update of indicators for climate change mitigation in greece
TRANSCRIPT
Energy Policy 39 (2011) 6495–6504
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Energy Policy
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Update of indicators for climate change mitigation in Greece
C. Dimitroulopoulou a,b,n, I. Ziomas a,c
a National Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development, Greeceb University of West Macedonia, Greecec National Technical University of Athens, Greece
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 16 September 2010
Accepted 22 July 2011Available online 27 August 2011
Keywords:
Climate change
Energy
Indicators
15/$ - see front matter & 2011 Elsevier Ltd. A
016/j.enpol.2011.07.050
esponding author at: University of West Mac
0 2106520427.
ail address: [email protected] (C. Dimitrou
a b s t r a c t
This paper analyses the factors affecting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Greece, (i.e. the drivers of
pressures on climate change), using environmental indicators related to energy, demographics and
economic growth. The analysis is based on the data of 2008 and considers types of fuel and sectors. The
Kaya identity is used to identify the relationship between drivers and pressures, using annual time
series data of National GHG emissions, population, energy consumption and gross domestic product.
The analysis shows that over the period 2000–2008, GHG emissions show a slight variation, but they
are almost stabilised, with a total increase of 1.6%. Despite the economic growth over that period, this
stabilisation may be considered as a combination of reductions in the energy intensity of GDP and the
carbon intensity of energy, which are affected by improvements in energy efficiency and introduction
of ‘‘cleaner’’ fuels, such as natural gas and renewables in the energy mixture of the country.
& 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
The climate in Greece is changing. Since the end of 1990s, thetemperature increases, especially during the summer, whereas theincrease is lower during the winter (Nastos et al., 2007; Philandraset al., 2008; NCESD, 2009). Furthermore, there is a decreasing trendin precipitation, on an annual and seasonal level, mainly during theperiod 1980–2000, with increasing trends over the next years(Akylas et al., 2005).
The increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are responsibleby 90% for the climate change on a worldwide level (IPCC, 2007a).Energy consumption–power and heat generation and consump-tion in industry, transport and households-accounts for over 80%of anthropogenic GHG emissions, both on global scale (IPCC,2007b; Quadrelli and Peterson, 2007), European (EEA, 2010a)and National scale (MEECC, 2010).
Understanding the drivers of pressures on climate change is vitalto the prediction, management and mitigation of GHG emissions ona National level. The aim of this work is to carry out a Nationalanalysis of trends in CO2 eq. emissions and their demographic,economic, and technological drivers. This is done using a series ofenvironmental indicators for ‘‘climate change’’, updated based onofficial National statistics, the energy data of 2008 provided byEurostat for Greece, as well as data submitted to UNFCCC. These
ll rights reserved.
edonia, Greece.
lopoulou).
indicators are defined by the European Environment Agency (EEA)and were proposed by the Agency during the preparation of the Stateof Environment Report SOER 2010 for Europe (EEA, 2010b), in orderto present systematically the analysis carried out by each country.Within this framework, EEA proposed for ‘‘drivers’’ of pressures,indicators related to energy, population and economic growth,whereas for ‘‘pressures’’ on climate change, the GHG emissions bygas and by sector. Although the data completeness varies in somecases, the quality has increased over the recent years, providing moreaccurate information on energy use and GHG emissions.
2. Analysis of trends using indicators
2.1. Drivers
Historically in the EU, GHG emissions, which constitute apressure on climate change, result from two sets of opposingfactors; those increasing the GHG emissions and those mitigatingthem (EEA, 2009a). Thus, GHG emissions have increased over thelast 20 years due to the burning of fossil fuels for:
�
Generation of electricity and heat by thermal plants; � Transport, with an increasing share of road transport com-pared with other modes;
� Industry, given the economic growth in manufacturingindustries, and
� Households, whose number is affected by the demographicchanges observed over the last decades.
C. Dimitroulopoulou, I. Ziomas / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 6495–65046496
On the other hand, emissions have been avoided when fossilenergy is substituted. This is observed with improvements in
energy efficiency, in particular by industrial end users and theenergy industries; fuel efficiency improvements in vehicles;better waste management and improved landfill gas recovery;decreases in emissions from agriculture and a shift from coal toless polluting fuels, particularly gas and biomass, for the produc-tion of electricity and heat.The above factors are studied using some indicators, whichhave been suggested by EEA and for which data are available forGreece, as discussed below. The first 3 indicators on total primary
energy supply, total final energy consumption and generation of
electricity examine factors that may increase the GHG emissions,given the extensive use of fossil fuels, whereas the 3 indicators onrenewable energy supply and renewable electricity consumption anddecreasing number of households examine factors that may miti-gate the GHG emissions.
