Why climate-smart agricultureRegional Asia-Pacific Workshop on Climate Smart Agriculture: A Call for Action

Bangkok, 18 June 2015Suan Pheng Kam http://www.worldfishcenter.org/

The Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) is one of the 16 CRPs

The three pillars of climate-smart agriculture

Enhance achievement of agricultural development and national food security goals

• FAO (2010) defines climate-smart agriculture as consisting of three main pillars:

1. Sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and incomes;

2. Building resilience to climate change (through adaptation); and

3. Reducing and/or removing greenhouse gases emissions where possible (through mitigation)

Why climate-smart agriculture in the Asia-Pacific region

THE ASIA-PACIFIC IS AN ENORMOUSLY DIVERSE REGION THAT IS VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE1

1Agriculture in the broad sense: crops, livestock, fish production

• >60% of world’s population; >50% of population in coastal zones• Agriculture dominates land use • A leading producer of food commodities

• Largest producer of rice and animal products regionally• India is the largest producer of milk• China is the largest producer of pigs and aquaculture products• Thailand and Vietnam together form the largest exporters of shrimp and

catfish• 87% of world’s smallholder farms, mainly rainfed

Why climate-smart agriculture in the Asia-Pacific region

Asia-Pacific: challenges for agriculture

• Population is growing • Increasing demand for agricultural products – food, fibre, fuel• Average calorie consumption is rising• 60% more food will be needed by 2050, to be produced on

less land and water (i.e. sustainable intensification)• The future of agriculture in the Asia Pacific region

depends on it being climate smart

Changing climate: warmer, wetter, wierder

‘Virtually certain’• Warming of atmosphere and oceans• Diminishing of snow, ice and permafrost

‘Very likely’ • Fewer cold days and nights, more hot days and nights• Warm spells/heat waves• Generally wetter, some areas drier• Faster sea level rise, in 95% of ocean area

‘Likely’• Heavy rainfall events over more areas• Area affected by drought increases; delay in onset of rains• Intense extreme coastal events increase

Source: IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers

Changing climate: warmer, wetter, wierder

Risks from changing climate

Source: IPCC Climate change 2014 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers

Increasing risk

CLIMATE CHANGE IS AFFECTING CROP YIELDS

Mean relative yield change (%) from reference period (1980–2010) compared to local mean temperature change (°C) Source: Rosenzweig et al., 2014

Median yield change (%) for RCP8.5 with CO2 effects for main crops, without and with explicit N stressSource: Rosenzweig et al., 2014

The costs of not being climate smart

Source: Myers et al., 2014. Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition. Nature DOI:10.1038/Nature13179

The costs of not being climate smartCLIMATE CHANGE IS AFFECTING NUTRITIONAL QUALITY OF FOOD

Countries below the dashed line are part of the Low-Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDC) 2014 list. Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao’s People’s Democratic Republic and Vanuatu were in the 2010 LIFDC list.

The costs of not being climate smartCLIMATE CHANGE WILL AFFECT HUMAN NUTRITIONAL BALANCE

The costs of not being climate smartCLIMATE CHANGE IS AFFECTING FISH PRODUCTION

The costs of not being climate smart

How climate change might affect plans to derive livelihoods from fisheries and aquaculture in the Pacific

CLIMATE CHANGE IS AFFECTING FISH PRODUCTION

Livestock production in the Asia Pacific: largely based on grazing and mixed farming systems•Supports >35% of poor households•By 2020, 30-40% of global milk and meat will be produced in Asia

CC impacts on livestock:•Negative effect of elevated temperature and higher rainfall variability on pasture productivity •Direct effects of elevated temperature and solar radiation on

• production (growth, meat, milk yield and quality, egg yield, weight and quality)

• reproductive performance• animal health, immune response and disease susceptibility

The costs of not being climate smartCLIMATE CHANGE IS AFFECTING LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

Source: wsm.wsu.edu/researcher/wsmaug11_billions.pdf

The costs of not being climate smartARE MOST SEVERELY FELT BY THE POOR

The costs of not being climate smartFOOD PRICES SPIKE IN YEARS OF EXTREME CLIMATE TRIGGER SOCIAL UNREST

Sustainable productivity improvement

Diversification/integration is also intensification in a sustainable way

MANURE

FIELDS

CUT FODDER

LIVESTOCK FISH POND

STUBBLE

POND MUD

Integrated Agriculture-Aquaculture (IAA) boosts farm income

Adaptation measures for greater resilience

Agriculture, forestry and other land use

Mitigation measures

Mitigation measures

- Case of the livestock industry

Complementing climate-smart practices

Farm and food systems issues

Landscapes and regional issues

Institutional and policy issues

Sustainable productivity improvement

Breed crops, livestock, fish for a climate changed world Sustainable intensification and integrated farming of crops, livestock, fish Improve nutrient and water management and flows

