the new complexity its nature and proximity the new complexity its nature and proximity wide...
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The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
The New ComplexityThe New ComplexityIts Nature and ProximityIts Nature and Proximity
Wide Thinking RequiredWide Thinking Required
John Voeller, Black & VeatchJohn Voeller, Black & Veatch
Major Changes, Key Drivers, Principal Interrupts And Enticing Opportunities
For the Next Decade
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
So What DoesThe Future Look Like
In Which We AllWill Operate
Major Changes, Key Drivers, Principal Interrupts And Enticing Opportunities
For the Next Decade
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
The Context of Our SessionThe World Seems On Every Front to Be
Getting More Disrupted, More Dangerous and More Complex. Is This Our Imagination Or If It Is Not and Risk of Almost Every Form
Is Increasing What Are We Doing To Improve Our Data, Analysis, Simulation And
Interpretation Capabilities To Understand and Anticipate
Tomorrow
Major Changes, Key Drivers, Principal Interrupts And Enticing Opportunities
For the Next Decade
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Our GoalTo Discuss Efforts From Industry, National
Labs And Overseas International Efforts That Are Examining the Nature of Risk Now And In The Futures We Can See Or Suggest
Are Possible And How We Can Examine Them Fully
Fundamental Concept Introduced
Major Changes, Key Drivers, Principal Interrupts And Enticing Opportunities
For the Next Decade
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Major Changes, Key Drivers, Principal Interrupts And Enticing Opportunities
For the Next Decade
Our Path For the Next Hour
Risk – Forms, Sources and RepresentationsAging – Implications At A Global LevelGrowth – You Have a Billion New Customers….Energy – The Reality We IgnoreWater – Another Reality We IgnoreClimate Change? – Blind Decision MakingMinerals – Running Out Without KnowingAll Resources – A New MinimumGovernment – Trying HardIndustry – Waiting For Answers and Making DoNarrow Thinking – An International ExampleBroad Thinking – A Reasonable AttemptWide Thinking – Making Tomorrow An Opportunity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Risk
Per
ceiv
ed I
mp
act
– B
illi
on
s o
f D
oll
ars
US
Unlikely Likely Very Likely
Size ~ LikelihoodDarker ~ More Impact
Situational Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Risk
Size ~ LikelihoodDarker ~ More Impact
Wider – Stronger Link
Situational Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Aging Situational Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Aging Situational Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Growth Situational Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Growth
Percentage of PopulationYounger Than 30 yrs Old
Situational Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Energy Resource Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Lloyds 2011 World Risk Assessment1. Businesses Which Prepare For And Take Advantage Of The New Energy Reality Will Prosper – Failure To Do So Could Be Catastrophic2. Market Dynamics And Environmental Factors Mean Business Can No Longer Rely On Low Cost Traditional Energy Sources3. China And Growing Asian Economies Will Play An Increasingly Important Role In Global Energy Security4. We Are Heading Towards A Global Oil Supply Crunch And Price Spike5. Energy Infrastructure Will Become Increasingly Vulnerable As A Result Of Climate Change And Operations In Harsher Environments6. Lack Of Global Regulation On Climate Change Is Creating An Environment Of Uncertainty For Business, Which Is Damaging Investment Plans7. To Manage Increasing Energy Costs And Carbon Exposure Businesses Must Reduce Fossil Fuel Consumption8. Business Must Address Energy-Related Risks To Supply Chains And The Increasing Vulnerability Of ‘Just-In-Time’ Models9. Investment In Renewable Energy And ‘Intelligent’ Infrastructure Is Booming. This Revolution Presents Huge Opportunities For New Business Partnerships
Energy Resource Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Energy Resource Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Energy Resource Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Energy
EnvironmentalPollution Liability
Increasing Emission& Performance Stds
Renewable EnergyPolicy Uncertainty
Regulatory andEnvironmental Risks
Physical andOperational Risks
Operational ThreatsIn Unstable Areas
Harsher PhysicalEnvironments
Reputation RIsks
RegionalCarbon Pricing
Lack of Climate PolicyFor Long-term Planning
Risks for Energy Sector
Financial andInvestment Risks
Carbon PriceUncertainty
Price FluctuationsHinder Decision-making
Future DemandUncertainty
Policy Change UndermineViability of Investments
Technology andResource Access Risks
Uncertain Political CommitmentTo Technology Incentives
Infrastructure FailureVia Climate Change
Operational ThreatsIn Unstable Areas
Harsher PhysicalEnvironments
Infrastructure FailureVia Climate Change
Resource Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Energy
Carbon PriceUncertainty
Increasing Laws andStds on Efficiency
Consumer Pressure ForCO2 Emissions Labeling
Financial andRegulatory Risks
ReputationManagement
Scrutiny ofCarbon Portfolio
Services CompromisedBy Energy Disruption
Longer-TermOperational RIsks
RegionalCarbon Pricing
Lack of Climate PolicyFor Long-term Planning
Risks for Wider Business
Short-term SupplyChain Risks
Fuel and PowerSupply Disruptions
Higher and VolatileEnergy Prices
GovernmentPolicies
Policy Change UndermineViability of Investments
TechnologyRisks
Uncertain Political CommitmentTo Technology Incentives
Resource Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
From the national energy front, the following is fundamental:
There are 9 cars per thousand people in China todayThere are 300+ cars per thousand people in the USA today
When China goes to 11 cars per thousand people, they will consume another 71 million gallons of gasoline per day
That is 21 million more gallons than the entire US burns in a day.