2.1.1. Total primary energy supply (TPES)
This indicator is proposed by EEA, since it gives an indicationto what extent environmental pressures caused by energyproduction and consumption are likely to diminish or not. TPESrepresents the quantity of energy required to satisfy inlandconsumption in a country in order to provide economic stabilityand development (EEA, 2008a). This is the sum of the gross inlandsupply of energy from solid fuels, oil, gas and renewable sources.The indicator displays data disaggregated by fuel type, since theassociated environmental impacts are fuel-specific. The degree ofenvironmental impact depends on the relative share of differentfossil fuels and the extent to which pollution abatement measures
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1990
1000
tonn
es o
f oil
equi
vale
nts
Years
Oil Gas Coal and lignite Renewables
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Fig. 1. Total primary energy supply by fuel, 1990–2008.
Table 1Total primary energy supply by fuel (shares, %; source EUROSTAT (NISE, 2010)).
Fuel type 1990 1991 1992 199
Coal and lignite 36.1 34.2 35.3
Oil 58.0 59.5 58.8
Gas 0.6 0.6 0.5
Renewables 4.9 5.5 5.0
Industrial waste 0.0 0.0 0.2
Electricity trade 0.3 0.2 0.2
Total primary energy supply (1000 toe) 22,338 22,512 23,174 22,
Fuel type 2000 2001 2002 200
Coal and lignite 32.0 32.0 31.3
Oil 56.7 56.8 57.1
Gas 6.0 5.8 6.0
Renewables 5.0 4.5 4.7
Industrial waste 0.2 0.1 0.1
Electricity trade 0.0 0.7 0.8
Total primary energy supply (1000 toe) 28,217 29,061 29,856 30,
are used. Furthermore, TPES by renewables is a measure of thecontribution from technologies that are, in general, more envir-onment friendly, as they produce no (or very little) net CO2 andusually significantly lower levels of other pollutants.
In Greece, TPES increased by 43% between 1900 and 2008(Fig. 1, Table 1) (NISE, 2010). The structure of TPES shows adominance of fossil fuel (82% in 2008), which include oil, coal andlignite. Over the same period, the share of fossil fuels, decreasedby 9% for coal and lignite, by 2% for oil. However, fossil fuelconsumption increased in absolute terms by 25%. The use of fossilfuels has considerable impact on the environment and is the maincause of greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, changes in theenergy mix have brought environmental benefits.
Oil accounted for around 56% of primary energy supply in2008 and continues to be the major fuel in the transport sector,although its share has been reduced due to the decline in the useof oil in other sectors, such as for power generation.
Renewable energy increased in absolute terms. Renewables,together with natural gas, have been the growing energy sourcesbetween 1990 and 2008, and their contribution to TPES was 16%in 2008.
2.1.2. Total final energy consumption (TFC)
The type and magnitude of energy-related pressures on theenvironment (e.g. GHG emissions, air pollution) depends not onlyon the energy sources but also on the energy consumption. TFC isthe sum of final energy consumption from all sectors. These aredisaggregated to cover industry (except the ‘‘energy sector’’, i.e.electricity and power plants and refineries), transport (rail, road,domestic air transport and inland navigation), households (all useof electricity and use of fuels used for space and water heating),services (consumption of public administration and private ser-vices) and agriculture (activities that are related to heating needs;for instance, in greenhouses and to agricultural machinery)(EEA, 2008b). This indicator is proposed by EEA since it providesa broad indication of progress in reducing final energy consump-tion and associated environmental impacts by the different end-use sectors. Energy-related pressures on the environment can bereduced using less energy. Thus, this indicator is used to monitorprogress in implementation of energy efficiency and energyconservation policies.
However, between 1990 and 2008, TFC in Greece increased byþ46% (Fig. 2, Table 2) (NISE, 2010).
3 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
35.0 35.7 36.2 35.0 34.3 33.9 31.7
59.0 58.6 57.8 58.8 58.9 57.8 58.2
0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 2.7 4.5
5.2 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.2 4.9 5.3
0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1
746 23,709 24,228 25,476 25,688 26,987 26,867
3 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
29.4 29.7 28.2 26.6 32.4 26.7
58.1 57.3 56.9 57.8 51.5 55.6
6.7 7.2 8.6 8.7 10.0 11.0
5.1 5.1 5.1 5.7 5.0 5.2
0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.5
307 30,772 31,354 31,509 33,488 31,938
C. Dimitroulopoulou, I. Ziomas / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 6495–6504 6497
Transport represents the highest share of TFC Final consump-tion (FC) by transport increased by 46%, between 1990 and 2008,although the transport share remained almost the same (Table 2).
