thayer vietnam: russian defence minister bears arms

7/29/2019 Thayer Vietnam: Russian Defence Minister Bears Arms

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Background Briefing:

Vietnam: Russian DefenceMinister Bears Arms

Carlyle A. Thayer

March 5, 2013

[client name deleted]

Regarding the RussianDefense Ministers visits

to Myanmar and

Vietnam, could you

address the following

specific questions?

1) Could you provide an

assessment of the recent

visits to Myanmar and Vietnam by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu?

ANSWER: The visit by Russias Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu is a significant event

signaling renewed Russian interest in East Asia. It should be recalled that when

Vietnam hosted the inaugural meeting of the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus

in October 2010 the then Russian Defence Minister did not attend. He sent his

deputy. Shoigu became defence minister in November 2012 after the ADMM Plus

meeting.

The main purpose of Shoigus visit was to encourage further arms procurements by

Myanmar and Vietnam. Vietnam is one of Russias top arms export destinations.

Since 2008 Vietnam has placed orders for stealth frigates, Kilo-class conventional

submarines, coastal missile defence systems, twenty Su-30MK fighter aircraft, and

weapon systems for these platforms. Reportedly, the two defence ministersdiscussed the current status of arms expected to be delivered to Vietnam as well as

future defence procurements including up to 24 Su-30MK2 fighters, additional S-300

advanced air defence missile systems, military helicopters and two Gepardstealth

frigates.

2) The talks between Vietnamese and Russian Defense Ministers mentioned the

potential return to Cam Ranh base by Russias Pacific fleet. The Philippines has

already publicly invited the US to assist the settlement of disputes in the South China

Sea. Currently, Vietnam is expanding defense cooperation with Russia. With the

involvement of the US and Russia, as a counterbalance to China, is it possible to say

that Russias return to Cam Ranh is a turning point in territorial disputes in the SouthChina Sea?

Thayer ConsultancyABN # 65 648 097 123

Meeting of Vietnamese and Russian Defence officials


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ANSWER: In 2010 Vietnam asked Russia to assist in upgrading the naval facilities at

Cam Ranh Bay mainly in order to service the Kilo submarines when they are

delivered. Top Vietnamese officials noted that Russia would be accorded special

treatment because of its status as a strategic partner. In July 2012 the bilateral

relationship was raised to a comprehensive strategic partnership in part due to

closer defence cooperation through increase military sales.

Since the Russian withdrawal from Cam Ranh Bay in 2000, Vietnam has consistently

maintained a policy of three nos. Vietnams 2004 Defence White Paper stated, for

example, Vietnam consistently advocates neither joining any military alliance nor

giving any foreign countries permission to have military bases in Vietnam. Vietnam

will never take part in any military activity that uses forces or threatens to use force

against any other country The three nos policy was repeated in the 2009 Defence

White Paper that declared, Vietnam consistently advocates neither joining any

military alliances nor giving any other countries permission to have military bases or

use its soil to carry out military activities against other countries.

There is no possibility that the Russian Fleet will be permitted to set up a base at

Cam Ranh Bay. Russian naval personnel and support ships will be permitted to

upgrade the naval facilities at Cam Ranh. The Vietnamese government has declared

that the commercial repair facilities at Cam Ranh are open to all countries. The

United States has used these facilities to repair non-combat vessels. Russia could do

so as well

Russian warships, like Chinas navy, have called in at Vietnamese ports on return

from anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden. So far Vietnam has not opened Cam

Ranh Bay to such naval port visits.

If Russian naval ships return to Southeast Asian waters in greater numbers they will

not do so to contain China. Russia, like other maritime powers, has a stake in

freedom of navigation. Russia will react to any challenge to this freedom in the same

way that the United States, Japan and India have done by asserting Russian rights

under international law.

3) Myanmar has recently opened up to foreign countries. Russia has so far had

almost no presence in the Southeast Asian country. What do you think about the visit

to Myanmar by the Russian Defense Minister?

