the mdgs at mid-point: what do we know and next steps francesca perucci united nations statistics...
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The MDGs at mid-point: The MDGs at mid-point: What do we know and next What do we know and next
stepssteps
Francesca PerucciFrancesca PerucciUnited Nations Statistics DivisionUnited Nations Statistics Division
International Conference on MDG StatisticsInternational Conference on MDG Statistics
Manila, 1 October 2007Manila, 1 October 2007
Monitoring progress Monitoring progress towards the MDGs towards the MDGs
1.1. Why is monitoring important?Why is monitoring important?
2.2. The impact of the monitoring The impact of the monitoring requirementsrequirements
3.3. What do we know at the MDG mid-What do we know at the MDG mid-point? point?
Monitoring progress Monitoring progress towards the MDGs towards the MDGs
1.1. Why is monitoring important?Why is monitoring important?
Monitoring: an essential element in achieving the goals Global monitoring
To inform the international political debate To sensitize public opinion on global
development issues To help development partners identify
priorities To improve coordination and collaboration
within the international community
National monitoring To raise awareness and help focus national
debate on development issues To help set national priorities
Both processes have been instrumental to increase the demand and promote the use of statistics for policy making and monitoring
Monitoring the MDGs and the impact on statistical
systems Monitoring requirements in countries
have increased the demand for official statistics
National and international reports have increased the visibility of official statistics
Monitoring reports are important advocacy tool for strengthening statistical capacity and improving statistics
Monitoring requirements have called the attention to shortcomings in the availability of data
Monitoring progress Monitoring progress towards the MDGs towards the MDGs
2.2. The impact of the monitoring The impact of the monitoring requirementsrequirements
Global monitoring: bringing the national and the
international statistical systems closer together
Data gaps and inconsistencies have been uncovered in the international series
The dialogue between national and international statistical communities is initiated in the UN Statistical Commission and in the IAEG on MDG Indicators
The Friends of the Chair review what’s available in international sources
The debate has been very intense and has resulted in a number of very concrete and effective actions.
Improved dialogue: the first results
Results: ECSOC Resolution, in July 2006, to address:
issues related to national statistical capacity building
transparency and adequacy of metadata in international sources
use of sound methodologies for MDG indicators and estimates.
Increasing involvement of countries’ agencies in the process of estimation and adjustment of data
National statistical offices in the IAEG made recommendations to improve data availability in international sources: Through improved reporting mechanisms
Through better coordination within national statistical systems
Better understanding by national statisticians of MDG indicators metadata
Monitoring progress Monitoring progress towards the MDGs towards the MDGs
3.3. What do we know at the MDG What do we know at the MDG mid-point? mid-point?
The MDGs at mid-pointThe MDGs at mid-point The Millennium Declaration and the Millennium The Millennium Declaration and the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs) have become a truly Development Goals (MDGs) have become a truly shared framework for development.shared framework for development.
The “MDG mid-point” presents a vital opportunity The “MDG mid-point” presents a vital opportunity for UN leadership and for donor countries to for UN leadership and for donor countries to promote and support acceleration of the promote and support acceleration of the implementation of the MDGs.implementation of the MDGs.
The focus for the remaining seven years must be on The focus for the remaining seven years must be on implementation.implementation.
Progress at the MDG Mid-PointProgress at the MDG Mid-Point Seven years on and halfway to 2015, the Seven years on and halfway to 2015, the
deadline set for the achievement of the deadline set for the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals, we see Millennium Development Goals, we see that success is possible. that success is possible.
The Goals, which set quantitative The Goals, which set quantitative benchmarks to halve extreme poverty in benchmarks to halve extreme poverty in all its forms, are achievable if countries all its forms, are achievable if countries commit themselves to sound governance commit themselves to sound governance and accountability and receive adequate and accountability and receive adequate support from the international community. support from the international community.
