decarbonisation indicators - world resources institute indicators technical workshop on intended...

Decarbonisation indicators Technical Workshop on Intended Nationally Determined Mitigation Contributions September 18-19, 2014 Washington DC Fabio Sferra Markus Hagemann

Overview

•  Aim of analysis •  General Approach •  Macro-level indicators •  Sector-level indicators

10/17/14 www.climateactiontracker.org 2

Aim

•  Unpack the drivers behind the trends in emissions developments for the 30 largest emi8ers

•  Provide more easily accessible indicators for prac;;oners, improving the understanding of relevant stakeholders at the na;onal and sectoral level

•  Support –  Countries in priori;zing and tailoring ac;vi;es –  Assessment of na;onal efforts –  Comparison / benchmarking between country efforts


General approach

•  Collect data on selected metrics for the highest priority countries –  Macro-level indicators for decarbonisation drivers - economy wide

indicators describing decarbonisation trends for CAT countries –  Sector-level indicators for decarbonisation drivers - sector wide

indicators describing decarbonisation trends for different sectors in CAT countries

•  Decomposition of historic national emission trends (Kaya approach) •  Evaluate how the current situation in the countries compares to best

practice in implementation •  Evaluate how the indicators compare to 2°C global and national

goals


MACROLEVEL INDICATORS Climate Action Tracker decarbonisation module


Kaya Identity

•  Useful to identify main drivers of GHG emissions –  Historical perspective –  Future perspective


KAYA Identity: historical perspective

7 17 October 2014

𝐺𝐻𝐺𝑒𝑚𝑖=𝑃𝑜𝑝 𝐺𝐷𝑃/𝑃𝑜𝑝  𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 /𝐺𝐷𝑃  𝐺𝐻𝐺𝑒𝑚𝑖/𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 

KAYA Identity: Historical perspective

8 17 October 2014

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

-‐40 -‐20 0 20 40 60 80

Energy In

tensity

Carbon Intensity

Carbon vs Energy Intensity

Historical -‐ 1971-‐2010

Linear (Historical -‐ 1971-‐2010)

1971

2010

KAYA Identity: Future perspective

9 17 October 2014

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

-‐40 -‐20 0 20 40 60 80

Energy In

tensity

Carbon Intensity

Carbon vs Energy Intensity 2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Historical -‐ 1971-‐2010

Linear (Historical -‐ 1971-‐2010)

2C pathway

SECTORAL INDICATORS Climate Action Tracker decarbonisation module


Sectoral indicators - Approach

•  Identify relevant sectoral indicators –  Allowing to evaluate whether a country is on the right track –  Providing a transparent way of illustrating emission developments

•  Develop best practice benchmarks for each indicator –  Identify feasible benchmarks for different points in the future –  Based on best practice development

•  Develop 2 degree compatible benchmarks –  Ensure that the benchmarks are in line with 2 degree pathway

•  Compare to situation in each country –  Current situation, current policy development and pledge

•  à building on previous CAT country work on 'best practice policy package' in Mexico and Australia


Possible sectoral indicators

Sector Possible indicators Descrip8on

Energy supply tCO2e/kWh annual investments in renewables

For en;re energy supply

Demand -‐ Industry tCO2e/tproduct Per industry types (e.g. Chemical industry, pulp and paper industry)

Buildings tCO2e/m² tCO2e/cap tCO2e/#Households

For hea;ng and cooling, appliances, cooking and hot water

Transport tCO2e/km tCO2e/pkm or tCO2e/tkm

For passenger and freight transport: rail, road mari;me or avia;on


Displaying indicators


Indi

cato

r e.g

. CO

2/kW

h

2010 2050

Pledge

Current policy

Required for 2°C

Global average

Country intensity

BAT

Example chemical industry


Source: Saygin, D., Patel, M.K., Worrell, E., Tam, C., Gielen, D.J., 2011. Potential of best practice technology to improve energy efficiency in the global chemical and petrochemical sector. Energy 36, 5779–5790. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2011.05.019

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35G

J/ t

onne

of

outp

ut

Steam cracking* Ammonia** Mthanol***

Chlorine**** Soda ash*****

Example chemical industry cont.


Source: Saygin, D., Patel, M.K., Worrell, E., Tam, C., Gielen, D.J., 2011. Potential of best practice technology to improve energy efficiency in the global chemical and petrochemical sector. Energy 36, 5779–5790. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2011.05.019

01000200030004000500060007000

Energy use chemical industry

Reported Energy Use (PJ/a)*

Best Practice Technology energy use (bottom-up approach)

Example building sector

16 17 October 2014

•  Electricity consump;on can be decomposed by using the following equa;on (Cabeza et al. 2013):

Sum of overall appliances

Number of households

Number of appliances type ‘a’ per household

Example building sector cont.

17 17 October 2014

•  Thermal energy demand: –  Residen;al buildings energy

–  Commericial buildings energy Number of households

Number of persons

Floor area (squared meters)

1) Decarbonization Dashboard - Mock-up for pilot phase Mexico

PRELIMINARY"

On track?

