Climate Smart Agriculture in PakistanCurrent status and Future challenges

Dr. Tasneem KhaliqAssistant Professor

Agro-Climatology Lab., Department of Agronomy

University of Agriculture Faisalabad

Overview

• Introduction• Agriculture Sector Key statistics• Climate of Pakistan • Major Crops grown in Pakistan• Agricultural Problems in Pakistan• Water Availability and Future Scenario• Challenges/ Issues in Agriculture • Available level of climate forecasts• Use of climate forecast in Agriculture• Case studies

Introduction• Land area of Pakistan is 79.6 M ha• Total area under cultivation 23.8 M ha• Contributes 20% to GDP• Employment opportunities for 45% of the country’s labour force• Majority of the rural population depends upon this sector for its

livelihood

Agricultural Sector – Key Statistics

• Contribution to GDP 21.4%

• Labor Force Employment 45.0%• Average Growth during last 6 years 3.7%• Contribution of different Sub-Sectors in Agriculture’s GDP

1. Crops (Wheat, Rice, Cotton, S. cane) 32%2. Livestock 55%3. Fisheries 4.0%4. Forestry 2.0%5. Others 7.0%Share in Export Earnings (Raw/Processed) 1. Cotton + Cotton Based Products 64.7%2. Fruits, Rice, Fish, Leather 18.2%3. Others 17.1%

(Govt. of Pakistan, 2016)

Agriculture universities in Pakistan1. Punjab 112. Sindh 043. KPK 044. Baluchistan 045. Kashmir 026. Gilgit Baltistan 01

Total 26

Organogram of Department of Agriculture

u Arid, semi arid, sub humid and humid

u 2/3 of the area of Pakistan lies under arid climate

u Light brown and dark brown spots indicating aridity in the country

Climatic Classification of Pakistan

Climate of Pakistan

• Subtropical arid zone to semi-arid climate• June is the hottest month (48°C) in the plains • July in the mountainous areas, with temperatures over 38°C, • The mean monthly minimum temp is only 4°C in

December/January• Average annual precipitation is estimated at 494 mm. • Maximum rainfall is1500 mm in the north• Most of the rainfall in Pakistan originates from summer

monsoons

Agro-ecological Zones

Crop distribution in the country

Major Crops

• Cotton

• Wheat

• Rice

• Sugarcane

• Maize

Importance major crops in Pakistan Economy

CropShare

Value addition

Agri. GDP

Area Production Av. Yield

(%) (%) M. Ha M. tons ton/haWheat 9.9 2.0 9.2 25.5 2.75Rice 3.1 0.6 2.75 6.8 2.48

Cotton 5.1 1.0 2.9 10.07 * 0.6Sugarcane 3.2 0.6 1.13 65.48 57.84

* Bales

ProductivityEnhancementCrops Production

1947-48(000 tons)

Production 2013-14

(000 tons)

Times increase

wheat 2637 19470 7Rice 253 3481 14Cotton in 000 bales 735 9526 13Sugarcane 3972 43700 11Maize 168 3719 20Potato 24 3639 152Citrus (1957-58) 79 1930 24Mango (1957-58) 102 1280 13Guava (1957-58) 15 379 25

Agricultural Problems in Pakistan

A. TECHNO-ECONOMIC PROBLEMS• Limited cultivable area• Low yield per unit area• Conventional methods of production• Lack of high efficiency irrigation facilities• Inadequate supply of agricultural inputs• Decreasing availability of water• Lack of R & D and Decision Support System

for site specific production technology

Water Resources of PakistanRainfallAnnual rainfall (125mm in South-East to 750mm North-West)Total water generated by rainfall is around 32 BCMContribution to crops is 10-20%GroundwaterExploitation of Groundwater is 59 BCMOver 9,00,000 private tube wells 40% of total supply at farm-gateSurface Water ResourcesTotal Inflow is 171 BCMTarbela (10.38 BCM - 485 ft),Mangla (5.90 BCM - 380 ft) 48 Canals (61000 km), 19 Barrages1,70,000 Watercourses (1.6 Million km)

Future Water ScenarioYear Population Water availability

(Million) per capita (m3) 1951 34 53001961 46 39501971 65 27001981 84 21001991 115 16002000 148 12002010 168 10662020 196 9152025 209 8502030 220 636

Environmental Issues

• Global warming

• Climate change

• Continuous Floods (2010, 2012, 2013)

• Occurrence of extreme weather events

• Drought

• Increasing Insect/pest infestation

Current Level of Climate Forecast Availability

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) provide following services1. Data recording, generation and dissemination services2. Flood forecast and warning services.3. Farmer's Weather Bulletin and Warning Services.4. Numerical weather forecasting5. Climate change scenarios for Pakistan (AR4, AR5) on resolution of 25km

and 50km6. Seasonal forecast7. Drought monitoring and warning services8. Crop reports9. Seasonal out look Pakistan

Use of Weather/Climate Informationin Agriculture

International PROJECTS YEARS/FUNDING

STATUS/AMOUNT

1.Assessing climatic vulnerability andprojecting crop productivity using integratedcrop and economic modeling techniques

