vulnerability and adaptation assessments hands-on training workshop, paraguay, august 14-18 2006...
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Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On
Training Workshop,Paraguay, August 14-18 2006
Impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessment for coastal zones
Outline
1. Drivers & impacts on coastal areas
2. Adaptation options
3. V&A tools & data sources
4. Integrating mechanisms
5. Conclusions
Drivers & impacts on coastal areas
Climate Change and Coastal Resources
Coastal resources will be affected by a number of consequences of climate change, including:
Higher sea levels Higher sea temperatures Changes in precipitation patterns and coastal runoff Changed oceanic conditions Changes in storm tracks, frequencies, and intensities
The Main Biophysical Effects of Relative Sea Level Rise
Table 5.2. The main biophysical effects of relative sea level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).
Biogeophysical effect
Other relevant factors
Climate Nonclimate
Inundation, flood and storm damage
Surge Wave and storm climate, morphological changes, sediment supply
Sediment supply, flood management, morphological changes, land claim
Backwater effect (river)
Runoff Catchment management and land use
Wetland loss (and change) CO2 fertilization
Sediment supply
Sediment supply, migration space, direct destruction
Erosion Sediment supply, wave and storm climate Sediment supply
Saltwater intrusion
Surface waters Runoff Catchment management and land use
Groundwater Rainfall Land use, aquifer use
Rising water tables/impeded drainage Rainfall Land use, aquifer use
Some Climate Change Factors
Sea water temperature (of surface waters)
Increase Increased coral bleaching; migration of coastal species toward higher latitudes; decreased incidence of sea ice at higher latitudes
Precipitation intensity/run-off
Intensified hydrological cycle, with wide regional variations
Changed fluvial sediment supply; changed flood risk in coastal lowlands; but also consider catchment management
Wave climate Poorly known, but significant temporal and spatial variability expected
Changed patterns of erosion and accretion; changed storm impacts
Storm track, frequency, and intensity
Poorly known, but significant temporal and spatial variability expected
Changed occurrence of storm flooding and storm damage
Table 5.1. Some climate change and related factors relevant to coasts and their biogeophysical effects (taken from Nicholls, 2002)
Climate factor Direction of change Biogeophysical effects
Atmospheric CO2 Increase Increased productivity in coastal ecosystems; decreased CaCO3 saturation impacts on coral reefs
Current Global Predictions of Sea Level Rise
IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) range for global-mean rise in sea level is between 9 cm and 88 cm by 2100
Change outside this range is possible, especially if Antarctica becomes a significant source
There is a “commitment to sea level rise” even if atmospheric GHG concentrations are stabilized
Global-Mean Sea Level Rise 1990 to 2100 (SRES scenarios)
Houghton et al., 2001
Processes Controlling Sea-LevelChange
Relative sea-level changes
Land Subsidence Mexico City
Source: http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/earthgwlandsubside.html
Subsidence in Mexico City and the Chalco Plain
Source: Adapted from Ortega et al., 1993
Factors in Local Predictions
Relative sea level rise: global and regional components plus land movement Land uplift can counter any global sea level rise Land subsidence can exacerbate any global sea
level rise Other dynamic oceanic and climatic effects cause
regional differences (oceanic circulation, wind and pressure, and ocean-water density differences add additional component)
Sea Level Rise at New York City1850 to 2100
IPCC TAR range due to SRES emission scenarios
McCarthy et al., 2001
Other Climate Change(Hurricane Katrina)
Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/aug/hazards.html
Gulfport, Mississippi, July 05
Grand Casino, Gulfport 21 Sept 2005
Caman, Peru, and Tsunami Vulnerability
http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html
Atolls, Belize
Source: http://home.swbell.net/skyisles/islands.html
Coral Impacts
“Recent global increases in reef ecosystem degradation and mortality are exceeding the adaptive capacity of coral reef organisms and communities. The severity of this crisis will only intensify with future changes in the global climate.
While the net effects of climate change on coral reefs will be negative, coral reef organisms and communities are not necessarily doomed to total extinction.
Multiple environmental management strategies, from local to global, will be necessary to ensure the long-term sustainability of the world’s coral reef ecosystems.”
Buddemeier et al, 2004
Population and Population Density vs.