Drivers

Drivers

Drivers

Over-arching

Transport

Power

23%

17%

Metric

▪  Population ▪  GDP

Top-line carbon intensity & emissions

▪  Price of fuel (gasoline)

▪  Carbon intensity (road transport)

▪  Mean efficiency of ICE light duty vehicles sold ▪  Share of >2nd generation biofuels in fuel mix (% in

gasoline, diesel, etc.; across road, rail, air) ▪  Penetration rate of EVs (# vehicles in total fleet, by fleet

category)


▪  Modal split in freight and passenger transport

▪  Fraction of RES in generation mix (% of gross generation) ▪  Fraction of coal, oil and natural gas in generation mix ▪  Fraction of nuclear in generation mix ▪  RES capacity planned/approved/under construction

▪  Split distributed vs. centralized generation


▪  Estimated cost/MWh from new build capacity: Onshore wind / Offshore wind / Solar PV / Geothermal

Current value

118.4 mn 1033 USD bn 0.97 USD/L

423 gCO2e/km

6.45 L/100 km N/A

LDVs: 0 %; MDVs: 0% N/A

18 %

N/A 85 / 101 / 280 / 52 USD/MWh

Best-in-class Change y-o-y

+1.1% +3.8% +18%

-1.6%

-2.4% N/A

+5%

N/A

Nat’l goal 2o Latest update

▪  Carbon intensity of economy (emissions per unit GDP) 0.78 kgCO2e/USD -3.4% 2010 ▪  Emissions per capita 6.55 tCO2e/capita -0.5% 2010 ▪  Total emissions 748 MtCO2e +1.4% 2010

2013 2012 2013

▪  Emissions per capita 1.46 tCO2e/cap -1.2% 2010 ▪  Total emissions from transport sector 166.4 MtCO2e +0.7% 2010

2010

2013 N/A

2012

N/A

▪  Carbon intensity of power generation 480 kgCO2e//MWh -1.8% 2010 ▪  Total emissions from power sector 115.5 MtCO2e +1.3% 2010

2010

2013

N/A 2010

Sector share of"2010 emissions"4%

79 % 3 %

2010 2010

21 / 8.5 / 2 GW 2013 ▪  Nuclear capacity planned/approved/under construction 2.5 / 0 / 0 GW

N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

Additional metrics for other sectors, selection criteria for metrics, and scope of pilot phase project are in the Annex

BACKUP SLIDES Climate Action Tracker Decarbonisation Module


Carbon Transparency Index

Pledges OutcomePolicies

GHG

OutcomeMetrics

DriverMetrics

Excel tool by McKinsey

Dashboard mock-up (2/3) Sector share of"2010 emissions"4%

Agricul-ture

Oil&Gas

Industry

Forestry

14%

15%

13%

9%

Drivers

Drivers

Drivers

Drivers





▪  Emissions per Ha agricultural production 1.69 tCO2e/Ha +0.7% 2010 ▪  Total emissions from agriculture (incl. energy) 100 MtCO2e 2010

▪  Fraction of managed manure facilities with biodigester N/A N/A N/A ▪  Efficiency of nutrient use (crop yield/N fertilizer) 542.6 kg/kg +0.3% 2010

▪  Emissions per BOE extracted, distributed and processed

41 kgCO2e/boe N/A 2010 ▪  Total emissions from O&G sector 124 MtCO2e 2010

▪  % of gas produced flared 2% -1.8 p.p 2012 ▪  Methane leakage rates in gas processing & distribution

(for mid- and downstream, same indicators as industry) N/A N/A N/A

▪  Share of conventional/unconventional production N/A N/A N/A

▪  Emissions per unit GDP 0.52 kgCO2e/USD -0.5% 2010 ▪  Total emissions from industry sector 99 MtCO2e +2.8% 2010

▪  % of natural gas/biogas/fuel oil for heat generation N/A N/A N/A ▪  % of heat generated in co-generation 5.1% N/A 2013 ▪  Emission standards N/A N/A N/A ▪  Subsidies for EE investments N/A N/A N/A

▪  Net emissions from forestry sector (estimate) 75 MtCO2e 0.0% 2010 ▪  Mean carbon content per Ha 226 tC/Ha N/A 2008

▪  Protected area (all IUCN categories) 25.6 Mn Ha +0.1% 2012 ▪  Net Ha of deforested land, degraded forest & peatland 0.1 Mn Ha N/A 2010 ▪  Total land forest & peat land area 33% of land area 0.0% 2012

On track?

Metric Current value Best-in-class Change y-o-y Nat’l goal 2o

Latest update

+0.7%

-1 %

PRELIMINARY"

On track?

Metric Current value Best-in-class Change y-o-y Nat’l goal 2o

Latest update

Dashboard mock-up (3/3) Sector share of 2010 emissions

4%

Waste

Buildings

SLCFs

5%

3%

Drivers

Drivers

Drivers




▪  Amount of solid waste generated per capita 0.36 tCO2e/cap +1.6% 2012

▪  Total emissions from waste sector (solid and wastewater)

44.1 MtCO2e +4.9% 2010

▪  % of collected waste landfilled ▪  % of collected waste recycled

65% 5%

+1.3 p.p. 2012 2012

▪  Methane recovered from landfills N/A N/A N/A ▪  % of sewage sludge biologically treated 43.4% +2.1 p.p. 2012

▪  Total emissions from buildings sector 21.5 MtCO2e 2010

▪  Retrofit rates for existing buildings N/A N/A N/A ▪  Efficiency standards of new buildings N/A N/A N/A ▪  % of heating needs provided by oil and coal ▪  % of heating needs provided by electricity & solar

43% +0.2% 2012

▪  Efficiency standards of new electric appliances N/A N/A N/A ▪  Subsidies for EE retrofits & solar heating Yes N/A N/A

▪  Emissions of methane, NOx, black carbon N/A N/A N/A

2.94% ▪  Share of diesel vehicles +0.3 p.p. 2012 27.6% ▪  Share of wood used in residential heating/cooking -0.2% 2012

▪  Share of waste incinerated N/A N/A N/A ▪  Share of F-gas vs non-F-gas alternatives by sector N/A N/A N/A

▪  Emission intensity of waste sector 386 kgCO2e/cap +2.8% 2010

▪  Emissions per square meter building area 0.79 kgCO2e/m2 N/A 2010

PRELIMINARY

+0.2 p.p.

+2.2%

30% 2012 +0.1%

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