Using Montreal Protocol to Protect the Climate

Kristen N. TaddonioU.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Stephen O. AndersenCo-Chair, Technology & Economic Assessment Panel

The Montreal Protocol is successfully protecting ozone

> The Montreal Protocol has slowed and reversed the accumulation of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) in the stratosphere.

(Effective stratospheric chlorine is the weighted sum of chlorine and bromine gases in the stratosphere.)

UNEP/WMO Ozone Assessment, 2006

Transition from CFC to HCFC or HFC reduced greenhouse gas emissions ~10 time or more

Example:

Mobile air conditioning sector switched from CFC 12

(GWP 10,900 ODP 1) to HFC-134a (GWP 1,430 ODP 0)

UNEP/WMO Ozone Assessment, 2006

(ODPs) (GWPs)

CFC-11 = 1 CO2 = 1

G. Velders et al., PNAS, 2007

Montreal Protocol protection of climate

• Tan Line = Global CO2 emissions

• Green line = The CO2-equivalent of the ODS emissions that would have occurred if Molina and Rowland had not warned the world about CFCs. Note that the climate impact would have been greater than global CO2 emissions.

• Blue line = The CO2-equivalent of the ODS emissions that would have occurred without the Montreal Protocol.

• Black line = The CO2-equivalent of ODS emissions. Thanks to the Montreal Protocol, this is low.

The Montreal Protocol has also achieved extraordinary greenhouse gas reductions

Climate benefits of the Montreal Protocol

• By phasing out ozone-depleting substances, the world has avoided the equivalent of 135 billion gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent between the 1990 and 2010, equivalent to about 13% of accumulated emissions of CO2 from human activities.

• This effectively delayed climate change by 7 to 12 years.

• As of 2010, net GWP-weighted emissions reductions from ODSs are about 11 Gt CO2-eq yr.

• This is 5-6 times the reduction target of the first commitment period (2008-2012) of the Kyoto Protocol (2 Gt CO2-eq yr).

G. Velders et al., PNAS, 2007

However, larger than expected growth in use and emissions of HFCs and HCFCs

threatens to overwhelm the climate benefits achieved by the Montreal Protocol.

The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing

• Based on the most recent trends, HFC emissions in 2050: 5.5–8.8 GtCO2-eq yr • Equivalent to 9–19% of global CO2 emissions, assuming business-as-usual

Velders et al., PNAS (2009)

Article 5 Countries Leading the Way to Use Montreal Protocol to Further Protect the Climate

• The 2007 HCFC accelerated phaseout– Proposed by Article 5 countries– First time developing countries committed to a binding

agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

• Decision XIX/6 (9.) “To encourage Parties to promote the selection of alternatives to HCFCs that minimize environmental impacts, in particular impacts on climate….” (2007)

• Requests to the TEAP – Evaluate alternatives to HCFCs– Environmentally sound management of ODS banks

• Proposals to move HFCs to Montreal Protocol

HCFC Phaseout: Unprecedented Climate OpportunityCFC, HCFC or HFC Application Low-GWP Alternatives

Domestic Refrigerators and Freezers HC-600a

HC-600a & HC-290 blend

Unsaturated HFCs (also called HFOs)

Commercial Refrigeration HF-600a

HC-290

Carbon dioxide

Large Refrigeration Systems Ammonia

Carbon dioxide

Hydrocarbons

Air-cooled Air Conditioning & Heat Pumps

HCFC-22 > R410a, R407c

Hydrocarbons in systems with small refrigerant charge

HFOs

Chillers Ammonia

Hydrocarbons

Carbon Dioxide

HFOs

Mobile Air Conditioning HFO-1234yf

Carbon Dioxide

Polyurethane (PU) foams Hydrocarbons (except in spray foam)

CO2 (water), Supercritical CO2

HFO-1234ze

Alternative Insulation (glass fibre, rock fibre)

XPS foams CO2

Water

TEAP Task Force Decision XX/8 Report, May 2009

Life-Cycle Climate Performance Key to Success

• No alternative is a “one-size-fits all” solution

• Energy efficiency must be taken into account

• Goal: highest LCCP, not just lowest GWP!– Example: Mobile Air Conditioning– Alternatives CO2, HFC-152a, HFC-1234yf

• Important for sectors to identify highest LCCP alternatives as phase-out proceeds

The Montreal Protocol has strong climate benefits, and can achieve even

greater greenhouse gas reductions.

More Information• TEAP Reports

– “Environmentally Sound Management of Banks of Ozone-Depleting Substances” (June 2009)

– “Assessment of Alternative to HCFCs and HFCs” (May 2009)– Available at: http://ozone.unep.org/teap/Reports/

• Guus J.M. Velders, Stephen O. Andersen, John S. Daniel, David W. Fahey, and Mack McFarland. “The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS) March 20, 2007 vol. 104 no. 12 4814-4819

• Guus J. M. Velders, David W. Fahey, John S. Daniel, Mack McFarland, and Stephen O. Andersen. “The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing” PNAS July 7, 2009 vol. 106 no. 27 10949-10954

• Available on-line at: www.pnas.org

More Information

Kristen N. Taddonio

Taddonio.Kristen@epa.gov

Stephen O. Andersen

SOliverAndersen@aol.com