The math is inescapable….
Basic Realities
Energy Resource Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Water Resource Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Water Resource Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Some Simple ArithmeticAmount of water total on Earth – Fixed
Amount of recoverable fresh water on earth – Fixed without desal
Amount of desal-based water supportable with current technology – 11% of world requirements currently
limited by energy costs
Population Growth in same period – 2-3 billion
Basic Realities
Water Resource Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Water Resource Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Climate Change? Threat Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Climate Change? Threat Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Climate Change? Threat Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Climate Change? Threat Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Climate Change? Threat Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Climate Change?
None of These And Almost All Others IgnoredThe Emissions of 31 Chemicals With Many
Times The GHG Impact of CO2 IncludingMethane Which Is 100 times the CO2 ImpactPer Cubic Foot and Ocean Emissions of This
Are Increasing At A Massive Rate Due ToOcean Warming and Current Deviations
Climate Change?
Threat Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Researchers predict that supplies of
indium, used in liquid-crystal displays
and of hafnium, a critical element for
next-generation semiconductors
such as N-Core Chips
could be exhausted by 2017.
and
The world's zinc will be gone by 2037
Minerals Innovation Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
General Electric discovered last year that
the one mineral known to prevent high
temperature creep in their
aircraft turbine blades was unavailable
because of Chinese market control
Millions were Spent on Substitute As
Market Price Increased 13,000%
Minerals Innovation Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Qualcom recently examined the current cell phones and found they use
61 elements of the periodic table
up from 15 in 2002
Most are no longer under Western control and
there are no substitutes for the majority
of them.
Minerals Innovation Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Minerals Innovation Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
China’s rare earth monopoly threatens global suppliers
Following two acquisitions in the past six months, Korean, Japanese and Western players may be locked out of the sector. With over 90% of the global rare earth resource held by Chinese companies, the country’s monopoly looks unchallenged.
China currently produces 95% of the worlds rare earth supply. Rare earth metals are needed for manufacturing of wind turbines, plasma televisions, mobile phones, hybrid car batteries meaning a China monopoly could shift the high-tech manufacturing bases from Japan and Korea to China.
China employs a three-pronged strategy; rare earth exports are restricted, imports encouraged, and outbound rare earth acquisitions actively encouraged.
Minerals Innovation Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
"China at 10% GDP growth per year, has become the largest consumer of several key metals, generating about one-quarter of the total world demand for aluminum, copper, and steel
China consumes 25% of the world's aluminum, 22% of copper, 18% of nickel, 44% of iron ore and 31% of steel.
India is a close second with an economy that is expanding at a clip of more than 9% annually.
Economists say a growth rate of 9% to 10% is probable for China for the rest of the decade while they say 7% to 8% is sustainable in India."
Minerals Innovation Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Definition – Era of Insufficient Plenty
The last century starting with the industrial revolution has been characterized by two major processes. The first is the extraction and processing of natural resources to feed the product lines at a reasonable cost. The second was the finding and buying or negotiating for a commodity, device or knowledge fragment with confidence that it was available albeit at a price. What happens when things we need for our processes become unavailable at any price and we are not ready with the tools and knowledge of alternatives with full cognizance. This situation suggests that every major engineering discipline will be challenged to find alternative materials, methods and processes.
All Resources Innovation Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
So What Is Government Doing
Now ToIncrease Complexity
Government Rule Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
A new Executive Order requires agencies reduce GHG emissions
• 30% reduction in vehicle fleet petroleum use by 2020; • 26% improvement in water efficiency by 2020; • 50% recycling and waste diversion by 2015; • 95% of all applicable contracts will meet sustainability requirements; • Implementation of the 2030 net-zero-energy building requirement; • Implementation of the stormwater provisions of the Energy
Independence and Security Act of 2007, section 438; and • Development of guidance for sustainable Federal building locations in
alignment with the Livability Principles put forward by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Department of Transportation, and the Environmental Protection Agency.
Government Rule Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
• Aggressive moves by GSA to force strong metrics in all facilities from the CIA to the VA
• Dept. of Homeland Security looking at lack of pursuit of sustainability as a form of national insecurity that should be addressed in tandem with security
• NIST teaming with National Institute of Building Science to create very aggressive energy, materials and methods standard based on sustainability
Government Rule Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
• DOD has already adopted major metrics in future energy use from number of jeep trips across bases to placement of modular nuclear units as base load
• Dir of National Intelligence released open IDIQ with no limits on task size or number to apply sustainable solutions to all intel facilities world-wide
• Environmental Protection Agency is waiting to impose rules and regulations. A recent analysis, however, suggests the environmental agency may ultimately do more harm than good depending on how it acts.
