mdgs after 2015: francesca perucci united nations statistics division

MDGs after 2015:

Francesca Perucci

United Nations Statistics Division

What have we learnt?

• Address the “missing elements” of the MD

• Add the economic productive component

• Better defined goals and targets at the global and national level

• Clear, well-defined measurement framework to localize the MDGs

• Addressing inequality issues


Some of the current criticisms of the MDGs:• The goals are too ambitious• The MDG framework overlooks inequality and specific population

groups• Global targets versus national targets?• The targets under Goal 8 are not numerical and do not set any specific

deadlines• There is too much focus on health• Key elements of the MD are omitted (eg human rights)• Some targets are poorly addressed (such as women’s empowerment)• Some targets are poorly specified (slums)


• Are the indicators appropriate?• Vandemoortele’s view: “The misinterpretation of

the MDGs as one-size-fits-all targets has set the bar for sub-Saharan African countries unrealistically high.” Should different targets be set at the national level?

• Too many indicators? Too few?• Monitoring requirements are a big burden to

countries.

Monitoring progress: the adoption of the MD was a defining moment for

the development community2000:2000: Member States adopted the Millennium Declaration • The “road map” describes how these commitments would be fulfilled• The United Nations Secretariat convenes the Inter-Agency and Expert

Group on MDG Indicators (IAEG) to identify indicators to track progress

• The resulting set of goals, targets and indicators constitutes the Millennium Development Goal framework.

2005:2005: At the World Summit, world leaders committed to four new targets, in addition to those contained in the Millennium Declaration

• The IAEG identifies the additional indicators needed to monitor progress on the new targets

The MDGs as agreed framework for development

• In the “Follow-up to the outcome of the Millennium Summit”, the General Assembly requested the Secretary-General to report yearly on progress achieved towards implementing the Declaration.

• This was done based on the MDG framework

8 Goals18 Targets48 Indicators

Mapping the MDGs Foster pro-poor policy reforms, resources re-

allocation Improve monitoring of indicators

8 goals few in number Output-based Renew support for ODA Centered on people easy to communicate

18 targets, 40+ indicators Time-bound and numerical targets for accountability

Will trigger action and foster alliances

MDGs: the achievements

• The momentum generated by the MDGs

Increased awareness of development issues Increased efforts by many donors to provide the

necessary development assistance Successful targeted interventions (malaria,

HIV/AIDS, measles)Increased attention to the need for

strengthening statistical capacity

MDGs: the shortcomings

• Criticism of the MDGs

Perceived by many developing countries primarily as a “top-down” initiative

Not all goals have clear numerical targets No consensus on how progress towards the targets should be measured One-size fits all is inappropriate for countries at different levels of

development Only a subset of development issues emerging from global conferences is

included Some elements of the MD are not included Some goals are too ambitious Little or no consideration given to their implications or feasibility at the

regional or country level

• What baseline year?

MDGs Monitoring and Reporting

* Global reporting: UN-DESA

UN/DESA, based on inputs prepared by the various designated agencies in the UN system and the World Bank, IMF and OECD, coordinates the preparation of the global report

* National reporting: UNCT MDG National Reports are prepared by UN Country Teams


* Global reporting: UN-DESA The global report is used as a basis for the Secretary-General’s report to the General AssemblyObjective provide a global assessment of progress towards the achievement of MDGsTarget audience member states

* National reporting: UNCT MDG National Reports are prepared by UN Country TeamsObjective raise awareness: advocate; focus national development debate on specific priorities; build national capacity for monitoring/reporting on MDGs Target audience national policy makers, civil society, development partners


Selection of the indicators for MDG Monitoring

• Consultations among the United Nations Secretariat, IMF, the World Bank and OECD led to the selection of more than 40 indicators for the monitoring of progress towards MDGs

• Two subsequent inter-agency expert group meetings were held to further revise the millennium development goal indicators in March and April 2002



The two inter-agency expert group meetings on the Millennium Indicators:

reviewed the MDG Indicators framework discussed data availability, conceptual issues, data accuracy

and measurement problem at national level discussed geographical coverage and consistency over time

for the calculation/estimation of regional and global figures for the two benchmark years (1990 and 2000)



The two inter-agency expert group meetings on the Millennium Indicators produced the revised list of 48 Millennium Indicators. The list was adopted by all partner agencies and the UN Secretariat for the global monitoring towards the achievement of MDGs