ANSWER: Myanmar is still subject to an arms sale embargo by the United States and

European Union. Since 2008, Russia has sold combat and transport helicopters, jet

fighter aircraft and air-to-air missiles. China and India are competitors for arms

purchases by Myanmar. The visit by Russias Defence Minister was to determine its

future military equipment needs and to encourage Myanmar to buy more Russian

weapons and equipment.

4) Could you forecast regional development in the near-term future, after Russia

returns to Cam Ranh, especially relating to the South China Sea? How will China

react?

ANSWER: It is my assessment that Russia is not seeking a permanent naval presence

at Cam Ranh Bay to exert influence in the South China Sea. Nor is Russia seeking tocontain China. Vietnam is unlikely to change it long-standing policy of three nos.


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Russia sells weapons to both China

and Vietnam, for example Su-30 MK

jet fighters and Kilo-class

submarines. In public Chinese

officials state that such sales are the

internal matter of the countries

concerned. In private Chinese

defence officials realize that Russian

arms sales to Vietnam increase

Vietnams capacity for self-defence.

It is argued by security analysts that

Vietnam is developing its own anti-

access/area denial strategy in the

same way China is developing this strategy against the United States. China will have

to be wary once Vietnam fully incorporates its six Kilo submarines into its navy and

begins submarine operations in the South China Sea.

There are problems in Sino-Russian weapons sales because China has stolen Russian

technology and incorporated it in Chinas weapons system. This has led Russia to

restrict sales to China. China has little leverage because it needs the very best

Russian military technology.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Russian Defence Minister Bears

Arms, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, March 5, 2013.

Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs are archived at Scribd.com

Defence Minister Shoigu and President Truong Tan Sang


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Transfers of major conventional weapons: sorted by recipient. Deals withdeliveries or orders made for year range 2008 to 201 1Note: The 'No. delivered/produced' and the 'Year(s) of deliveries' columns refer to all deliveries since the beginning of the contract. Deals in which therecipient was involved in the production of the weapon system are listed separately. The 'Comments' column includes publicly reported information on thevalue of the deal. Information on the sources and methods used in the collection of the data, and explanations of the conventions, abbreviations and acronyms,can be found at URL . The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database is continuously updated as new informationbecomes available.Source: SIPRI Arms Transfers DatabaseInformation generated: 06 March 2013


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Recipient/ Year Yearts) No.supplier (S) ~ o Weapon Weapon of order/ of delivered/or licenser (L) ordered designation description licence deliveries produced Comments

Viet Na mS: Russia (400) Igla-I/SA-16 Gimlet Portable SAM ( 1996) 1999-20 II (340) SA-N-IO version for BPS-500 (Ho-A) and

Project-I 0412 (Svetlyak) patrol craft and probablyProjeet-1241 (Tarantul) FAC

(400) Kh-35 LJran/SS-N-25 Anti-ship missile 2004 2008-2011 (83) For Project-I 1661 (Gcpard) frigates andProjeet-1241 (Tarantul) FAC

(200) 9M311/SA-19 Grison SA M (2006) 2011 (200) For Kashtan CIWS on 2 Gepard frigates2 Gepard-3 Frigate 2006 2011 2 Part of $300 m deal: Vietnamese designation Dinh

Tien Hoang(2) K-300P Bastion-P Coast defence system 2007 2009-2011 (2) Pan of $300 m deal

4 Projeet-I0412/Svetlyak Patrol craft 2007 2011 (2) Delivery from 2011-2012(40) Yakhont/SS-N-26 Anti-ship missile 2007 2009-2011 (40) Part ot$300 m deal: for Bastion coastal defence

system(40) 3M-54 Klub/SS-N-27 Anti-ship MI/SSM (2009) For Projeet-636 (Kilo) submarines