Government Rule Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
• After a century of developing materials, standards, specs and processes, we must re-examine them in light of sustainability of all kinds
• This will demand intense discipline, personal and corporate to make sure this is a positive, not a negative value event
• We have an opportunity to return engineering to its very roots by rethinking all the assumptions on which the last century of engineering was based.
Government Rule Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
So What Is Industry Doing To
Address This
Industry Business Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Plants and Facilities FutureComplexity Of Plant Devices Goes Way Up
Complexity Of Plant Economic Optimization Goes Up
Complexity Of Plant Systems and Systems Integration Goes Up
Complexity Of Plant Upgrade Path Goes Up and Cycle Accelerates
Complexity Of Process Content Goes Up
Complexity Of Sensory Systems And Their Interpretation Goes Up
Complexity Of Design And Construction’s View To Operational
And Maintenance Impacts And Consequences Goes Up
And Finally Overt Demands That Certain Tools and Functions Be
Artificially Applied With Limited Knowledge of Consequence
Industry Business Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Industry Business Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Industry Business Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Industry Business Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Industry Business Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Industry Business Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Industry Business Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Industry Business Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Industry Business Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
An Example of HowWrong National Wisdom
Can Be As BasisFor Future Projects
Narrow Thinking Decision Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Narrow Thinking Decision Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Broad Thinking Decision Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Wide Thinking Decision Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
An Example of HowBad National
Awareness Of TheWorld Can Be
Narrow Thinking Decision Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Narrow Thinking Decision Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Narrow Thinking
19(2008)
32(1991)
1996 – Congress PassesHelium Privatization Act
1991 – Federal Helium Reserve(billions of cubic ft)
Decision Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Some ExamplesOf Advanced Technologies
With Significant ImplicationsTo Infrastructure
Wide Thinking Value Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Wide Thinking Value Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Wide Thinking Value Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Wide Thinking Value Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Wide Thinking Value Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
What Are SomeImplications For
Projects In The Future
Wide Think Tools Making Complexity Work
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Petroleum Process Model
Sector Desired FuelPurchase Rate
FuelInventory atDistributors Distributor Sales
Rate
Expected ProductReplacement Time
Maximum SalesRate
Total DesiredSales Rate
Sector FractionalAllocation
Sector FuelDemand Weight
Total WeightedDemand
Sector WeightedDemand
DistributorShortage
Distributor Effect of PerceivedShortage on Desired
Coverage Table
Distributor Effect ofPerceived Shortage on
Desired Coverage
DistributorPerceivedShortage
Distributor Time toPerceive Shortage
Distributor Change inPerceived Shortage
Desired DistributorFuel Coverage
PerceivedDemand
RateChange in Perceived
Demand Rate
Time to ChangePerceived Demand
Rate
Current DistributorFuel Coverage
Relative DistributorFuel Coverage
Effect of Relative Coverageon Indicated Fuel Price
Table
PerceivedFuel PriceChanging Perception
of Fuel Price
Effect of RelativeCoverage on Indicated
Fuel Price
Spot Fuel Price
Time to ChangePerceived Fuel Price
Fuel RetailMarkup
Fuel Retail Price
Sector Fuel SalesRate
DistributorInventory Deficit
Distributor DesiredPurchasing Rate
DistributorAcquisition Rate
Nominal DistributorFuel Coverage
Distributor/Retailer
Refiner
Refiner Desired FuelPurchase Rate
ProductInventory at
Refiners Refiner Sales Rate
ExpectedProduction Time
Maximum RefinerySales Rate
Total DesiredRefiner Sales Rate
PAD FractionalAllocation
Refiner FuelDemand Weight
Total WeightedRefiner Demand
PAD WeightedDemand
Desired RefinerInventory Coverage
PerceivedDistributors
Demand RateChange in PerceivedDistributors Demand
Rate
Time to Change PerceivedDistributors Demand Rate
Current RefineryInventory Coverage
PAD Fuel SalesRate
Refiner ProductInventory Deficit
Refiner DesiredProduction Rate
RefineryProduction Rate
Nominal RefinerInventory Coverage
Distributor DesiredImport Rate
Maximum RefiningCapacity
Product Yield perUnit Crude
Additional Yieldfrom Additives
AdditiveAvailability
Current ProductYield
Current Price perUnit Crude
Fixed Costs
Variable UnitCosts
