thayer power point slides for vietnam relations with china and the us paper

8/8/2019 Thayer Power Point Slides for Vietnam Relations with China and the US Paper

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Vietnams Relations with

China & the United States

Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to International Conference on the

Role of Vietnam in the Asia-Pacific

December 10, 2010


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linlin

. e nam s ang ng or ew2. Vietnam-China Relations

3. Vietnam-United States Relations

4. Comparative Defence Relations: China &

USA

5. Conclusions


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1 h n in rl i1 h n in rl i

Antagonistic contradictions between

soc a sm an cap a sm

who will trium h over whom/friendsand enemies

em er o soc a s camp e y

Global inte ration e uals assimilation


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ang ng or ews

u t - rect ona ore gn po cy

friend and reliable partner with allcountr es n t e wor

Comprehensive security


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rm liz i nrm liz i nChina-Vietnam United States-Vietnam

Cambodian Conflict 1979-91

1990-91 Normalization

Vietnam War 1965-75

1994 trade embargo lifted

1999-2000 Comprehensive

Cooperation in the New

1995 Normalization

2001 Bilateral Trade Agrm.

2005 bilateral defenceconsultations

2004 annual defencedialogue

2008 strategic partners

2009 strategic cooperative

uneAgreement and intelligencesharing

partnership s o t ca , ecur ty

and Defense Dialogue


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2. Vietnam and Risin ChinaM r

Asymmery

Viet Nam

c now e ge

ment of China

Acknowledgement ofVietnamsautonomy


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Vietnams 3 Strate iesRelegatecontentiousissuesto

technical

working

groups

Promotemultilateral

efforts

Selfhelp

develop

defence

capacity


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Longterm

greements

JointSteering

CommitteeDefence ties

HighlevelEconomic

statevisits


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Bil r l IBil r l I


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e ence e apere ence e aper

out east s a: as ca y sta e secur ty

situation

Potential risks of conflict still remain

err tor a sputes over an an sea

have been more complicated, in

part cu ar t ose re at ng to sovere gntyand national interests in the East Sea

ave een on t e r se


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Maritime Strategy

owar s e ear


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$11billion

deficit

Economicand

Trade

9billion

Relations

surpluswiththe


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i n m- R l i n


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EconomicEconomic--Political RelationsPolitical Relations

2006 Bilateral human rights talks resumed 2006 U.S. grants PNTR status, approves Vietnams

WTO membership

2006 President Bush attends APEC Summit in Hanoi

President Nguyen Minh Triet visits U.S. (6/07),

r me n ster guyen an ung v s ts . .

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung attends Nuclear

Safety Summit (4/2010)


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e ence e a onse ence e a ons

Exchanges of Defence Ministers, ,

Political, Security and Defense Dialogue (2008) tate ore gn a rs

Defense Policy Dialogue (August 2010)

Deputy Assistant Secretary-Vice Minister


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4. Com arative Defence RelationsThree Nos

1. No military alliances

2. No foreign military bases on

3. No use of third countries to combat

another country


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Hi hHi h--L lL l D f nD f n i ii i

China-Vietnam

United States-Vietnam

-Vietnamese DefenceMinister and two return

visits by Chinese Defence

2000-10 two v s ts y U.S.

Secretary of Defense and

two visits by Vietnamese

Equal exchanges by chiefs ofGeneral Staff, GPD and 1994-2010: nine visits by

Commander U.S. Pacific

Exchanges by MilitaryRegion Commanders

Command


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Com arative Defence RelationsCom arative Defence Relations

Naval port visits

Professional Military Education and Training

Other defence cooperation

National defence industry


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Vietnam-China StrategicCooperation

2005 April 1

st

security and defence consultations

2005 October A reement on oint naval atrols in the

Gulf of Tonkin

2006 November 2nd securit and defence consultations

2007 August Border Defence Cooperation Agrm.

2009 September 3rd security and defence consultations

2010 November 1st Strategic Defence Security

Dialogue


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Vietnam-U.S. StrategicCooperation

Attended meeting of Proliferation Security Initiative

held in New Zealand

2004 Attended CHOD meeting (Asia-Pacific Chiefs of

Defence for first time Tok o

U.S. Global Threat Reduction Initiative

Shangri-La Dialogue (2008) US Chairman JCS met with Vietnam representative


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.

1. How is Vietnam responding to the rise

2. Why is Vietnam recalibrating itsrelations with the United States?

. as the Asian century unfolds?


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ASEAN Defence Ministers Plus 8ASEAN Defence Ministers Plus 8

China

USARussia

ewZealand

ustra a

JapanSouthKorea

India


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Plus USA & Russia


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.April 2009

Command December 2009

USS George Washington Aug 2010USS George H.W. Bush Aug 2010


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Vietnams Strate ic Si nificance

.

2. Emerging middle income country

3. Gradual defence modernisation

4. Key player in ASEAN

. 6. Potential strate ic artner of US


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Vietnams Relations with

na e n e a es

Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to International Conference on the

Role of Vietnam in the Asia-PacificDecember 10, 2010

thayer power point slides for vietnam relations with china and the us paper

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