2012-2016AgMIPDFID

Ongoing400000 $

2. International grant on Biochar production,awareness and commercialization to mitigateClimate Change

British Council

Completed60000 $

3. Climate Change Chair under Centre for Advance Studies-Food Security & Agriculture (CAS-FSA)

2013USAIDUSDA

Ongoing28.8 million $

InternationalPROJECTS

YEARS/FUNDING

STATUS/AMOUNT

4. Agriculture Information System2012

USDA-FAOOngoing300000 $

5. Global Earth Observation Systemof Systems/Asian Water Cycle Initiative Indus River Basin Research Activities Under the Framework of the GEOSS Asian Water Cycle Initiative

2014GEOSSAWCI Starting

National PROJECTS YEARS/FUNDING

STATUS/AMOUNT

1. Modeling the impact of climate change onwheat productivity in Punjab 2006-2009

HECCompleted

20000 $

2. Use of spectral reflectance to estimategrowth, biomass and yield of different wheatcultivars, under moisture stress conditions

2008-2011ALP

Completed37000 $

3. Optimization of Bt. Cotton production technology for different agro-ecological zones in the face of changing climate through simulation modeling. ALP

Ongoing60000 $

National PROJECTS YEARS/FUNDING

STATUS/AMOUNT

4. Assessing climate risk anddeveloping mitigation strategies forcotton productivity under changingclimate scenarios in Punjab

2013HEC

Ongoing38000 $

5. Assessing risk, reducingvulnerability and protracting riceproductivity under changing climate

2014HEC

Ongoing30000 $

Department of Agriculture (Ext &AR)

u Zonal Adaptive research Farms optimizing productiontechnologies under prevailing conditions.

u Village level farmer training programsu Production plans for each crop is available for selection of

crops under variable weathersu Plant clinics in each cropping zone giving warning and

solution for plant protection in the seasonu News letters for farmers also containing warning and

management practices to cope with the issue

u Training Manuals for all major crops also helping farmers tomanage crops under different environments

u Calling Help lines are available for farmers to get guidanceand solutions for their problems

u Advisory Services on the basis weather forecast for cropmanagement practices especially sowing, irrigation, sprayingpesticide and harvesting operations.

u Selection of crops according to the forecast of PMD especiallyin Kharif (Summer) season.

u Special crop practices under extreme events like drainage ofexcessive water from cotton/maize fields in rainy season.

u Application of irrigation at specific plant growth stages

Department of Agriculture Research

u Established climatic zone specific research institute and arid, rainfed and semiarid areas.

u Breeding against drought and Heatu Conservation agricultural research u Application of crop models for optimization of crop

production technologyu Application of crop models Crop monitoring and forecast u Introduction of new crops/alternate crops under changing

climate like quinoa, hybrid millets/sorghum for cereal purpose

Case Studies

AgMIP Methodologyu Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to generate

future weather data u Two crop models (DSSAT and APSIM) were used to simulate yield

and to assess climate change impactu Economic model (TOA-MD) was used to quantify the climate

vulnerabilities and adaptabilities

BaselineIEXA-GCM-CCSM4IIXA-GCM-GFDL-ESM2MIKXA-GCM-HadGEM2-ESIOXA-GCM-MIROC5IRXA-GCM-MPI-ESM-MR

DSSAT Model

Climate Models

Baseline IEXA IIXA IKXA IOXA IRXA

Yield

Kgha

-1

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Rice results of APSIM and DSSAT for 155 Farms Variation with 5-GCMs in Rice Region of Punjab-Pakistan, Mean yield reduction by DSSAT and APSIM was 15.2 and 17.2%.

29

Climate Change Impact on Rice

Wheat results of APSIM and DSSAT for 155 Farms Variation with 5-GCMs in Rice-wheat Region of Punjab-Pakistan, Mean yield reduction by DSSAT and APSIM was 14.1and 12%.

Climate Change Impact on Wheat

Adaptation Package

For TOA-MD

Sr. # Variable Direction of Change%age Change

Rice Wheat1 Nitrogen/hectare (Kg) Increase 15 252 Sowing Density (Plant/m2) Increase 15 303 Irrigation Decrease 15 254 Sowing Dates Decrease 5 Days 15 Days

For Crop Models

Sr. # Variable Direction of Change %age ChangeRice Wheat

1 Average House Hold Persons Increase 40 402 Non Agricultural Income Increase 40 403 Yield Increase 55 604 Price of Output Increase 65 705 Variable Production Cost Increase 55 50

Findings of AgMIP

• There would be an increase of 2.8°C in day and 2.2°C in night

temperature with 571 ppm CO2 in Punjab for mid-century (2040-

2069) (AgMIP, Pak. 2013)

• The per capita water availability is decreasing in Pakistan and we

will have to model it for secure future

• Mean yield reduction by DSSAT and APSIM was 15.2 and 17.2% for

rice and 14.1and 12% for wheat by DSSAT and APSIM respectively

Ø The results of analysis showed that for the rice wheat system after

adaptation, the number of adopters would be 84 and 88.38 percent

for DSSAT and APSIM, respectively

Ø Mean net returns per farm were Rs. 1541525 and Rs. 1771493 for

with-adaptation case for overall DSSAT and APSIM model

Ø Overall poverty rates of population were reducd 17.11 and 16.39

percent for APSIM and DSSAT, respectively

Ø Per capita income (Rs./person/annum) for adopters were Rs. 195481

and Rs. 224030 for DSSAT and APSIM respectively

Future Needs

u Better collaboration of PMD with Agriculture department

u Capacity building of stake holder for better understanding the forecasts.

u Contingency crop production plans with collaboration of PMD

drtasneem@uaf.edu.pk