web user experience in 2020
TRANSCRIPT
Web User Experience in 2020
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Drew Gorton
My Perspectives:
● Developer● CEO● Product Owner● Agency & Community Outreach
@dgorton
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3 Minute Version
The world is getting more web-ish
The web is getting less web-ish
There’s a LOT of change coming
Open Source won this last time
Opportunity Abounds
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What we’re covering
Forces changing our medium
● Hardware● Open Web● SAAS● Search / Social
Awareness, Possible Outcomes
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What we’re NOT covering
UI Design Techniques
UX process
UX techniques
Content strategy
...
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For Each Force
What’s Happening
Analogy / Example
Prediction
How to Prepare
Fooling around with alternating current (AC) is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.
— Thomas Edison, 1889
Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years.
— Alex Lewyt, 1955
There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.
— Ken Olson, CEO DEC, 1977
I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.
— Robert Metcalfe, Founder 3Com, 1995
There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.
— Steve Ballmer, CEO Microsoft, 2007
Something really dumb.
— Drew Gorton, 2016
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On Analogies
Analogies, it is true, decide nothing, but they can make one feel more at home.
— Sigmund Freud
Hardware in 2020
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Hardware Slows
Moore’s Law is Broken
● Physics● Good Enough
https://flic.kr/p/jrrmeP
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1930’s: DC-3
1940’s: Stratocruiser
1950’s: 707
1960’s: Moon!
—via Maciej Cegłowski
Analogy: Airplanes
Maciej Cegłowski, Webstock 2014, idlewords.com
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● Ubiquity > Speed● Efficiency● Specialized chips for specialized problems● Specialized devices● Internet of Things accelerates
Prediction: Hardware
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● World gets more web-ish● We know this world● Our web-ish kungfu is strong● Optimism!
What to do: Hardware
Interfaces in 2020
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● Audible● Overlay (Glass / VR)● APIs● Screens● ...
Interfaces Multiply
Dries Buytaert, 2016 DrupalCon NOLA Driesnote
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● “View Mobile Site”● m.example.com● “Optimized Experience”● #FAIL
Analogy: Mobile Sites
American Airlines ~2014 via wtfmobileweb.com
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● Headless Drupal● Integrations and APIs● Get your content elsewhere● Talk to other systems● Started? Double down! ● Not yet? Get moving!
What to do: Interfaces
Open Web in 2020
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Too big to lose:
● Google● Apple● Facebook● Amazon● ...
Open Web Wins
Dries Buytaert, 2016 SXSW
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● 1998: Browser Wars● Netscape vs IE● IE pulls ahead● Netscape jumps on
board
Analogy: Web Standards Project
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● Don’t sweat proprietary formats (AMP, FIA...)
● Help build an Open Web movement
● Support it as it emerges
What to do: Open Web
https://www.etsy.com/market/keep_portland_weird
Big Data in 2020
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Edward Snowden
2013: US Government Leak
Big Data
Everyone has the right to the protection of personal data.General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) - EU
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2013: Edward Snowden: US Gov’t
????: Amazon
…
Step Forth!
31www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/worlds-biggest-data-breaches-hacks
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● Support data privacy standards● Educate yourself on Security● Protect Personally Identifiable Information (PII)
What to do: Big Data
Software in 2020
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Software Grows
● SAAS Grows
● Services Commoditized
● Search and Social are Regulated
https://flic.kr/p/jrrmeP
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Search Example
https://www.google.com/webhp?#q=thai%20curry%20house
vs
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● Commoditizable clients, content? Get out or go deep!● Restaurant ‘deep’ example:
○ Forecast demand○ Order supplies○ Mobile ordering○ …
● Specialize. Find a vertical. Understand it deeply.
What to do: SAAS
Web Design in 2020
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● Widgetization● Micro Formats● Web Components
Web Design
https://www.google.com/design/spec/material-design/introduction.html
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ClassicalRomanesqueGothicRenaissanceBaroqueNeoclassical...
Analogy: Architecture
https://medium.com/@sall/the-future-of-web-design-is-hidden-in-the-history-of-architecture-1cc93ea854d0#.mb1aw3uyh
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● User Experience belongs to the future user● This too shall pass
Web Design: What to do
Role of Open Source
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We Know How To Do This
Deeply Understand the Interconnected World Model
Make Ideas Better
Assemble Around Causes (Data, Standards, …)
Push Technology Forward
In Conclusion
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In Conclusion
The world is getting more web-ish
The web is getting less web-ish
There’s a LOT of change coming
Open Source won this last time
Opportunity Abounds
Rate this Session and Get the Slides
https://events.drupal.org/neworleans2016/sessions/web-ux-2020