Unit Production Costsfor Perceived Demand
Crude Price
VolumeConversion
Operation Rate forPerceived Demand
Minimum RefineryCapacity Utilization
Minimum RefineryOperation Rate
Available RefiningCapacity
Refinery CapacityDamage Indicator
Time Conversion
Product Markup
Effect of Product Markupon Capacity Utilization
Table
Effect of Product Markupon Capacity Utilization
Economic TargetOperation Rate
CrudeInventory at
Refiner RefineryOperation Rate
Refinery CycleTime
Crude Limited RefineryOperation Rate
Labor Availability
Power Availability
Inventory BasedTarget Operation Rate
Effect of PowerAvailability on Available
Capacity
Effect of LaborAvailability on Available
Capacity
Aggregate Effects onAvailable Capacity
Target OperationRate
Average TargetOperation Rate
Time to Form AverageTarget Operation Rate
Change in AverageTarget Operation Rate
Desired Crude InventoryCoverage at Refinery
Current Crude InventoryCoverage at Refinery
Crude InventoryDeficit at Refinery
Refinery CrudeInventory Adjustment
Time
Desired Crude TransferRate from Terminal
Storage
Nominal Crude TransferCapacity to Refinery
Effect of Power Availability onCrude Transfer Capacity to
Refinery
Crude Inventory atTerminals and Tank
Farms
Maximum CrudeTransfer Rate to
Refineries
Transfering Crudeto Refinery
Desired Crude InventoryCoverage at Terminals and
Tank Farms
Current Crude InventoryCoverage at Terminals and
Tank FarmsCrude Inventory Deficit atTerminals and Tank Farms
Desired CrudeAcquisition Rate
Time to Adjust Inventory atTerminals and Tank Farms
Rate of DomesticProduction
Transfer Requestedfrom Other Districts
Maximum TransferRate to Other Districts
Transfer Rate toOther Districts
Total Transfer Rate toOther Districts
Maximum Market inOther Districts
Target Transfer Rateto Other Districts
Time to Form AverageTarget Transfer Rate
Average TargetTransfer Rate Changing Average
Target Transfer Rate
Total TargetTransfer Rate
Transfer Offered toOther Districts
Minimum CrudeInventory Transfer
Time
Maximum Crude TransferRate from Terminals and
Tank Farms
Maximum Crude TransferRate to Other Districts
Total TransferRequested from Other
Districts
Fraction of RequestedTransfer Supplied
Serviceable Fraction ofTotal Target Transfer
Rate
Crude AcquisitionRate
Desired AcquisitionRate from Other PADs
Total Import Capacityfrom Other Districts
Requested ImportsFrom Other PADs Imports from
Other PADs
Desired ForeignImports
Foreign ImportRate
Time to AcquireForeign Imports
Time to AcquireTransfers for Other
Districts CrudeBuyer
NOTE: Zoom to 300% to see details
Wide Think Tools Making Complexity Work
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Agriculture Simulation Model
Crops
Animals: mature
Seeding
Production
Harvesting
Slaughtering
fraction humanfood crop
Processednon-consumable
animal
Human cropproduction
S earnings rate
C earlings rate
Crop DEMAND
crop adjustment
animal adjustment
EXTERNALSECTORS
Feeding
A mortality
C mortality
Total Sector Earnings
Trees: matureCutting
T earnings rate
lumber adjustment
L mortality
Lumber & treeproducts
Trees: youngPlanting Tree
maturationrate
Tree maturation time
YT mortality
Lumber DEMAND
Meat DEMAND
Animals: youngAnimal maturation rate
animal maturation time
meat production forhuman consumption
animal fraction
YA mortality
Dairy production
dairy fraction
D earningsDairy DEMAND
fruit production
fraction fruit trees
Processednon-consumable crops
crop feeding fraction
non-feed crop products
Wide Think Tools Making Complexity Work
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Farm Machinery
CornProduction
Corn Seed
Services
Pesticides
Fertilizer
Energy
Building Materials
Telecommunications
Autos & Trucks
Fuels
Labor
Water
Capital
Supplies
Corn
Energy
Labor
Capital WetMilling
DryMilling
Energy
Glucoamylase Enzyme
Telecommunications
Alpha Amylase Enzyme
Fuels
Labor
Water
Capital
Supplies
Yeast
Distillers Dried Grains w/Solubles
Distillers Wet Grains
Bran Products
Hominy
Condensed Distillers Solubles
Flour
Ethyl Alcohol
Standard Meal
Prime Grits
Prime Meal?
Crude Corn Oil
Energy
Telecommunications
Fuels
Labor
Water
Capital
Supplies
Ethyl Alcohol
Corn Syrup
Dextrose/Dextrin
Corn Oil
High Fructose Corn Syrup
Gluten Meal
Gluten Feed
Starch
Wet Feed
Germ Meal
Gluten
Condensed Corn Fermented Extractives
Energy
Telecommunications
Fuels
Labor
Water
Capital
Supplies
Sulfur Dioxide
WholeKernel
YeastFood Products
PharmaceuticalsIndustrial
Production
FoodProcessing
IndustrialProduction
FoodProcessing
Pharmaceuticals
FoodFood
IndustrialProduction
ChemicalProduction
Textiles
Plastics
Food
FoodProcessing
Cosmetics
IndustrialProduction
AlcoholicBeverages
Fuels
Pharmaceuticals
IndustrialProduction
ChemicalProduction
Textiles
Plastics
FoodProcessing
Pharmaceuticals
IndustrialProduction
AlcoholicBeverages
Fuels
Pharmaceuticals
Input & Output
Critical Infrastructure Dependency
Process
Commodity Flow Direction
Demand & Information Flow Direction
Consumer Marketplace
Industrial Marketplace
Infrastructure Critical Dependency
Output enters different infrastructure
Storage Process
Legend
Feed
Food
mostly feed?to be expanded
FoodProcessing
Chemicals
Pharmaceuticals
FoodProcessing Yeast
Corn OilProcessing
Corn Oil
Feed
Primarily feed or food?