Integrated models for prioritizing practices and managing trade-offs Restore degraded farm lands, wetlands and forests

Strengthen science-policy linkage Policy support to overcome barriers to CSAUnderstand trade-offs of diversification vs specializationGender and class equity

Building resilience

Conservation agricultureAdjust crop calendarsUse different crop cultivars and animal species/strainsIntegrated pest, disease and weed management

Shift production areas over a changing landscapeImprove ecosystem services: enhance role of forests and agro-forestry in disaster protection, water and biodiversity provision

Enhanced weather forecasting and advisory services Empower women and the poorPro-poor financing and insurance mechanisms

Reducing GHG emission, enhancing GHG removal

Improve soil carbon storage through good agronomy Develop carbon sequestration options Culture and consume lower down the food chain

Increase energy use efficiency in food supply chainsInnovative use of biomass and by-products

Incentives for pro-poor mitigation

The three pillars of CSA at scale

CSA: No regrets What’s new

1. Increased emphasis on a systems context, drawing on the notion of sustainable intensification to increase productivity with minimal environmental and climate change impacts

2. Longer term perspective on development pathways; climate change is a slow variable

3. More attention on assessing and managing climate risks

4. Greater emphasis on developing capacity to deal with uncertainty and trade-offs

5. Thinking about emissions too

6. Measuring efficacy of adaptation and mitigation efforts

SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM

Global climate and environmental changes

Finite natural resources-Land -Water-Forests-Aquatic resources

DRIVERS OF CHANGE

Population growth and migration

Urbanization

Food availability and access

Culture and behavior

Changing food habits

Poverty

Market forces

Trade

Policies and regulations

Governance

VULNERABILITIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE

CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTURE

AwarenessPlanning

ImplementationMonitoring and evaluation

SCIENCE AND POLICYDESIRED OUTCOMES

Food securityResilient agricultureHealthy livelihoods

ComprehensiveCollaborative

Committed

Modified from Steenwerth, et al., 2014

CSA in the context of the socio-ecological system

Climate-smart agriculture in international development agenda

• Development plans of UN FAO, UN IFAD, World Bank, etc. • Sustainable and food secure pathways in discussions at

• Rio+20 UN Conference on Sustainable Development;• 1st and 2nd Global Conferences on Agriculture, Food

Security and Climate Change; and • Agriculture, Landscapes and Livelihoods Day at COP18

• May 2015 IPCC meeting on CC, Food and Agriculture recognized multi-functionality of agriculture; special report proposed on “Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security”

• June 2015 UNFCC climate talks in Bonn: ensuring agriculture is in the global climate deal (Dec in Paris)

Implementing CSA the holistic way

Embedding climate change in sustainable agriculture

CGIAR’s 2016-2030 Research Strategy and Agenda

– Source: CGIAR CRPII Draft Portfolio Narrative.docxForests

Climate change: a cross-cutting issue

Regional initiatives:•Regional climate outlook•Coordinate agriculture and forestry for sustainable landscapes•Build innovation platforms•Bring science and policy together

CSA: Thinking regionally, acting locally?

Sea-level rise increases tidal and salinity intrusion into low-lying areas of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh •Landscapes become more waterlogged with fresh and saline water at different times of the year•Farmers adapt by shifting from rice mono-cropping to diverse aquaculture-horticulture-rice systems

Climate change adaptation in Bangladesh

Aquaculture-Horticulture- Rice System Fish rings in rice fields – microhabitats for fish

Climate change adaptation in Bangladesh

• WorldFish and local partners provide technical support for aquaculture by• Improving genetics of fishes• Enhancing the capacity of hatcheries to produce quality seed• Strengthening the private feed industry to produce quality feeds and provide

advice on feeding practices• Support community-level efforts to sustain diverse population of local fish

species for culture in farming landscapes

Climate change adaptation in Bangladesh

Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia in Bangladesh (CSISA-BD)Aquaculture for Income and Nutrition (AIN)• Introduce aquaculture to diversify income sources and improve

food and nutrition security, especially among poor and landless rural households

Building adaptive capacity in the Mekong region

Integrating fisheries into local agro-ecosystem analysis for improved water allocationSupporting rice field fisheries and community-based fish cultureIdentify and improve productivity of best practice climate smart Aquaculture & IAA farming systemsOptimizing water harvesting for pond aquaculture operations in flood plainsManaging conflict associated with water allocation and water quality in the Mekong Delta

Building adaptive capacity in the Mekong region

Scenario of increased salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

Source: SIWRP

Floating hapa cages adapted for fish farming in the wet season (left) and in the dry season (right)

Thank You