THE FUTURE OF ELECTRICITY Roger Duncan

April 19, 2013

EVERYTHING

IS

ENERGY

STEAM TURBINE GAS TURBINE

COMPRESSION-

IGNITION ICE SPARK-IGNITION ICE

ELECTRICITY PLANES

SHIPPING CARS & TRUCKS

STEAM TURBINE GAS TURBINE

COMPRESSION-

IGNITION ICE SPARK-IGNITION ICE

COAL

GAS

NUCLEAR

BIOMASS

NATURAL

GAS

KEROSENE

GASOLINE DIESEL

Charles

Parson

s

1884

Nicolau

s Otto

1876

Rudolp

h Diesel

1893

John

Barber

1791

WIND GENERATOR

Charles

F. Brush

1888

SOLAR CELL

Charles

Fritts

1883

FUEL CELL

William

Robert

Grove

1839

Conventional Energy

System

Fossil Fuel Power

Plant Office Building

Petroleum

Vehicle

Unified Energy

System

Zero Energy Home

PHEV/BEV Distributed Utility

Fossil Fuels

Solar Wind

Nuclear

Energy Conversion

Megatrends

When (Time)

Who (Decision-

makers)

Why (Workloads)

Where (Location)

How (Technology)

What (Fuels)

What (Fuels)

Decarbonizatio

n

Fossil Fuels Renewable Energy

What (Fuels)

From Few To

Many

OIL

GAS

COAL

NUCLEA

R

HYDRO

WIND

SOLAR GEOTHERM

AL

BIOFUEL

SYNTHETI

C LIQUID

OCEAN

What (Fuels)

The Transition Will Be

Slow

Slow Transition to

Renewables?

Energy transitions take decades, if not

centuries

Large sunk investments in current system

Extensive and expensive new infrastructure

requirements

Persistence and adaptability of established prime

movers

Skilled labor

requirements

Distributed Solar is

the exception to

the rule

14 April 29, 2013

Duncan/Webber

UT Austin

Technology Megatrend

More productivity from less material

“Accelerating

Ephemeralization”

– Fuller

“Law of

Accelerating

Returns” –

Kurzweil

“Moore’s Law” –

Moore

Nanotechnology and Energy

Low cost solar cells

Hydrogen production from water

Graphene

Solid state lighting

Super strong lightweight materials

Transmission lines

Energy Storage

Technology Megatrend

More productivity from less motion –

Principle of Least Action

Pierre-Louis

Moreau de

Maupertuis

Leonhard Euler Gottfried Wilhelm

Leibniz

Technology Megatrend

Why (Workloads)

Electrification of

transportation system Computer loads

Robotics Electrification of industrial

processes

Increase space used

Decentralization

Where (Location)

When (Time)

Shifting the time of both energy conversion and

consumption is a game changer for utilities,

transportation and buildings

Embedded Intelligence

24 April 29, 2013

Duncan/Webber

UT Austin

Energy Megatrends

result in energy

efficiency and

automation

Who (Decision-

makers)

Changing utility business models

The New Prosumer

Artificial Intelligence

Sam Insull

Traditional Business Model

Centralized Power

Plants

Transmission and

Distribution

System

Volume Regulated

Monopoly

Centralized

power for

industry

Future Business Models

Services

vs.

Commodity

Broker of

distributed

power

Smaller,

discrete

companies

Energy

storage and

ancillary

service

companies

Future Utility Business Models

Energy Service Utility

Smart Integrator

Power Quality protection

Broker of energy sales

Coordination and Integration

among multiple suppliers and

distributed generation

Future Role of Grid

Moving energy among storage

and demand

The New Prosumer

We produce

more of what we

consume

Building owners

will be both

buyers and

sellers of

electricity

Dynamic pricing

will be key

Computer

interface will

develop as

“decision

maker”

Robotics and Energy

Manufacturing

Service Robots

Domestic Robots

Building construction

New energy loads

Ubiquitous sensing, computing,

automation

SAM

Sentient Appearing Machines

Energy Systems of the Far

Future

Multiple Energy Sources Ubiquitous Sensing

and Computing

Highly Integrated

between buildings,

transportation and

generation sources

Zero Carbon

Complex Prosumer

relationships

Sentient Appearing

buildings and

machines

Utility of the Future

Zero Energy Home

PHEV/BEV Distributed Utility

Fossil Fuels

Solar Wind

Nuclear

Questions