Version 11/3/2003 CIP/DSS
Corn Detailed Input/Process/Output Diagram
Wide Think Tools Making Complexity Work
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Liquidity Simulation Model
MBa :: Liquidity
MBa :: Liquidity OutMBa :: Liquidity In
MBa :: DepositActivity
MBa :: BondInterestMBa :: Direct
Deposit Activity
MBa :: ReserveTransfers In
MBa :: CashReserves
NBa :: FederalReserve Availability
MBa :: ReserveRequirement
MBa :: PositionAfter Transfer
MBf :: ATMOperations
MXf :: ElectricityAvailability
MTf :: TransportationAvailability
MIf :: TelecomAvailaiblity
MBf :: BankingOperations
M?f :: LaborAvailability
NBa :: MarketActivities
MBf :: BankingOperationsCapacity
MBf :: BankRepair
Metropolitan Banking & Finance Sector (MB): LiquidityKEY: bold = external inputs; bold italic = external outputs; red = other sectors; blue = national model; gray = other views (subsectors)
MBf :: DamageFraction
MBa :: CashDemand
MBf :: PostalAvailability
MBf :: CashCoverage
MBa :: Cash UsageMBa :: Cash to
Consumer
MBa :: UnservedCash Demand
MBf :: FractionUnserved Cash
MBa :: IV CashOn Hand
MBa :: DesiredCash Coverage
MBf :: Lookup forUnserved Cash
MBf :: CashWithdrawelMultiplier
MBf :: Lookup forCash Withdrawel
MBa :: CreditDemand
MBf :: CreditCoverage
MBa :: Credit on HandMBa :: Credit to
Consumer
MBa :: UnservedCredit Demand
MBf :: FractionUnserved Credit
MBa :: IV CreditOn Hand
MBa :: DesiredCredit Coverage
MBf :: Lookup forUnserved Credit
MBf :: CreditWithdrawelMultiplier
MBf :: Lookup forCredit Withdrawel
MBa :: Credit Usage
MBf :: BankDamage
MBa :: Hour ofDamage
MBa :: HourBack in
Operation
MBa :: NormalInterest
MBa :: ReserveCoverage
MBa :: Lookup forReserve Transfer
MBa : NominalDirect Deposits
MBa :: Nominal Cash
MBa :: Nominal Credit
MBf :: FractionUnfilled Reserve
MBa :: Cash on Hand
MBa :: TransferRate
Wide Think Tools Making Complexity Work
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Decision
Constraint(D < 16”)
Input(vendor =Haworth)
Linkage(Owner =Procurement)
Consequence(Valve decisionlocked)
Action(Valve bought)
Implication(Valve_ShipDate Can BeSet)
N
1
N
N
N
N
0, 1
Example Elements of a Decision
Valve
DecisionType = Buy
Wide Thinking Making Complexity Work
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Object Baseline
Attributes MethodsMessages
Perform Action
Sense alignmentCanvas constraints
Receive Input
Enable implications
Decision Made
Input needed/accepted
Link registered
Constraint sensed
DECISION
Type ConsequenceConstraint ActionInput ImplicationLinkage
Wide Thinking Making Complexity Work
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Data States
Each Item of Information Has A Unique Set of States
Awareness of State Allows Assembly of SituationalUnderstanding of Next Actions
Transition From One State To Another Is NotificationTrigger and Enables Spontaneous Collaboration
No System In The World Currently Provides For This
Wide Thinking Making Complexity Work
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Data States
HOLD DONEPLANNEDDO-IT
ALL-IN
OURS
MINE
THEIRS
TESTED HAND-OFF THEIRS
PUMP A - Activity Code in Schedule
PUMP A - Flow Rate
PUMP A - Inlet Size
PUMP A - Delivery Date
Transition Indicates Discipline Release and Trigger ForMulti-Discipline Review
Wide Thinking Making Complexity Work
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
ARIA (Automated Revision Implication Assessment)One of the greatest sources of risk in the EC realm is misalignment
between groups when changes occur in one and are not communicated to others. ARIA was developed in 1993 to ensure that the implications of change are evaluated automatically and the appropriate groups are
at minimum notified and in sophisticated implementations, actions are taken directly to prevent embracing of what appears to be positive but
isolated steps that actually destroy value in other dependent efforts.
Wide Thinking Making Complexity Work
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
How Does All ThisImpact Infrastructures
And People ThatCreate Them
Wide Thinking Simplifying Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Integrated Infrastructure Initiative
How do we look across all of infrastructure issues and develop an integrated Model that feeds value from one solution to support addressing of another?