Household FC increased by 68% during the reporting period, asa result of higher standards of living and comfort levels and theincreased ownership of domestic appliances. In 2008, householdshare increased by 3% compared to 1990 value.
The fastest growing sector is services, with the 2008 TFC being3 times higher than in 1990. The growing economic role of thetertiary sector, as well as the diffusion of air-conditioningsystems, the inadequate energy performance of buildings andappliances and discounts on energy prices have contributed toboost consumption by services and households.
TFC by industry declined during 1990–1994 by 5% and from2001 to 2006 by 7%. This indicates the decreasing role of energy-intensive industry in the Greek economy as well as gains inenergy efficiency from various industrial activities. However, thefinal energy consumption by this sector was overall increased by7% between 1990 and 2008, whereas its share in 2008 decreasedby 7% since 1990. Finally, in 2008, agriculture FC increased by 6%since 1990, whereas its share decreased by 2%.
To obtain the per capita final energy consumption, the TFC isdivided by population in the same year. Thus, in 2008, the percapita final energy consumption was 1.9 toe/person and hasincreased by 0.5 toe/person since 1990.
2.1.3. Generation of electricity
Electricity generation from fossil fuels (coal, lignite and oil)continues to dominate total gross electricity production in Greece(68% in 2008), although its share decreased by 26% between 1990
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1990
1000
tonn
es o
f oil
equi
vale
nt
Years
Industry Transport Agriculture Household Services
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Fig. 2. Final energy consumption by sector, 1990–2008.
Table 2Total final energy consumption by sector (shares, %; source EUROSTAT (NISE, 2010)).
Sectors 1990 1991
Industry 27.1 25.6
Transport 40.0 40.7
Agriculture 7.1 7.5
Households 2.1 21.3
Services 4.8 5.0
Final energy consumption (excluding non-energyconsumption) (1000 toe)
14,541 14,721
Sectors 2000 2001
Industry 23.9 23.5
Transport 38.9 38.5
Agriculture 6.0 5.8
Households 24.2 24.5
Services 7.1 7.7
Final energy consumption (excluding non-energyconsumption) (1000 toe)
18,560 19,162
and 2008 (Fig. 3, Table 3). The absolute growth of electricityproduction from solid fuels during the above period was8,186 GWh. Given the environmental concerns and the stricterenvironmental legislation, the use of natural gas for new powerplants started increasing between 1997 and 2008. The share of thetotal electricity produced from natural gas increased by 18% over theexamined period, whereas the absolute growth was 12,084 GWh.
The total electricity produced from renewable sourcesincreased by 229% between 1990 and 2008 and the absolutegrowth was 4580 GWh. Despite this substantial growth, mucheffort is still required to meet the EU target of a 20% share ofrenewable electricity in final electricity consumption by 2020.
Electricity generation and mainly the transformation losses(i.e. output from conventional thermal power stations, publicthermal power stations and autoproducer thermal power sta-tions) are responsible for large differences between TPES and TFC.
2.1.4. Renewable primary energy supply (RPES)
RPES measures the contribution of renewable energy sources(RES) to TPES and is expressed as a percentage of the former to thelatter (EEA, 2008d). RES are non-fossil energy sources: biomass,hydropower, wind energy, geothermal energy and solar energy. Thisindicator is selected since the share of energy supply from renew-ables provides a broad indication of progress towards reducing theenvironmental impact of energy sources, although its overall impacthas to be seen within the context of growth in energy use, the totalfuel mix and potential impacts on biodiversity. The shares of RES inRPES are given in Fig. 4 whereas their shares in TPES in Table 4.
Generally, the shares of RES to TPES remained relativelyconstant, from 4.9% in 1990 to 5.2% in 2008. This is stillsubstantially lower than the indicative target set in the White
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
25.6 24.5 24.4 26.0 25.5 25.2 24.3 22.9
41.1 42.4 42.0 40.7 38.9 38.9 40.1 41.0
7.0 7.0 7.0 6.4 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9
21.1 20.7 20.9 21.0 23.4 23.4 23.0 23.3
5.1 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.9
14,983 15,234 15,372 15,838 16,903 17,307 18,202 18,202
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
22.9 21.0 20.0 19.9 19.6 20.9 20.0
38.2 38.1 39.3 38.9 39.6 40.1 40.2
5.9 6.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.1
25.1 26.7 26.5 26.4 25.6 24.3 24.3
7.9 8.1 8.8 9.3 9.7 9.7 10.5
19,546 20,530 20,298 20,799 21,454 21,959 21,195
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1990
GW
h
Coal and lignite Oil Natural gas Renewables Other power stations
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Fig. 3. Gross electricity production by fuel, 1990–2008.