KAB-500!l500 Guided Bomb (2009) 2011 (100)(80) Kh-3IAI/AS-17 Anti-ship missile (2009) 2011 (40) For Su-30MK2 combat aircraft: inc! Kh-31 P

anti-randar version6 Projeet-636E/Kilo Submarine (2009) $1.8-2.1 b deal; delivery probably 2014-20 \6/20 \ 7

(250) R-73/AA-II Archer SRAAM (2009) 2010-2011 (150) For Su-30MK2 combat aircraft8 Su-30MKlFlanker FG A aircraft 2009 2010-2011 8 $400-500 m deal; Su-30MK2V version

12 Su-30MKlFlanker FGA aircraft 2010 2011 (2) $\ b deal: Su-30MK2V version2 Gepard-3 Frigate 2011

-------------------- - ---- -----------_.. - - - ------L: Russia (10) Project-l 241/Tarantul FAC (2004) 2008 2 Project-12418 (Tarantul-5) version: incl 8 produced

in Viet Nam: delivery 2008-2016


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Background Briefing:

Vietnam: Russian DefenceMinister Pays Visit

Carlyle A. Thayer

March 5, 2013

[client name deleted]

What is your assessment of Russias Defence Minister General Shoigu's visit toVietnam, ending today? Some reports state he is here because Vietnam wants to

upgrade its military capacity to deal with an increasingly aggressive China. Other

reports indicate his visit is more of a courtesy call.

ANSWER: Officially, the visit of Russias Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to Vietnam

and Myanmar is to discuss regional security issues and military-technical

cooperation. The main purpose of Shoigus visit to Vietnam is to encourage further

arms procurements and to discuss Russias upgrading of naval facilities at Cam Ranh

Bay. Vietnam is one of Russias top arms export destinations. Since 2008 . Vietnam

has placed orders for stealth frigates, Kilo-class conventional submarines, coastal

missile defence systems, twenty Su-30MK fighter aircraft, and weapon systems forthese platforms. Reportedly, the two defence ministers discussed the current status

of arms expected to be delivered to Vietnam as well as future defence procurements

including up to 24 Su-30MK2 fighters, additional S-300 advanced air defence missile

systems, military helicopters and two Gepardstealth frigates.

In 2010 Vietnam asked Russia to assist in upgrading the naval facilities at Cam Ranh

Bay mainly in order to service the Kilo submarines when they are delivered. Top

Vietnamese officials noted that Russia would be accorded special treatment because

of its status as a strategic partner. In 2012 the strategic partnership was upgraded to

a comprehensive strategic partnership in recognition of Vietnams arms purchases

that place it among Russias top arms export markets. Russia is expected to deliver

the first of six Kilo-class submarines this year. Vietnam would like Russia to

modernize its current naval base to include service facilities for the subs.

Far from being a courtesy call, Defence Minister Shoigus visit to Myanmar and

Vietnam is a significant event signaling renewed Russian interest in East Asia. It

should be recalled that when Vietnam hosted the inaugural meeting of the ASEAN

Defence Ministers Meeting Plus in October 2010 the then Russian Defence Minister

did not attend. He sent his deputy. Shoigu became defence minister in November

2012 after the ADMM Plus meeting.

Thayer ConsultancyABN # 65 648 097 123


7/13

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Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Russian Defence Minister Pays

Visit, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, March 5, 2013.

Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs are archived at Scribd.com


8/13

Transfers of major conventional weapons: sorted by supplier. Deals withdeliveries or orders made for year range 2008 to 2011

Note: The No. delivered/produced and the Year(s) of deliveries columns refer to all deliveries since the beginning of the contract. Deals in which the

recipient was involved in the production of the weapon system are listed separately. The Comments column includes publicly reported information on the

value of the deal. Information on the sources and methods used in the collection of the data, and explanations of the conventions, abbreviations and acronyms,can be found at URL . The SIPRI Arms Transfers Database is continuously updated as new information

becomes available.

