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www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
EIA’s Final Release Annual Energy Outlook 2012: Focus on U.S. coal distribution changes through 2035
Diane Kearney, Operations Research Analyst Rail Energy Transportation Advisory Committee to the Surface Transportation Board September 20, 2012| Washington, D.C.
Energy Information Administration
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• Statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy
• Produces monthly short-term and annual long-term
projections
• Produces special analyses of emerging issues and regulatory changes
• EIA’s analyses and projections are independent, by law,
and should not be seen as representing the views of the Department of Energy, the Administration, or any other organization.
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Overall results from the AEO2012 Reference case, which assumes current laws remain unchanged
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• Projected growth of energy use slows over the projection period reflecting an extended economic recovery and increasing energy efficiency in end-use applications
• Domestic crude oil production increases, reaching levels not experienced since 1994 by 2020
• Natural gas production increases throughout the projection period and exceeds consumption early in the next decade
• Renewables and natural gas fuel a growing share of electric power generation
• Total U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain below their 2005 level through 2035
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Key factors affecting the outlook for coal
Diane Kearney, Washington, DC, November 8, 2011 4
• sustained low natural gas prices
• higher coal prices
• slow growth in electricity demand
• implementation of Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) and Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR)
• Renewable portfolio standards
Coal consumption by sector, 1970-2035
5
million short tons
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release and Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (final)
History 2010 Projections
Electricity
Other Coal-to-Liquids
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AEO2012 Early Release: Total
AEO2012 Reference Case: Total
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2035
6
billion kilowatthours
Coal
Petroleum
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Renewables
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Note: Includes generation from plants in both the electric power and end-use sectors. Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review; Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case.
Projections History 2010
Short Term Energy Outlook, September 2012
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Average Delivered Price of Coal and Natural Gas to the Electric Power Sector, 1980-2035
7
2010 dollars per million Btu
Natural Gas
High Technically Recoverable
Resource
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Short Term Energy Outlook, September 2012
Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review and Electric Power Monthly; Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference Case.
History Projections
Coal
2010
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Coal-fired generating capacity in the electric power sector by coal demand region, 2010 and 2035
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
702010 AEO2012 Early Release: 2035 AEO2012 Reference: 2035
gigawatts, net summer
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Early Release and Reference Case
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Overall coal supply – general trends
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Alaska/Washington
Arizona/New Mexico
Rocky Mountain
Western Wyoming
Wyoming PRB
Western Montana
Dakota Lignite
Gulf Lignite
Western Interior
Eastern Interior
Southern Appalachia
Central Appalachia
Northern Appalachia
million short tons
Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (final publication)
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Coal Exports by region, 2010-2035
10
million short tons
Source: 2010: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Distribution Report; Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Appalachia Interior Western
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Coal Seaborne Import Demand for China, 2010-2035
11
million short tons
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
China coking coal China thermal coal
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Coal Seaborne Import Demand for India, 2010-2035
12
million short tons
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
India coking coal India thermal coal
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Demand regional definitions used in this presentation
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Region 1 Region 2 States
Northeast Northeast Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania
Midwest East North Central Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin
West North Central Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota
South South – East of the Mississippi Delaware, District of Colombia, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee
South – West of the Mississippi Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas
West West Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Wyoming Powder River supply by destination 2010, 2015, 2035
14
million short tons
2015
2010
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
0.0
93.5
107.249.5
96.8
34.9
0.6
Total: 382.4
Source: 2010: Annual Coal Distribution Report (June 28, 2012); Projections: Annual Energy Outlook 2012
3.6
119.7
115.736.4
109.5
21.5
3.5
Total: 409.9
0.0
155.7
111.453.8
105.3
53.4
0.2
NortheastEast North CentralWest North CentralSouth - East of MississippiSouth - West of MississippiWestExports
Total: 479.9
2035
*excludes coal-to-liquids, waste coal, and lignite
Western Montana (excluding lignite) supply by destination 2010, 2015, 2035
15
million short tons
2015
2010
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Source: 2010: Annual Coal Distribution Report (June 28, 2012); Projections: Annual Energy Outlook 2012
*2010 includes some lignite
2.7
13.4
19.3
2.00.0
18.5
21.4
NortheastEast North CentralWest North CentralSouth - East of MississippiSouth - West of MississippiWestExports
Total: 77.3
2035
1.0
12.6
17.8
2.30.0
15.2
9.8
Total: 58.8
0.2
11.8
10.4
0.00.0
14.4
4.1
Total: 40.9
*excludes coal-to-liquids, waste coal, and lignite
Rocky Mountain supply by destination 2010, 2015, 2035
16
million short tons
2015
2010
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Source: 2010: Annual Coal Distribution Report (June 28, 2012); Projections: Annual Energy Outlook 2012
0.0 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.0
25.1
5.2
Total: 31.3
0.0
1.70.6
8.0
0.5
29.6
1.5
Total: 41.8
0.0 0.80.0 1.30.0
19.4
10.1
NortheastEast North CentralWest North CentralSouth - East of MississippiSouth - West of MississippiWestExports
Total: 31.7
2035 2015
*excludes coal-to-liquids, waste coal, and lignite
Northern Appalachian supply by destination 2010, 2015, 2035
17
million short tons
2015
2010
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Source: 2010: Annual Coal Distribution Report (June 28, 2012); Projections: Annual Energy Outlook 2012
40.9
29.1
0.0
57.4
0.0 0.0 21.4
Total: 148.7
47.3
32.30.0
36.3
0.0 0.014.6
Total: 130.5 44.0
35.7
0.0
70.6
0.00.0
31.3
NortheastEast North CentralWest North CentralSouth - East of MississippiSouth - West of MississippiWestExports
Total: 181.6
2035
*excludes coal-to-liquids, waste coal, and lignite
Central Appalachia supply by destination 2010, 2015, 2035
18
million short tons
2015
2010
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
6.88.4
40.30.0
32.9
Northeast Midwest SouthWest Exports
Total: 88.5
8.9
16.6
58.70.0
47.7
Total: 131.8
Source: 2010: Annual Coal Distribution Report (June 28, 2012); Projections: Annual Energy Outlook 2012
7.9
25.9
112.4
0.0
42.3
Total: 199.6
2035
*excludes coal-to-liquids, waste coal, and lignite
Southern Appalachian supply by destination 2010, 2015, 2035
19
million short tons
2015
2010
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Source: 2010: Annual Coal Distribution Report (June 28, 2012); Projections: Annual Energy Outlook 2012
6.6
14.8
South - East of Mississippi Exports
Total: 21.4
2035
5.4
14.0
Total: 19.5
10.2
9.4
Total: 19.6
*excludes coal-to-liquids, waste coal, and lignite
Eastern Interior supply by destination 2010, 2015, 2035
20
million short tons
2015
2010
Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012
Source: 2010: Annual Coal Distribution Report (June 28, 2012); Projections: Annual Energy Outlook 2012
0.0
44.6
2.2
50.4
0.00.0
9.8
Total: 107.1
0.6
50.4
2.8
54.3
0.0
0.05.3
Total:113.3
0.0
30.1
2.2
84.2
0.00.0
16.6
NortheastEast North CentralWest North CentralSouth - East of MississippiSouth - West of MississippiWestExports
Total: 133.2
2035
*excludes coal-to-liquids, waste coal, and lignite
For more information
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Diane Kearney Washington, DC, September 20, 2012