Table 3Total gross electricity generation by fuel (shares, %; EUROSTAT, 2010).
Sectors 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Coal and lignite 71.9 66.2 71.1 72.4 72.8 69.1 68.8 70.4 70.0 64.9
Oil 22.1 24.7 21.9 20.4 19.7 21.3 20.1 19.1 17.4 16.4
Natural gas 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 3.7 7.8
Renewables 5.7 8.9 6.4 6.7 7.1 9.2 10.7 9.5 8.5 10.5
Other power stations 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4
Total gross electricity generation (GWh) 35,002 35,815 37,410 38,395 40,623 41,551 42,555 43,507 46,332 49,860
Sectors 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Coal and lignite 63.7 66.0 63.3 60.1 59.6 59.2 53.1 54.6 52.3
Oil 16.5 15.8 15.8 14.9 14.1 15.3 15.8 15.2 15.7
Natural gas 11.0 11.4 12.9 13.7 15.2 13.6 17.5 21.7 21.6
Renewables 8.5 6.6 7.8 11.0 10.9 11.7 13.6 8.5 10.3
Other power stations 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total gross electricity generation (GWh) 53,843 53,704 54,608 58,471 59,346 60,020 60,789 63,497 63,749
Solar5.1%
Geo0.3%
Biomass80.9%
Wind0.0%
Hydro13.8%
Solar10.6% Geo
1.0%
Biomass59.3%
Wind11.7%
Hydro17.3%
Fig. 4. Shares of renewable energies in renewable primary energy supply, 1990
and 2008.
C. Dimitroulopoulou, I. Ziomas / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 6495–65046498
Paper on renewable energy (COM(97) 599 final), according towhich 12% of TPES in the EU should derive from RES by 2010.
Biomass is the largest renewable energy source in Greece (Fig. 4).The growth of renewable sources due to biomass was 9%, during theperiod 1990–2008. It is mainly used to produce electricity and heatfor agriculture, biofuels for transport, while its contribution issignificant in the residential sector, especially in rural areas.
Supply from hydropower increased by about 88% over thereporting period. There are environmental concerns about theenergy supply from hydropower. The Water Framework Directive(2000/60/EC) gives emphasis on the protection of the environ-ment, since hydropower has economic and environmental advan-tages compared to other energy sources. Thus, any adverseenvironmental impacts should be analysed to ensure that thelocal society is informed and supports the new development.
Wind energy grew from 0 to 2245 GWh between 1990 and2008 and since 2004 there has been an increase of 100%. At theend of 2006, there were established about 1200 wind turbines,with total power of 878 MW. Most wind turbines are located incentral and southern Evia, in Thrace, Crete, Peloponnese and theislands of Northern and Southern Aegean. 70 new facilities are tobe completed, corresponding to power of 770 MW (YPAN, 2010).However, in 2008, output still accounts for a small proportion.
Regarding geothermal energy, there is no power plant inGreece, despite its rich geothermal resources. For the islands ofMilos and Nisyros, the resources cover only local heat needs anddo not include potential for power generation.
Between 1990 and 2008, solar energy grew by around a factorof 3 and the last year (2007–2008), it grew by almost 9%. Solarthermal energy developments benefited greatly from proactivegovernment policy coupled with subsidy schemes and commu-nication strategies that emphasised the benefits of solar thermal.
2.1.5. Renewable electricity consumption
The renewable electricity directive (2001/77/EC) definesrenewable electricity as the share of electricity produced fromRES in the National electricity consumption. The electricitygenerated from pumping in hydropower plants is included intotal electricity consumption but it is not included as a renewablesource of energy. Biomass electricity comprises of electricitygenerated from wood/wood wastes and other solid wastes ofrenewable nature (straw, black liquor) burning, municipal solidwaste incineration (EEA, 2008e).
The average annual growth rate of gross electricity productionfrom RES was 9% over the period 1990–2007 (EC, 2010). This ismuch faster than the growth in overall electricity consumption,with an average annual rate of 5% over the same period. Hydro-power dominates renewable electricity production in Greece witha share of 56.4% in 2007. This compares with 39.6% from wind,4.0% from biomass and 0.02% from solar (Fig. 5).