Source: SIPRI Arms Transfers Database

Information generated: 04 March 2013

Supplier/ Year Year(s) No.

recipient (R) No. Weapon Weapon of order/ of delivered/

or licenser (L) ordered designation description licence deliveries produced Comments

RussiaR: Myanmar 2 An-148 Transport aircraft 2009 Status uncertain

(50) Mi-24P/Hind-F Combat helicopter 2009 2010-2011 (16) Possibly ex-Russian; Mi-35P

version

14 MiG-29/Fulcrum-A Fighter aircraft 2009 2011 (6) Part of $570 m deal; incl 4

MiG-29UB; delivery 2011-2012

6 MiG-29S/Fulcrum-C FGA aircraft 2009 Part of $570 m deal; delivery probably 2012

12 Mi-2/Hoplite Light helicopter (2010)

(80) R-27/AA-10 Alamo BVRAAM (2010) 2011 (25) For MiG-29 combat aircraft

(125) R-73/AA-11 Archer SRAAM (2010) 2011 (40) For MiG-29 combat aircraft


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Liu Nga c tr li Cam Ranh?

Mc Lm, bin tp vin RFAMarch 5, 2013

B trng Quc phng Nga Sergei Shoigu(T) bt tay tng Phng Quang Thanh ti H

Ni hm 05 thng 03 nm 2013AFP photo

B trng Quc phng Nga, Sergei Shoigu va c chuyn thm chnh thc Vit Nam t ngy4 n ngy 5 thng 3. Nhn chuyn thm ny, B trng Quc phng Nga cng n thmcng Cam Ranh, vn l cn c hi qun ca Nga trc kia. Vit H c cuc phng vnchuyn gia ng Nam , Gio s Carl Thayer thuc hc vin Quc phng c.

Hp tc qun s Vit Nga

Trc ht, ni v hp tc qun s Nga Vit thi gian qua, Gio s Carl Thayer nhn xt:

"Vo thng 11 nm 1978, hai nc k hip c quc phng v hp tc qun s trong vng25 nm. Sau th Vit Nam xm lc Campuchia, ri Nga c vo Cam Ranh. Nm 1991,Lin X sp v v nhng kh khn v kinh t Nga c gng p Vit Nam phi tr nhngmn n vi Lin X c, th l Vit Nam i tin cho thu Cam Ranh v Lin bang Nga quyt nh rt khi y. T n nay Vit Nam k n 9 tha thun i tc chin lcvi cc nc khc, cc nc ln, u tin l Nga vo nm 2001, 11 nm sau , c nngcp thnh hp tc i tcton din.

Theo ti c bit l do nguyn nhn Nga bn rt nhiu v kh cho Vit Nam. Hin VitNam l 1 trong 10 th trng nhp khu v kh ln nht ca Nga. Tm li, hp tc kinh t hainc c lc ln xung v ch yu trong du kh, cn hp tc quc phng Vit Nam lun phthuc vo cng ngh v kh ca Lin X trc kia v gi l Nga. Cho nn ti c th ni vicVit Nam mua nhiu v kh t Nga l nguyn nhn chnh a quan h hp tc quc phnghai nc ln tm chin lc.

Vit H:Vit Nam cng c hp tc qun s vi Trung Quc v M, s khc bit gia quanh vi Nga so vi cc nc Trung Quc v M l g?


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C hai kh nng m ta phi ni ti. Hi qun Nga lin tc a ra cc bo co v kh nngquay li Cam Ranh nu h mun trong khi gii lnh o Maxcova lin tc ni khng vkhng c tin.- GS. Carl Thayer

GS. Carl Thayer:Cc mi quan h ny c mc tiu khc nhau. Quan h hp tc qun s viM da vo bn ghi nh ca hai bn trn 5 lnh vc, tc l mi hp tc ny khng ln cao,ch l cc i thoi cp cao, cc hp tc v y t, tm kim cu h Vi Trung Quc miquan hhp tc ch yu l tun tra chung trn vnh Bc B, v c th l thit lp ng dynng gia hai B Quc Phng, v trao i o to nhn s. Tuy nhin vi Nga, bi v Vit

Nam mua mt s lng ln v kh ca Nga, Vit Nam gi nhiu ngi sang Nga c oto s dng bo dng, v sa cha cc thit b ny. Nga l nc cung cp v kh hng ucho Vit Nam hn hn so vi M v Trung Quc. M ch c th bn cho Vit nam mt sloi v kh khng st thng do nhng cm vn v v kh, v vic bn v kh ny cng chac ci thin v tnh hnh nhn quyn Vit Nam.

