upm results q1 2016 · 2018-09-10 · to earnings in 2016 and beyond 8 lappeenranta biorefinery...
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UPM RESULTS Q1 2016
Jussi PesonenPresident and CEO
26 April 2016
| © UPM
Q1 2016 – growth projects and cost efficiency
measures deliver improved earnings
EBITDA increased by 24%
+ Cost efficiency measures resulted in
significantly lower variable, fixed costs
+ Growth projects contributed to earnings
+ Realised currency hedges neutral
+ Operational efficiency on a good level
Comparable EBIT increased by 34% to
EUR 281m (210m)
Strong operating cash flow at
EUR 341m (108m)
Net debt decreased to EUR 1,873m
(2,419m)
2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Q113
Q213
Q313
Q413
Q114
Q214
Q314
Q414
Q115
Q215
Q315
Q415
Q116
EURm Comparable EBITDA
403
325
| © UPM
Mostly favourable market demand in Q1 2016
Growing demand
• Pulp
• Advanced biofuels
• Self-adhesive label
materials
• Label, pack and release
materials
• Office papers in Asia
• Plywood
Stable demand
• Electricity
• Fine papers in Asia
• Sawn timber
Declining demand
• Graphic papers in Europe
and North America
3 | © UPM
| © UPM
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
EBITDA
Q1/15
EBITDA
Q1/16
Comparable EBITDA in Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015
Raflatac
Paper
AsiaOther
operations
and
eliminations
Energy
Biorefining
Paper
ENA
Plywood
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
EBITDA
Q1/15
EBITDA
Q1/16
EURm
Prices
Variable
costs
Fixed
costs
Deliveries
UPM benefited from cost efficiency
measures in a deflationary
business environment EURm
Cost efficiency improved in all businesses.
Biorefining, Raflatac and Paper Asia
showed growth in deliveries
4
32513.1%
40316.5%
Currency,
net
impact
32513.1%
40316.5%
| © UPM
Comparable EBIT by business area
5
0
2,5
5
7,5
10
12,5
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q114
Q314
Q115
Q315
Q116
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
30
60
90
120
150
Q114
Q314
Q115
Q315
Q116
0
15
30
45
60
0
20
40
60
80
Q114
Q314
Q115
Q315
Q116
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q114
Q314
Q115
Q315
Q116
-2
0
2
4
6
-25
0
25
50
75
Q114
Q314
Q115
Q315
Q116
0
4
8
12
16
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q114
Q314
Q115
Q315
Q116
EURm % of salesUPM Paper Asia EURm % of salesUPM Paper ENA EURm % of salesUPM Plywood
EURm % of salesUPM RaflatacEURm % of salesUPM EnergyEURm % of salesUPM Biorefining
| © UPM
Strong cash flow
6
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
Q11
1
Q21
1
Q31
1
Q41
1
Q11
2
Q21
2
Q31
2
Q41
2
Q11
3
Q21
3
Q31
3
Q41
3
Q11
4
Q21
4
Q31
4
Q41
4
Q11
5
Q21
5
Q31
5
Q41
5
Q11
6
Operating cash flow
Cash flow
after investing
activities
EURm Cash flow, trailing 12 months
• Q1 2016 operating cash
flow was EUR 341m
(108m)
• In Q1 2016, working capital
increased seasonally by
EUR 14m (EUR 147m)
• In the latest 12 months,
operating cash flow was
EUR 1,418m (1,085m),
EUR 2.66 per share (2.03)
| © UPM
Balance sheet continued to strengthen
7
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
Net debt, EURmNet debt / EBITDA(trailing 12 months)
Net debt
Net debt / EBITDA
1.3
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Net debt, EURm Gearing %
Net debt
Gearing
23
Liquidity was EUR 1.9bn at the end of Q1 2016
Repayments total EUR 0.2bn in 2016
| © UPM
Growth projects ramping up and contributing
to earnings in 2016 and beyond
8
Lappeenranta
biorefinery
120m litres of
renewable diesel
UPM Plywood
Otepää mill
expansion
to 90,000m3
Kymi
pulp mill
expansion
170,000t
UPM Raflatac
50% expansion in
APAC, growth in filmic
labelstock in Poland
UPM Paper Asia
Changshu
new speciality
paper machine
360,000t
Pietarsaari
pulp mill
expansion
70,000t
Fray Bentos
pulp mill
expansion
100,000t
Kaukas
pulp mill efficiency
improvement, paper and
pulp decoupling completed
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Capex so far EUR 680m Remaining EUR 90m
| © UPM
| © UPM
UPM is well positioned for 2016
UPM actions continue:
• Ramp-up at UPM Changshu PM3 and the
Lappeenranta biorefinery
• Full potential of the pulp mills
• UPM Kaukas and UPM Otepää investments
• Cost efficiency measures
• Closure of Madison Paper Industries,
sale of UPM Schwedt paper mill assets
Scheduled maintenance stops:
• Pulp (Q3, Q4) and paper mills (Q2, Q4),
Lappeenranta biorefinery (Q2) and
Olkiluoto nuclear power plant units (Q2)
9
| © UPM| © UPM10
Outlook for 2016 is unchanged
• UPM’s profitability improved in 2015 and the improvement is expected to continue in 2016.
• UPM’s growth projects are expected to contribute positively to the company’s earnings in 2016, compared with 2015.
• UPM continues its measures to reduce variable and fixed costs also in 2016.