Distance and Elevationin 1990
Istanbul
LagosLima
Buenos Aires Rio de JaneiroMadras
KarachiJakarta
Calcutta
MumbaiBangkok
ManilaShanghai
Osaka
Tokyo
Seoul
Tianjin
Dhaka
New York
Los Angeles
Coastal Megacities (>8 million people)Forecast for 2010
Rio de Janeiro's waterfront, 1919
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rio_de_Janeiro%27s_waterfront%2C_1919.jpg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rio_de_Janeiro-Ipanema_Beach.jpg
Havana, Cuba
http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html
Controls on Coastal Position
littoral sedimentsupply (±ve)
sea-levelchange
antecedentphysiography
boundary conditions (external)
lower shorefacebackbarrier
uppershoreface
bypassingcr
oss-
shel
f
transportinlet
resuspension & inlet bypassing
fluvial-delta inlet bypassing
coastal tract
B
DC
A
inner-shelf sand
mid-shelf mud
marine sand wedge
lagoon basin mud
Rio de la Plata
http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html
SeaWiFS: sediment
plumes off the coast of Chile
http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html
Beach Erosion, Barbados
Before Storm After Storm
Source: http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm
Biogeophysical Effects of Sea Level Rise
Displacement of coastal lowlands and wetlands
Increased coastal erosion Increased flooding (frequency and depth) Salinization of surface and groundwaters Plus others
Ecosystem Loss
Inundation and displacement of wetlands e.g., mangroves, saltmarsh, intertidal areas
Areas provide Flood protection Nursery areas for fisheries Important for nature conservation
Loss of valuable resources, tourism
KEY: mangroves, o saltmarsh, x coral reefs
Coastal Ecosystems at Risk
Reefs and Mangroves, Latin America and Caribbean
http://www.unep-wcmc.org/marine/data/coral_mangrove/marine_maps_main.html
United Nations Environment Programme Interactive Mapping Tool
Source: http://bure.unep-wcmc.org/imaps/marine/mangroves/viewer.htm
Mangroves as indicators of coastal change, Brazil
(a) no hard defenses (b) hard defenses
Sea Level Rise
Coastal Squeeze (of coastal wetlands)
Socioeconomic Impacts
Loss of property and land Increased flood risk/loss of life Damage to coastal protection works and other
infrastructure Loss of renewable and subsistence resources Loss of tourism, recreation, and coastal habitats Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through
decline in soil and water quality
Adaptation Options
Responding to Coastal Change(including sea level rise)
Retreat
Accommodation
Protect Soft Hard
Adaptation Methods
Retreat Managed retreat Relocation from high risk zones
Accommodation Public awareness Natural disaster management planning
Adaptation Methods (continued)
Protect Hard options
Revetments, breakwaters, groins Floodgates, tidal barriers
Soft options Beach/wetland nourishment Dune restoration
Beach Nourishment, Nevis
Eroded Beach Re-nourished Beach
Source: http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm
Example Approach to Adaptation Measures
Climate change predictions Rise in sea level Increase in number and intensity of tropical
weather systems Increase in severity of storm surges Changes in rainfall
Example Approach to Adaptation Measures (continued)
Coastal impacts Damage to property/infrastructure Damage/loss of coastal/marine ecosystems Destruction of hotels and tourism facilities Increased risk of disease Damage/loss of fisheries infrastructure General loss of biodiversity Submergence/inundation of coastal areas
Example Approach to Adaptation Measures (continued)
Adaptation (retreat, protect, accommodate) Improved physical planning and development
control Strengthening/implementation of EIA
regulations Formulation of Coastal Zone Management
Plan Monitoring of coastal habitats, including
beaches Formulation of national climate change policy Public awareness and education
Shoreline Management and AdaptationProactive Adaptation
Coastal Adaptation (IPCC)
UK Shoreline Management (Defra)
Increasing robustness
Protect Hold the line
Increasing flexibility
Accommodate Advance the line
Enhancing adaptability
Reversing maladaptive trendsImproving awareness and preparedness
Retreat Managed realignment
No active interventionFlood plain mapping and flood warnings)
V&A Tools & Data Sources
Coastal Vulnerability Assessment
Principles Older tools Top down Bottom up
Methods to Assess Impacts of Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise & climate change scenarios Screening assessment Erosion Flooding Top-down Bottom up
Screening Assessment
Rapid assessment to highlight possible impacts of a sea level rise scenario and identify information/data gaps
Qualitative or semiquantitative Steps
Collation of existing coastal data Assessment of the possible impacts of a high sea
level rise scenario Implications of future development Possible responses to the problems caused by
sea level rise
Step 1: Collation of Existing Data
Topographic surveys Aerial/remote sensing images – topography/
land cover Coastal geomorphology classification Evidence of subsidence Long-term relative sea level rise Magnitude and damage caused by flooding Coastal erosion Population density Activities located on the coast (cities, ports,
resort areas and tourist beaches, industrial and agricultural areas)
Step 2: Assessment of Possible Impacts of High Scenario Sea Level Rise
Four impacts are considered Increased storm flooding
Beach/bluff erosion
Wetland and mangrove inundation and loss
Salt water intrusion
Step 3: Implications of Future Developments
New and existing river dams and impacts on downstream deltas
New coastal settlements Expansion of coastal tourism Possibility of transmigration
Step 4: Responses to the Sea Level Rise Impacts
Planned retreat (i.e., setback of defenses) Accommodate (i.e., raise buildings above
flood levels) Protect (i.e., hard and soft defenses,
seawalls, beach nourishment)
Screening Assessment Matrix Biophysical vs. Socioeconomic Impacts
Biophysical Impact of Sea Level Rise
Socioeconomic impacts
Tourism Human Settlements
Agriculture Water Supply
Fisheries Financial Services
Human Health
Others?
