thayer vietnam's defence diplomacy 2005
TRANSCRIPT
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Vietnams Defence Diplomacy
Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Director, UNSW Defence Studies Forum
Presentation to Asia-Pacific Seminar Series
UNSW@ADFA
September 12, 2005
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Overview
1. Strategic Defence Dimension2. Defence Diplomacy, 1990-20043. Defence Cooperation4. Procurements and Defence Industry
Cooperation
5.
Defence Relations with China andthe United States
6. Conclusion
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Government Spending on Defence
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2. Defence Diplomacy
Cold War alignments USSR, Warsaw Pact states, China, Cuba
Non-Aligned Movement Burma, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Laos,
Yugoslavia
Defence relations with more than 60countries (2003)
33 Defence Attaches accredited 22 Defence Attaches posted
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High-Level Exchanges
Ministerial level (MND) Chief of the General Staff (CGS) Political General Department (GPD) Logistics Department (GLD)
Deputy Minister Service Chiefs
Army, Navy, Air
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A Note on Sources
Russian Federation, Belgium, Thailand
North Korea, Laos, Germany
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Major Categories of Exchanges
Chart 1 High-Level Exchanges 1990-05
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MND CGS GPD GLD SC
Type of Delegation
NumberofVis
its
To Vietnam
From Vietnam
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Trends in High-Level Exchanges
Chart 2 High Level Exchanges 1990-2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year
NumberofVisits
To Vietnam From Vietnam
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Defence and GDP Growth
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Density of High-Level Exchanges
44% ASEAN
20% Traditional Allies
17% Major Powers
China, United States, Japan
8% New Europe
11 % Other Asia, Africa, Middle Eastand Latin America and Others
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Density of Defence Exchanges
44 - Laos 17 - India 11 - Singapore 6 - Italy Malaysia Ukraine
36 - China 15 - Philippines 10 - Australia France Indonesia
4 - Poland Slovak
26 - Thailand 13 - Russia 9 - Japan8 - Cuba 3 - Algeria Belgium
Brunei22 - Cambodia 12 - United
States 7 - Myanmar
N Korea
S KoreaAngola,Belarus,Bulgaria, Congo
R, Mozambique,
Netherlands, UK
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Military Diplomacy
Accrediting of Defence Attaches Protocol visits Staff College/National Defence Instituteexchanges Goodwill visits
External Relations DepartmentSong and Dance Ensemble
Naval ship visits
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Naval Ship Visits, 1990-2005
7 India 6 Australia 5 France 5 United Kingdom 4 Thailand 3 South Korea 3 United States 2 Italy
2 Malaysia 2 Russia 1 Canada 1 China 1 Indonesia 1 Japan 1 New Zealand
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Memorandum of Understanding
Annual work plans exchange of visits, training, strategic dialogue, etc.
Address specific bilateral issues Border security (land and maritime) MIA repatriation; Cam Ranh Bay
Combined military activities Medical research Search and Rescue Coordinated naval patrols
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Defence Cooperation Agreements
Laos special solidarity andcomprehensive cooperation
internal security,border control, MIAs China border security
Military Region commanders Thailand maritime security Cambodia border security, MIAs
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Defence Cooperation Agreements
India (1994 and 2000)
Russia (October 1998) Australia post-1999 United States (October 1996) Other DCAs
Bulgaria, Belgium, South Korea andGermany
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4. Procurement and
Defence Industry Cooperation
Spare Parts Storage Repair and Maintenance Refurbishment and Upgrading Education and Training Research and Development National Defence Industry cooperation Acquisition of new capabilities
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Sales and Servicing Contracts
Russian Federation (1994, 1998, 2003)Ukraine (2002)India (2002)Europe - Bulgaria, Czech, Finland,
Poland
ASEAN States SingaporeOther Suppliers Israel, North Korea
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Government Defence Expenditure
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Air Force Modernization
Upgrade and modernise MiG-21and Su-22fighter/ground attack aircraft
Su-30 preferred air superiority fighterFunding a major constraintMay opt for less expensive Su-22
Upgrade of Su-27s and Su-30s with beyondvisual range air-to-air missiles
Military communications satellite?
