ADAPTATION ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGETO CLIMATE CHANGETO CLIMATE CHANGETO CLIMATE CHANGE

Needs, Opportunities, & Vulnerability MappingNeeds, Opportunities, & Vulnerability Mapping

EEPSEA, August 2011EEPSEA, August 2011

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O tli f T lkOutline of Talk

•• Overview of Climate Change impactsOverview of Climate Change impacts

•• Economics of adaptation:Economics of adaptation: net benefits, financial requirements & availablefinancial requirements & available funding

•• Reducing cost/burden of adaptation:Reducing cost/burden of adaptation:Role of institutions & ResearchRole of institutions & Research

•• Suggestions on way to move forwardSuggestions on way to move forward2

gg ygg y

Potential Climate Change ImpactsPotential Climate Change ImpactsHealthWeather-related mortalityInfectious diseasesAir-quality respiratory illnessesIndividual well-beingAgricultureCrop yieldsIrrigation demandsPest outbreaks

g

Pest outbreaks

ForestsChange in forest compositionShift geographic range of forestsF t h lth d d ti it

Climate Changes(means, variances, extremes)

Water ResourcesChanges in water supply

Forest health and productivityPest outbreaksTemperature

P i it ti Changes in water supplyWater qualityIncreased competition for water

Coastal AreasE i f b hSea Level Rise

Precipitation

Erosion of beachesInundation of coastal landsCosts to protect coastal communities

Species & Natural Areas

Sea Level Rise

Adapted from EPA b d t ti b Ch l K l t dUCSB Bren School of Environmental Science & Management

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Species & Natural AreasShift in ecological zonesLoss of habitat and species

based on presentation by Charles Kolstad

Worldwide...75% of the economic losses (1980-2005) are related to hydro-meteorological hazardsare related to hydro meteorological hazards

Slides 0.4%

i d

Wild Fires 2.45%

Flood 28%

Windstorm 38%

Extreme Temperature

1.8%E th k

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED

Drought5%

Earthquake24%

Tsunami Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database -www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels -Belgium

1%

Maryam Golnaraghi World Meteorological Organization

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Maryam Golnaraghi, World Meteorological Organization

…and these economic losses are rising over timeg

GeologicalBillions of USD per decade495

450

500

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Billions of USD per decade

345

300

350

400

160

103150

200

250

4 11 1424

47

88103

50

100

150

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database -

d t t U i ité C th li

056-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05 decade

Maryam Golnaraghi World Meteorological Organization

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www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

Maryam Golnaraghi, World Meteorological Organization

In Asia, increasing weather disturbances are felt everywhereare felt everywhere

6Perez, Rosa (2006)

• Between 1980 and 2005: -Asia accounts for about 90% of those affected by natural disasters worldwide (>50% of economic losses).)

• IPCC, 2001: A 40-cm sea level rise by 2080 could displace asdisplace as

many as 21 million people in Southeast Asia

• A 2007 World Bank study on sea level rise

60M people in developing countries of the world will be di l d b 1 SLR f Vi t 11% f itdisplaced by 1 m SLR, for Vietnam 11% of its

population will have to relocate.

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Strategies to deal with climate change risks

• Climate Change Mitigation and Climate Change Adaptationare two complementary risk management strategies:

Global Climate Change

are two complementary risk management strategies:

Global Climate Change

MITIGATION ADAPTATION

Greenhouse Climate change

MITIGATION ADAPTATION

gas emissionsg

impacts

• Reduce magnitude of global warming • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions

• Reduce vulnerability to CC impacts• Reduce human and material losses

8(Laganda, Gernoit, UNDP.2008)

Adaptation MeasuresAdaptation Measures

• technological—building of river and sea dykes; y ;

• behavioural—changes in food and recreational choices;recreational choices;

• managerial—changing cropping patterns or choice of crops; and

• policy—imposing new planning• policy—imposing new planning regulations.

