u.s. energy outlook · u.s. energy production quadrillion btu source: eia, annual energy outlook...

www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

U.S. Energy Outlook

Harvard UniversityJohn F. Kennedy School of GovernmentMarch 10, 2014 | Cambridge, MA

ByAdam Sieminski, EIA Administrator

U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting steady growth in GDP offset by improving energy efficiency

2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. primary energy consumptionquadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release

History Projections2012

37%

18%

27%

8%

8%

1%

32%

10%

18%

30%

8%2%

Nuclear

Oil and other liquids

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels)

2025

34%

19%

27%

8%

9%

2%Liquid biofuels

2040

Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014

U.S. production grows rapidly, particularly natural gas, renewables, and liquids in the near term

3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. energy productionquadrillion Btu



26%

21%

31%

11%

10%

22%

38%

20%

12%

8%Nuclear

Crude oil and natural gas plant liquids

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables

2025

23%

24%

34%

11%

8%

2040


The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources

4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Eagle Ford (TX)Bakken (MT & ND)Spraberry (TX & NM Permian)Bonespring (TX & NM Permian)Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian)Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian)Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY)HaynesvilleMarcellusWoodford (OK)Granite Wash (OK & TX)Austin Chalk (LA & TX)Monterey (CA)

U.S. tight oil productionmillion barrels of oil per day

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Marcellus (PA & WV)Eagle Ford (TX)Haynesville (LA & TX)Barnett (TX)Fayetteville (AR)Woodford (OK)Bakken (ND)Antrim (MI, IN, & OH)Rest of US 'shale'

U.S. dry shale gas productionbillion cubic feet per day

Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through January 2014 and represent EIA’s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).


U.S. crude oil and natural gas production is up dramatically since 2010 and will continue to grow rapidly; this has strategic implications for the United States

• Refinery operations/investment

• Logistics infrastructure investment

• Exports of petroleum products

• Exports of crude oil and natural gas (LNG)

• Operation of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

5Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014

U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 to reach half of U.S. output

6

U.S. dry natural gas productiontrillion cubic feet


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Associated with oilCoalbed methane

Tight gas

Shale gas

AlaskaNon-associated offshore

Non-associated onshore

ProjectionsHistory 2012


billion cubic feet per day

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. dry gas consumptiontrillion cubic feet


ProjectionsHistory

Industrial*

Electricpower

Commercial

Residential

Transportation**

11.2

4.1

1.7

11.0

3.6

9.1

4.2

0.7

8.5

2.9

*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel**Includes pipeline fuel

U.S. natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use


U.S. manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low natural gas prices, particularly in the near term

8

manufacturing natural gas consumptionquadrillion Btu



0

4

8

12

16

20

24

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2010 2025 2040AluminumGlass

Iron and steel

Paper

Food

Refining andrelated

Bulk chemicals

Other

Metal based


durables

manufacturing

U.S. natural gas use in the transportation sector grows rapidly with the largest share in freight trucks

9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

natural gas use by modetrillion Btu billion cubic feet per day



Freight trucks

Buses

Freight rail and marineLight-duty vehicles

22%

Approximate crude oil equivalent, (thousand barrels per day) 2040

Freight trucksFreight rail and marineBusesLight-duty vehicles

29071389

U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future

10

U.S. dry natural gastrillion cubic feet per year



-10

0

10

20

30

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040


Consumption

Domestic supply

Net exports

100

75

50

25

0

-25


U.S. natural gas imports and exportstrillion cubic feet per year

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Alaska LNG exports

Pipeline exports to Mexico

Pipeline exports to Canada

Lower 48 states LNG exports

Pipeline imports from Canada

LNG imports


11

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25


5.4 tcf of exports(14.8 bcf/day)

2.0 tcf of imports(5.4 bcf/day)

U.S. natural gas gross exports exceed 5 tcf in 2025



Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical high

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. crude oil productionmillion barrels per day



Tight oil

Alaska

Other lower 48 onshore

Lower 48 offshore


U.S. maximum production level of9.6 million barrels per day in 1970

U.S. transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines, while diesel fuel accounts for a growing portion of the market

13

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

transportation energy consumption by fuelquadrillion Btu




59% Motor gasoline

Jet fuel

CNG/LNG

12% 13%3%

44%

31%

3% 4%Other*

Diesel22%

2030

47%

13%3%

30%

1%

2040

Ethanol4%5%

5%

*Includes aviation gasoline, propane, residual fuel oil, lubricants, electricity, and liquid hydrogen

U.S. petroleum product imports and exportsmillion barrels per day

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Other petroleumproduct imports

Distillate exports

Motor gasoline exports

Other petroleumproduct exports

Distillate imports

Motor gasoline imports


Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014 14

U.S. maintains status as a net exporter of petroleum products


Total petroleum product net exports

U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines, particularly in the near term

15

U.S. liquid fuel supplymillion barrels per day

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case and draft analysis

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Consumption

Domestic supply

Net imports40%

32%


60%


25%

2016 2040

OPEC countries now account for most unplanned outages

16

estimated unplanned crude oil production outagesthousand barrels per day

Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2014

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014

Other Non-OPEC

Syria

Sudan/S. Sudan

Iraq

Nigeria

Libya

Iran

Non-OPEC

OPEC


For more information

Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014 17

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state

Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 29% from 2012 to 2040

18

U.S. electricity usepercent growth (3-year rolling average)


Projections

History 2012

Period Annual Growth__Electricity use GDP

1950s 9.8 4.11960s 7.3 4.41970s 4.7 3.21980s 2.9 3.01990s 2.4 3.22000-2012 0.7 1.82013-2040 0.9 2.4

Gross domestic product

Electricity use


Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation

19

electricity net generationtrillion kilowatthours per year


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

13%

30%

19%

37%

12%

1% NuclearOil and other liquids

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables

2012ProjectionsHistory

16%

16%

32%

35%

<1%

1993

11%13%

19%

53%

4%

30%

17%

37%

15%

1%

2025 2040


Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2012 and 2040

20

non-hydropower renewable generationbillion kilowatthours per year


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Wind

Solar

GeothermalMunicipal waste

Biomass

Industrial CHP

Power sector

2012 ProjectionsHistory


CO2 per dollar of GDP declines faster than energy use per dollar of GDP reflecting the shift to lower carbon fuels

21

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

energy and emission intensityindex, 2005=1



Carbon dioxide emissionsper 2005 dollar GDP

Energy use per 2005dollar of GDP

Energy use per capita

2005


U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions remain below the 2005 level throughout the projection period

22

carbon dioxide emissionsbillion metric tons


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040



Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are 9% below the 2005 level in 2020 and 7% below the

2005 level in 2040.

23

An implicit or explicit carbon value growing at a 5% real rate has a huge impact on the projected generation mix in AEO2014 U.S. electricity net generationtrillion kilowatthours

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 2010 2025 20400

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 2010 2025 20400

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 2010 2025 2040

2014 Reference Case2012

Natural gas

$10 Carbon Fee

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

34%

23%

22%

19%

$25 Carbon Fee

Natural gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

32%

27%

38%

1%


30%

12%

19%

35%

Natural gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Coal

35%

16%

16%

32%

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release and Preliminary side cases

u.s. energy outlook · u.s. energy production quadrillion btu source: eia, annual energy outlook...

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