Trung Quc bn cho Vit Nam cc v kh hng nh nh n dc, nhng Vit Nam gicng c nhng x nghip t sn xut cc v kh ny. Cho nn 3 hp tc ny l rt khc

bit. i vi Nga lvic o to nhng k thut vin cho vic s dng, bo tr v kh v bnv kh cho Vit nam vi s lng ln. M ch yu l vn v nh hng an ninh chnh tr,vi Trung Quc cng vy. Mi quan h vi M v Trung Quc mc song song, c hai u nng ln mc i thoi cp th trng Quc phng.

Nga s tr li Cam Ranh?

Vit H:B trng Quc phng Nga cng n

thm vnh Cam Ranh, ni vn l cn c hi qunca Nga trc kia. C nhiu n on cho rngNga s tr li Cam Ranh nhng cng c kincho rng khng th. ng nhn nh th no v khnng Vit Nam cho php hi qun nc ngoing cn c ti Cam Ranh?

GS. Carl Thayer:C hai kh nng m ta phi niti. Hi qun Nga lin tc a ra cc bo co v kh nng quay li Cam Ranh nu h muntrong khi gii lnh o Maxcova lin tc ni khng v khng c tin. l mt kha cnh.Th hai l vo nm 2004 v 2009 Vit Nam a ra sch trng Quc phng v c hai sch

trng ny u ni r l khng c hi qun nc no c vo ng Vit Nam. Vo khongcui nm 2009 u 2010, gii chc Vit Nam ni l cc c s thng mi cng Cam Ranhs c m ca cho hi qun cc nc nhng khng v mc ch qun s. M l nc utin c tu n y sa, nhng ch mc nh khong 500 ngn la mt ln sa.

Sau khi Vit Nam t mua 6 tu ngm kilo, Vit Nam phi c ni tu, v Cam Ranh lcn c hi qun ca Nga trc kia, l ni tu ngm ca Vit Nam. V vy Vit Nam ngh Nga nng cp cc thit b y cung cp cc tr gip k thut cho mc ch ny. Tnm 2014 n nm 2016 Vit nam s nhn nhng tu ngm ny. C Nga v Trung Quc u gi tu chng hi tc n vnh Aden, cc tu ny i nhng chng di qua eo binMalacca, bin ng ri tr v Trung Quc v cng Vladivostok vng vin ng Nga.


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Tng Trng Quc phng Hoa K Leon Panetta n thm cng Cam Ranh hm 03/6/2012.AFP photo

Trung Quc mun gi tu n thm Cam Ranh v Nga cng lm nh vy trong qukh, nhng Vit Nam vn cha cho tu hi qun nc ngoi n thm Cam Ranh. Cc quan

chc Vit nam ni khi m phn viNga v vic gip Vit Nam nng cp cc c s hiqun, Vit Nam s cho Nga nhng i x c bit v lc th hai nc cha thnh i tcchin lc, bi Nga phi gi tu vo y a cc thit b, v k thut vin v k s chomc ch ny. Ti nghi ng kh nng Nga s ng qun y. Mc d vy, vnh Cam Ranhrt c gi tr khng th b qua. Bt c tu no i qua bin ng cng cn sa cha nh, M sa my lnh, ng dn v h thng cung cp nc ti y, v Nga cng th. Nhng chon lc ny chac nc no c th a tu qun s vo thm chnh thc y.

Vit H:Nga l nc bn v kh qun s ln nht cho Vit Nam v Trung Quc, nhng ngc ni rng Nga gii hn vic bn v kh cho Trung Quc v Trung Quc nh cp cngngh ca Nga, liu y c phi l li th cho Vit Nam?