What do we know?What do we know? For the first time, we have enough data to see For the first time, we have enough data to see
what progress has been made since world leaders what progress has been made since world leaders committed themselves to eradicate extreme committed themselves to eradicate extreme poverty.poverty.
The results presented in the 2007 Report suggest The results presented in the 2007 Report suggest that there have been some gains and that success that there have been some gains and that success is still possible in most parts of the world.is still possible in most parts of the world.
Encouragingly, data suggest that some progress Encouragingly, data suggest that some progress is being made even in those countries where the is being made even in those countries where the challenge is greatest and it points to some success challenge is greatest and it points to some success in building the requisite global partnership.in building the requisite global partnership.
Progress is visible in many areasProgress is visible in many areas The proportion The proportion of people living in extreme poverty fellof people living in extreme poverty fell
from nearly a third to less than one-fifth cent between from nearly a third to less than one-fifth cent between 1990 and 2004. 1990 and 2004.
The The number of extremely poor people in sub-Saharan number of extremely poor people in sub-Saharan Africa has leveled offAfrica has leveled off and the poverty rate has declined and the poverty rate has declined by nearly six percentage points since 2000.by nearly six percentage points since 2000.
Child mortality has declined globallyChild mortality has declined globally: life-saving : life-saving interventions are effective in reducing the number of interventions are effective in reducing the number of deaths due to the main killers—as demonstrated by deaths due to the main killers—as demonstrated by measles. measles.
Key interventions to Key interventions to control malariacontrol malaria have been have been expanded.expanded.
The tuberculosis The tuberculosis (TB) epidemic appears finally on the (TB) epidemic appears finally on the verge of decliningverge of declining, but progress is not fast enough to , but progress is not fast enough to halve prevalence and death rates by 2015.halve prevalence and death rates by 2015.
Progress is visible in many areasProgress is visible in many areas
Progress has been made in bringing Progress has been made in bringing more children more children to schoolto school in the developing world. Enrolment in in the developing world. Enrolment in primary education grew from 80 per cent in 1991 primary education grew from 80 per cent in 1991 to 88 per cent in 2005. to 88 per cent in 2005.
Women’s political participation has been growingWomen’s political participation has been growing, , albeit slowly. Even in countries where previously albeit slowly. Even in countries where previously only men were allowed to stand for political only men were allowed to stand for political elections, women have been elected.elections, women have been elected.
The Goals can be achieved even in very The Goals can be achieved even in very
poor countriespoor countries Many African countries are leading the way in Many African countries are leading the way in
developing national-scale programmes that have developing national-scale programmes that have yielded big results in a short time:yielded big results in a short time: agricultural productivity has been dramatically raised agricultural productivity has been dramatically raised
in Malawi;in Malawi; more children are going to primary school in Ghana, more children are going to primary school in Ghana,
Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda; Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda; malaria is being brought under control in Niger, Togo, malaria is being brought under control in Niger, Togo,
Zambia and Zanzibar; Zambia and Zanzibar; land is being reforested on a large scale in Niger;land is being reforested on a large scale in Niger; and Senegal is on track to halving the proportion of and Senegal is on track to halving the proportion of
people without access to clean water and sanitation.people without access to clean water and sanitation.
But a lot remains to be doneBut a lot remains to be done
Over half a million Over half a million women still diewomen still die each and every year each and every year from treatable and preventable complications of from treatable and preventable complications of pregnancy and childbirthpregnancy and childbirth..
If current trends continue, the target of halving the If current trends continue, the target of halving the proportion of proportion of underweight childrenunderweight children will be missed by the will be missed by the amount of 30 million, especially because of slow progress amount of 30 million, especially because of slow progress in Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.in Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
The number of The number of people dying from AIDSpeople dying from AIDS worldwide has worldwide has increased to 2.9 million in 2006 and prevention measures increased to 2.9 million in 2006 and prevention measures are failing to keep pace with the growth of the epidemic. are failing to keep pace with the growth of the epidemic. In 2005, over 15 million children had lost one or both In 2005, over 15 million children had lost one or both parents to AIDS. parents to AIDS.