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Czech L-39C Trainers
Nine purchased in 1992 and ten more in 2003
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Su-22 M4Fitter
Upgraded1994-98 in
Russia and
2005 inUkraine
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10-12 Su-27s purchased in 1994
Su-27 UBK Flanker
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MiG-21FishbedUpgrades
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4 Su-30 MKKsFulcrums 2003
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PZL M-28 Skytruck
Tenordered
from
Polandin 2003
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PZL SwidnikW-3 SAR
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Air Defence
S-300PMU1
2003
(SA-10Grumble)
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Naval Modernisation
Protect offshore oil and gas claims Anti-shipping capability
Match extended naval reach in South ChinaSea by other claimant countries
Anti-submarine warfareCounter threat of Chinese submarines
Mines counter-measures capability
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Deterrence
capability inSouth China
Sea
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TarantulClass (Type 1241)
4 acquiredfrom
Russia in
1996-98
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Tarantul3 Corvette
TwoMolnya
1241.8 FAC (M)
delivered in 2005,
eight to be
assembled in
Vietnam
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Anti-shipping Capability
Styx Missile
Sunburn
missile
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BPS 500 Fast Attack Craft (M)
2 acquired1998. BPS
500 now
under
production
in Vietnam
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KBO 2000 Corvette
Project 2100 Recently Cancelled
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Yugo-Class Midget Submarine
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Land Force Modernisation
Main Battle TanksFinland 70 (T-54 and T-55)
Poland (150 T-72)
Multiple Rocket Launch SystemCzech
Upgrade U.S. era M113 APCsSingapore?
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T-54/55 Main Battle Tank
850 T-54-55 and 350 Chinese Type-59 Main Battle Tanks
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Grad Multiple Rocket Launcher
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Short Range Ballistic Missiles?
Scud C ballistic missileReportedly sold by
North Korea
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Sea
Control
Singapore
Strategic
Strike
Seize
Territory
South-East Asia: Developing Military Capability to 2015
Legend: PoorFair
GoodVery Good
Serious shortcomings in ability to meet roles and tasks.Can meet some roles and tasks but has some shortcomings.Can meet most roles and tasks at a basic level.Can meet all roles and tasks comprehensively.
2015 Changing colour shows development from 2003 through to 2015.2003
Defend
TerritoryConstabulary
Malaysia
ThailandIndonesia
Philippines
Vietnam
Burma
BruneiCambodia
Laos
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5. Defence Relations with China
and the United States China
Normalisation of diplomatic relations (1991)
Long-term Cooperative Framework (1999)
looking to the future, boosting good neighborlyfriendship and exploring all-around collaboration
U.S. Recovery of Missing-in-Action (MIA) remainsNormalisation of diplomatic relations (1995) Visit by Prime Minister to U.S. (2005)
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Defence Relations with China
First round of consultations on defensivesecurity (Beijing, April 2005)
Chinese Commission for Science,Technology and National Defence Industrydelegation visits Hanoi (July)
General Phung Quang Thanh, CGS, visitsBeijing (July)
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Ministerial Exchange Visits
Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen, Hanoi, March2000 and Defence Minister Pham Van Tra, Washington,
November 2003
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U.S. Naval Port Visits
USS Curtis
Wilbur,Da Nang,
July 2004
USS Gary,
Saigon, March
2005
USS Vandegrift,
Saigon,
November 2003
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Defence Relations with the U.S.
15th Asia-Pacific Military Medicine Conferenceheld in Hanoi co-sponsored by Vietnam andthe U.S. (May 2005)
Assistant Secretary of Defense forInternational Security Affairs, Peter Rodman,
visits Hanoi (June)
Prime Minister Phan Van Khai visitsWashington, D.C. and meets with PresidentGeorge Bush ( June 21)
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6. Conclusion
Bringing the Military Back In Military as important domestic political actor Potential regional role Priority on naval and air modernisation
South China Sea contingencies Rise of China
balancing bandwagoning hierarchy norm building and regional identity
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Vietnams Defence Diplomacy
Discussion
Questions and Answers
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Military Capability
Maritime Capabilities Maritime Patrol - 48 assorted vessels Anti-Surface Warfare - 13 ships with SSMs Maritime Land Strike - no real capability Anti-Submarine Warfare - no real capability Maritime Air Defence - no ability to coordinate Amphibious Lodgment/Marine Forces Mine Warfare - 10 assorted vessels
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Military Capability
Land CapabilitiesInfantry Forces - 58 Inf DivisionsCombined Arms Ground Forces
3 Mech Inf and 10 Armoured Div, 10 ArtyBde,
Special ForcesLand Force C3I(Command, Control,
Communications and Intelligence)Reserves
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Military Capability
Air Capabilities
Air Defence - MiG-21, SA-2/3 SAMsAA-2/8/10 air to air missiles
Long Range Strike - Su-27, Su-30Close Air Support - Su-22M seriesTransport - An-2, An-26, Yak-40
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Military Capability
Other CapabilitiesChemical and Biological
suspected Saren and mustard gas (1991) Scud B/C Short Range Ballistic Missiles
Information or Knowledge Warfare SIGINTELINT
Radiological and Nuclear (none)