Inundation
Erosion
Flooding
Salinization
Others?
Beach Erosion, Anguilla
Pre Hurricane Post Hurricane
Source: http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm
Bruun “Rule”
Limitations of the Bruun “Rule”
Only describes one of the processes affecting sandy beaches
Indirect effect of mean sea level rise Estuaries and inlets maintain equilibrium Act as major sinks Sand eroded from adjacent coast Increased erosion rates
Response time – best applied over long timescales
Flooding
Increase in flood levels due to rise in sea level
Increase in flood risk Increase in populations in coastal floodplain Adaptation
Increase in flood protection Management and planning in floodplain
Coastal Flood Plain
0
20
40
60
Peo
ple
Flo
ode
d (M
illio
ns/y
r)
No Sea-Level Rise
Unmitigated Emissions
Kyoto Protocol
20% Emissions Reduction
30% Emissions Reduction
Global Impacts of Coastal Flooding in 2050 – Effects of Mitigation
People flooded (Millions/yr)
The Thames Barrier
Flood Methodology
Relative Sea-LevelRise Scenarios
Raised Flood Levels
Global Sea-levelRise Scenarios
Size of Flood Hazard Zones
People in theHazard Zone
Subsidence
Storm SurgeFlood Curves
Coastal Topography
PopulationDensity
Protection Status(1in 10, 1 in100, etc.)
Average AnnualPeople Flooded,
People to Respond
(“EXPOSURE”)
(“RISK”)
Relative Sea-LevelRise Scenarios
Raised Flood Levels
Global Sea-levelRise Scenarios
Size of Flood Hazard Zones
People in theHazard Zone
Subsidence
Storm SurgeFlood Curves
Coastal Topography
PopulationDensity
Protection Status(1in 10, 1 in100, etc.)
Average AnnualPeople Flooded,
People to Respond
(“EXPOSURE”)
(“RISK”)
Models
Top Down DIVA: Dynamic and Interaction Vulnerability Assessment from
DINAS-Coast Project Older Models
COSMO RamCo Common Methodology
Integrated Models RegIS2 : Development of a metamodel tool for regional
integrated climate change management Bottom-up approaches
Present day loss rate
High Climate Change
Low ClimateChange
Saltmarsh Losses to 2050
Bottom Up Models
Detailed local assessments UK erosion assessment Australian approaches Relative assessment approach ‘Pacific
Methodology’
Approach Selection
‘Relative’ vs ‘absolute assessments’ Pragmatic approach and selection Example selection criteria:
Type of coast Management issues Time/budget Access to expertise & data Integration into adaptation
UK Planning Assessment
Ongoing investigation and formulation of policy Requires information on
Role of major processes in sediment budget Including human influences Other climate change impacts
Example of assessment from the UK Combined flood hazard and erosion assessment
ErosionOften Exported Alongshore
Goals for Planning Assessment
For future climate and protection scenarios, explore interactions between cliff management and flood risk within sediment sub-cell (in Northeast Norfolk)
In particular, quantify Cliff retreat and associated impacts Longshore sediment supply/beach size Flood risk Integrated flood and erosion assessment
Climate Change,Sea-Level Rise
Scenarios
RegionalWave/Surge
Models
Protection,Socio-economic
Scenarios
SCAPERegional
Morphological Model
SCAPE GISData Storage
FloodRisk Analysis
(LISTFLOOD-FP)
Cliff ErosionAnalysis
Scenarios
IntegratedCell-scale
Assessment
Analysis OverallAssessment
Climate Change,Sea-Level Rise
Scenarios
RegionalWave/Surge
Models
Protection,Socio-economic
Scenarios
SCAPERegional
Morphological Model
SCAPE GISData Storage
FloodRisk Analysis
(LISTFLOOD-FP)
Cliff ErosionAnalysis
Scenarios
IntegratedCell-scale
Assessment
Analysis OverallAssessment
Method for Planning Assessment
Nearshore sandbank
Offshore sandbank
Bathymetry and Wave Modelling
-150 -100 -50 00
5
10
15
20
25
30
355 year stages
Recession distance
Dis
tanc
e al
ong
base
line,
km
H
B
M
T
O
C
S
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.50
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Average over 50 years
Recession rate (m/A)
H
B
M
T
O
C
S Sheringham
Cromer
OverstrandTrimmingham
Mundesley
Bacton
Happisburgh
Future PolicyMaintain Defenses, 6 mm/yr Sea Level Rise
Erosion Visualization Protection Abandoned (10 year time steps)
10 100
R=S(L/(B+h))=(S)1/tanØ
accretion erosion
A
B
C
D
E
Kay et al, 2005. Graphics by Colin Woodroffe.