The share of renewable electricity in gross electricity consump-tion varied a lot during the reporting period (between 5% and 12.1%)(Fig. 5). The share of hydropower in gross electricity consumptionwas 3.8%, of wind 2.7% and of biomass 0.3% in 2007. The share oflarge hydro in gross electricity consumption varies with the years(e.g. between 2006 and 2007), as a result of variation in rainfall,whereas strong growth can be observed for wind and biomass.
Despite the introduction of policies promoting the develop-ment of renewable energy in Greece, substantial additionalproduction will be required to meet the renewable electricityindicative target of 20% by 2010 set in Directive 2001/77/EC.While large hydropower accounts for almost two-thirds of renew-able electricity production, it is unlikely to increase substantiallyin the future due to environmental concerns. Therefore, otherrenewable energy sources, such as wind, biomass, solar andsmall-scale hydropower have to grow substantially.
2.1.6. Population–households
According to the 2001 population census, the population ofGreece increases by the rates given in Table 5. However, thenumber of individuals per household is estimated to decreaseannually, reflecting ageing of population and new living arrange-ments (Table 6) (MEPPPW, 2009). The acceptance of energyconservation actions in households depends on the consumers’economic and socio demographic characteristics. Sardianou (2007),based on empirical analysis of the energy-saver consumer profileconcluded that consumers with higher status and income andhouse ownership are more likely to improve energy conservation.The number of rooms and the size of dwellings did not explain
02468
101214161820
1990
Shar
es (%
)
Hydropower Wind Biomass Solar
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Fig. 5. Shares of renewable energy in gross electricity consumption, 1990–2007.
Table 5Average annual population rate of increase (MEPPPW, 2009).
Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Rate of increase (%) 0.576 0.326 0.334 0.214 0.065
Table 6Average annual household size rates of change (MEPPPW, 2009).
Period 2000–2005 2005–2010 2010–2015
Rate of decrease (%) �0.43 �0.29 �0.37
Table 4Renewable primary energy supply (shares, %; source EUROSTAT (NISE, 2010)).
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Share of renewable primary energyconsumption
4.9 5.5 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.2 4.9 5.3
Share of solar energy 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Share of geothermal 0.013 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Share of biomass 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4
Share of wind energy 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.05
Share of hydropower 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.5
Total primary energy supply (1000 toe) 22,338 22,512 23,174 22,746 23,709 24,228 25,476 25,688 26,987 26,867
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Share of renewable primary energyconsumption
5.0 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.7 5.0 5.2
Share of solar energy 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5
Share of geothermal 0.007 0.01 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.03 0.04 0.05
Share of biomass 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.1
Share of wind energy 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6
Share of hydropower 1.1 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.9
Total primary energy supply (1000 toe) 28,217 29,061 29,856 30,307 30,772 31,354 31,509 33,488 31,938
C. Dimitroulopoulou, I. Ziomas / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 6495–6504 6499
differences regarding energy conserving actions. Sex, educationaland marital status cannot be used to predict energy conservingbehaviour. Elderly than younger tend to conserve energy and mostimportantly, well informed consumers of energy issues can beidentified as energy savers.
2.2. Pressures
2.2.1. GHG emissions
To halt climate change, policies must be in place and imple-mented that will aim at reducing significantly the GHG emissions.This indicator (EEA, 2009b) presents total trends of greenhouse gas
emissions and can be used to assess progress in reducing GHGemissions and relieve consequently the pressure on climate change.
The original data, which is used to produce the statisticspresented here, derived from the official submission of Greeceto UNFCCC (MEECC, 2010; data not shown). Fig. 6 presents theemission trends over the period 1990–2008.
Base year GHG emissions for Greece (1990 for CO2, CH4 andN2O–1995 for F-gases) are 105.44 Mt CO2 eq. Given that LULUCF
was a net sink of GHG emissions in 1990 (and for the rest of thereporting period) the relevant emissions/removals are not con-sidered in estimating base year emissions for Greece.
In 2008, GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) were 126.89 MtCO2 eq., showing an increase of 20.3% compared to base yearemissions and of 22.8% compared to 1990 levels. This increasetestifies that Greece is in compliance with the þ25% KyotoProtocol target, classifying at the same time Greece among theseven Member States (Germany, United Kingdom, France,Belgium, Finland, Greece and Sweden) that will have reached thereduction or limitation level in 2009 which was agreed for EU-15Member States in accordance with Article 4 of the Kyoto Protocol(without taking into account LULUCF activities or flexible mechan-isms). Despite this compliance, the Greek Government continuousits efforts by setting strategies and programme plans and givingemphasis on achieving further GHG emission reductions.
