when is the business aviation upturn coming and what … · when is the business aviation upturn...

ascendworldwide.com

AEROSPACEINFORMATION

REDEFINED

When is the business aviation upturn coming and what role does the Mediterranean market play?

Mediterranean Business Aviation13th September 2013

Daniel Hall

Ascend Advisory

Flightglobal Group

Flightglobal and Ascend

Flightglobal business lines

Flightglobal Ascend – Global Offices

Overview

Europe and the Mediterranean

– What part do they play?

The global picture - The not so

good news

Med or the ROW? Who to

watch out for

Reasons to be positive –

Ascend’s outlook for the

business jet sector?

674 19,380Total

In service / stored

1,2902008 – Peak year for deliveries

8,417delivered

since Y2003

Business Jet Aviation Today – Global Fleet and Delivery Data

2012 Delivery Total

808Average p/yr (to end-2012)

5312003 – Low point for deliveries

Business Jets Globally – A Long Term Growth Market

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Nu

mb

er

of

In-S

erv

ice

/ S

tore

d B

us

ine

ss

Je

ts

In-Service / Stored TotalSource: Ascend Online Fleets 2013 YTD end-Aug

Overview




good news


watch out for




European BizJet Fleet Inventory Growth…or not so

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

20

13

20

10

20

07

20

04

20

01

19

98

19

95

19

92

19

89

19

86

19

83

19

80

19

77

19

74

Europe In-Service & StoredSource: Ascend Online Fleets

Germany21%

UK19%

Austria13%France

9%

Switzerland9%

Portugal8%

Italy6%

Spain6%

Turkey5%

Russia4%

Top 10 Countries Operate 75% of the 2,792 European BizJet Fleet

Source: Ascend Online Fleets

0 10 20 30 40

Germany

UK

Austria

Swiss

Turkey

Malta

France

Russia

Denmark

Finland

Others

Operator Location of New Deliveries since Jan 2012


Mediterranean Countries used in Ascend’s Analysis

1

3

3

4

4

4

4

8

10

12

19

21

27

29

30

33

53

114

121

134

189

Palestine

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Syria

Croatia

Monaco

Montenegro

Tunisia

Algeria

Cyprus

Libya

Lebanon

Slovenia

Morocco

Egypt

Greece

Israel

Malta

Turkey

Spain

Italy

France

ROW96%Med'

Countries4%

80% in a corporate role; 10% with Government / Heads of State, 10% Other

Mediterranean Fleet Growth – 823 bizjets in-service / stored today

Cyprus, 2 Morocco, 1

France, 8

Greece, 3

Monaco, 1

Italy, 5

Lebanon, 1

Malta, 10

Slovenia, 1

Spain, 2

Turkey, 11

Israel, 1


New deliveries since Jan 2012

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

France - only Italy - only Egypt, Malta, Morocco, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey Med


Citation II and Mustang have an 8% share of the total Mediterranean fleet

Largest Operators and Most Dominant Types

Citation Mustang ,

38Citation II ,

31

Citation XLS , 21

Falcon 50 , 21

Challenger 604, 20

Citation Sovereign

, 19

Falcon 2000 , 19

Falcon 7X , 19

Challenger 605, 18

Gulfstream G550 , 18

Top 10 Types by Fleet Size


22

19 19

1716

14

12 12 12 12

0

5

10

15

20

25

Top 10 Operators by Fleet Size


Today’s fleet of 53 includes 9 bizliners and 20 Large / ULR aircraft

Since conference one year ago, fleet has doubled

How about Malta?

Business Jet Fleet has witnessed rapid growth since 2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Established global fleet led by 112 x BBJ1 and 68 x ACJ319 aircraft

Embraer’s Lineage joined from 2007 – today numbers 19

Business Liner (‘Bizliner’) Jets

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Y1998 Y1999 Y2000 Y2001 Y2002 Y2003 Y2004 Y2005 Y2006 Y2007 Y2008 Y2009 Y2010 Y2011 Y2012 Y2013

Business Liner Historical Fleet Trends (since Y1998)

Boeing BBJ3

Airbus ACJ320

Embraer Lineage

Airbus ACJ318

Boeing BBJ2

Airbus ACJ319

Boeing BBJ1


Business Liner (‘Bizliner’) Jets

Africa3%

Asia-Pacific

20%

Europe26%

LATAM / Caribbean

8% Middle East25%

North America

15%

Unknown area3%


Air Taxi / Charter

33%

Airline6%

Bank, SPC / Lessor

1%

Fractional Operator

2%

Military / Gov't Operator

16%OEM2%

Private / Gov't / Corporate

40%


Overview




good news


watch out for




Global New Deliveries – Not such a smooth history

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Nu

mb

er

of

Ne

w B

us

ine

ss

Je

t D

eli

ve

rie

s

New DeliveriesSource: Ascend Online Fleets

2013 YTD end-Aug

Challenger 300 remains the leader (just like in 2012) at 31 new deliveries

G550 (29), Global 6000 (24), Falcon 7X (23) and G650 (22) follow to signify

dominance of top-end types

New Business Jet Deliveries –Stable, but no recovery – yet

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

Business Jet New Deliveries

North America EuropeLatin America and Caribbean Asia-PacAfrica Middle EastUnknown area Ascend 2013 Remaining Delivery Forecast


When looking at value of deliveries, large / heavy

segments become a ~50% share

Delivery trend shows move to larger sizes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003 2008 2012