GS. Carl Thayer: Nga v tr tuytvi khi h bn SU 27 Sukhoi v SU 30 cho c vit Namv Trung Quc nhng Trung Quc c mt nn cng nghip quc phng rt ln, v sau sk giy php sn xut chng trong nc v Nga lm. Cn Vit Nam th qu nh v mt ngh nh vy cha tin n u. Sau Trung Quc s dng k s iu nghin cccng ngh ca Nga v p dng chng trong mt lot cc thit b ca mnh nh my bay, tuchin.

Cc nh phn tch Nga sau xem cc hnh nh v phn tch thy Trung Quc ly cc tng ny tu. Sau c tin l Nga gii hn bn v kh cho Trung Quc, gii hn mts cc cng ngh c tnh nhy cm, v Nga mun kim tin trn cc cng ngh ca mnh. V

pha Vit Nam th lm sao Trung Quc c th phn i mt cch cng khai khi m h cngma cng mt loi cng ngh.

Ti nghi ng kh nng Nga s ng qun y. Mc d vy, vnh Cam Ranh rt c gi trkhng th b qua.Nhng cho n lc ny cha c nc no c th a tu qun s vo thmchnh thc y.- GS. Carl Thayer

C hai u mua my bay chin u SU 30, cng mua tu ngm hng kilo. Trung Quc dkhng chnh thc cng phi lo lng v h bit cng ngh ca Nga hiu qu th no. Mc d

Vit Nam khng th tn cng hi qun Trung Quc v thng nhng nu c xy ra xung tth Vit Nam cth gy thit hi khng nh cho i phng.

Vit H:Vit Nam c vai tr quan trng th no i vi Nga trong chin lc ca nc nyti khu vc chu Thi Bnh Dng?

GS. Carl Thayer:Hai nc nhn nhau nh l i tc hp tc chin lc mt phn bi v vng vin ng ca Lin X c v Nga by gi vic vn chuyn du kh c th c thchin d dng bng ng bin n Vladivostok hn l trn cn. Nga cn tin c th lm cctrao i bun bn vi Vit Nam, mt s trao i bng hng nh du c, v hngnng sn vv vy rt linh hot.


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Nga mun mt th gii a cc v khng mun M chim v tr thng soi ; ri Nga cng cnhng quan ngi nht nh vi Trung Quc, c bit l tnh hnh ngi nhp c bt hp php vng vin ng Nga. Nhng c hai nc u c th iu chnh mi quan h ca mnh. Mcd vy Nga s khng hp tc vi Trung Quc chng li M. Mt khc Nga cng lun nil h mun tr li pha ng, tc l ng , nhng h cn tin.

Du kh ca Nga cung cp cho h mt khon tin ng k nhng s l qu ng khi ni rnghi qun Nga s c mt hng hu trong khu vc. Ngay c khi thi chin tranh lnh nhim, s hin din ca hi qun Nga cng rt hn ch, mt phn l bi n l mt i tcchnh vi Nga, v tu ca Nga thng n n ,Vit Nam l ni dng chn thun tin trnng.

Vit Nam l ni cung cp tin ln cho Nga, c bit l trong lnh vc du kh, v Nga cngc quyn li su y phi bo v cc u t ca mnh cc vng m Trung quc cha tosc p. Mc khc Nga cng mun c t do hng hi trong khu vc nh hi qun cc nckhc. V vy Trung Quc phi cn thn khng cn tr cc tu ca Nga v nu khng h s

gp phi tnh hung nh vi hi qun M, Nht hay c. iu ny gy kh khn hn vi vici ch quyn ca Trung Quc trn vng bin nhng khng lin quan n cc o v bi vn khng c g lin quan n Nga.

Vit H:Xin cm n ng dnh cho chng ti bui phng vn ny

thayer vietnam: russian defence minister bears arms

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