u.s. energy market outlook - u.s. energy information ... · u.s. energy market outlook for ... the...

www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

U.S. Energy Market Outlook

for The Energy Forum November 29, 2012 | New York City, NY by Adam Sieminski, Administrator

My vision for the next four years at the Energy Information Administration

2 Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012

Basic principles:


• Better, faster, and cheaper data collection & analysis

• Adopt best practices

• More good people


Today in Energy articles highlight a wide range of energy related topics: • Key findings from EIA reports

• Technological impacts

• Current events and trends

EIA website: a wealth of data and analysis

EIA updates state level datasets with mapping features and energy infrastructure datasets

Source: EIA

Interactive map links to state level energy data


EIA’s Hurricane Sandy reporting


Significant energy infrastructure was threatened by the storm surge from Hurricane Sandy


Source: EIA based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Power plants over 100 MW


Source: EIA based on U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity Delivery and Reliability situation reports. Data reflects reports available through November 13.

Electric customer outages and restoration times from Hurricane Sandy

8/27/11 8/29 8/31 9/2 9/4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10/29 10/31 11/2 11/4 11/6 11/8 11/10 11/12

power outages million customers

Other States New Jersey

New York Pennsylvania

Hurricane Irene total outages

Sandy Irene

New York City metropolitan area covered by emergency survey


Source: EIA Emergency Gasoline Availability Survey

New York City metropolitan area gas station availability


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2-Nov 3-Nov 4-Nov 5-Nov 6-Nov 7-Nov 8-Nov

Operating No contact No power No gasoline supply

percent of gas stations

Source: EIA Emergency Gasoline Availability Survey


New York harbor pipelines and terminals

Recent changes in the heating oil market


Heating fuel market shares vary regionally

13

Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2012

DC

Number of homes by primary space heating fuel and Census Region, winter 2012-13

Northeast

South

Midwest

West

U.S. total 115 million homes

natural gas

propane heating oil electricity

wood kerosene/other/no heating

Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012

U.S. current population-weighted heating degree-days

The U.S. winter 2012-13 heating season forecast is about 4% warmer than the 30-year average, but 17% colder than last winter

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 (NOAA forecast)

14

Note: Horizontal bars indicate monthly average degree days over the period 1981-2010. Source: EIA calculations based on NOAA state history and forecasts (November 26, 2012) weighted by same-year populations.


Heating oil remains much more expensive than natural gas

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

natural gas heating oil

15

U.S. average residential winter heating fuel prices dollars per million Btu

forecast history

Winter (October - March)

Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2012


Key issues in the domestic fuel markets


Primary energy use by fuel, 1980-2035 …in absolute terms, all fuels grow except petroleum liquids

17

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

U.S. energy consumption quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012

Projections History 2010

Renewables (excluding biofuels)

Liquid biofuels

Petroleum and other liquids

Coal

Nuclear

Natural gas

21%

37%

9%

25%

7% 1%

20%

32%

9%

26%

11% 4%

Share of total U.S. energy use


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Energy-related CO2 emissions

2005 2020 2035 Energy-related CO2 emissions

6.00 5.43 5.76

% change from 2005 - - -9.4% -4.0%

Energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to pre-recession levels in the AEO2012 Reference case

18

energy carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons


Projections History 2010 2005


Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012 19

Lower 48 oil and gas shale plays and federal lands

Source: U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of the Interior ‘s National Atlas of the United States

Domestic production of shale gas and tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years

20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Eagle Ford Bakken Granite Wash Bone Spring Monterey Woodford Niobrara Spraberry Austin Chalk

tight oil production for select plays million barrels of oil per day

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Rest of US

Bakken

Eagle Ford

Marcellus

Haynesville

Woodford

Fayetteville

Barnett

Antrim

shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day


Sources shale gas: Lippman Consulting, Inc. gross withdrawal estimates as of August 2012 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play.

Source tight oil: HPDI, Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through June 2012.

21

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet



Consumption

Domestic production

U.S. becomes a net natural gas exporter in 2022

5%

11% Net imports, 2010

Net exports, 2035


Bakken production on federal, non-federal and BIA lands

Source: EIA


U.S. dependence on imported petroleum declines …moves even lower in various side case scenarios

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day




Consumption

Domestic supply

Net petroleum imports 49% 36%

60%

2005

15% High TRR/ Vehicle Policy case Net imports, 2005

Net imports,

2035

Key issues in the global oil markets


Non-OECD liquid fuels use is expected to surpasses almost flat OECD liquid fuels use in the near future

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

total liquids consumption million barrels per day



Other non-OECD

OECD Americas

OECD

62

48

40%

19%

35%

41

Non-OECD 46


U.S. leads the league table for non-OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels growth over the next two years

26

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Can

ada

Col

ombi

a

Rus

sia

Chi

na

Kaz

akhs

tan

Bra

zil

Indi

a

Viet

nam

Om

an

Gab

on

Egy

pt

Mal

aysi

a

Aus

tralia

Oth

er N

orth

Sea

Aze

rbai

jan

Mex

ico

Syr

ia

Nor

way

Sud

an

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

2012 2013

Source: EIA ,Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2012

change in production from previous year million barrels per day


Estimated unplanned production disruptions among non-OPEC producers, through October 2012

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Yemen United States Syria Sudan/S. Sudan North Sea Mexico Colombia China Canada Brazil Australia Argentina

thousand barrels per day

Source: EIA Availability and Price of Petroleum and Petroleum Products Produced in Countries Other Than Iran Report, October 2012


2012 oil production


9.9 9.9

6.2

0.4 1.6

2.4

1.1

0.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Russia Saudi Arabia United States

Other

Refinery Gains

NGL

Crude

U.S. Q4 estimate 6.7 mb/d Crude oil

million barrels per day

Source: EIA, data through June 2012

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2001-2011 average Surplus Capacity

million barrels per day

Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2012

forecast

Systemic energy security risk issues


• Oil choke points

• Natural disasters

• Electric reliability concerns

• Refining capacity outages

• Other energy infrastructure issues

For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy


EIA Information Center [email protected] Our average response time is within three business days.

(202) 586-8800 24-hour automated information line about EIA and frequently asked questions.

http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/steo

http://www.eia.gov/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/ieo

http://www.eia.gov/mer

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

mailto:[email protected]

u.s. energy market outlook - u.s. energy information ... · u.s. energy market outlook for ... the...

Documents