CGE TRAINING MATERIALS-

VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION

(V&A) ASSESSMENT

Chapter 2

Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks

PART 1:

Introduction, Planning and Adaptation Frameworks

Objectives and Expectations

• Having read this presentation in conjunction with the related handbook, the reader should:

a) Recognize the rationale for the need for vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments

b) Be familiar with key terms, concepts and purposes of V&A assessments

c) Identify the various options that can be taken into consideration when undertaking a V&A assessment

d) Be able to use Planning and Adaptation Frameworks suited to respective national circumstances.

3

Some Introductory Remarks

Update of the Training Materials

• The previous version (2005) is outdated and the updated version reflects the following:

a) Important findings from IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (2007)

b) Significant update of methods, tools and data requirements for V&A assessment

c) Experience from Parties in undertaking national communications

• The existing structure of the previous training material was maintained, to ensure continuity and consistency.

Update of the Training Materials: A Template Approach

Handbook Structure

Chapter 1 Introduction

Chapter 2 Planning, Including Selecting Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks

Chapter 3 Baseline Socio-economic Scenarios

Chapter 4 Climate Change Scenarios

Chapter 5 Coastal Resources

Chapter 6 Water Resources

Chapter 7 Agriculture

Chapter 8 Human Health

Chapter 9 Integration, Mainstreaming, Monitoring and Evaluation

Chapter 10 Communication of V&A Analysis in National Communications

Chapter 11 Bibliography

Important Sources of Related Information

• UNFCCC (2008) Resource guide for preparing the national communications of

non-Annex I Parties (Modules 1-4) <

http://unfccc.int/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/items

/2625.php

>

• UNFCCC (2008) Compendium of methods and tools to evaluation impacts of,

and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change”: <

http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/methodologies_for/vulnerability_and_adaptatio

n/application/pdf/consolidated_version_updated_021204.pdf

>

• UNDP-NCSP(2006) National Communications Support Programme Resource

Kit.

http://ncsp.undp.org/sites/default/files/NatCom%20Process.pdf

• PROVIA Guidance on Assessing Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation to

Climate Change, 2012 draft, http://bit.ly/provia_act4

“To a Hammer, Everything Looks Like a Nail”

• Methods or models do not provide answers, but can help us gain insights

• The first step is to consider the question(s) being asked.

Some Questions to Begin a V&A Assessment

• What is of concern?

a) Food production, water supply, health?

b) Concerns may not be expressed in climate terms, e.g. extreme temperatures, but in terms of consequences of climate change for people.

• Who may be affected?

• How far into the future is of concern?

Note: concerns may focus on current risks (which could be made worse by climate change).

• For what purpose is the assessment to be used?

a) Raising awareness (education)?

b) Policy making (e.g. to inform a particular decision).

• What kind of output is needed?

Some Questions to Begin a V&A Assessment

• What resources are available to conduct the study?

a) Money

b) Staff

c) Expertise

d) Data

e) Regional linkages

f) Relationships with donors and development partners.

• How much time is available?

Additional Questions Before Starting the V&A Assessment

Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study

• You should not begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with “the previous questions.

• Select methods and models that best help you answer the questions.

Different Questions May Lead to Different Approaches

• Questions about how climate change may affect resources may lead to analysis of long-term impacts (e.g. out to 2100).

• Questions about adaptation may lead to analysis of vulnerability within a planning horizon (e.g. 5 to 50 years)

Who is Asking the Question(s) May Determine How the Work is Done

• Some may be content with research that is conducted

by the researchers

• Others may wish for a hands-on approach:

e.g. Involve stakeholders in conducting the analysis and

also shaping outputs by helping with sectoral and

geographic prioritization.

1. What information is needed?

2. When is the information needed?

3. Who needs the information?

Bottom Line:

Impacts of Climate Change

• Impact is typically the effect of climate change:

a) For biological systems, it can be change in productivity, quality, population, or range

b) For societal systems, it can be a change in income, morbidity, mortality, or other measure of well-being.

Adaptation

• Adaptation refers to initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems, against actual or expected climate change effects.

• Various types of adaptation exist, e.g. anticipatory and reactive, and autonomous and planned.

• Examples include: raising river or coastal dikes, the substitution of more temperature-shock resistant plants for sensitive ones, etc. (IPCC, 2007)

• This may not include “actual” (realized) or “expected” (future) changes in climate .

Adaptation (continued)

• Two types of adaptation:

a) Autonomous adaptation ( or reactive adaptation) tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent

b) Anticipatory (or proactive or planned) adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change.

Adaptation Learning Cycle

Four broad iterative tasks of an adaptation learning cycle:

Decision Trees: support the identification of critical tasks and methods

PROVIA (2012)

Empirically Based Methods

Empirically based methods refer to the gathering of

observable data to formulate and test a hypothesis and

come to a conclusion. These methods often require the

commitment of substantial resources.

Theory-driven Approach

• A theory-driven approach, makes use of existing

theoretical insights into the nature and causes of

vulnerability to select variables for inclusion, although

in practice this necessarily occurs within the limits

placed by data availability.

• This inevitably leads to subjectivity in the choice of

indicators, but that can be addressed by ensuring all

decisions are grounded in the existing literature and

made fully transparent.

Characteristics of the Climate Hazards

Characteristic Description Value Indication on critical tasks and appropriate methods

Type Are risks due to current climate vulnerability?

Yes/no(i.e. extreme event, slow-onset)

If extreme events are considered, decisions may take into account current climate

Observed trend Has a past trend been observed?

Unknown, not knowable, clear direction, no direction

If a past trend has been observed, then it is easier to motivate the affected actors to adapt.If the trend is unknown, collecting data is indicated

Future impacts Given a scenario, can I compute impacts (or outcomes)

Yes/no If future impacts (or outcomes) can be computed, decision-making methods on future outcomes are appropriate.

Climate change is the dominant risk factor

Climate change is considered to be a major driver only if it is important relative to the other drivers involved

Yes/no If climate change is not the major driver, analysing climate change impacts is not a priority, focus on the other drivers or on factors that are internal to the AS.

Characteristics of the Affected Actors

Characteristic Description Value Indication on critical tasks and appropriate methods

Heterogeneity Degree difference in socio-economic characteristics between relevant actors

High/low If degree of difference is high, options which require collective action may be difficult

Group size Size of group affected by impacts and taking adaptive action

Small/large If group size is small, collective action options may be more easily taken

Damaged experienced

Have actors suffered damage due to extreme weather events

Yes/no If yes, it is necessary to focus on current risks

Awareness of current risks

Actors perception of risks from current vulnerability and extremes

High/low If low, risk communication and awareness raising are indicated

Potential capacity

Actors ability to take adaptation action, includes financial, human, and social capital

High/low If low, incentives may be considered to influence adaptation

Actual capacity

Actors actual capacity to act in situation, given possible cognitive and institutional barriers

High/low If actors have low actual capacity, institutional or behavioural analysis to identify cognitive and institutional barriers to action are indicated

Characteristics of the Adaptation Options

Characteristic

Description Value Indication on critical tasks and appropriate methods

Relative costs

Investment costs relative to actors annual income and capital stock.

High/low If the costs are high, the ability to experiment and learn (through ex-post evaluation) may be reduced

Investment horizon

Time interval over which outcomes attributes can be attributed to an option and must be considered.

Short/long If the horizon is long, then it is desirable to assess impacts, or include impacts in decision -making

Flexibility Degree to which option can be adjusted, or changed.Institutional options tend to be more flexible than physical options

Yes/no If option can be adjusted easily, then adaptive management may be appropriate

Conflict Degree to which individual preferences and social welfare are in conflict

High/low If conflict is high, then institutional analysis may be necessary

Complexity Number and degree of interdependency of variables that determine outcomes

High/low If the complexity is high, it is necessary to conduct detailed case studies and/or build models in order to understand and predict action-outcome linkages.If low, decisions can be made without expert knowledge

The looped circles indicate that once a task has been identified and a method applied, the process should be repeated, based on the new adaptation situation to identify the next task.

Identifying Tasks Based on Adaptation

PROVIA (2012)

Analyse future impacts or current

state?

Impact analysis

Capacity analysis

Private sector

National prioritizing

Resource constraintsTime constraints

Lack of dataLarge uncertaintiesParticipatory setting

The focus on impact analysis or capacity analysis, is often not determined by clear-cut criteria:

•Impact analysis may be more appropriate to identify priorities for national or regional adaptation interventions or deeper analysis

•Capacity analysis may be more appropriate to identifying and designing actions at local levels.

Impact and Capacity Analysis

PROVIA (2012)

High-order Decision Tree for Capacity Analysis

Capacity of whom?

Organizational self- assessment

Public

Purpose of the analysis?

Adaptive capacity indication

Quick high-level screening in order to prioritize further analysis

Private

Public capacity analysis

Identification of public adaptation options

PROVIA (2012)

Analysing Impacts

• Analysing observed or expected impacts of climate change (with and without adaptation). Tasks and methods associated with this sub-task will be called impact-analytical approaches.

• Analysing the capacity to prevent, moderate or adapt to these impacts requires a diverse range of approaches including indicators, behaviour-analytical and institution-analytical approaches

Impact-analytical Methods

Decision Tree to Identify Impact Analytical Tasks and Methods

PROVIA (2012)

Impact-analytical Methods

MethodTypeSubtype

Impact Projection Potential Impact Projection (PIP)

Residual Impact Projection (RIP)

Task Project future impacts of climate change  

Characteristicsof Adaptation Strategies (AS)

Interaction between the drivers and the study unit can be formally represented as a computational model. Given a scenario , impacts can be computed

Theoreticalassumptions

People affected do not adapt. 

People affected adaptAdaptation can be formally represented by a computational model

Steps taken  

1. Selection of climate and socio-economic scenarios2. Computation of the potential impacts of those scenarios3. Evaluation of impacts using impact indicators 

1. Selection of climate and socio-economic scenarios2. Selection of adaptation options and strategies3. Computation of the impacts of the scenarios and the adaptation strategies4. Evaluation of impacts using impact indicators

Resultsachieved  

A list of propositions that map each scenario to an impact. Each proposition is interpreted in the following way: “When the world evolves according to scenario e and people don't adapt, the impact on will be i”

A list of propositions that map each scenario to a residual impact. Each proposition is interpreted: "When the world evolves according to scenario e and one adapts according to strategy a, the impact on the vulnerable system will be i"

Impact-analytical Methods (continued)

MethodTypeSubtype

Impact Projection Potential Impact Projection (PIP)

Residual Impact Projection (RIP)

ExampleCases

Dasgupta et al. (2007) address the question of what are the impacts of sea-level rise on developing countries. Impacts are projected for sea-level rise scenarios of 1 to 5 meter by overlaying data on land, population, agriculture,urban extent, wetlands and gross domestic product (GDP) with the inundation zones of the sea-level rise scenarios. They found that tens of millions of people will be displaced and economic damages will be severe but limited to a couple of countries

Hinkel et al. (2010) address the question of what will be both the potential and the residual impacts of sea-level rise on coastal countries of the EU27.The authors use the DIVA model to project the impacts of various sea-levelrise and socio-economic scenarios on the countries first without any adaptation (potential impacts) and then with an adaptation strategy (residualimpacts) that raises dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishesbeach to protect against coastal erosion. It is found that, while the potential impacts are substantial, adaptation reduces these impacts significantly by one or two orders of magnitude

Issues involved

Rarely understood that potential impacts will almost certainly not occur because adaptation will take place. For example, people living in the coastal zone are likely to move away before experiencing permanent flooding

How to model adaptation? Model of adaptation (e.g. dumb, typical, smart and clairvoyant farmer) used has a significant indication on the results produced

Decision-tree for choosing tasks relevant to analysing capacity from a public perspective in order to identify options

Decision-tree: Choosing Tasks Relevant to Analysing Capacity

PROVIA (2012)

Entry Point: Public Adaptation Problem in Which the Analyst Must Consider the Critical Tasks for Influence the Adaptation of Other (Private) Actors

Inter-dependence

Potentialcapacity of privateactors

Actualcapacityof privateactors

Example Indication on the next task to carry out

No High Low Public actor wanting to influence elderly people living in isolated areas, often alone threatened by heat waves

Behaviour analysis addressing the question: How the capacity of the vulnerable actors to address the risk could be increased. As the actual capacity of the vulnerable actors is low, awareness raising or behaviour and institutional analysis are indicated

No High High Public actor wanting to influence Tuscan wine farmers threatened by gradual change in mean temperature

As the vulnerable actors have

capacity to address risks but are not aware of it, the next task would be risk communication or awareness raising (risk communication, training, TV ads)

Yes Low Low Farmers using a shared and already scarce groundwater resource that is declining under climate change

Institutional analysis addressing the question what kind of institutional arrangements may resolve conflict

Yes High Low Public actor wanting to influence farmers so that they keep migration corridors open in order to allow species to migrate and thus maintain biodiversity

Appraising economic incentives. As actors may not have capacity to address the potential loss of biodiversity on their own due to lack of financial incentive to do so, addressing the problem may be a question of designing appropriate economic incentives e.g. through agri-environmental schemes

Decision Tree Institution-analytical Tasks

PROVIA (2012)

Decision-tree for Choosing the General Approach to Decision-making

PROVIA (2012)

Empirical Methods

Empirically based methods refer to the gathering of observable data to formulate and test a hypothesis and come to a conclusion(s). These methods require often substantial resources to be committed.

Methods for Selecting an Option From a Set

• Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)

• Cost-effective analysis (CEA)

• Multi-criteria analysis (MCA).

The criteria for selecting between CBA, CEA and MCA are based on

which outcome attributes are of interest to the decision maker.

If all attributes can be assigned one common attribute of money,

then CBA is appropriate.

If only one of the attributes cannot be assigned as a money attribute,

then CEA is appropriate.

When two or more attributes cannot be assigned a common

monetary attribute (and also cannot be expressed in one

common attribute) MCA is appropriate.

Selecting an Appropriate Decision-making Method Based on Characteristics of the Adaptation Situation

Are thererisks due tocurrentclimate variability?

Does the setof optionsinclude onlyshort-term/flexible options?

Given ascenario, can I computethe outcomeof a given option?

Relativecosts ofoptions

Example Next task indicated.

Yes Yes n/r High Agriculture threatened by drought, options = (several drought-resistant crops)

CBA, MCA

Yes No Yes High Forestry threatened by forest fires, options = (emergency response options; planting different tree species )Coasts threatened by floods.options = (protect, retreat, spread risk)

Robust decision-making on current and futuresoutcomes

No No Yes   Biodiversity is threatened as species habitats shifts decrease in area, and may not permit migration due to lack of corridors.options = (maintain habitat corridors, agri-environmental schemes, national park)

Robust decision-making on future options

Selecting an Appropriate Decision-making Method Based on Characteristics of the Adaptation Situation (continued)

Are thererisks due tocurrentclimate variability?

Does the setof optionsinclude onlyshort-term/flexible options?

Given ascenario, can I computethe outcomeof a given option?

Relativecosts ofoptions

Example Next task indicated.

No No Yes High Agriculture threatened by drought,Options = (improving irrigation)Ski lift operators threatened by decreasing snow fall.options = (summer tourism, artificial snow-making, give up)

Robust decision-making on current and future outcomes

No n/r No Not known

Extreme event risk in centralEurope

As the direction of the trend in risks is not clear, adaptation action is not required

PART 2:

Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks

Overview of Frameworks

• Description of some vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) frameworks

• One size does not fit all

• Select a framework or method that best suits:

a) The questions being asked

b) Who is asking them

c) What kind of answers are needed

d) What resources, time data and technical support are available

e) Have you used one before.

“Start with the end in mind”

Two Types of Frameworks

• Impacts:

a) Also known as “first generation” or “top down”

• Adaptation:

a) Also known as “second generation” or “bottom up”.

The Top-down Approach versus the Bottom-up Approach

Impacts Frameworks

• These frameworks are driven by the need to understand long-term consequences:

a) Tend to look out many decades (to 2100 or beyond)

b) Tend to be scenario driven

Adaptation Frameworks

• These frameworks are driven by the following:

• The need to supply useful information to stakeholders:

a) They tend to address near-term concerns

b) Often address climate variability and change

c) Emphasis is on the socio-economic context

• Stakeholder identification of issues and involvement in process:

a) Bring in analysis as necessary and appropriate

b) Can use consultative/consensus-building techniques.

Adaptation Continuum

(Source: McGray et al., (2007) in Klein and Persson, 2008)

Adaptation Continuum

(Source: McGray et al., 2007)

Adaptation Dimensions

Impacts Frameworks

• IPCC Seven Steps (1994)

• UNEP Handbook (1998)

• U.S. Country Studies Program (1993 -1999)

Basic Structure for Impacts Frameworks

Climate changescenarios

Biophysical impacts

Socioeconomic impacts

Autonomousadaptation Integration

Vulnerability

Purposeful adaptations

Baseline Scenarios• Population• GNP• Technology

• Institutions• Environment

IPCC Seven Steps

1. Define the problem

2. Select the method

3. Test the method

4. Select scenarios

5. Assess biophysical and socio-economic impacts

6. Assess autonomous adjustments

7. Evaluate adaptation strategies.

U.S. Country Studies Program

• Provided detailed guidance on specific methods:

a) Coastal resources

b) Agriculture

c) Livestock

d) Water resources

e) Vegetation

f) Human health

g) Wildlife

h) Fisheries

i) Adaptation

• Publications.

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Handbook

• Presents overviews of methods:

a) It is a source for information on different methods

b) Does not provide detailed guidance.

• Topics include:

a) Climate change scenarios

b) Socio-economic scenarios.

        

UNEP Handbook (continued)

• Integration

• Adaptation

• Water resources

• Coastal zones

• Agriculture

• Rangeland and livestock

• Human health

• Energy

• Forests

• Biodiversity

• Fisheries

Second Generation Adaptation Frameworks

• United nations Development Programme (UNDP):

a) Adaptation Policy Framework (2005)

b) Toolkit for Designing Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives (2010)

• National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) Guidance

• USAID Adapting to Climate Variability and Change (2007)

• Community Vulnerability Frameworks.

UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (2005)

Assessing

and

enh

ancing

adaptive capacity

Eng

aging stakeholders

APF COMPONENTS

Continuing theadaptation process

Formulating anadaptation strategy

Assessing futureclimate risks

Scoping and designingan adaptation process

Assessing currentvulnerability

UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (continued)

• Contains technical papers on the following:

a) Scoping and designing an adaptation project

b) Engaging stakeholders in the adaptation process

c) Assessing vulnerability for climate adaptation

d) Assessing current climate risks

e) Assessing future climate risks

f) Assessing current and changing socio-economic conditions

g) Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity

h) Formulating an adaptation strategy

i) Continuing the adaptation process.

UNDP Adaptation Toolkit (2010)

NAPA Guidance

• National Adaptation Programmes of Action

• Least developed countries (LDCs) identify and rank proposed measures to adapt to climate change

• Decision 28/CP.7

NAPA Process

NAPA Guidance (continued)

• The guidance document provides the framework for developing NAPAs

• It discusses the following:

a) Objectives and characteristics of NAPA’s guiding elements

b) Process

c) Structure.

• Outcome of COP17 Durban

• This guidance document, is not designed to replace NAPAs

• It is designed to allow all developing countries (not just LDCs as per NAPAs) to plan and implement medium-to long-term adaptation initiatives

• Support for the NAP process will be provided through a Global Support Programme (GSP) for implementation in the second half of 2012.

NAPA Guidance (continued)

Differences Between the NAPA and NAP process

(Source: Draft NAP Global Support Programme (GSP), submission to the GEF 2012)

USAID Framework

USAID Framework

Risk-Based Frameworks

• Risk is defined as:

The chance of something happening that will have an impact on objectives

• So risk is positive and negative

• And….must be a risk to something (a management objective).

Risk-Based Frameworks

(Source: AdaptiveFutures, 2011)

Risk-Based Frameworks

(Source: Australian Government, 2006)

Four NGO Local and Community Frameworks

Name Developer Target Audience Key inputs Key Outputs

CEDRA

Tearfund Development field practitioner with senior management support

Guidance and checklist for 6 steps to identify and prioritise hazards and adaptation options

Identifies risks and risk management of programme, including changes to portfolio of projects

CVCA

CARE Project managers, field staff, local partners and communities

Framework with supporting questions and exercises: participatory community level analysis combines local knowledge with climate science.

Assessment informs programming and provides evidence base for advocacy

CRiSTAL IISD, IUCN, SEI, IC

Community-level project planners and managers

Two module analytical framework for linking local livelihoods and climate. MS Excel interface for entering information and compiling report. Typically 1-5 days.

Results serve as a basis for designing or adjusting projects for adaptation

Adaptation Toolkit

Christian Aid Country Programme and partner staff

No set steps. Three toolkits for understanding livelihoods adaptation (PVCA), community climate analysis and strategy development

Analysis informs livelihood programming and cc strategy development

Selecting a Framework

• We are not recommending use of a particular

framework:

a) Different frameworks are appropriate for different needs

• What is needed in the long run is the integration of

climate change predictions and adaptation with a

baseline of vulnerability.

Selecting a Framework: Guiding Questions

• What is of concern – food production, water supply, health, ecosystem loss?

a) (Concerns may be expressed not in climate terms (e.g. extreme temperature) but in consequences of climate impacts for people (e.g. drought, flood, malnutrition)

• Are there places (areas) that may be particularly vulnerable that may need specific risk assessments?

• Who may be affected – where are they and what groups in society?

• How far into the future is the concern?

• For what purpose is the assessment to be used – raising awareness (education), policymaking?

• What kind of output is needed?

Application of Frameworks

• Projects often take longer and cost more than originally thought (or proposed)

• Be careful about complex frameworks

• You may only get through the first few steps before running out of time or funds

• Think about how a sectoral project will be run to promote consistency

• Think about integrating sectoral assessments at the end.

Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study

• You should not begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with the important questions

• Select methods and models that best help you answer the questions.