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• Examples of Adaptation Measures in Agriculture

10Adaptation measures in Agriculture (source: IPCC/WG II, 2007)

Adaptation measures/strategies of households for climate-Adaptation measures/strategies of households for climaterelated disasters, Philippines, Predo (2008)

Adaptation Measure/Strategy*

Item Frequency Percent p gy

Relocate residence to safe place permanently 15 13.8 Transfer to evacuation area temporarily 43 39.4 Restructure housing unit 41 37 6Restructure housing unit 41 37.6Build stone breakwaters 17 15.6 Improve dike system or canal near residence 21 19.3 Ch l d fi di i 3 2 8Change land use to fit new condition 3 2.8Change livelihood and sources of income 5 4.6 Prepare household needs and safety precautions 14 12.8

*Multiple response

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Stern Report: Adaptation makes economic sense

12Stern Review, 2006

Adaptation Pays… d p o ys

• Global Vulnerability Assessment (GVA) of coastal communities in several countries shows…

that coastal adaptation could reduce the number of people at risk from flooding by almost 90% atof people at risk from flooding by almost 90% at an annual cost of around 0.06 percent of the GDP

• For agriculture—studies show that adaptation could result in avoided yield losses of as much as 30%.

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How much do developing countries’ need for d t ti ?adaptation?

• The World Bank estimates that between USD 10–40 billion• The World Bank estimates that between USD 10 40 billion will be needed to assist developing countries for new infrastructure alone.

• The UNDP Human Development report estimated that developing countries would need around USD 86 billion per p g pyear for adaptation by 2015, a value that corresponds to about 0.2% of rich nations’ GDPs

• Costs of adaptation: USD 50 bn/yr (Oxfam) (Tamura, 2007)

– Scaling up urgent adaptation needsScaling up urgent adaptation needs– Scaling up NGO community-based initiatives

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How much funds are available for adaptation?

1.0 The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol Funds

p

Status as of April 2007(Tamura K 2007)

Type of commit’t Total funds mobilized

1.0 The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol Funds

(Tamura, K. 2007) mobilized1. Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF)

voluntary US$62.1m

2. Least Developed Countries Fund (LDC Fund)

voluntary US$115.8m

3 S i P i i Ad i l US$503. Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA-GEF Trust Fund)

voluntary US$50m

4. Adaptation Fund A 2% levy on Best estimate of4. Adaptation Fund A 2% levy on CDM projects

Best estimate of US$450m by 2012

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2.0 Bilateral and multilateral channels: WB, ADB, UNEP, UNDP,

• In August 2007: Rockefeller Foundation announced a $70 million

CIDA, DFID, IFAD, OXFAM, etc.

• In August 2007: Rockefeller Foundation announced a $70 million program on "climate-change resilience" for developing countries.

• September, 2008: thru the World Bank, 10 leading industrialized nations -- including the United States, Japan and the UK -- have pledged a total of $6 1 billion as "Climate Investment Funds"pledged a total of $6.1 billion as Climate Investment Funds .

• DFID is a major player supporting adaptation programs in Africa and probably in Asia and Latin America soonprobably in Asia and Latin America, soon.

• Different Aid and development agencies are also supporting climate adaptation initiativesadaptation initiatives.

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Fact: the available funds account for a very small percentage of what developing countries would

need for adaptation (1%-2%)

CHALLENGE: Find ways to reduce the burden of adaptationburden of adaptation.

•• Risk SharingRisk Sharing:: Community-based adaptation initiatives integrated in disaster management

•• Risk TransferRisk Transfer:: weather-index based micro-insurance schemes

• Research to identify efficient/cost effective adaptation options in vulnerable sectors (e.g. agriculture, coastal communities, etc)

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ResearchResearch

• Economic analysis of adaptation options• Economic analysis of adaptation options

• Understanding determinants of autonomous adaptation and level of planned adaptation requiredplanned adaptation required

• How to enhancing adaptive capacity of households, communities and local government unitsand local government units

• Agriculture: seeds more resistant to droughts and climate variations in generalin general

• Health: How to deal with massive spread of diseases that extreme climate change may bring aboutclimate change may bring about

• Coastal: assessment of infrastructure and/or relocation of people and resources from coastal zones vulnerable to increased flooding

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and resources from coastal zones vulnerable to increased flooding, hurricanes, and others.

Bottom line

• There are some funds available from the international sources that countries should takeinternational sources that countries should take advantage of.

• Still—internationally sourced-adaptation funds are limited relative to needs more so in the faceare limited relative to needs, more so in the face of the on-going global financial crisis.

