thayer us-vietnam defence relations

8/7/2019 Thayer US-Vietnam Defence Relations

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The Outlook for US-Vietnam Relations

Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to East-West Center

Washington, DCMarch 23, 2011


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China-Vietnam

Cambodian Conflict 1979-91 1990-91 Normalization 1999-2000 Comprehensive

Cooperation in the NewCentury

2005 bilateral defenceconsultations

2009 strategic cooperativepartnership

2010 November 1st StrategicDefence Security Dialogue

United States-Vietnam

Vietnam War 1965-75 1995 Normalization 2001 Bilateral Trade Agrm. 2004 annual defence

dialogue

June 2005 IMETAgreement and intelligencesharing counter-terrorism

2008 1st Political, Securityand Defense Dialogue

2010 August Defense PolicyDialogue


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$12 billion

deficitwith

China

$9 billion

surpluswith theUS

Economic

and TradeRela:ons


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China-Vietnam

2002-10 six visits byVietnamese Defence Minister

and two return visits byChinese Defence Minister

Equal exchanges by chiefs ofGeneral Staff, GPD andGLD (political/logistics)

Exchanges by MilitaryRegion Commanders


2000-10 two visits by U.S.Secretary of Defense andtwo visits by Vietnamese

Defence Minister

2003 turning point 1994-2010: nine visits by

Commander U.S. PacificCommand


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China-Vietnam

2000 Gulf of Tonkindelineation and FisheriesAgreement

Nov. 2001 PLAN JiangweiII guided missile frigatevisits Ho Chi Minh City

Nov. 2008 PLAN trainingship Zheng Hevisits Ho ChiMinh City


2003 USS Vandergrift,HCMC

2004 USS CurtisWilbur, DaNang

2005 USS Gary, HCMC 2006 USS Patriotand USS

Salvor, HCMC


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China-Vietnam

Dec. 2009 PLA ships ChengHaiand Chao YangvisitHaiphong

April 2006-May 2010 ninejoint naval patrols conductedin Gulf of Tonkin

May 2010 joint China-VietnamSearch and Rescue Exercise(SAREX)

November 2010 PLAN frigatevisits Da Nang


2007 USS Peleliu, Da Nang; andUSS Patriotand USS Guardian, HaiPhong

2008 USNS Mercy, Nha Trang andUSS Mustin, Da Nang 2009 USNS Bruce Heezen, Da Nang;

USNS Safeguard, Ho Chi Minh City;USS Blue Ridgeand USS Lassen, DaNang

2010 USNS Richard E. Byrd, HonKhoi Port; USNS Mercy, Qui Nhon;USS John S. McCain, Da Nang


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1st Joint Naval Engagement

Activities (Aug 2010)

15th Anniversary of US-Vietnam Diplomatic Relations

USS John S. McCain makes port call Da Nang


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USS George Washington Aug 2010

USS John D. Stennis

April 2009

USS Jacksonville (SSN 699),

Pacific Command, Dec 2009

USS George H.W. Bush Aug 2010


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Access to Cam Ranh Bay

Three Nos

1. No military alliances2. No foreign military bases onVietnamese territory3. No use of third countries to combat

another country


10/20

China-Vietnam

Extensive discussions onarmy-building

Under consideration: Exchanges in personnel

training

Vietnamese participationat National Defence

University Disaster relief


Extended IMET Foreign Military Training: FY2003 & 2004 = nil FY2004 N = 20 (13 at APCSS) FY2005 17 (9 at APCSS and 8

IMET).

IMET English language andmedical training


11/20

China-Vietnam

Demining along landborder

Agreement on land border(1999) and subsequent

demarcation


MIA-POW full accounting Demining and UXE Agent Orange joint research Humanitarian assistance and

disaster relief (flood control)

Counter-terrorism

Military medicine research(HIV/AIDS)


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Vietnam-United States

2003 Vietnamese observersat COBRA GOLD

May 2007 Vietnameseobservers at Western PacificNaval Symposium

2007-08 Vietnameseobservers at annual mid-

year US-Southeast Asiabilateral joint exercises


1997 Proposed: tacticaldiscussions and joint trainingexchanges in jungle warfare

2002: counter drug trafficking 2007: send US officers and

cadets to train in Vietnamese

universities 2009 participation in SAR

exercise?


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China-Vietnam

2005 NORINCO ammunitionfor small arms and artillery,

military vehicles, and co-production ammunition andheavy machine guns

2005 Defence Ministers discussNDI cooperation

2005 Chinas Commission forScience, Technology andIndustry visits Vietnam


1994 CINCPAC proposesequipment exchanges/sales

2003 David Lamb, LAT,attractive arms market

2005 US Ambassador: repairand maintenance mooted, USNto purchase supplies

2006 Seretary RumsfieldVietnam to buy military spareparts


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China-Vietnam

2008 Vietnamese DeputyDefence Minister holdsdiscusisons with ChinasCommission for Science,Technology and Industry inBeijing; suggestscooperation in personneltraining, frontier and

coastal defence and otherfields


2006 Sec State sale, lease,export or transfer non-lethaldefence articles and defenceservices authorized

2006 PresidentialMemorandum Vietnameligible under ForeignAssistance Act of 1961; but

excluded from lethal enditems or their components,


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non-lethal crowd control devicesand night vision devices.

2007 InternationalTrafficking in ArmsRegulations amended toallow trade with Vietnam oncase by case basis

2007 U.S.-ASEAN BusinessCouncil opens office inHanoi


2007: U.S.-ASEANBusiness Council hosts visitto Hanoi by U.S. Defense

and Security Corporate

Executive Delegation (ITT,

Aerospace, Lockheed

Martin, Northrop

Grumman, Oracle)


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Attended meeting of Proliferation Security Initiativeheld in New Zealand

2004 Attended CHOD meeting (Asia-Pacific Chiefs ofDefence) for first time, Tokyo

U.S. Global Threat Reduction Initiative Shangri-La Dialogue (2008) US Chairman JCS met with Vietnam representative


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ASEAN

China

USA

NewZealand

Japan

India

SouthKorea

Australia

Russia


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Plus USA & Russia


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Vietnams Strategic Significance

1. South China Sea littoral state2. Emerging middle income country3. Gradual defence modernisation4. Key player in ASEAN5. Key player in regional architecture6. Potential strategic partner of US


20/20

The Outlook for US-Vietnam Relations

Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to East-West Center

Washington, DCMarch 23, 2011

thayer us-vietnam defence relations

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