December 2002

Section 8Section 8

AdaptationAdaptation

Addressing Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaptation

Climate Changeincluding variability

Impactsautonomous adaptation

Responses

Mitigationvia GHG sources

and sinks Planned

Adaptation

Mitigation will slow down the rate and magnitude of change, but cannot stop it

In fact, temperature will continue to rise for centuries, and sea levels for millennia after CO2 stabilization

Therefore, we must adapt as well as mitigate

• Early actions to reduce risks will likely be less costly and buy more time to adapt

• Anticipatory adaptive actions can also reduce risks by preparing for adverse effects and capitalizing on benefits

• The more rapid the warming, the greater the challenge to adapt

• There will also be residual impacts that cannot be prepared for

Adaptation is:• an adjustment in practices, processes, or structures

of systems to projected or actual changes of climate• that can occur in response to, or in anticipation of,

changes in conditions

What is adaptation?

To:

1 Minimize the negative impacts of future climate changes, and

2 Take advantage of new opportunities that may be presented

Adaptation is a necessary strategy at all scales to complement climate change mitigation efforts

Vulnerability:

Is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate, including climate variability and extremes.

Is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

A critical concept related to impacts and adaptation is vulnerability

Risk Assessment must take adaptation into account

Climate variable

TH1

Copingrange

TH2

TH1

Some economic considerations for Canada

• Between 20 and 60% of GDP is sensitive to the changes in weather and climate

• Between 1985 and 1999, extreme weather events caused Canadian economic losses of more than $14 billion, and 240 deaths

• The net impact of a global warming on Canada’s GDP remains very uncertain, and depends on the success of adaptation strategies

Adaptation works

Winnipeg floodwayCost today: $330 million

Old Man River Damcost in 1990: $430 million

Adaptation also has costs

Potential Waterloo toLake Huron water pipeline:~ $500 million

There are gaps and uncertainties in adaptation

policy development

• Policies of the past may not work in the future• Analysis of adaptation issues and options not

far advanced• Analytical information has not yet been

developed– social– economic

– environmental

Hence adaptation is a key part of the response

“Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on long-term projects…based on the assumption that past climate data…are a reliable guide to the future. This is no longer a good assumption…”

UNEP/WMO/ICSU ConferenceVillach, Austria 1985