GHG emissions have steadily increased in Greece since theearly 1990s, mainly driven by economic development (living
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990
kt C
O2
eq
Inde
x 19
90=1
00
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Fig. 6. GHG emission trends in Greece (excluding LULUCF), 1990–2008.
Industrialprocesses
10%Solvents
0.3%Agriculture
11%
Waste4%
Transport14%
Energy excluding transport
61%
Industrialprocesses
9%Solvents
0%
Agriculture7%
Waste2%
Transport18%Energy excluding
transport64%
Fig. 7. Shares of GHG emissions by sector (excluding LULUCF).
Table 7Shares of GHG emissions by sector in 2008 and their changes 1990–2008.
Shares of GHG emissions2008%
Changes 1990–2008%
Energy (includingtransport)
82.0 34.1
Transport 17.9 53.2
Energy (excludingtransport)
64.1 29.6
Industrial processes 8.4 10.7
Solvents 0.2 1.9
Agriculture 7.0 �21.4
Waste 2.4 �33.2
Total 100.0 22.8
CO280.3%
CH48.7%
N2O9.9%
HFC0.9%
PFC0.2% SF6
0.0%
1990
CO286.5%
CH46.2%
N2O5.6%
HFC1.6% PFC
0.1%SF60.0%
2008
Fig. 8. Share of GHG emissions by gas (excluding LULUCF).
Table 8Shares of GHG emissions by gas in 2008 and their changes. (1990–2008 for CO2,
N2O and CH4 and 1995–2008 for F-gases).
Shares of GHG emissions 2008% Changes %
CO2 86.5 32.4
N2O 5.6 �30.4
CH4 6.2 �12.6
F-gases 1.7 �35.5
C. Dimitroulopoulou, I. Ziomas / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 6495–65046500
standards improvement, increased transport activity and energydemand, and important growth of the services sector). Emissionshave recently started stabilising, due to the introduction ofnatural gas in the energy system and the use of hydropower.
The shares of GHG emissions by sector are given in Fig. 7a andb (for 1990 and 2008, respectively), whereas their changes inTable 7. The shares of GHG emissions by gas are given in Fig. 8aand b, whereas their changes in Table 8.
2.3. Relationship between drivers and pressures
In order to identify the relationship between the National GHGemissions and their demographic, economic and technological
drivers, the Kaya identity (Nakicenovic et al., 2000; Nakicenovic,2004) is used together with the annual time series on NationalCO2 eq. emissions, population, energy consumption, and grossdomestic product (GDP). Understanding the magnitudes andpatterns of the factors influencing global CO2 emissions can assistat their management and mitigation.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000
Ener
gy in
tens
ity, I
ndex
200
0=10
0
Years
Total primary energy supply Total energy intensity Real GDP
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Fig. 9. Energy intensity in Greece, 2000–2008.
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
2000
F P g=G/P e=E/G f=F/E
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Fig. 10. Factors in Kaya identity, normalised to 1 in year 2000.
C. Dimitroulopoulou, I. Ziomas / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 6495–6504 6501
The Kaya identity expresses the CO2 eq. emissions as a productof four driving factors (Raupach et al., 2007):
F ¼ PðG=PÞðE=GÞðF=EÞ ¼ Pgef ð1Þ
where F is CO2 eq. emissions, P is the population, G is GDP, E isprimary energy consumption; g¼G/P is the per capita GDP, e¼E/Gis the energy intensity of GDP and f¼F/E is the carbon intensity ofenergy.
Energy intensity (e¼E/G) is a measure of energy consumptionin relation to economic activity. It is the ratio between TPES andgross domestic product (GDP) for a calendar year (EEA, 2008c). Thetime series of GDP is taken in constant prices 2000 to avoid theimpact of the inflation. GDP data prior to 2000 are not available, asthey are subject to review. Giving emphasis on trends, energyintensity is presented as an index (base year index 2000¼100).
As discussed before, TPES in Greece grew by 13% over theperiod 2000–2008, at an average annual rate of 2%. GDP inconstant prices 2000 grew by 36% over the same period, at anaverage annual rate of 4%. As a result, energy intensity in Greecefell by 17% over the period 2000–2008, at an average annual rateof �2% showing a relative decoupling of economic growth fromenergy use (Fig. 9). The average Greek citizen uses 2.8 tones of oilequivalent per year (data not shown).
The reduction of energy intensity has been influenced both byimprovements in energy efficiency and structural changes withinthe economy. The main reasons behind the decoupling ofeconomic growth from energy use is the implementation of
energy efficiency measures in power sector, industries andresidential/commercial sectors, along with the faster growth ofless energy intensity economic sectors, such as services, com-pared to the high intensity ones, such as industry (IEA, 2006).