• Countries must find ways to reduce burden of adaptation and use the limited adaptation fundsadaptation and use the limited adaptation funds efficiently.

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Vulnerability mapping as a tool

• Vulnerability assessment at sub-national levelsnational levels

• Socio-economic dimension of vulnerability assessment

P bli di i & R h• Public discussions & Research …appropriate CC-policies

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAPPING

Climatic Hazards

Vulnerability to

CLIMATE CHANGE

IPCC FRAMEWORK

Climatic Hazards

Tropical Cyclones

Drought Flood

Landslide Sea level rise

Sensitivity

Population Extent ofPopulation Density

Extent of Protected Area

Adaptive Capacity

SocioeconomisSocioeconomis• Human Development Index (Income, Longevity, Education) • Poverty Incidence• Inequality• Inequality

TechnologyTechnology• Electricity Coverage• Extent of Irrigation

InfrastructureInfrastructure• Road Density• Communication

Adaptive CapacityAdaptive Capacity

l d 0 50

SOCIO ECONOMICS

Human Development Index

Standard of Living

0.50

1/30 50SOCIO-ECONOMICSLongevity

Education

1/3

1/3

0.50

Poverty Incidence 0.28

I I lit 0 22ADAPTIVE aj

TECHNOLOGY

Income Inequality 0.22

Electricity Coverage 0.53

CAPACITY

0.25

aj

TECHNOLOGY

Extent of Irrigation 0.47

0.25

INFRASTRUCTURERoad Density 0.50

Communication 0.50

0.25

Vulnerability, Vj = (1/3) ej + (1/3) sj + (1/3) aj

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAPPING, 2009

LaosLegendCli t Ch V l bilit

Vulnerability

Climatic HazardsPhilippinesThailand

Laos

Vietnam

Climate Change Vulnerability0.00 - 0.06

0.06 - 0.11

0.11 - 0.15

0.15 - 0.20

0.20 - 0.25to

CLIMATE CHANGECambodia

0.20 0.25

0.25 - 0.31

0.31 - 0.39

0.39 - 0.49

0.49 - 0.66

0.66 - 1.00

Malaysia

Indonesia® IPCC FRAMEWORK ®0 550 1,100275 Kilometers

SEA Mapping shows: • Climate Hotspots:

Bi t f Phili i C b di & L PDR– Big parts of Philippines; Cambodia & Lao PDR – Mekong River Delta– Bangkok– Bangkok– West Sumatra, South Sumatra, Western Java, and

Eastern Java of Indonesia

• Adaptive capacity is generally critical in reducing• Adaptive capacity is generally critical in reducing vulnerability

• Key cities in SEA are vulnerable!

Vulnerability Components ComparisonComparison

Hazards dominate Sensitivity dominates Low Adaptive capacity dominatescapacity dominates

Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia

1. Manila2 Benguet

Top 10 most vu lnerable prov inces

• Climate hazards exposure2. Benguet3. Batanes4. Ilocos

Sur5. Rizal

Climate hazards exposure accounts for 75% - 90% for most places

Batanes(3)

6. Bataan7. Batangas8. Bulacan9. Abra10 Albay

• For Manila—sensitivity also plays a dominant role

Legend

0.46

10. Albay

• For Batanes, exposure+ecological

Albay

EXPOSURE

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

SENSITIVITY (10)

exposure+ecological sensitivity are critical.

AbBulacan(8)Abra

Ilocos SurRizal

BataanManila

(1)(4)

(5)(6)

(8)(9)

BenguetBatangas(2) (7)

Mapping as a decision making tool• Visualization aid Vulnerable/hot spots;

• It enables us …to bring the socioeconomic dimensions in vulnerability assessment

• Allows downscaling of Vulnerability Assessment: sub-national levels (590 provinces/districts)

• Facilitates discussions of major stakeholders• Media Citations National Debate/discussions Local government interests Blog discussions on the methods/areas for improvement

• Potential: Sub-national Decision Support system (Pilot testing)

Thank you,Thank you, comments are most welcome.

Herminia A. FranciscoArief Yusuf Anshory

(hfrancisco@idrc.org.sg; arief.yusuf@fe.unpad.ac.id)

Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia

SWEDISH INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION AGENCYSida Canadian International Development Agency

Agence Canadienne de Développment International

Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia