Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on

Training Workshop for the Asia and Pacific RegionJakarta, Indonesia, 20 March, 2006

Integration of V&A Analysisby

Arthur W. Rolle

Outline

General points Integration of results Cross sector and multi-sector integration Setting priorities

Vulnerability Adaptation Examples of Adaptation Integration Benefit-cost Analysis Conclusions

National Communications

Under Articles 4.1 and 12.1 Parties should develop and publish their national communications.

Under the new guidelines (decision 17/CP.8), Parties should communicate to the COP a general description of programs containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation, etc.

Reporting Requirements

The following categories of impacts/vulnerability are expected to be reported: agriculture, tourism, health, forests, water resources, infrastructure, rangeland, coastal regions, ecosystems and biodiversity, wildlife, fisheries and the economy.

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation

Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation, to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity [Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II)]

Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences [Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II]

After vulnerability and adaptation analyses- What’s next?

The interest should now be on incorporating initiatives, measures, strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change into other, existing policies, programs, resource management structures, disaster preparedness program, livelihood enhancement activities, and other sustainable development initiatives.

WHY?

It is unrealistic to expect special policy initiatives to deal with climate change adaptation by itself, especially when so many of the suggested adaptations (drought planning, coastal infrastructure planning, flood preparedness, early warning, livelihood enhancement, etc) were being addressed in other policies or programs.

Why is Integration Important?

Impacts do not happen in isolation Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively affect

another Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly Others just indirectly Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the affect

of climate change in another sector In addition, integration is necessary for ranking

vulnerabilities and adaptations

Main Types of Integration of Results

Cross-sector integration Link related sectors

Multisector Economy or system wide

Integrated assessment models Economic models

Some Integrated Assessment Models

IMAGE ICLIPS CLIMPACTS MIASMA

Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct Climate Effect

In a recent study, crop yields in California were generally estimated to increase with climate changeIn one scenario, a 25% reduction in water supply results in a net loss of $1 billion/year to California agriculture

Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT

CLIMATEPrecip.,Temp.,

Solar Rad.

WEAPEvaluationPlanning

CROPWATRegionalirrigation

CE Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT RESCrop water

demand

WATBALStreamflow

PET

SCENARIOSGCM

SCENARIOSPopulation, Development,

Technology

Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline

Indicator 1990 2060-Opt 2060-PesPopulation 54156 122% 122%GDP Ag 1143 96% 135%GDP non-Ag 4878 617% 224%Food price index 1.16 6.90% -3.40%

(1990 absolute; 2060-optimistic/pessimistic percentage change from 1990)

Multi-sector Integration Modeling

IMAGE Model

Regional/National Economic Models

Quantitative way to examine climate change market impacts throughout an economy Problem with non-market impacts

Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium models

Require much data Can be expensive Can be complex Communication of assumptions can be a

challenge

An Example of a Regional Model

A More “Simple” Approach

Add up results sector by sector Limited by what is known within sectors Problem of how to integrate across multiple

end points Impacts may be measured with different

metrics Need to account for many sectors Does not capture sectoral interactions

Estimates of Damages for India

Sector Damages ($ billions)

Agriculture -53.2

Forestry +0.1

Energy -21.9

Water -$1.2

Coastal Resources -$1.2

Can Also Measure Number of People Affected

“Millions at Risk” study did this Global burden of disease

Millions at Risk Study

At a Minimum

Should at least qualitatively identify linkages and possible direction of impacts

If crops can be examined, not water supply, then identify how change in water supply could affect agricultural production

Integration through Setting Priorities

Vulnerability Adaptation

Prioritization of Vulnerabilities

It can be quite useful for Focusing adaptation measures Monitoring Adaptation

Examples of Adaptation Integration

Caribbean (CPACC, GEF/WORLD BANK, CIDA) Integration of adaptation into national policies dealing with

risk management and into their Environment Impact Assessment procedures.