The benefits of economic growth in the developing world The benefits of economic growth in the developing world have been unequally shared. have been unequally shared. Widening income inequalityWidening income inequality is of particular concern in Eastern Asia.is of particular concern in Eastern Asia.
And despite renewed commitments, aid fallsAnd despite renewed commitments, aid falls
Rich countries need to meet the long-standing Rich countries need to meet the long-standing target of devoting 0.7 per cent of their gross target of devoting 0.7 per cent of their gross national income to official development national income to official development assistance. The leading industrialized countries assistance. The leading industrialized countries pledged to double aid to Africa by 2015, at the pledged to double aid to Africa by 2015, at the G8 Summit in 2005, and have just reaffirmed G8 Summit in 2005, and have just reaffirmed this commitment at the Heiligendamm Summit. this commitment at the Heiligendamm Summit. But since then, aid to the continent and overall to But since then, aid to the continent and overall to the poorest countries, excluding debt relief and the poorest countries, excluding debt relief and humanitarian assistance, has barely increased.humanitarian assistance, has barely increased.
19.2
0.6
0.7
1.4
3.8
6.8
8.7
9.9
29.5
41.1
23.4
5.5
1.3
2
2.5
9.6
17.8
33.4
45.9
31.6
0.5
0
2.6
1.6
20.8
10.3
33
41.1
46.8
8.9
0 10 20 30 40 50
Developing regions
CIS
Transition countries of South-Eastern Europe
Northern Africa
Western Asia
South-Eastern Asia
Latin America & the Caribbean
Eastern Asia
Southern Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
1990
1999
2004
Eradicate extreme poverty & hunger
Extreme poverty Extreme poverty is beginning to is beginning to fall in sub-fall in sub-Saharan Africa, Saharan Africa, and child hunger and child hunger is declining in all is declining in all regionsregions
1
Proportion of people living on less than $1 a day, 1990 and 2004 (Percentage)
88
97
95
95
94
94
90
90
86
78
70
83
94
90
99
93
92
81
83
85
81
57
80
87
82
99
89
94
74
91
81
75
54
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Developing regions
Latin America & the Caribbean
Northern Africa
Eastern Asia
CIS, Asia
South-Eastern Asia
Southern Asia
CIS, Europe
Western Asia
Oceania
Sub-Saharan Africa 1991
1999
2005
Achieve universal primary education
Universal primary Universal primary education is in education is in sight, though sight, though children in sub-children in sub-Saharan Africa Saharan Africa trail far behindtrail far behind
2
Total net enrolment ratio in primary education, 1990/1991, 1998/1999 and 2004/2005 (Percentage)
39
51
47
42
41
39
38
32
21
20
18
36
49
44
37
38
38
28
28
16
20
13
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
World
CIS
Developed regions
Latin America & the Caribbean
Eastern Asia
South-Eastern Asia
Oceania
Sub-Saharan Africa
Western Asia
Northern Africa
Southern Asia
1990
2005
Promote gender equality and empower women
Doors to labour Doors to labour markets are markets are opening slowly opening slowly for womenfor women
3
Employees in non-agricultural wage employment who are women, 1990 and 2005 (Percentage)
83
17
17
27
31
35
41
55
63
72
82
166
106
29
27
48
54
88
78
68
80
81
126
185
0 50 100 150 200
Developing regions
Transition countries of South-Eastern Europe
CIS, Europe
Eastern Asia
Latin America & the Caribbean
Northern Africa
South-Eastern Asia
Western Asia
Oceania
CIS, Asia
Southern Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
1990
2005
Reduce child mortality
Vaccinations Vaccinations spur a decline spur a decline in measles, but in measles, but child survival child survival rates still show rates still show slow slow improvementimprovement
4
Under-five mortality rate per 1,000 live births, 1990 and 2005
57
98
89
83
75
68
66
45
38
43
96
72
40
38
60
42
30
51
0 20 40 60 80 100
Developing regions
CIS
Latin America & the Caribbean
Eastern Asia
Northern Africa
South-eastern Asia
Western Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Southern Asia 1990
2005
Improve maternal health