It is complex, requires addressing far more than engineering and construction and cannot be done by one company or level of government alone.
The following discusses what might be done and what needs to be analyzed in detail to ensure we are not overlooking a major opportunity for us and something the current Administration and both houses of Congress would find far too compelling to ignore.
The following describes several drivers including one we never consider that are must to-do’s that can feed our other needs.
Wide Thinking Making Complexity Work Simplifying Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
OldWater
NewWater
OldWasteWater
NewTrans
OldTrans OldTrans
OldPower
NewPower
OldNuclear
NewNuclear
NewTrans
Efficiency
Renewables
NewWasteWater
SourcesNeed to be
Rebalanced whileWe expand foodSupply and cleanThe acquifers andSurface sources
OutputsModels are based on
cost – must be moved toNew metrics and full
Implications understoodMust leverage all sources
And uses
OutputsDesigned for prior era
Cost sole focusCost and Price controlNeeds alteration and
Different managementOpportunistic owning
Needs to beexamined
FuelsSwitchover demandsMade w/o full analysis
Not all choices examinedAnd tangential impacts
IgnoredNo guarantee steps
will help
Economy
Regulations
UndergroundIncrementally plannedVery Old in some portionsRight of way is undergroundAnd not protected on surfaceMaintenance Cost Very High
SunWindNexGen BiomassAuxStoragePowerControlT&D grid accessOverall still not cost effective
Incrementally planned and not built for use of todayVery Old in some portionsNot built for changesRight of way valuableMaintenance high
Some must be converted to NG or a mix of coal and NGSome must be shut down and asset abandonedRestructure using distributedRecognize grid map may now be wrongLow VC available
Low Bond availableHigh Yield Not possibleCities brokePensions damaged or goneMust fill job needsNew knowledge needed not just replication of past knowledgeCurrent plans forward assume stranded assets are acceptable – are not
Underground and very costly to put back in same placeMany failures and increasingUse and demand map may be wrong nowOwnership by cities a questionCurrent function not enough
Chance to incorporate recycle in places of scarcityChance to change ownership model and financialsRun on surface to lower cost and speed replacement.
UndergroundUnpoweredEnmonitoredAncient in many localesRight of way is undergroundAnd not protected on surfaceMaintenance Cost Very High
Expensive to buildVery slow to constructHigh carbon footprint on contentDecades old, on extended licensesBase load valuable
Begin distributed power Rebalance map and types due to area changes and needsChange owner and value view
Based on assumptions not necessarily correct todayBuried in thousands of Codes, specs, requirements, Bid documents, work rules, etc.Current authorities beingCapricious in application
Gen II+ no better than currentPBMR lower carbon footprint and lower cost maintenancePBMR faster construction at lower costSmall nucs for power, heat, desal and hydrogen gen
Chance to incorporate recycle in places of scarcityChance to change ownership model and financialsRun on surface to lower cost and speed replacement.
Last four decades focused on cost onlyNeed new metrics and full understanding of impacts across all aspects of the business, environmental, economy and society
Ocean
Aquifers
Rivers
Lakes
Storage
Power
Drink
Treated
Industrial
Storage
Above groundIntegrated planReplace old & own differentRethink right of way with roadMaintenance cost lower and monitor/control easySupport dist. Power option
Integrated plan and ownRebalance for optionsChange use modelLeverage right of wayChange maintenance modelAdd dynamic elements for easier change
Coal
Oil
NG
Water
Waste
Power Control
Base Load
T&D Losses
PowerIndustrial
Storage
Nuclear
Integrated Infrastructure InitiativeThe Landscape of Assets and Issues
PowerTransport
Simplifying Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
OldWater
NewWater
OldWasteWater
NewTrans
OldTrans OldTrans
OldPower
NewPower
OldNuclear
NewNuclear
NewTrans
Efficiency
Renewables
NewWasteWater
SourcesNeed to be
Rebalanced whileWe expand foodSupply and cleanThe acquifers andSurface sources
OutputsModels are based on
cost – must be moved toNew metrics and full
Implications understoodMust leverage all sources
And uses
OutputsDesigned for prior era
Cost sole focusCost and Price controlNeeds alteration and
Different managementOpportunistic owning
Needs to beexamined
FuelsSwitchover demandsMade w/o full analysis
Not all choices examinedAnd tangential impacts
IgnoredNo guarantee steps
will help
Economy
Regulations
UndergroundIncrementally plannedVery Old in some portionsRight of way is undergroundAnd not protected on surfaceMaintenance Cost Very High
SunWindNexGen BiomassAuxStoragePowerControlT&D grid accessOverall still not cost effective
Incrementally planned and not built for use of todayVery Old in some portionsNot built for changesRight of way valuableMaintenance high
Some must be converted to NG or a mix of coal and NGSome must be shut down and asset abandonedRestructure using distributedRecognize grid map may now be wrongLow VC available
Low Bond availableHigh Yield Not possibleCities brokePensions damaged or goneMust fill job needsNew knowledge needed not just replication of past knowledgeCurrent plans forward assume stranded assets are acceptable – are not
Underground and very costly to put back in same placeMany failures and increasingUse and demand map may be wrong nowOwnership by cities a questionCurrent function not enough
Chance to incorporate recycle in places of scarcityChance to change ownership model and financialsRun on surface to lower cost and speed replacement.