To diagnose drivers of trends in CO2 eq. emissions, Fig. 10illustrates the time series for 2000–2008 of the Kaya factors F, P, g,e, f. The analysis is carried out for the above period, to coincidewith the time series of GDP. All quantities are normalised to 1 inthe year 2000, to show the relative contributions of changes inKaya factors to the changes in emissions. Table 9 includes the2000–2008 values without normalisation.
Fig. 10 shows that after 2000, the factor F (emissions) shows aslight variation, but it is almost stabilised, with an increase rate of1.6% between 2000 and 2008. Despite the clear increase of thefactor g¼G/P (þ32%) that shows the economic growth over thatperiod, this stabilisation may be consider as a combination ofreductions in the factors e (energy intensity of GDP) by 17% and f
(carbon intensity of energy) by 10%. As discussed before, these areaffected by improvements in energy efficiency (factor e) andintroduction of ‘‘cleaner’’ fuels, such as natural gas and renew-ables in the energy mixture of the country (factor f).
3. Discussion and conclusions
GHG emissions, which constitute a pressure on climatechange, result over the last 20 years from two sets of opposing
Ta
ble
9V
alu
es
of
the
Ka
ya
fact
ors
,2
00
0–
20
08
.
Ka
ya
fact
ors
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
F(k
tC
O2
eq
.)1
24
,85
41
26
,18
31
25
,86
11
29
,55
61
29
,84
31
32
,82
81
28
,69
31
31
,87
61
26
,88
8
P(i
nh
ab
ita
nts
)1
0,9
17
,48
01
0,9
49
,96
01
0,9
87
,54
01
1,0
19
,04
01
1,0
50
,62
01
1,1
03
,92
01
1,1
48
,46
01
1,1
92
,85
01
1,2
21
,53
0
g¼
G/P
(mil
lio
nE
uro
sp
er
cap
ita
)0
.01
20
.01
30
.01
30
.01
40
.01
50
.01
50
.01
60
.01
60
.01
7
e¼
E/G
(to
ep
er
mil
lio
nE
uro
s)2
07
.12
04
.72
03
.31
94
.81
89
.01
88
.41
81
.11
84
.21
72
.2
f¼F/
E(k
tC
O2
eq
.p
er
toe
)4
.42
4.3
44
.22
4.2
74
.22
4.2
44
.08
3.9
43
.97
C. Dimitroulopoulou, I. Ziomas / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 6495–65046502
factors; those increasing the GHG emissions and those helpingtheir mitigation. Thus, GHG emissions have mainly increased dueto the use of fossil fuels for electricity generation, transport,industry and households.
On the other hand, emissions have been avoided when fossilenergy is substituted. This is observed with improvements inenergy efficiency, in particular by industrial end users and theenergy industries; fuel efficiency improvements in vehicles;better waste management and improved landfill gas recovery;decreases in emissions from agriculture and a shift from coal toless polluting fuels, particularly gas and biomass, for the produc-tion of electricity and heat.
The above factors are studied using some indicators, whichhave been suggested by EEA and for which data are available forGreece. The data used in the analysis derive from official Nationalstatistics, EUROSTAT data, as well as from data prepared accord-ing to IPCC and UNFCCC guidelines and submitted to UNFCCC.Although the data completeness varies in some cases, the qualityhas increased over the recent years, providing more accurateinformation on energy use and GHG emissions.
The key messages from the analysis may be summarised asfollows:
a.
Drivers increasing GHG emissions�
Between 1990 and 2008, the total primary energy supply(TPES) increased by 43%. Fossil fuels continue to dominateTPES (82% in 2008), but environmental pressures have beenreduced, partly due to a significant switch from coal andlignite to relatively cleaner natural gas. � During the period 1990–2008, total final energy consumption(TFC) increased by 46%. Transport FC represents the highestshare (40.2% in 2008). The fastest growing sector, but with alow share, is services.
� Electricity generation from fossil fuels (coal, lignite and oil)continues to dominate total gross electricity production inGreece (68% in 2008), although its share decreased by 26%between 1990 and 2008.
b.
Drivers mitigating GHG emissions�
The contribution of renewable energy sources (RES) to TPESremained relatively constant, from 4.9% in 1990 to 5.2% in 2008.In 2008, biomass was the largest renewable energy source inGreece (59.3%), followed by hydropower (17.3%), wind energy(11.7%), solar energy (10.6%) and geothermal energy (1.0%). � The share of renewable electricity in gross electricity consump-tion varies between 5% and 12.1% in the period 1990–2007.Hydropower dominates renewable electricity production inGreece, with a share of 56.4% in 2007, followed by 39.6% fromwind, 4.0% from biomass and 0.02% from solar energy.
