1

• TV only sales effect• As TV activity was a national campaign a model was

constructed.• Expected sales was based on previous sales (data

adjusted for seasonal variation, category trends, competitor behaviour, promotional activity, previous advertising etc)

• Any difference between actual and the model was attributed to the TV campaign

• ‘TV only’ analysis was conducted for the period when TV was the only advertising activity

• TV & Newspapers sales effect• Looked at those Tesco Clubcard holders exposed to

specific newspapers containing the Hovis ads• The ‘TV only’ model methodology was then applied• Analysis conducted for period when both TV and

newspapers running, and post campaign period

Sales evaluation by dunnhumby

2

Methodology - defining the Exposed and Control groups

Every Clubcard member was defined by five criteria:

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££ Lifestyles

Levels of brandpurchasing

Levels of competitor purchasing

Total spend inTesco in the preand post periods

Tesco defined lifestyleprofiles based on

shopping behaviour

The number of Newspaper titles purchased that contained the test advert

Exposed:’00,000

Control:’00,000

3

• All analysis was carried out using a panel of regular shoppers using Tesco Clubcard

• Tesco Clubcard members were split into Control and Exposed groups depending on whether they purchased the newspaper titles carrying the advertising in Tesco

• These two groups were then matched by affluence and relevant purchasing behaviour to create balanced groups which were used to measure the effectiveness of the newspaper advertising

• Newspaper advertising effects were then calculated by splitting the data into pre, during and post campaign periods

(Uplifts are conservative, as only 9% of newspaper purchases are made in Tesco. Therefore the Control group is also likely to contain people who have seen, and acted upon, the newspaper campaign.)

Sales evaluation by dunnhumby