• Currencies are expected to contribute positively as hedges roll over, assuming relevant currencies stay at about the same level as at the end of 2015.
| © UPM
| © UPM
Summary
Strong Q1 2016 results
• Cost efficiency measures
• Growth projects
• Strong cash flow, record-strong balance sheet
UPM is well positioned for 2016
• Ramp-up of growth projects continues
• Cost efficiency measures continue
Strong cash flow and balance sheet
• UPM is in a unique position to simultaneously
distribute attractive dividend,
implement growth projects and
act on strategic opportunities
11
| © UPM12
Performance1 Growth2 Portfolio3 Innovation4
UPM strategic focus areas
Continuous
improvement in
performance
“Cost efficiency
measures”
Focused growth
projects
“EBITDA target for
growth projects
EUR 200m”
Business portfolio
development and
value creation
“Net debt reduction
EUR 546m”
New business and
product
development
“Biofuels
commercial
ramp-up”
| © UPM
Strengths of UPM’s model
13
Top performance
Industry-leading
balance sheet
Attractive dividend
Strong cash flowFocused
investments
| © UPM
Sales
EUR 2,446m -2%
Comparable EBITDA
EUR 403m +78m
Q1 2016 – growth projects and cost efficiency
measures deliver improved earnings
15
Comparable EBIT
EUR 281m +71m
Comparable profit before tax
EUR 267m +79m
Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015:
Comparable EPS
EUR 0.42 +0.12
Net debt
EUR 1,873m -546m
Operating cash flow
EUR 341m +233m
Gearing
23% -8pp
Net debt / EBITDA
1.31x -0.54x
Comparable ROE
11.3% +2.9pp
| © UPM
Low investment needs in existing assets allow
growth projects with modest total capex
16
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e
EURm
Operational investments
329
Capital expenditure
Strategic investments
Depreciation
Uruguay
acquisition
Myllykoski
acquisition
486
Estimate
375 350
| © UPM
Maturity profile and liquidity
17
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022-2
027
2028
2029
2030
EUR million
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022-2
027
2028
2029
2030
EUR million
Liquidity
Liquidity on 31 March 2016 was EUR 1.9bn
(cash and unused credit facilities)
Bilateral committed credit facilities EUR 1,075m
Committed credit facilities EUR 1,075m
Maturity profile of outstanding debt Committed credit facilities’ maturities
| © UPM
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Q4 15
Q1 16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
UPM Biorefining
18
Comparable EBITEURm % of salesActions
• Pulp production capacity increased
and production efficiency improved.
• Steady production was achieved at the
Lappeenranta biorefinery and a
monthly production record was
reached in January.
• Cost efficiency improved.
| © UPM
UPM Energy
19
0
20
40
60
80
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Q4 15
Q1 16
0
20
40
60
80
Actions
• Strong hydro and nuclear electricity
production volumes.
• Average electricity sales price clearly
above Finnish area spot price due to
hedging and hydro optimisation.
Comparable EBITEURm % of sales
| © UPM
UPM Raflatac
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Q4 15
Q1 16
0
2
4
6
8
10
Actions
• Improved product mix and cost-efficient
growth in films and special products
was achieved through growth
investments, supported by an
enhanced customer offering.
Comparable EBITEURm % of sales
| © UPM
UPM Paper Asia
21
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Q4 15
Q4 16
0
3
6
9
12
15
Actions
• Production was ramped up successfully
at the new speciality paper machine at
the UPM Changshu mill in China, and
product qualification has met
customers’ high-quality requirements.
Comparable EBITEURm % of sales
| © UPM
UPM Paper ENA
22
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Q4 15
Q1 16
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Actions
• Challenging market conditions were
mitigated through a successful
commercial strategy and improved
cost efficiency.
• Announced closure of Madison Paper
Industries in the US.
Comparable EBITEURm % of sales
| © UPM
UPM Plywood
23
0
5
10
15
20
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
Q2 15
Q3 15
Q4 15
Q1 16
0
5
10
15
20
Actions
• Otepää mill expansion proceeded
according to schedule; first installations
already taken into use.
• Finnish birch mill competitiveness
improvement programme proceeded
according to plan.
• Production adjustments carried out in
Pellos spruce plywood mills to mitigate
negative impact of low-priced imports.
Comparable EBITEURm % of sales
| © UPM
Chemical pulp market
25
Source: PPPC World-20 statistics
Pulp inventories
Days of
supply
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
1 100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
USD/tonne
Q1 NBSK pulp price decreased 3% from Q4
Q1 BHKP pulp price decreased 5% from Q4
BHKP
NBSK
Source: FOEX Indexes Ltd.
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hardwood
inventories
Softwood
inventories
| © UPM
Price development in the Nordic and Helsinki power markets
26
Source: Reuters
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EUR/MWh
Coal SRMC Front Year Helsinki Front Year System Front Year
Finnish and Nordic electricity prices
| © UPM2727
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
Jan-
16
News SC LWC
WFC WFU
EUR/t
Europe
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
Jan-
08Ja
n-09
Jan-
10Ja
n-11
Jan-
12Ja
n-13
Jan-
14Ja
n-15
Jan-
16News SC LWC
WFC WFU
USD/t USD/t
ChinaNorth America
Sources: PPI, RISI
Graphic paper prices
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
WFC r (100% chemical pulp)
Reels (mixedchemical/mechanical pulp)
Uncoated Woodfree Reels (100%chemical pulp)
| © UPM
Demand-supply balance in European
graphic paper is visible in margins
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
28
Cash cost of a marginal producer
Price
EUR/t
Sources: PPI, RISI, Pöyry