood damage)

These interact to affect agricultural productivity, quality, pests and diseases.

• Benefits of elevated CO2 lost as temperatures increase

• Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes for local warmings of 1-3o C, then decrease for greater warming

• Crop productivity is projected to decrease for local warmings of 1-2o C at lower latitudes, e.g. tropics, which would increase risk of hunger. Decreases in revenue up to 25%

• Monsoon more variable and increased damage from cyclones

• Agricultural irrigation demand in sub-tropical semi-arid zones (lower precipitation, higher evaporation) likely to be 10% per degree of warming

• Northward shift of agricultural zones in Asia (single, double, tri-planting)

• Commercial timber productivity is projected to rise modestly

• Likely impacts on fisheries but outcomes are uncertain

Impacts on agriculture and food security

Adapting to Climate Change

Adaptation involves both the actions of adjusting practices, processes and capital in response to the actuality or threat of climate change as well as changes in the decision environment such as social and institutional structures.

Adaptation helps to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences of climate change.

Mitigation of climate change refers to those response strategies that reduce the sources of greenhouse gases or enhance their sinks, to subsequently reduce the probability of reaching a given level of climate change

Adapting to climate change

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Stationary Climate & Coping Range

Changing Climate

Planning Horizon

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Adaptation

Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Stationary Climate & Coping Range

Changing Climate

Planning Horizon

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Adaptation

Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range

Tropical Asia

• Adjust cropping calendar and crop rotation to deal with climatic variability and extremes

• Develop and promote use of high-yielding varieties and sustainable technological applications

Semi-arid and arid Asia

• Change in agriculture system (introduction of humidity-preserving technologies, application of advanced agro-technical measures, and the introduction of new frost resistant, low water use and drought-resistant high-yielding varieties)

• Reconstruction of existing irrigation system (introduction of sprinkling and drip irrigation)

Adaptation in agriculture

Conclusion – Winners and Losers

Between agricultural industries

Between regions

Impacts are on economic, environmental and social

components of the system

Degree of impact will depend on adaptation