Health-care Health-care interventions interventions for mothers for mothers need to be need to be made more made more widely widely availableavailable
5
Proportion of deliveries attended by skilled health care personnel, 1990 and 2005 (Percentage)
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria & other diseases
Prevention Prevention measures fail to measures fail to keep pace with keep pace with the spread of the spread of HIV, while the HIV, while the need for AIDS need for AIDS treatment growstreatment grows
6
Population living with HIV in need of treatment who are receiving antiretroviral therapy, 2006 (Percentage)
28
9
10
10
26
28
35
37
49
72
0 20 40 60 80
Developing regions
Southern Asia
Oceania
CIS
Eastern Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Northern Africa
Western Asia
South-Eastern Asia
Latin America & the Caribbean
2006
30
63
47
46
39
31
20
14
3
1
31
65
50
47
39
31
27
18
14
3
1
31
68
56
50
39
30
29
16
14
3
1
26
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
World
Oceania
South-Eastern Asia
Latin America & the Caribbean
CIS
Developed regions
Sub-Saharan Africa
Eastern Asia
Southern Asia
Western Asia
Northern Africa
1990
2000
2005
Ensure environmental sustainability
Loss of old-Loss of old-growth forests growth forests continues…continues…
7
Proportion of land area covered by forests, 1990, 2000 and 2005 (Percentage)
Ensure environmental sustainability
Growing Growing greenhouse gas greenhouse gas emissions continue emissions continue to outpace to outpace advances in advances in sustainable energy sustainable energy technologiestechnologies
7
Emissions of carbon dioxide, 1990-2004 (Billions of metric tons)
12.4
12.5
0.5
0.7
1.1
1.2
1.4
2.0
2.4
5.6
6.9
9.7
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.7
1.1
1.0
3.2
2.9
<0.1<0.1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Developing regions
Developed regions
Oceania
Northern Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
South-Eastern Asia
Western Asia
Latin America & the Caribbean
Southern Asia
CIS
Eastern Asia
1990
2004
Develop a global partnership for development
Official development Official development assistance declined assistance declined between 2005 and 2006 between 2005 and 2006 and is expected to and is expected to continue to fall slightly continue to fall slightly in 2007 as debt relief in 2007 as debt relief declines further….declines further….
8
Official development assistance from developed countries, 1990-2006 (Constant 2005 United States dollars)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006(preliminary)
Net Debt Relief GrantsHumanitarian AidBilateral Development Contributions to Multilateral Organisations
40
50
60
70
80
90
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
All developingcountries
Least developedcountries
Develop a global partnership for development
……preferential preferential market access market access has stalledhas stalled
8
Proportion of imports from developing countries (excluding arms and oil) admitted to developed countries duty-free, 1996-2005 (Percentage)
Accelerating MDG implementationAccelerating MDG implementation Nationally-owned development strategies and budgets Nationally-owned development strategies and budgets
must be aligned with the MDGs. This must be backed up must be aligned with the MDGs. This must be backed up by adequate financing, including ODA where necessary, by adequate financing, including ODA where necessary, within the global partnership for development and its within the global partnership for development and its framework for mutual accountability.framework for mutual accountability.
Stronger national statistical systems and associated Stronger national statistical systems and associated capacity building are needed to achieve the MDGs.capacity building are needed to achieve the MDGs.
The UN Policy Committee has established a Task Force The UN Policy Committee has established a Task Force to monitor implementation.to monitor implementation.
The UN Secretary-General has launched a new initiative The UN Secretary-General has launched a new initiative to accelerate progress in Africa—the MDG Africa to accelerate progress in Africa—the MDG Africa Steering Group.Steering Group.