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

De

live

rie

s

Delivery Year

Bizliner

Heavy

Medium

Light-Medium

Light

Entry Level

VLJ


H1 sales total of 1,550 versus 1,724 in H1 2012. High % (79) in North America versus an average of 72% over past six years

Second-hand Market Sales Transactions –Improvement, but not a great 2013 so far

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

Business Jet Used Sales Transactions

North America Europe

Latin America and Caribbean Asia-Pac

Africa Middle East

Unknown areaSource: Ascend Online Fleets

The Downturn was Severe for all Segments

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

Q1'07 Q3'07 Q1'08 Q3'08 Q1'09 Q3'09 Q1'10 Q3'10 Q1'11 Q3'11 Q1'12 Q3'12 Q1'13 Q3'13

Ma

rke

t V

alu

e R

ela

tive

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e t

o Q

1 2

00

7

MARKET VALUE TRENDS — ALL SEGMENTS, RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TO Q1 2007

VLJ, ENTRY, LIGHT LIGHT MID MED SUPER MID

LARGE HEAVY LARGE ULR BIZLINERSource: Ascend Online Values (V1)

Medium / Super Mid-Size Sector: Competition has shaped value trends

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Q1'07 Q3'07 Q1'08 Q3'08 Q1'09 Q3'09 Q1'10 Q3'10 Q1'11 Q3'11 Q1'12 Q3'12 Q1'13 Q3'13Ma

rke

t V

alu

e R

ela

tive

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e t

o Q

1 2

00

7

MARKET VALUE TRENDS — MEDIUM / SUPER MID-SIZE SECTOR. RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TO Q1 2007

2007 Citation X 2005 Falcon 2000 2007 Falcon 2000EX EASy

2007 IAI G200 2007 Challenger 300 2002 Challenger 604

2001 Falcon 900C 2002 Falcon 900EX 2007 Falcon 900EX EASySource: Ascend Online Values (V1)

Light / Mid-Size Sector: Split identified in recent years

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13

Ma

rke

t V

alu

e R

ela

tive

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e t

o Q

1 2

01

2

MARKET VALUE TRENDS — LIGHT / MID-SIZE SECTOR. RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TO Q1 2012

2001 Citation Excel 2006 Citation XLS 2008 Citation XLS+ 2007 Citation Sovereign

2002 Hawker 800XP 2002 Learjet 45 2006 Learjet 45XR 2003 Learjet 60

2008 Learjet 60XR 2008 Hawker 900XP 2008 Hawker 850XP 2000 IAI Astra SPX

2009 Gulfstream G150 Source: Ascend Online Values (V1)

Overview




good news


watch out for




Business Jet Geographical Distribution

The US is still the largest market - by some distance…

North America64%

Europe15%

LATAM & Carib12%

Asia Pacific5%

Middle East2%

Africa2%

Unknown0%

US share alone is 61%

Emerging markets are driving fleet growth

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Brazil

Mexico

Canada

China

United Kingdom

Venezuela

Austria

Hong Kong

Germany

India

Argentina

784

757

512

210

404

207

266

107

431

160

155

Absolute Fleet Growth 2007 - 2013

Op

era

tor

Co

un

try

Source: Ascend Online Fleets Top 10 omitting Number 1: USA. Growth of 1,227 a/c from 10,609 to 11,836

Fleet Size Today

Overview




good news


watch out for




NetJets - just over 200 on order incl 75 x CL350s & 42 x P300s

Over 100 with VistaJet – 28 x Global 6000s and 50 x Global 5000s

Reasons to be positive (particularly for Bombardier):

Large firm order backlogs from NetJets and VistaJet

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

NetJets VistaJet Source: Ascend Online Fleets

New models seek to stimulate demand

2013

• Learjet 70,75, Falcon 2000S & LXS

• Citation M2, Sovereign

2014

• Legacy 500, Eclipse 550

• Challenger 350, Lear 85

• HondaJet

2015

• Citation Latitude• Cirrus SF50, Legacy 450

2016• Global 7000 / 8000

2017/18

• Citation Longitude• BBJ-Max, Pilatus PC24

Forecast shift to the right – recovery not on as early as expected

Light segments forecast to take longer to recover

Steady Growth in Annual Deliveries Forecast

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Fo

rec

as

t N

ew

Bu

sin

es

s J

et

De

live

rie

s

Very Light Jet Entry Level Light Light/Medium Medium Heavy BizlinerSource: Ascend Online Fleets

Ascend and Business Aviation

Data & Information

Market Intelligence

Valuations / Appraisals • Market Value• Base Value• Future Values• Maintenance and Spec, and Utilisation Adjusted• Market Commentaries• Portfolio Service

Full Helicopter Coverage

Business Turboprop Coverage

Business Jet Delivery Forecast

Management Consultancy Team with wide-ranging experience in biz-av projects

Sector Expertise –US – EU – Asia – China – Middle East

Supporting key market participants –OEMs, financiers, lessors, investors, operators

The information contained in our databases and used in this presentation has been assembled from many sources, and whilst the utmost

care has been taken to ensure accuracy, the information is supplied on the understanding that no legal liability whatsoever shall attach to

Ascend, its subsidiaries, their officers, or employees in respect of any error or omission that may have occurred.

when is the business aviation upturn coming and what … · when is the business aviation upturn...

Documents