thayer vietnam political developments in 2009

8/14/2019 Thayer Vietnam Political Developments in 2009

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Political Legitimacy of the OnePolitical Legitimacy of the One--PartyParty

State: Challenges and ResponsesState: Challenges and Responses

Carlyle A. ThayerCarlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to Vietnam Update 2009Presentation to Vietnam Update 2009

Canberra, November 19Canberra, November 19--20,200920,2009


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lin f Pr n i nlin f Pr n i n

Political Legitimacy

Political Legitimacy

Bauxite Mining Controversy

Bauxite Mining Controversy

Catholic land issues

Catholic land issues

Crackdown on PoliticalDissent

Crackdown on PoliticalDissent


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P li i l L i imP li i l L i im

Normative status conferred on political

leaders, governing institutions, anddecisions by those who are governed

Embodies notions of moral authoritySources:

Charismatic

Traditional

Rational-le al and erformance


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1. Bauxite Minin Controvers1. Bauxite Minin Controvers

10th Party

Congress Framework

CHALCO

CHALCO Politburo

approval

5-year Socio-

5-year Socio-

November2006

No. 167

Prime MinistersPrime Ministers

conom c anconom c an,

1, 2007,

1, 2007


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Location of bauxite

mine sites: DakNong and Lam


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Bauxite Minin Time LineBauxite Minin Time Line

Prime

Politburo

Petition of135

intellectuals

Ministerorders

review 30th

HanoiSeminar onbauxite and

rev ewsbauxiteissue 16th

April

vNationalAssembly17th April

V NguynGip openletter 5th

2nd openletter byGip 9th

April

anuary


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Bauxite Minin ControversBauxite Minin Controvers

V Nguyn Gip(May 7)

National Assembly (May 27)

Deputy Nguyn MinhThuyt, Son La province,

I hope you pay attention to bauxite

mining in the Central Highlands


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AntiAnti--Bauxite CoalitionBauxite Coalition

EnvironmentalistsEnvironmentalists Retired stateofficialsRetired stateofficials Social scientistsSocial scientists

Retired militarRetired militar Other academicsOther academicsc en s sc en s s

officers

officers

& intellectuals

& intellectuals

EconomistsEconomistsGeneral Vo

Nguyen GiapGeneral Vo

Nguyen GiapSome NADeputiesSome NADeputies


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Other AntiOther Anti--Bauxite O onentsBauxite O onents

Lawsuit in

Catholic priests-

Pastoral Letter byCardinal PhamMinh Man,Archbishop of

Hanoi PeoplesCourt andPeoples

Supreme Court,June 11, July 3

Thich QuangDo, UBCV,opposes

petition, April,

bauxite mining,May 31

Facebookand blogsites raise

auxitemining,March 29

China issues2009


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R nR n

nv ronmenta concerns an mpact onethnic minorities to be taken into account

National Assembly limited to questions

Chinese company fined

Bauxite mining to proceed


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2. Catholic Land Issues2. Catholic Land Issues

u y nc en a am

Ta Church, Quang Binhprovince - 11 arrested

ege po ce ruta ty

Gangs assault Catholics

rc estrate campa gn ystate media

26 July & 2 August

at o cs stage massprotests in 3 provinces

8 August 178 parishes inVinh diocese hold protests


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Tam Ta ProtestsTam Ta Protests


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Catholic Bishops call for dialogue with Government

.

committed to working for good of country.


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3. Crackdown on Dissent3. Crackdown on Dissent

9th Plenum Central Committee of the Vietnam

-

Difficulties: acts of sabotage by hostile forces

T Huy Ra appointed to Politburo. Secretary of the VCP Central Committee and head

of Commission on Information and Education(Popularization and Education, Propaganda ad

.


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TrTrnn HuHu nhnh DuDu ThThcc

Connection Internet Avid blogger

Plotted to set up

political party to replace

Charged with spreadingro a anda a ainst the

stateFrench trained information

technology specialist arrested

ay


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L CnL Cn nhnh In contact with Viet Tan

and Vietnam Democratic

Party

Avid blogger

Japanese ODA and award

of bauxite contract

Raised questionsmer can ra ne awyerarrested June 13

China


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TrTrn Khn Khi Thanh Thi Thanh Th

Novelist, poet, essayistwho wrote on Internet,edited To Quoc

2006 subject toarassmen an pu c

denunciation

9th October


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Pro-Democracy

Banners

Hai Phong 16 Aug 08 (above) and Hai

Hanoi 28 Jul 08


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Nguyn Tin Trung


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,,and Vand V HngHng

Tried and convicted September 2009


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Blo ers & Journalists Tar etedBlo ers & Journalists Tar eted Huy c, blogged under name Osin, fired

from Si Gn Ti p Th newspaper

Bi Thanh Hiu blo ed as N i Bun Gi(Wind Trader) arrested in August

,

partition, critical of Chinese territorial claims

Nguy n Ngc Nh Qunh, blogged undername M Nm (Mother Mushroom)


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Chinese Unilateral Fishing Ban

Ma 16-Au ust 1 2009


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General Directorate IIGeneral Directorate II


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Political Im licationsPolitical Im licationsAnti-Anti-

bauxitecoalitionbauxitecoalitioneo ogy

& Securityeo ogy

& Securitynt -

Chinesent -

Chinese

MinisterMinister


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Towards the 11Towards the 11

thth

Con ress Januar 2011Con ress Januar 2011


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In r r in P li iIn r r in P li i

Long Le three distinct groups

StratFor factional in-fighting

Alex Vuving modernisers v- anti-imperialists

Ed Malesky winning coalitions must be fashioned

by a national party congress; patronage rules!


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P rf rmP rf rm

Party-StateLegitimacy

BauxiteMiningI

Anti-Chinese

nationalism


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ConclusionConclusion

bauxite

miningissue

bauxite

miningissue

TheChinesequestion

TheChinesequestion


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Political Legitimacy of the OnePolitical Legitimacy of the One--PartyParty

State: Challenges and ResponsesState: Challenges and Responses

Carlyle A. ThayerCarlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to Vietnam Update 2009Presentation to Vietnam Update 2009

Canberra, November 19Canberra, November 19--20,200920,2009

thayer vietnam political developments in 2009

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