Australian Coastal Vulnerability Approaches
Probabilistic Beach Erosion
Cowell et al (in press)
Engineers Australia Matrix
EstuaryBeach
K1 K3 K4
S1
S2
S3
S7
S9
S10
S11
K1 K3 K4
S1
S2
S4
S8
K1 K2 K3 K4 K5 K6
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
S7
S9
S10
S11
S12
S13
National assessment
Higher sea level
Coral bleaching
Local assessment
Engineers Australia (2004) in Kay et al, 2005. Graphics by Colin Woodroffe.
Engineers Australia Approach
Relative Assessment
From Kay & Hay, 1993
Group Consultation Processes
Expert consensus building Stakeholder engagement processes Can be as structured or unstructured as
required
Climate Change Adaptation Through Integrated Risk Reduction
http://www.waikato.ac.nz/igci/ccairr/ccairr.htm
Barriers to Conducting Vulnerability Assessments
Incomplete knowledge of the relevant processes affected by sea level rise and their interactions
Insufficient data on existing physical conditions
Difficulty in developing the local and regional scenarios of future changes
Lack of appropriate analytical methodologies Variety of questions raised by different socio-
political conditions
Data Sources
IPCC Data Distribution Centre Sea level data
Permanent service for mean sea level GLOSS – Global Sea-Level Observing System
Remotely sensed data Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Centre
(NASA) Shuttle radar topography mission
Coastal data Global mapping e.g. http://www.unep-wcmc.org Coastal specialists in your region e.g. Un
GLOSS Tide Gauges
http://ioc3.unesco.org/gloss-south-america/
GTOPO30Global Digital
Elevation Model
Data Sources
Local observational data Sea level measurements Elevation/topography Wave recording Aerial photography Habitat mapping
Integrating Mechanisms
Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)
Basic Features of ICZM
Establishes institutions designed to overcome sectoral fragmentation
Promotes harmonization & consistency of decisions, but does not supplant sectoral management
Recognizes the distinctive, interrelated nature of watersheds, the coast, and ocean
Source: Jim Good
Global ICZM Activity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1993 2000 2002
Glo
bal ICZM
Activity
-National and subnational
International
From Sorensen 1993, 1997, 2000, 2002
Wide range of literature
BooksPapersWebsites
Planning Frameworks
Scales of Coastal Management Plans
Level of Plan (scale)
Key Role
International Transboundary issues Creating a common purpose
Whole-of-jurisdiction1
Administrative arrangements Setting national objectives and principles Focus on priorities
Regional Translating international and national goals and objectives to local outcomes.
Aggregate local needs and issues to formulate national and international priorities and programs
Local Community involvement in setting management
options
Site Managing well defined problems Tangible results of all planning levels can be seen
Example mitigation policy - Western Australia (2003)
“These setback guidelines provide direction for the siting of development, including subdivision and strata subdivision, on the Western Australian coast as defined in this Policy.
The specific objectives of these guidelines are to provide a setback that protects development from coastal processes by:
absorbing the impact of a severe storm sequence; allowing for shoreline movement; allowing for global sea level rise; and allowing for the fluctuation of natural coastal processes. “
Western Australian Coastal Policy - Bruun Rule Component
“The setback to allow for sea level rise is based on the mean of the median model of the latest Assessment Report of the IPCC Working Group (currently, the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC Working Group, January 2001). The vertical change predicted by the current model between the years of 2000 and 2100 is 0.38 m. A multiplier of 100, based on the Bruun Rule shall be used and gives a value for 38 m for sandy shores. For other shore types, this factor shall be assessed in regard to local geography.”
Recap
1. Drivers & impacts on coastal areas
2. Adaptation options
3. V&A tools & data sources
4. Integrating mechanisms
5. Conclusions
Concluding Remarks
Sea level rise could be a serious problem, but the uncertainties are large
Impacts are strongly influenced by human choice
Reducing GHG emissions reduces but does not avoid sea level rise impacts
Preparing to adapt would seem prudent, in the context of multiple stresses and managing existing problems