� From 1991 to 2001, the Greek population increased with anaverage annual population growth rate of 0.66% and isestimated to reduce from 0.326% in 2005 to 0.065% in 2020.Despite this increase, the number of individuals per householdis estimated to decrease annually by 0.3–0.4%, reflectingageing of population and new living arrangements.
c.
Pressures on climate change�
In 2008, GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) were 126.89 MtCO2 eq., showing an increase of 20.3% compared to base yearemissions and of 22.8% compared to 1990 levels. This increasetestifies that Greece is in compliance with the þ25% KyotoProtocol target. Despite this compliance, the Greek Govern-ment continuous its efforts by setting strategies and givingemphasis on achieving further GHG emission reductions. � GHG emissions have steadily increased in Greece since theearly 1990s, mainly driven by economic development (livingstandards improvement, increased transport activity andenergy demand, and important growth of the services sector).
C. Dimitroulopoulou, I. Ziomas / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 6495–6504 6503
Emissions have recently started stabilising, due to the intro-duction of natural gas in the energy system and the use ofhydropower.
d.
Relationship between drivers and pressures�
The analysis of the relationship between the National GHGemissions and their demographic, economic, and technologicaldrivers shows that after 2000, GHG emissions are almoststabilised, with an increase rate of 1.6% between 2000 and2008. Despite the clear increase of the per capita GDP (þ32%)that shows the economic growth over that period, this stabi-lisation may be considered as a combination of reductions inthe energy intensity of GDP by 17% and carbon intensity ofenergy by 10%. These are affected by improvements in energyefficiency and introduction of ‘‘cleaner’’ fuels as natural gasand renewables in the energy mixture of the country.The indicators discussed in this paper reflect the energy choicesmade by the Greek Government to supply the economic activities ofthe country. Greece’s climate change policy, strategy andprogramme plans are set out in the ‘‘National Climate ChangeProgramme’’. The 1st National Programme was adopted in 1995,the 2nd in 2002 and revised in 2007. All three iterations placed heavyemphasis on achieving GHG emission reductions commitmentsby: changing the fuel mix to include a higher percentage of naturalgas and renewable energy sources; improving energy efficiency andconservation in all sectors; effecting structural changes in agricultureand transportation; reducing emissions in waste management; and(to serve longer-range needs) expanding R&D efforts.
Furthermore, the new Ministry for the Environment, Energy andClimate Change (MEECC) set as a priority to achieve the targets setby Directives 2009/28/EC and 2009/29/EC, as follows: (a) 20%reduction in the overall greenhouse gas emissions of the Communitybelow 1990 levels by 2020, according to EU Directive 2009/29/EC;(b) a 20% share of energy from renewable sources in the Commu-nity’s gross final consumption of energy in 2020, according toDirective 2009/28/EC and (c) 20% reduction in primary energy.Especially for Greece, the target for the non-emission-trading green-house gas emissions is a 4% reduction compared to 2005 levels and18% penetration of renewables in gross final consumption.
The recent adoption of Law L3851/2010 sets National targets for2020 regarding the share of RES in final energy consumption,electricity generation and contribution in heating, cooling and trans-port, as follows: (a) Contribution of the energy produced from RES tothe gross final energy consumption by a share of 20%; (b) Contribu-tion of the electrical energy produced by RES to the gross electricalenergy consumption to a share of at least 40%; (c) Contribution of theenergy produced by RES to the final energy consumption for heatingand cooling to a share of at least 20% and (d) Contribution of theelectrical energy produced by RES to the gross electricity energyconsumption in transportation to a share of at least 10%. (YPEKA,2010a).
Meeting the above targets set by 2020 calls for the elaborationof policies and measures, which aim at the simultaneous fulfill-ment of the above ‘‘20–20–20’’ obligations and the acceleration ofthe Greek economy through ‘‘green’’ development and enhancedcompetitiveness of the private sector. According to the NationalRenewable Energy Action Plan (YPEKA, 2010b), the target of a 20%share of renewable energy in the gross final energy consumptionin 2020 may be achieved through the combination of measuresfor energy efficiency as well as for the enhanced penetration ofRES technologies in electricity production, heat supply andtransport. A major role in this respect will be played by thestreamlining of the existing framework of licensing regulationsand the rationalisation of the terms and conditions of landmanagement.
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