UndergroundUnpoweredEnmonitoredAncient in many localesRight of way is undergroundAnd not protected on surfaceMaintenance Cost Very High
Expensive to buildVery slow to constructHigh carbon footprint on contentDecades old, on extended licensesBase load valuable
Begin distributed power Rebalance map and types due to area changes and needsChange owner and value view
Based on assumptions not necessarily correct todayBuried in thousands of Codes, specs, requirements, Bid documents, work rules, etc.Current authorities beingCapricious in application
Gen II+ no better than currentPBMR lower carbon footprint and lower cost maintenancePBMR faster construction at lower costSmall nucs for power, heat, desal and hydrogen gen
Chance to incorporate recycle in places of scarcityChance to change ownership model and financialsRun on surface to lower cost and speed replacement.
Last four decades focused on cost onlyNeed new metrics and full understanding of impacts across all aspects of the business, environmental, economy and society
Ocean
Aquifers
Rivers
Lakes
Storage
Power
Drink
Treated
Industrial
Storage
Above groundIntegrated planReplace old & own differentRethink right of way with roadMaintenance cost lower and monitor/control easySupport dist. Power option
Integrated plan and ownRebalance for optionsChange use modelLeverage right of wayChange maintenance modelAdd dynamic elements for easier change
Coal
Oil
NG
Water
Waste
Power Control
Base Load
T&D Losses
PowerIndustrial
Storage
Nuclear
Integrated Infrastructure InitiativeThe Landscape of Assets and Issues
PowerTransport
Simplifying Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
The premise of the Integrated Infrastructure Initiative (III)is based on a few basic facts.
1. There are certain areas of current infrastructure that are failing or will soon because of age or unforeseen usage demands and must be replaced as their loss produces substantial socio-economic disruption.
2. Some of these infrastructure are buried below cities, businesses or landspace making replacement costly and maintenance more costly than if surface installed. The original premise for design can be overcome with modern engineering and controls.
3. Some infrastructure must be replaced because their GHG profile is unfavorable and others may require major revision where the obvious choice may be wrong and the best choice overlooked.
4. Some infrastructure should be examined for replacement or revision in order to be significantly more efficient, more sustainable or in cases of critical infrastructure, more resilient.
5. The current owners/operators of several key infrastructure types are having unprecedented financial problems with no clear path out in the next decade. A new model and likely new ownership is required and must be part of the integrated view to overall infrastructure renewal. We must be able to leverage all investor options and take advantage of the fact that most other investment vehicles are at an all-time low allowing attractive options to be cost effective in the long term.
6. Any major national infrastructure rebuilding effort will create jobs and provide immediate socio-economic benefit at a time when normal processes cannot build the necessary momentum.
Integrated Infrastructure Initiative
Wide Thinking Proactive Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
The premise of the Integrated Infrastructure Initiative (III) is based on a few basic facts.
A Theory To Be Tested – If there are certain elements of infrastructure that must be replaced to prevent social, economic or environmental disruption or damage, can these be managed in such a way that once completed, some of their revenue/profits can seed other infrastructure projects of similar or different type in an investment cascade.
Path - Given all the incentives, enviro/eco credits from carbon to forest, money saved by alternative implementation in installation, operation and maintenance and the opportunity to make ready for the next decades, such a complex path must be fully explored and the silos that currently prevent this type of integrated thinking must be eliminated to ensure maximum benefit to society at minimum cost.
Integrated Infrastructure Initiative
Wide Thinking Proactive Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Example of Integrated Infrastructure
City 2.0 - Issues
In major cities, we have several infrastructures in a highly aged state and alreadyCollapsing at a very disruptive rate. The water, sanitary and storm sewers, gas, embedded communications and in some cases district heating. Digging up past infrastructure is costly at a minimum, nearly impossible in some areas and dooms any replacement to the high maintenance costs and disruption that are inherent in urban underground infrastructure.
These same cities experience massive gridlock and transportation problems with few options, a need to reformulate areas of the inner city for living, no money to do anything new, no bond market to fund long term in conventional manner, tax revenues that are down and will stay down for years and most importantly, most cannot meet their pension fund obligations. Unlike roads, their ability to engage Congress on these issues is very limited and in some cases non-existent regardless of the lip service. (Ex: $400 billion to rebuild water infrastructure went to roads).