Mozambique (World Bank) Integrating Adaptation to climate change risks into Action

Plan for Poverty Reduction

Bangladesh (CARE-CIDA) Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into

sustainable development planning

Example of Adaptation Integration

China (ADB, World Bank) helping poor farmers adapt to drought

conditions- government undertook integrated ecosystems management-house-level eco-farming integrated renewable energy such as solar power, vineyard cultivation and legume planting for fixing sand and providing forage.

Process is as Important as Outcome

This is an expression of values, not a purely analytic exercise

Need to include stakeholders and policy makers

The following are tools that can be useful in setting priorities

Whether you use qualitative or quantitative approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT

NAPA Process

Adaptation Policy Framework

Table 4: Ranking of priority systems/regions/climate hazards

C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6

System/Region/Hazard

Social impacts

Economic impacts

Environmental impacts

Political impacts

Ranking

A          

B          

C          

OECD Method

Table 5.5. Nepal ranking

Resource/ranking Certainty of

impact Timing of

impact Severity of

impact Importance of

resource

Water resources (flooding) High High High High Agriculture Medium-low Medium-low Medium High Human health Low Medium ? High Biodiversity Low ? ? Medium-high

Ranking Adaptations

Screening Multicriteria assessment Benefit-cost analysis

Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism Adaptation Measure in Antigua

Multicriteria Assessment

Options Effectiveness Feasibility Cost Score

A 3 2 2 7

B 2 4 4 10

C 5 1 3 9

Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in Kazakhstan

Objective #1:

Food Security

Objective #2:

Exports

Objective #3:

Maximize Production

Objective #4: Sustainable

Agricult.

Objective #5:

Protect Env.

Objective #6:

Prevent Desertifi-

cation

Objective #7: Genetic

Diversity

Objective #8:

Employment

Measures Scenario: 5 2 3 5 2 3 1 4 Score

Current Current 4.00 0.70 1.00 2.00 4.00 4.00 4.50 4 74.9

Policy GFDL 1.00 0.50 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 1 32.5

+3; 0% 1.5 0.7 0.5 1.5 3 3 3 2 43.9

+2; +20% 3.5 1 1 2.5 4 4 4 3.5 73

Pest Current 5 2 3 3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 96

Forecast GFDL 2 1.5 0.7 1.5 2 3.3 3 1.1 43.9

+3; 0% 2.5 1.5 0.7 2 3 3.3 3 2.1 54.9

+2; +20% 4.5 2 1.5 3.5 4 4.3 4 3.6 87.8

Regional Current 5 1.5 2 2.5 4 4 5 4 87.5

Centers GFDL 1.00 1.00 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.00 5 1 35.5

+3; 0% 1.5 1 0.5 1.5 3 3 5 2 46.5

+2; +20% 3.5 1.5 1 2.5 4 4 5 3.5 75

Rules for Current 5 3 3.5 3 4 4 4.5 4 97

Free GFDL 1.3 1.1 0.8 2.5 2.5 3.5 3 1.3 47.3

Market +3; 0% 2 1.1 1 3 3.5 3.5 3 2.3 59.9

+2; +20% 4.5 1.7 2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 3.9 96.5

Reduce Current 5 3 5 5 5 5 4.5 4 116.5

Soil GFDL 2.5 1.5 1.5 3 4 3.5 3 1.2 61.3

Erosion +3; 0% 3.2 1.5 1.5 3.5 4.5 3.7 3 2.2 72.9

+2; +20% 4.3 2 2.2 4.5 5 5 4 3.8 98.8

Ranking Based on Scenario

Culture of Water Capture Runoff Use Different Building MaterialsCurrent Climate 1 2 3

Hotter and Drier 2 3 1

Hotter and Wetter 1 2 3

Benefit-Cost Analysis

Estimate all benefits and costs in a common metric to determine whether benefits > costs

Monetary values often used Difficulty: what to do about non-market

benefits or uncertainties Difficulty: requires much data and analysis

BCA Example: Sea Walls in Kiribati

What to Use

Conclusions

Integration is important to at least identify related impacts Analysis is desirable because there can be

surprises Integration can also be useful for examining

total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities

Conclusions

There should be involvement of local stakeholders, the private sector, individuals, the research community and different levels of government.

Awareness raising and capacity building also essential.