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Addressing HFC Consumption Under the Montreal Protocol

Dr. John E. ThompsonDeputy DirectorOffice of Environmental PolicyU.S. Department of State

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Scope of Presentation

• Rationale for Action

• Linkages between ODS and HFCs

• 2010 North American Amendment Proposal Overview

• Environmental Benefits

Projected HFC Growth:

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PNAS, 2009, Velders, et al U.S. EPA, 2009Historical & Projected HFC Consumption

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Co

ns

um

pti

on

(M

MT

CO

2eq

)

A5Non-A5World

HFC growth linked to ODS phaseout, expanding availability of air conditioning & refrigeration

Taking Action for Sound ODS Phaseout

• HFC Growth is direct result of ODS phaseout• Montreal Protocol experience and success on HFC-sectors

– Refrigeration– Air Conditioning– Foams – Aerosols– Solvents– Fire Suppression

• Montreal Protocol Heavily Involved in addressing HFCs– Phaseout of HCFCs currently being implemented– Multilateral Fund incentivizes transition to climate-friendly alternatives

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Many Substitutes Available and More on the Way

• “The ultimate choice of technology to phase-out HCFCs will be based on ozone depletion and also climate impact, health, safety, affordability and availability, as Decision XIX/6 requires”

May 2010 TEAP XXI/9 Task Force Report Assessment Of HCFCs and Environmentally Sound Alternatives

• 2010 TEAP Progress Report– Substitutes for many sectors and sub-sectors available– Additional substitutes under development– Global acceptance for alternatives strengthening

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2010 North American Proposal• Control HFC production and consumption• Control by-product emissions of HFC-23• Covers 20 HFCs, including 2 HFOs• Phasedown, not Phaseout of HFCs

– Baseline is combination of HCFC and HFC consumption (allows some growth)– Alternatives already available or in pipeline in some sectors (MVAC, domestic

refrigeration, foams)– Alternatives unavailable in a few sectors (MDIs)– Caps initiate in 2014 and 2017– Plateau 15% of Baseline, GWP-weighted (2033 and 2043)

• Ways to Achieve Phasedown– Transition out of HFCs– Smaller Charge Sizes– Move from High to Low GWP HFCs

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Trilateral Proposal Phasedown Schedule

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Years

Ca

p -

Pe

rce

nt

of

Ba

se

lin

e

Non-A5 Reduction Steps

A5 Reduction Steps

90% 90%

70% 70%

80%80%

50%50%

30%30%

15%15%

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2010 Trilateral Amendment Proposal

• HFC-23 Byproduct Control– From HCFC-22 Production– Significant HFC-23 Emissions Uncontrolled– By-product emissions subject to control

• Obligation eligible for Multilateral Fund assistance

– Additional benefits of 6,000 MtCO2eq by 2050• Technical and Financial Support – MLF

– Incremental cost model – has worked in these sectors– Bigger problem if we wait

• Complements but leaves unchanged UNFCCC obligations – Supports global efforts to reduce GHGs– Leave HFCs in UNFCCC basket – accounting and reporting

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Substantial Climate Benefits Possible

• Trilateral Proposal global cumulative benefits:– ~3,000 MtCO2eq* through 2020

• Developed country Parties = 3,000 MtCO2eq

• Developing country Parties = 150 MtCO2eq

– ~88,000 MtCO2eq through 2050• Developed country 5 Parties = 43,000 MtCO2eq

• Developing country Parties = 45,000 MtCO2eq

• EPA’s Analysis of HFC Production and Consumption Controls:www.epa.gov/ozone/downloads/Analysis_of_HFC_Production_and_Consumption_Controls.pdf

*MtCO2eq is the same as MMTCO2eq

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

North AmericanProposal (2014-

2050)

MicronesiaProposal (2013-

2050)

MontrealProtocol (1990-

2010)

AcceleratedHCFC Phaseout

(2010-2039)

Kyoto Protocol(2008-2012)

CopenhagenAccord (2012-

2020)

Annex IEmissions in

2007

consumptionreductions emission reductions emissions

North American Proposal Benefits M

MT

CO

2eq

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Final Thoughts

• Montreal Protocol appropriate vehicle– HFCs use tied to ODS phaseout– Successful global agreement– Effective financial mechanism– Sector expertise

• Known alternatives, technologies, and better handling can reduce HFC consumption

• Developed countries start transition• Significant near-term climate benefits