Integrated Infrastructure Initiative
Wide Thinking Proactive Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Example of Integrated Infrastructure
City 2.0 – Integrated Image
1. Business and ownership models rewritten to allow multiple investment paths, recovery options, customer sale back, etc. New infrastructure can have a completely different ownership, use charge and cash flow perspective.2. Deep urban area becomes multi-infrastructure layers. In transportation, the only option is up. Up means trucks on bottom layer, cars on second layer and people, bicycles and lower power electric people movers on third and utilities including new water, sewer, power, communications on layer one through four as needed. This allows new to be installed without disrupting existing, allows separation of modes with easy connection if needed and protection where needed. 3. Incrementally abandon underground water, sewer and gas infrastructure. Run on surface using transport right of way and elevation of layer structure. In order to change entire cost and change flexibility, consider running trapezoid chamber beside or in median of roads. This will allow easy installation, minimum maintenance disruption, visual confirmation of sensing control and easy expansion or change. New materials, near zero friction nano-coatings and renewable pumping energy technology make this possible.
Integrated Infrastructure Initiative
Wide Thinking Proactive Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Example of Integrated Infrastructure
City 2.0 – Integrated Image (cont’d)
4. The elevation of the layer scheme also allows use of Kinetic Energy Recovery Systems (KERS) for all inertial and potential energy capture in all movement to offset people and goods energy use.5. All infrastructure ownership would be private but with provisos for city government and civil service pension participation as investors, not controllers.6. All interconnection for any service would have a five year use permit attached after which it would expire and not be renewed. This would ensure that tangential and collateral costs for cities and its residents in embracing new technologies where companies benefit but others impacted have no recovery processes. In the last six telecom upgrades, the collateral impacts of placement and implementation have cost cities and citizens millions in each city just by clumsy use of directional drilling. Recovery methods need to be smart and change with technology, not solely when PSC’s wake up.
Integrated Infrastructure Initiative
Wide Thinking Proactive Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Integrated Infrastructure Initiative
Example of Integrated Infrastructure
Rethinking Power and LNG
In some areas of the world, there are massive moves planned to convert coal plants to other options but the options are impractical. One option is incremental conversion that achieves massive reductions in emissions while leveraging existing infrastructure in new ways.
III would take a different view. In areas where LNG can be brought to the coast, install a receiver terminal with a down conversion to CNG. CNG is 60% as compressed as LNG but requires no refrigeration. Then use coal trains already in use by inserting a CNG tank in each car. Finally, add secondary burners in coal boilers to allow mixed fuel firing for now until economics allow full conversion.
We avoid the pipeline cost and ROW issues of NG delivery to plants not on networks, we leverage existing assets at every level and we begin to show a positive, proactive movement to help with climate change to ease pressure and enhance some categories of investor communities.
Wide Thinking Proactive Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Integrated Infrastructure Initiative
We cannot do this alone and engineering companies together cannot move this ahead without a comprehensive plan involving government, industry, academia, investment groups, regulators and overseas markets with needs, interests and money to invest.
The silos of infrastructure, of government, of markets and of politics have prevented any of these examples and two dozen others from being possible, but the Obama Administration has many motivations for making this work if someone can express it to them in an authoritative manner. This means alliances with the NSF, DOE, EPA, DOC and the right Congressional committees.
In order to do this, we need to create an alliance based on a 501(c)-3 with an executive committee made up of CEO/President/Government leaders and an operational committee made up of working groups focused on integrated examples like the ones discussed here.
Integrated Infrastructure Initiative
Wide Thinking Proactive Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
What’s Next?
What’s Next Proactive Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
Assured 2022 Futurisms
N-state Computing Non-Linear is New MathMutels – Shape Shifting Metals Chaos is New CalculusMaterials Gardens Decision-centric ThinkingOrganic Machining Material RehabilitationMatrix Gels Molecular AerogelsIntelli-bending and shaping Direct Buyer GuidanceSelf-Organizing Omni-Networks Self-recycling MaterialsDNA-based Sensor Family Self Policing RegulationsGenetic Materials Self Routing GoodsGenetic Accounting Self SensingMulti-Phasic Materials Self RepairingSynthe-Syms Self ImprovingDynamic Intellectual Capital Self EliminatingInterDevice, InterSystem Self-Optimization
What’s Next This Is Only The Beginning
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
THE USCR – The consumption of any material or commodity equalTo That Of the United States In The Same Timeframe (default a year)
This is not the amount consumed on US soil, but the amount necessaryTo supply all needs, direct or indirect for that material.
Real Question Is – Can The World Stand 2 or more USCR not only inFood or Fuels but also in water, drugs, rare metals or even
Something as simple as molybdenum for lubricants
Only Integrated Innovation Can Hope To SolveThe Issues This Will Create
One Element of That Future
What’s Next Something To Keep In Mind
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
The New ComplexityThe New ComplexityIts Nature and ProximityIts Nature and Proximity
John Voeller, CKO, CTO, Senior VPJohn Voeller, CKO, CTO, Senior VPBlack & Veatch Black & Veatch [email protected]
816-853-7839, Skype – john.voeller49816-853-7839, Skype – john.voeller49
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The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity
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The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Risk Situational Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Narrow Thinking Decision Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Narrow Thinking Decision Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Narrow Thinking Decision Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Broad Thinking Decision Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Broad Thinking Future Complexity
The New ComplexityIts Nature and Proximity Broad Thinking Future Complexity