Millennium IndicatorsWhy is the Millennium Indicator Set an

important achievement? It proved effective in building up consensus among

agencies and collaboration in data compilation It represents a first significant step in the search for

harmonization and rationalization of development indicators within the UN system

It is a goal/target-oriented list and so provides policy-oriented statistics

It provides a framework for coordination among and within international organizations and between international organizations and countries, for statistical capacity-building

Millennium IndicatorsFrom the Millennium Indicator Set to

country-relevant indicatorsThere is concern on:The selection of the indicators and their relevance

to the targetsHow to make MDG indicators relevant to and

applicable at the country levelThe availability and quality of data necessary for

the MDG indicators

Millennium IndicatorsThe selection of the indicators and their relevance

to the targets: a few examples

Goal 3. Promote gender equality and empower women

Target 4. Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and to all levels of education no later than 2015

Ind. 11 - Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector (ILO)

The target does not address the whole spectrum of the goal.

The indicator does not have a clear link with the target.

The indicator is not completely adequate to address gender equality in the labour market. Other variables would need to be considered, such as working conditions, the levels of remuneration and wage differentials, labour legislation and social benefits, full-time versus part-time jobs, the status in employment, the importance of the informal sector/home-based work in the country, etc.

Millennium IndicatorsThe selection of the indicators and their relevance

to the targets: a few examples

Goal 8. Develop a global partnership for development

Target 16.In cooperation with developing countries, develop and implement strategies for decent and productive work for youth

Ind. 45 - Unemployment rate of 15-to-24-year-olds, each sex and total (ILO)

Unemployment is but one dimension of the employment problems faced by young people. A large number of young women and men in many countries are underemployed – either working fewer hours than they would like to, or working long hours for little economic gain. Also, economic stagnation and declining opportunities in the formal sector have resulted in a shift to work in the informal sector or in unpaid house-based work.

Millennium Indicators

• The process of selection of MDG Indicators had the main purpose of reaching a global consensus on ways of measuring and assessing progress in achieving development goals

• MDG Indicators for national reporting should be tailored to countries’ needs and circumstances

Millennium Indicators

MDG Indicators for national reporting should be developed taking into account:

• Gender perspectives• Differences among socio-economic and/or

ethnic groups• Specific country’s circumstances in all

spheres (such as health, education and the economy)

Millennium IndicatorsHow to make MDG indicators relevant to and applicable at

the country level: a few examples

Goal 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Target 1. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day

Ind. 1 - Proportion of population below $1(PPP) per day (World Bank)

At the country level it may be more relevant to consider the different dimensions of poverty, including not only market-based consumption, but also the public provision of goods and services, access to resources, aspects related to a satisfactory life, levels of education, health and mortality, etc.

This conceptualization may be more instrumental in understanding the conditions of social and economic deprivation and its gender dimension and be more informative for policy makers.



Goal 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Target 2. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

Ind. 4 - Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age (UNICEF - WHO)

There are countries where child malnutrition concerns only specific population groups/geographical areas. The global indicator therefore has no relevance unless appropriately disaggregated. Other specific aspects of child nutrition and well-being may be considered.



Goal 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Target 8. Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases

Ind. 21 - Prevalence and death rates associated with malaria (WHO)

Ind. 22 - Proportion of population in malaria risk areas using effective malaria prevention and treatment measures (UNICEF - WHO)

Malaria represents a major disease when considering its toll on the world’s population or the population of specific regions and sub-regions. In most countries, however, other aspects of human health should be considered.

Millennium IndicatorsThe availability and quality of data necessary

for the MDG indicators

Problems with data for MDG Indicators are related to:

Lack of international standards Failure in adopting international standards at the national

level Measurement problems National programmes not fully developed in specific

statistical areas New statistical areas, with recent methodological

development

Data availability for MDG Indicators: an example

Goal 1 - Eradicate extreme poverty and hungerNumber of countries with data for the MDG Indicators

43 43

61

70

20 0 1 0

51

0

20

40

60

80

100

Proportion ofpopulation below$1 (PPP) per day

(WB)

Poverty gap ratio(WB)

Share of poorestquintile in nationalconsumption (WB)

Prevalence ofunderw eight

children under 5(UNICEF)

Proportion ofundernourishedpopulation (FAO)

Indicators

% o

f c

ou

ntr

ies

wit

h d

ata

1 year only

2 or moreyears

Strengthening statistical capacity

• The national reporting mechanisms – MDG country reports– can help identify areas where efforts to strengthen statistical capacity are most needed

• One important outcome of the preparation of the MDG National Reports will be improved national capacity for national monitoring of MDGs

This will help raise awareness on the need to produce policy-oriented statistics, that is, statistics to address specific goals and targets

Conclusions

Keeping the global and national monitoring close together will help

• Identify and correct differences and inconsistencies in statistics and indicators as presented at country level and in the global report/database

• Incorporate inputs from countries in the global picture• Identify areas for improvement in statistics and

channel resources and interventions of development partners towards them

Millennium Indicators Databasemillenniumindicators.un.org

United Nations Statistics Division

Millennium Indicators Database

In close collaboration with United Nations agencies and funds, the World Bank, IMF, and OECD, UNSD maintains the database containing the series related to the selected indicators, as well as other background series intended to supplement the basic 48 Millennium indicators for more in-depth analysis.


The figures presented in the database are from international series compiled by the various agencies.

The availability of data necessary to calculate the indicators depends on the availability and quality of data in countries

When country data are not available or are affected by serious quality problems international agencies provide adjusted data or estimates

Coverage

1 year

only 2 or more years

GOAL 1 - Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day (WB) 82 0

Poverty gap ratio (WB) 82 0

Share of poorest quintile in national consumption (WB) 116 1

Prevalence of underweight children under 5 (UNICEF) 133 0

Proportion of undernourished population (FAO) 3 97

Coverage

1 year


GOAL 2 - Achieve universal primary education

Net enrolment ratio in primary education (UNESCO) 33 118

Prop. pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5 (UNESCO) 18 87

Literacy rates of 15-24 years old (UNESCO) 0 136

Coverage

1 year

only

2 or more years

GOAL 3 - Promote gender equality and empower women

Girls to boys ratio, primary level enrolment (UNESCO) 11 200

Girls to boys ratio, secondary level enrolment (UNESCO) 16 192

Girls to boys ratio, tertiary level enrolment (UNESCO) 23 151

Ratio of female over male literacy rates, aged 15-24 (UNESCO) 0 136

Share of women in wage employment/non-agriculture (ILO) 0 40

Women in parliamentary seats, per cent (IPU) 6 174

Coverage

1 year


GOAL 4 - Reduce child mortality

Children under five mortality rate per 1,000 live births (UNICEF) 2 191

Infant mortality rate (0-1 year) per 1,000 live births (UNICEF) 2 191

Children 1 year old immunized against measles % (UNICEF) 4 183

Coverage

1 year

only

2 or more years

GOAL 5 - Improve maternal health

Maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births (WHO) 183 0

Births attended by skilled health personnel, per cent (UNICEF) 157 0

Coverage

1 year only 2 or more yearsGOAL 6 - Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria

and other diseases HIV prevalence among pregnant women (UNAIDS) 104 0 Condom use rate of the contraceptive prevalence rate data being compiled

AIDS orphans, cumulative (UNAIDS) 73 0 Malaria notified cases per 100,000 population (WHO) 109 0 Malaria death rate per 100,000, all ages (WHO) 191 0 % pop. <5 with fever being treated with anti-malarial drugs (UNICEF) 32 0 % use of insecticide-treated bed nets, in population <5 (UNICEF) 32 0 Tuberculosis prevalence rate per 100,000 population (WHO) 191 0 Tuberculosis death rate per 100,000 (WHO) 191 0 Proportion of cases detected and cured under DOTS (WHO) 141 0

Coverage

1 year 2 or more

only years

GOAL 7 - Ensure environmental sustainability Forested land area as percentage of land area (FAO estimates) 0 198Ratio of protected areas to surface (UNSD calculated from UNEP) 198 0Energy use (Kg oil equivalent) per $1000 (PPP) GDP (WB) 0 121Carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), per capita (UNFCCC-CDIAC) 4 213Ozone-depleting CFCs consumption (UNEP-Ozone Secretariat) 0 151

Proportion of population using solid fuels (WHO) Data being compiled% pop. with access to improved water sources, urban (UNICEF) 76 86% pop. with access to improved water sources, rural (UNICEF) 77 84% urban pop. with access to improved sanitation (UNICEF) 70 87Proportion of households with access to secure tenure (Habitat) n.a n.a


The database also contains the global and regional figures that have been used in the preparation of the Secretary-General’s report: Implementation of the United Nations Millennium Declaration, A/57/270


In order to help focus analysis and assessment of progress at the country level, the Millennium indicators and background data series are also organized and presented by country in Millennium country profiles


Metadata are also an important component of the database. At this stage, the information includes definitions and sources for each of the indicators presented.

More inputs from specialized agencies, on methodologies and related problems, will be included in the near future

mdgs after 2015: francesca perucci united nations statistics division

Documents

national targets

different targets

new targets

clear numerical targets

monitoring of indicators

additional indicators

indicators time

indicators appropriate